Biden’s China Policy Gets ASEAN Cold Shoulder

June 17th, 2021 by Richard Javad Heydarian

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US President Joseph Biden has been relatively successful in corralling Western allies against China, with the recently concluded G7 Summit culminating in a series of global initiatives to counter Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, vaccine diplomacy and rising maritime assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific.

The same, however, cannot be said about Southeast Asia, where Biden’s China policy has so far garnered at best lukewarm support.

During the latest round of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defense Ministers’ Meeting, virtually hosted by Brunei, regional defense chiefs called for “self-restraint” and the conclusion of a Code of Conduct (COC) among competing claimant states in the South China Sea.

But despite China’s rapidly expanding military and paramilitary presence across the disputed waters, the regional body once again demurred from directly mentioning Beijing’s recent aggressive actions that have raised diplomatic hackles in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Meanwhile, during the ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers Meeting last week, Southeast Asian diplomats were quick to hail the “ASEAN-China partnership” and “very effective” cooperation between both sides.

America’s greatest source of frustration, however, is likely its regional treaty allies, most especially the Philippines.

After almost two weeks of diplomatic dilly-dallying, Manila announced that it has suspended the abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) anew, shutting down earlier hopes of the crucial defense deal’s full renewal following months of tough bilateral negotiations.

The VFA provides the legal framework for large-scale joint exercises and America’s military presence in the Philippines on a rotational basis.

The pact’s continuation is seen as pivotal to America’s future response to China’s militarization of the South China Sea, leveraging the Philippines’ jutting strategic position in the waterway. The US was previously involved in building up a base on the island of Palawan.

Philippine and US Marines during a surface-to-air missile simulation as part of exercise KAMANDAG on October 10, 2019. Photo: Lance Cpl. Brienna Tuck / US Marine Corps

The lingering uncertainty over Philippine-US defense cooperation has thrown a spanner in Washington’s works, as the Biden administration struggles to fully optimize the century-old alliance against China’s maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea, seen by many analysts as a pivotal theater in the superpowers’ intensifying rivalry.

Following an 11th hour multi-stakeholders meeting this week, Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin announced a further six months suspension of the scheduled abrogation of the VFA, which would have otherwise expired by August.

“The president conveyed to us his decision to extend the suspension of the abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement by another six months while he studies and both sides further address his concerns regarding particular aspects of the agreement,” announced the chief Philippine diplomat.

Locsin clarified that the latest decision provides President Rodrigo Duterte, who initiated the pact’s abrogation amid human rights disagreements with Washington last year,  an opportunity for further “studies” and “address[ing] his concerns regarding, particular aspects of the agreement.”

The decision to defer the VFA’s full restoration was largely anticlimactic. Weeks earlier, Philippine Ambassador to Washington, Jose Manuel Romualdez, had indicated without providing many details that the agreement was “improved” in order to become more “acceptable” and “mutually beneficial” to both countries.

“A lot of time has been spent by both countries to discuss some of the things that they wanted to improve in that agreement…. We’re very confident that it will pull through,” Romualdez said during a joint press conference with the US Embassy in Manila earlier this month.

“The VFA is very important for the MDT (Mutual Defense Treaty) to be operational and give it a little more teeth actually. We’ve had it for a number of years and we’re very hopeful, hopefully confident that the president will approve the continuance of the VFA,” the Philippine envoy added.

The Filipino diplomat emphasized the importance of the alliance with Washington granting up to US$690.5 million worth of military assistance over the past five years. He also highlighted Washington’s decision to place the Philippines among the first countries to receive American-made Covid-19 vaccines by the end of June.

For his part, the US embassy chargé d’affaires John Law hailed “very productive, very good conversations” between the two allies, and told reporters that “some very specific proposals related to how we can clarify and strengthen the implementation of the VFA” were already addressed during the negotiations.

Both the Pentagon and Philippine defense establishment still welcomed the suspension of the defense deal’s abrogation.

“The Department welcomes the government of the Philippines’ decision to again suspend termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

“We value the Philippines as an equal, sovereign partner in our bilateral alliance. Our partnership contributes not only to the security of our two nations, but also strengthens the rules-based order that benefits all nations in the Indo-Pacific,” he said.

Earlier, US Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kenneth Wilsbach admitted, how the absence of a VFA “restricts what I can do in the Philippines.”

Philippine Defense Secretary Defense Delfin Lorenzana, a former defense attache in Washington, expressed his department’s support since it gives the Filipino president more time to “further review the pros and cons of the VFA” to “arrive at an informed decision on the matter.”

“Our bilateral cooperation with the US is geared towards upholding our national interest and to the extent necessary to enhance the Philippines’ defense capability,” he added, making clear his preference for the restoration of the VFA under improved and mutually beneficial conditions.

This means the next deadline for renewal of the defense pact will be in December. The Filipino president is expected to meet Biden on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Brunei in November.

So far, neither side has provided details as to the specific areas of disagreement. But the Filipino president will likely leverage the VFA to extract further concessions, especially as he enters his twilight months in office with new elections due in mid-2022.

It’s unlikely that Washington will grant any major political concessions to the outgoing Filipino president, who confronts the possibility of international investigations over his human rights record.

But the Biden administration has tried to win over its Southeast Asian ally by, among others, designating the Philippines as a priority for Covid-19 vaccine donations as well as granting up to $40 million in US foreign military financing for the next fiscal year.

By all indications, wooing the broader region will be even more difficult for Washington.

Last week, China hosted the latest rounds of bilateral meetings with ASEAN foreign ministers in person, in the southwestern Chinese city of Chongqing. In contrast, the Biden administration has yet to hold a single high-level meeting with its Southeast Asian counterparts.

During the ASEAN-China meeting, both sides largely downplayed their differences, including over the South China Sea disputes. Instead, they emphasized areas of common concern and cooperation

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi praised China’s large-scale vaccine provision to the region, including to her country and called for closer cooperation amid the still-raging pandemic.

“Beyond the issue of vaccines, the Asean-China partnership in building health resilience regionally is also important,” she said.

Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan was even more upbeat, praising “very effective” cooperation between the two sides. Deeply encouraged by the cordial exchanges, China’s Foreign Ministry hailed the meeting as a chance for both sides to “transform their contradictions into cooperation.”

During the ASEAN defense ministers meeting, however, the South China Sea disputes took center stage.

While calling for “self-restraint in the conduct of activities” and urging claimant states to “avoid actions that could complicate or escalate the situation,” ASEAN once again demurred from directly criticizing or even naming China.

Adopting a broadly diplomatic language no doubt approved by Beijing, Southeast Asian defense chiefs instead generically emphasized the importance of “the maintenance and promotion of peace, security, stability, safety and freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea.”

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Featured image: US President Joe Biden and Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte are wrestling over the renewal of a key security pact. Image: Twitter/Rappler

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Indonesia says it will begin retiring coal-fired power plants for good — while still continuing to build more than a hundred new ones, in the latest mixed message from one of the last coal-friendly countries in the world.

PLN, the state-owned power utility, which has a monopoly on the national grid, announced late May that it plans to completely abandon coal by 2055.

“We are scheduling the retirement of our coal-fired power plants to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060,” PLN deputy CEO Darmawan Prasodjo said in an online event May 28.

He said the retirement plan is a directive from President Joko Widodo and has been agreed on by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources as well as the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment.

“This is a battle that we can’t lose,” Darmawan said. “The survival of humankind depends on the action that we are taking today.”

A day earlier, Luhut Pandjaitan, the coordinating minister for investments, had declared fossil fuels a global “common enemy” during an online investment forum. Luhut himself maintains a stake in a coal mining company.

Coal-fired power plant in Indramayu, West Java, Indonesia. Image by Bkusmono/Wikimedia Commons.

‘A contradiction’

In the first stage of its plan, PLN says it will retire three coal and gasified-coal power plants, with a combined capacity of 1.1 gigawatts, by 2030. In the next stage, from 2030 to 2055, it will retire 49 GW of coal power plants.

At the same time, the utility and the various independent power producers it works with are still on track to build 117 new coal fired-power plants. As of 2020, there were 11.8 GW of coal plants under construction in the country, according to a 2020 report by EndCoal. That’s part of the total 21 GW of coal capacity still to come online, which includes planned plants for which financing has been secured, according to PLN’s Darmawan.

These new plants will churn out 107 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, according to Andri Prasetiyo, a researcher at Trend Asia, an NGO that focuses on clean energy transition. And with plants typically operating for 35 to 40 years, it’s likely Indonesia will still have a large fleet of coal plants running in 2060 or even 2065, despite what PLN says.

“Meanwhile, coal-fired power plants have to totally cease to operate by 2050 in order to achieve the global target of net-zero emissions to tackle the climate crisis,” Andri said.

These new coal plants will also make it even harder for renewables to compete with coal, according to Tata Mustasya, climate and energy campaign coordinator at Greenpeace Indonesia. Coal accounts for 60% of Indonesia’s energy mix, compared to less than 1% for solar and wind combined.

Tata called the plan to phase out coal plants while still building new ones “a contradiction,” as it will effectively eliminate the space for renewable energy in the next three to four decades.

Coal mine in Indonesia. Photo credit: Rhett A. Butler

Caught by surprise

On its own, however, the announcement by PLN has caught experts and activists, who have been campaigning for Indonesia to transition to clean and renewable energy for years — to no avail — off guard.

“We are surprised,” Pamela Simamora, a research coordinator at the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), a Jakarta-based think tank, told Mongabay.

She called the move a dramatic shift in the government’s energy policy, which has long been characterized by an overreliance on coal and generous subsidies for miners and power plant operators.

“It’s true that the last one to two months marks a 180-degree turn [on energy policy],” Pamela said. “This is thanks to the international community, which has also pushed the government [to phase out coal]. Indonesia might be afraid to be branded as not ambitious enough and to not have commitment for [tackling] climate change.”

Adhityani Putri, executive director of Cerah, a local advocacy group pushing for a clean energy transition, said the sudden change might come from growing awareness that it doesn’t make economic sense to keep supporting a dying industry like coal, which international investors are increasingly shunning.

“The dramatic change of political narrative is really brought about by the realization that fossil fuel financing, especially for coal power plants as well as financing for coal mining, is quickly drying up,” Adhityani said as quoted by Bloomberg. “All this pressure leveled against coal is starting to be felt within elite circles.”

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the decline of the coal industry, with the crisis showing that renewable energy is cheaper for consumers and a safer bet for investors. Recently, the G7 group of richest countries, including the U.S. and Japan, agreed to stop international financing of coal projects by the end of 2021. And South Korea, one of the biggest funders of coal power plants in Indonesia, is pulling out of the business as well.

‘Net-zero, not zero’

Pamela called the shift by PLN “a breath of fresh air,” but said the rhetoric should be backed by meaningful action.

“It’s not enough for investors. What they need is certainty, because a breath of fresh air doesn’t always last long,” she said.

That means legislating the new policy of a clean energy transition into law, given that the government still doesn’t have a unified, definitive stance on the matter, with opinions differing among officials and agencies, Pamela said.

“There are differences in [official] road maps and statements. This creates confusion for us who work in the sector, and for the public: which one should we follow?” she said.

A case in point: while Luhut, the coordinating minister for investments, has branded fossil fuels a “common enemy,” the assistant deputy for energy in his ministry, Rida Yasser, has tempered calls for a complete coal phase-out.

He said not all coal-fired power plants would need to be shut down to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

“Yes, we need to phase out coal, but our target is net-zero [emissions], not zero emissions,” he said in the May 28 event alongside PLN’s Darmawan. “As long as net-zero is achieved, why do we need to throw away our investments [in coal plants] that haven’t seen a return yet?”

Rida said said shutting down plants before recouping their cost would be a waste of money if net-zero emissions are already achieved.

Pamela said this kind of thinking fails to see that phasing out coal is not just an environmental issue, but also an economic issue. Indonesia’s continued use of coal could see its other exports to the European Union hit by a planned border adjustment carbon tax, for instance, Pamela said. The scheme, which the EU is still considering, would levy a tax on the carbon emissions associated with imported goods.

“So our products will be more expensive and less competitive,” Pamela said. “And renewables will become much cheaper than coal. As a result, our energy subsidy will balloon and our production will have the highest cost because the energy [in our country] is more expensive. So it’s not only about the environment, but also the economy. And this is not emphasized enough.”

The Cilacap coal power plant is located near a port for local fishermen. Image by Tommy Apriando/Mongabay-Indonesia.

Lack of a unified message

There’s also no consensus from the government on the deadline for Indonesia to achieve carbon neutrality. While Indonesia’s environment ministry says 2070 is the most realistic scenario for net-zero emissions, the country’s development planning ministry, Bappenas, says that if Indonesia can achieve the goal sooner, by 2045 or 2050, the country would reap economic benefits due to higher productivity and lower externalities.

Luhut has also said Indonesia should aim for an earlier deadline, possibly 2050.

Central to this lack of a unified message from the government is the fact that President Joko Widodo hasn’t spoken publicly on the matter, according to Pamela. During an online global leaders’ summit in April hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden, Widodo notably didn’t give a date for Indonesia’s net-zero goals — even as his Brazilian counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro, notorious for his anti-environment rhetoric and actions, used the event to declare Brazil is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050.

“That’s what’s important for the president to do, to give a public statement on the deadline and time frame,” Pamela said. “So when there’s a clear voice from the highest office, the policies at the lower levels can be synchronized.”

She said the transition away from coal and other fossil fuels is inevitable.

“The world has been moving toward a low-carbon economy,” she said. “So whether we like it or not, we have to embrace it. Changes will certainly come.”

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Featured image: View of Suralaya coal power plant in Cilegon city, Banten Province, Indonesia. Image by Kasan Kurdi / Greenpeace.

Huawei’s HarmonyOS Aims at US Tech Dominance

June 10th, 2021 by David Goldman

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Huawei’s new Harmony operating system isn’t just a substitute for Google’s Android software for smartphones, industry experts say, but an ambitious effort to unify handsets and laptops with the internet of things and big data analysis.

The Chinese tech giant, shut out of the Android ecosystem by US sanctions, wants to lead the integration of mobile devices and personal computers with data centers and industrial robotics, autonomous vehicles, industrial robotics and smart logistics.

If Huawei’s program succeeds, billions of smartphones will link seamlessly to server farms, uploading real-time information to big data processing driven by artificial intelligence.

Western analysts believe that HarmonyOS is based on Linux, the open-source operating system now employed on more platforms than any other operating system.

Smartphone apps written in HarmonyOS will exchange data with cloud-based AI servers over high-speed broadband. The same software will control automobiles, industrial automation, smart home technology and other functions.

The potential pushes the envelope of imagination.

HarmonyOS can power a fitness tracker that takes pulse, temperature, blood oxygen levels, blood pressure and electrocardiograms in real time and upload the data to an AI server that flags individual health problems and checks billions of people for symptoms of epidemic disease.

It can integrate the travel plans of urban commuters with autonomous vehicles while controlling the traffic flow of entire cities.

“It will take five or ten years for the potential of Harmony to become evident,” Handel Jones, CEO of International Business Strategies, told Asia Times. Jones advises many large US and overseas technology companies.

“The key issue for Huawei is the adoption of Harmony in smartphones, tablets and notebooks, and I expect that Harmony will gain market share over time,” he said.

Huawei’s Chinese competitors in the handset market including Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo will support HarmonyOS among China’s 1.5 billion broadband subscribers, while continuing to use the Android system outside of China, Jones added.

Initial reception of the HarmonyOS operating system inside China has been positive, according to industry analysts. Users report that the new Huawei system extends battery life by about 10% over Android in the same handset.

“A key reason for all of China’s handset manufacturers to promote Harmony is support by the Chinese government, and China’s commitment to become independent of the US,” Jones added.”

In May 2019, the Trump administration imposed sanctions that stopped Huawei’s access to Google’s Android system. In early 2020, Washington also banned the sale of high-end computer chips that power Huawei’s top-of-the-line smartphones.

Huawei was the world’s top handset vendor in the second quarter of 2020, but fell to second place in the third quarter and is expected to rank seventh in 2021.

HarmonyOS had been under development for three years before the Trump sanctions, and Huawei accelerated its development in response to the US ban. The company’s consumer business shrank, but its network business accounted for 16.5% year-on-year growth in revenues in 2021’s first quarter.

Huawei meanwhile has diversified into cloud computing, automotive software, fintech, and industrial automation, among other fields. It remains the main provider of 5G infrastructure in China, despite US attempts to prevent it from obtaining the required computer chips.

American sanctions forbid the sale to Huawei of high-end computer chips made with American machinery or American chip design software – restrictions that cover almost all of the world’s output.

Semiconductor fabrication involves 200 separate industrial processes and American hardware and software are present in almost every semiconductor production line in the world.

One expert who requested anonymity speculates that “Huawei must be getting chips that it isn’t supposed to get” from Asian suppliers who ignore US sanctions. Asia Times could not independently confirm the claim.

Chinese industry sources told Asia Times last month that 5,000 dedicated industrial 5G networks already have been installed in China and that tens of thousands more will come on line during the next year. Huawei is a leading provider of automation software.

“Software is where the money is,” an industry analyst said. “The main processor that controls a vehicle costs about US$100. But Tesla charges $10,000 for its self-driving system. If you just make the processors, you can’t make that much money. But the software is very profitable. And China doesn’t want to depend on Tesla’s software.”

Huawei executives say that they never wanted to compete with Google over a smartphone operating system, but now have no choice. HarmonyOS may displace Google from the Chinese handset market, which accounted for a quarter of the world’s 325 million handset shipments in 2020.

HarmonyOS is also in a position to challenge Microsoft’s Windows operating system for laptops and tablets. A version for laptops is now under development, and it “might eliminate Windows,” one industry analyst told Asia Times. Microsoft earned about 10% of its $125 billion in 2020 revenues in China.

On the other hand, HarmonyOS will have little impact on the market for Android software outside of China, industry analysts say.

The greatest impact of HarmonyOS as an integrated platform for the whole range of digital products will be in China, IBS’s Jones believes. “China is already experimenting with technologies that will become a daily reality in a few years,” he said.

“In Chengdu,” a western Chinese city of 25 million people, “there is already a pilot program for autonomous vehicles, with one level for piloted vehicles and another for self-driving vehicles and that will come to Beijing and Shanghai soon.

“The whole ecosystem will change dramatically in five or ten years, and Harmony will support this change in the structure of society,” Jones concluded. “And China will do this independently of the US.”

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Pakistan and Russia in Gas Cooperation

June 10th, 2021 by Vladimir Danilov

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At the end of May, Russia and Pakistan signed a protocol on amending the tariffs of the intergovernmental agreement of October 16, 2015, to construct the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline (formerly North-South Gas Pipeline), which should follow through with actual implementation in July. The project will cost $2-2.5 billion. The 1,100 km long pipeline will connect the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in Karachi in southern Pakistan to Lahore in the north, enabling Pakistan to strengthen its energy security and increase the use of natural gas as an environmentally friendly energy source.

The construction of the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline remains the flagship project of cooperation between Russia and Pakistan in the energy sector. The pipeline will carry regasified LNG up to the north of Pakistan.

With a capacity of 12.4 billion cubic meters, the gas pipeline will receive gas from the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, which is also yet to be built.

Earlier, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Petroleum Nadeem Babar said that Pakistan would be represented by gas distribution companies Sui Southern Gas Co. and Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd, which have already started buying out land for the pipeline. The Russian side will carry out the construction work. As reported by The Express Tribune of Pakistan, Pakistan will make maximum use of Russian materials, equipment, and resources to develop the technical and operational capabilities of its own companies and human resources through joint work and team-building events.

According to experts, in the context of the construction of the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, Islamabad will draw off several gas supplies of the other markets, including the European market, where Russia’s position will begin to strengthen. This project differs significantly from other gas transmission projects in Russia, primarily because it does not involve direct supplies of Russian gas.  Russia acts as a contractor in this project.  For Russia, Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline is beneficial in several aspects. In particular, the more Pakistan will consume gas, the more this pipeline with the construction of the receiving LNG terminal will draw other suppliers here, primarily Qatar, which dominates in this region.  In this way, it will reduce the competition of Russian companies with Qatari companies in the European and Asian LNG markets and  with The Power of Siberia Gas Pipeline on the Chinese market.

As for the supply of Russian gas to Pakistan, it will be possible through exchange transactions with other countries, i.e. spot supplies, when companies exchange gas. In particular, Qatar will give gas to Novatek in Pakistan, and Novatek will give its gas to Qatar in Europe or Asia. In this way, the companies do not spend money on delivery, but fulfill their contractual obligations to their advantage.

Pakistan’s choice of Russian contractors was due to the fact that Russia has been building high-quality gas pipelines not only in the country, but also abroad, producing its own entire range of pipes and laying them itself for decades.  In the last 10 years alone, Gazprom has built Nord Stream, Nord Stream-2, TurkStream, and The Power of Siberia. Therefore, the good price offered by Russia to implement this project, along with the high quality of already confirmed work, inclined Islamabad to choose Moscow.

It is noteworthy that China, which invests billions of dollars in the Pakistani economy, is not participating in the new gas project. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1951, China and Pakistan have been linked by comprehensive cooperation, the basis of which in recent years has been the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The Chinese media points that since its official launch in April 2015, the CPEC has become one of the most popular projects of The Belt and Road Initiative, and Pakistan immediately received an investment of $25 billion from China. As for China’s non-participation in the construction of Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, this can be explained quite simply by its lack of experience and technology required to implement such a project.

Islamabad is particularly interested in the construction of the gas pipeline due to the fact that Pakistan’s gas consumption in 2020 has already passed the mark of 47 billion cubic meters, although in 2001 the country consumed a modest 19 billion cubic meters.

It is expected that by the early 2030s, Pakistan’s gas market deficit will reach an astronomical figure of 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This rapid growth in natural gas consumption is due not only to the country’s growing population, but also to the accelerated growth of urbanization and the rapid development of national industry. However, Pakistan has extremely limited reserves of oil, gas, and coal, so the only way out of this situation is the ever-increasing import of energy.

In addition, it should not be overlooked that Pakistan has consistently developed automobile transport with a focus on the use of natural gas, and the share of such vehicles in the country is now nearly 70%, which is the second highest in the world.

However, the creation of a traditional pipeline infrastructure for natural gas imports is complicated for Pakistan by issues of interaction with its closest neighbors – primarily with India and Afghanistan. In this situation, LNG imports via offshore terminals have become almost the only way for Pakistan to rapidly increase its energy consumption, and the Russian proposal to build a modern pipeline was expected to be in line with the development of Pakistan’s gas industry.

Against the background of anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the US against the Nord Stream-2 pipeline, the signing of the contract to build and operate Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline is a visible recognition of Russia’s success in high technology fields of the gas industry and a vivid response to the sanctions policy of the U.S. and some of its Western European allies. Therefore, Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, associated with the LNG import terminal, is not just another foreign project of Russia, but a promising model of future export sales of Russian gas, despite Washington’s intensified attempts to prevent it.

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Vladimir Danilov is a political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

Featured image is from New Eastern Outlook

Of Plagues and Rodents: Australia’s War Against Mice

June 7th, 2021 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

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Not a day goes by these days without a casual remark about animal extermination in Australia.  Mice have moved to the front of the queue in terms of animal species Australians would most like to liquidate.  The language used has various registers: sombre and regretful; grave and scientific; panicked and bloody.  

This is all ordinary fare and is characterised by ignoring the anthropogenic nature of the problems.  Behind every pest outbreak on the Australian continent is a human hand operated by a muddled mind.  In Australia, that hand has been particularly busy in negligence. Since the eighteenth century, animal species have been introduced inadvertently or through design affecting and in many instances devastating the continent’s ecosystem. 

Some have been introduced with the purpose of neutralising other designated pest species, the most calamitous example being that of the cane toad.   Introduced by agricultural scientists of the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations in 1935, the toad’s intended target were scarab beetles whose root-feeding larvae delighted in commercial agriculture, notably sugarcane crops.  Famously, the toad preferred different sources of food and proceeded to prey on other species with gusto, including native predators. The species flourished.

The humble house mouse is said to have arrived with the British First Fleet in 1788 but some speculation abounds that the introduction might have come via Dutch ships charting the coast of “New Holland” in the 1600s.  A 2011 study on that question found that “a British Isles origin of Australian mice is the most reasonable interpretation of our results.” 

Mice populations have recently soared, notably in New South Wales and southern Queensland, given drought breaking rains.  Crops have been attacked and animal food reserves contaminated.  There have been instances of infection, notably leptospirosis.  As Danica Leys of the Association of Rural Women sees it, “It is an economic and health crisis.  From the contamination of food and water by mice, to the diseases they spread, this pest is affecting more than crops, not to mention the stress it causes”. 

The rise in numbers has made an impression on foreign press outlets.  The London-based Express wrote of an infestation of tens of millions of mice.  Australians had “reported the mice terrorising their lives, creeping over their faces as they sleep, biting them, invading classrooms and even nibbling at patients in their hospital beds.”  It did not take long for these militant rodents to be seen as a threat to Australia’s most populous city.  Channel 10 News Sydney had warned about a potential mice “march”. 

The hearty solution, as always with the next pest, is mass extermination.  Australia’s deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack expressed the widely held view that, “The only good mouse is a dead mouse.”  To that end there is seemingly no end to the devilish applications of human ingenuity in destroying or regulating a species.  Modern mice killers try to sound like educated middle managers, flirting with scientific rationalist inquiry.  Can we be more modern in the ways we massacre them?  Take, for instance, the next generation of “gene driven” technology, with the New South Wales government promising AU$1.8 million for the venture.  (The total mouse control package comes to AU$50 million.)

The most important feature of this technology is inducing infertility, a soft, tender gloved version of dispatch. This form of extermination is clean, avoids killing other species on route, and sits well with the bio-controllers.  “We have modelled it already,” Paul Thomas of the University of Adelaide states, “and it should cause the population to crash over time.”   Thomas is also delighted by the “X-shredder” approach, which involves targeting the X chromosome carrier, namely, the sperm of the mice.

You might be forgiven for thinking that a daring experiment for the betterment of humanity was in the offing.  “Mice arrived in Australia with the first fleet,” trumpeted the NSW Minister for Agriculture Adam Marshall, “and from then until now the best control methods we have been able to come up with have been baiting and trapping.” 

The less modern aspect of this inspired strategy is the use of a particular poison, bromadiolone, which has been likened by Marshall to the use of “napalm”.  (Should we be worried?)  The factsheet of the National Pesticide Pest Centre is cheery about its effects.  “Unlike some other rat poisons, which require multiple days of feeding by an animal, bromadiolone can be lethal from one day’s feeding.” 

With such sinister war metaphors involved, even the bio-control boffins are concerned that this was going too far.  Species murder is acceptable, but, as with some genocidaire types, it comes with ceremonial restraint.  Killing mice with such poison would insert the substance into the food chain, endangering predators. 

Peter Brown, who heads the rodent management research team at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), notes that “anti-coagulants can accumulate up through the food chain, and so birds of prey or other animals can be feeding on dead mice and they could potentially get a lethal dose themselves through secondary poisoning.” 

Evidence of bird deaths arising from the ingestion of poisoned bait has already been found in the central west of NSW.  And that’s in connection with the less toxic and commonly used zinc phosphide.  Kelly Lacey, a volunteer for the NSW Wildlife Information, Rescue and Education Services (WIRES), found 100 dead galahs in a cemetery in Parkes at the end of last month.  It was particularly galling for her, seeing as she had been involved in rehabilitating and releasing a good number of the birds around the area.

Bait poisonings of household pets and working animals have also been recorded.  Peter Best, a veterinarian based in South Tamworth, estimated that one in 15 admissions to his practice had involved poisoned animals.

Such facts could only make another researcher at the CSIRO sigh.  “If it’s used properly,” observed Steve Henry, “it should be a very, very low risk that a bird should find one of those grains of zinc phosphide and eat it.”  The bait was sound.  The same could not be said for those using it.  “Why birds start falling out of the sky is [that] people do inappropriate things.”   Such people used the bait in ways “not described on the label, or people make up their own baits.”

When asked about her attitude to the problem, Healthy Rivers Dubbo convenor Melissa Gray suggested, with no detectable irony, that everybody wanted “the mouse plague gone, but there’s no silver bullet.”  No silver bullets, maybe, but virtually everything else in the armoury of extermination. For the president of the NSW Farmers Association, the mayhem caused by such a poison as bromadiolone was worth the effort.  Showing the somewhat patchy wisdom of his forebears, he accepted the lethal calculus.  “It will cause poisoning in animals that eat the dead mice”.  That, however, “was the lesser of two evils”.

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Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research. Email: [email protected]

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On May 28, the Supreme Court had directed all district authorities to upload information of children who have been orphaned after March 2020 on the national portal of National Commission for Protection of Child Rights called Bal Swaraj on or before May 29.

In pursuance of this, the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights (NCPCR) informed the Supreme Court that 9,346 children in total are in need of immediate care. Out of this, 4,486 are girls and 4,480 are boys. According to NCPCR’s affidavit uploaded by LiveLaw, 1,742 children have been orphaned, 140 abandoned and 7,464 have lost one parent during the coronavirus pandemic.

A further breakdown provided in the NCPCR affidavit states that 788 children who need immediate protection belong to the age group of 0 to 3 years. 1,515 children belong to the 4 to 7 years age bracket and there are about 3,711 children in the age group of 8 to 13 years.

Uttar Pradesh has topped the list with 2,110 children in need of care, 10 who have been abandoned, 1,830 who lost a parent and 270 who have become orphans. In response to this, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has launched a welfare scheme for children who have either lost both of their parents to Covid or the earning parent, as reported in the media. Under this scheme called the Uttar Pradesh Mukhyamantri Bal Seva Yojana, the government will provide financial assistance to a child’s guardian while those who do not have anyone to look after them will be sent to children’s homes.

The Chief Minister was quoted saying by The Economic Times,

“Children who have lost both of their parents to COVID-19, a surviving parent, legal guardian in case the parents have already died earlier, will be included in this scheme. Children, who have lost the earning parent of their family will also be included in the scheme. The state government is committed to better health, better education and for the bright future of the children.”

During the court hearing on June 1, NCPCR’s lawyer submitted that the District authorities have not been able to provide the complete information relating to the children who have been affected by the loss of either of the parents or one parent during the pandemic. The time given to the District authorities to upload the information before May 29 has been extended till June 5. NCPCR has also been directed to collate the information and file an affidavit by June 6 evening.

The Supreme Court Bench also noted the Amicus Curiae Gaurav Agarwal’s submission that through the “PM Cares for Children” scheme which was announced by the Prime Minister on May 29 this year, children who have lost both parents or surviving parent or legal guardian/ adopted parents during Covid-19 shall be the beneficiaries of aid from the Central Government.

Since the particulars of the scheme is not available, he submitted that the Central Government should be directed to furnish all necessary details about the scheme announced by the Prime Minister.

Further, the Union government has been directed to furnish information relating to the mechanism that would be adopted for distribution of the benefits. The State governments/ Union Territories have been instructed to appoint a Nodal Officer at the level of Secretaries, Joint Secretaries of the concerned District who would interact with him and provide all the necessary information relating to identification of orphans/CNCP’s (Children in Need of Care and Protection) to alleviate their pain and sufferings.

The States of Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand have been asked to start with this exercise and complete it before June 7.

The matter has been posted for hearing on June 7.

The order may be read here:

Sc order 01.06.2021 (1) from ZahidManiyar

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Mach 30 ‘Tunnel’ Will Put China Decades Ahead

June 3rd, 2021 by Dave Makichuk

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***

“There is a Chinese saying, it takes 10 years to sharpen a sword. We have spent 60 years sharpening two swords … and they are the best.” — Chinese researcher Han Guilai

Imagine a wind tunnel, capable of simulating flights at Mach 30 — that’s 23,000 mph, or, 30 times the speed of sound.

It may sound like science fiction, but in fact, China has built a hypersonic wind tunnel in Beijing which could put the superpower decades ahead of the West, according to a report in UK’s The Sun.

Researcher Han Guilai, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that together with another facility, also in Beijing, China will be about 20 to 30 years ahead of other powers.

Such futuristic aerospace technology could make it possible for super-fast jets to fly anywhere in the world in two hours or less.

It could also make space travel accessible to ordinary people as the hypersonic aircraft could cut costs by more than 90%, reports say.

Of course, the technology is also hugely important when it comes to weapons.

President Xi Jinping has made modernizing the armed forces a key priority and wants to have a “world class military” by 2050 capable of matching the US, the report said.

China has invested a huge amount of time and money developing hypersonic missiles.

The lethal DF-17 “carrier killer” can perform extreme manoeuvers as it hurtles at Mach 10 — some 7,600 mph — towards a target, with any warship unlikely to survive a direct hit.

The older J-12 hypersonic wind tunnel in Beijing is working with the new facility to develop hypersonic aircraft. The JF-22 tunnel is capable of simulating flights at Mach 30 or 23,000 mph – 30 times the speed of sound. Credit: Handout

Even without a warhead, the DF-17 could tear through a big ship like the US Navy’s latest carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford — putting it out of action.

While no launch date has been set for China’s hypersonic aircraft, scientists at JF-22 will work together with experts at JF-12 — another wind tunnel in Beijing which has about fifth of the new facility’s power output, the report said.

Instead of using mechanical compressors, Beijing uses chemical explosions to generate high speed air flow.

Fuel burns in the JF-22 at speeds 100 million times faster than a regular gas stove creating shock waves similar to those experienced by jets at hypervelocity.

At America’s most advanced wind tunnel, named the LENS II (Large Energy National Shock tunnels), simulated flights last 30 milliseconds, running between Mach 3 and 9.

In comparison, JF-22’s average flight simulation can reach 130 milliseconds, Guilai said.

“Our experiment time is much longer than theirs, so the aircraft model can be larger than theirs, and the experiments can be more advanced than theirs.

“This determines our leading position in the world.”

A surface-to-air missile is fired from a missile launcher by the air force under the PLA Southern Theater Command during a round-the-clock air defense training exercise. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zhang Hengping and Yuan Hai)

Guilai, who works with China’s hypersonic agency the Institute of Mechanics, said a jet travelling at such high speeds could reach 10,000 degrees celsius and break air molecules into atoms — even giving some an electric charge.

He said: “This air is no longer the air we breathe in. The flying vehicle we study is like swimming in mud.”

Qian Xuesen, considered “the father of China’s rocket program,” coined the term “hypersonic” in 1946 after he found that the behaviour of air flow was completely different at five times faster than sound.

The term was used in his research article “Similarity laws of hypersonic flows” to distinguish the flows at speeds much higher than the local speed of sound from supersonic flows where thermal and chemical reaction effects on flow motion can be ignored.

The hypersonic and high-enthalpy flow is referred to as a gas flow with high kinetic energy, in which there may exist thermal and chemical reactions behind the bow shock or within the boundary layer.

After more than sixty years’ research work, hypersonic ground test facilities suitable for exploring aero-thermochemistry still rely on high-enthalpy shock tunnels.

Many shock tunnels have been built around the world.

For example, LENS I and II in the US, the High-Enthalpy Shock Tunnel (HIEST) in Japan, the High-Enthalpy Shock Tunnel (HEG) in Germany and the JF-12 and JF-22 tunnels in China.

The key aerodynamic phenomena and their effects on aircraft performance were first discovered during the atmospheric reentry of the space vehicles such as space capsules or space shuttles.

Such vehicles encounter extremely strong nose shock waves and viscous friction along the surfaces that can heat the surrounding air to a temperature up to thousands or even ten thousand degrees.

Molecule vibration excitation, gas dissociation and atom ionization may occur successively as the gas temperature increases. In such a situation, air will no longer be an ideal gaseous mixture, but a chemically reacting media varying with the flow temperature.

The substantial change in the flow media results in changes to the constitutive relation of the high-enthalpy flows in which the energy transition takes place within chemically reacting gases and flow motions.

This is the fundamental issue of hypersonic and high-enthalpy flows and boosts study on the chemical physics of gas dynamics.

As well as his work on hypersonics, it was Qian who single-handedly led China’s space and military rocketry efforts after he was drummed out of the United States during the red-baiting of the McCarthy era.

A former US Secretary of the Navy, Dan Kimball — later head of the rocket propulsion company, Aerojet — would later say it was “the stupidest thing this country ever did.”

But in the US of the 1930s and 1940s, Qian was no less valuable, if not so publicly celebrated, as a pioneer in American jet and rocket technology.

As a student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and later as a scientist and teacher at the California Institute of Technology, Qian, also known as Tsien Hsue-shen, played a central role in early US efforts to exploit jet and rocket propulsion.

On the war front in Germany, he advised the US Army on ballistic-missile guidance technology.

At the war’s end, holding the temporary rank of lieutenant colonel, he debriefed Nazi scientists, including Werner von Braun, and was sent to analyze Hitler’s V-2 rocket facilities.

In 1955, Qian was sent back to China, where he was proclaimed a hero and immediately put to work developing Chinese rocketry.

Under his leadership, China developed its first generation of “Long March” missiles and, in 1970, launched its first satellite.

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Sources

The Sun, BBC News, Wikipedia, The New York Times, ScienceDirect.com

Featured image: A formation of Dongfeng-17 missiles takes part in a military parade during the celebrations marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at Tian’anmen Square in Beijing. (Xinhua/Mao Siqian)

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***

A few days ago, the Indian Naval Command submitted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi a request to build six nuclear submarines. From the Indian military’s position, the country needs six new submarines to counter the growing strength of the Chinese fleet that has long housed warships across the Indian Ocean. Currently, India has two nuclear submarines – one leased from Russia and the other domestically built. China has seven nuclear submarines and will soon add 12 more. It is obvious that New Delhi wants to narrow the ever-increasing gap in military power between the two countries.

Also noted is the Indian military base on North Agaléga Island, part of Mauritius, an island nation in the Indian Ocean to the east of Madagascar. This military base is taking on a so-called defensive role against China’s growing power, particularly in Eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean. The base was established in 2015 to track Chinese ships passing through the Indian Ocean to the African coast.

Using the base for this purpose against China demonstrates that India is increasingly aligning its international policy with QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), an anti-China U.S.-led organization that also consists of Japan and Australia. New Delhi has traditionally kept its distance from military alliances, and yet, although today QUAD is not an officially institutionalized organization, many believe it will soon become a kind of “Asian NATO.” This is an immense shift from India’s traditional position as a leading voice of the Non-Aligned Movement.

India also has another foreign policy direction that it can pursue despite being in stark contrast to QUAD – the BRICS group. India, along with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, were attempting to establish a more equitable multipolar world order. These countries showed willingness to work together to help less developed countries whilst simultaneously improving their own global status and image.

Some experts point to this potential, with one saying:

“There is also the chance, however remote it may seem at the moment, that India and China enter into a grand rapprochement with one another, which results in them synergizing their economic activities in East Africa. This would naturally be the best-case scenario that could lead to multilaterally beneficial outcomes for all regional stakeholders. India and China could jointly assist Africa’s ascent across the 21st century, ideally through trilateral projects instead of competition.”

The Indian government can still choose between its traditional pacifist foreign policy or an alliance with a dubious militarism that only benefits the Anglo World. However, all signs are now pointing towards Indian militarism in the face of China’s growing power.

The U.S., Japan, Australia and India are expected to collectively aid each other and work together to defeat China in a hypothetical war. From the Indian perspective, they believe that a part of Kashmir is currently occupied by China and Pakistan, which New Delhi fears in the future will launch wars against India to claim even more Kashmiri territory, and in this way, QUAD is meant to serve as a deterrent.

However, the main folly with this idea is that it places a high amount of trust in Australia, Japan and the U.S. to support the Indian war effort against China. From the American, Japanese and Australian perspective, any hypothetical war with China will be at sea between the navies. It is expected that India would send its warships thousands of kilometers away to fight in the South China Sea. But the reality is that any hypothetical war between India and China will be land based on the Himalayan mountains. It is almost inconceivable to imagine that American, Japanese and Australian infantry will be landing in India to fight against the Chinese on mountain ranges thousands of kilometers away.

Therefore, QUAD does not have an equal power relationship among the four members as there is an expectation that Indian servicepeople will travel thousands of kilometers to fight against China without any clear prospect of the other three members sending soldiers to India. India and China have fought several wars and skirmishes, and all of them have been on land and over border disputes.

This must bring to question the function of the North Agaléga Island base. Although it is part of India’s own growing power projection across the Indian Ocean, including East Africa and its offshore islands like Mauritius, it is also part of efforts to counter China’s growing power and influence. The bulk of the issue between China and India is border demarcations on the Himalayas. By expanding naval military ties with the U.S., Japan and Australia, India is not resolving its issues with China, but is rather expanding problems for the sake of countries who are unlikely to support India in a land war against China.

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Paul Antonopoulos is an independent geopolitical analyst.

Featured image is from InfoBrics

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This month marks seven years of Modi in power.

Narendra Modi first got elected as Prime Minister of India in May 2014. His right wing Hindu nationalist BJP has turned what has otherwise been known as the “world’s largest democracy” into an intolerant Hindu theocracy. Attacks on religious minorities, particularly Muslims and political dissidents, have grown under him since then.

Let’s first examine, why is this happening? And, what is so unique about this government?

We must keep in mind that India has seen emergency and press censorship in 1975 under a different regime. Likewise, India also witnessed the Sikh Genocide in 1984, under the Congress government. For the record, the Congress party, which is now in the opposition. claims to be a secular alternative to the BJP. Nevertheless, the Congress party had engaged itself in divisive and sectarian politics for short term gains by polarizing the Hindu majority. Yet, the difference between the two parties needs to be understood.

BJP is a political arm of the RSS – a Hindu supremacist group established in 1925 when India was under British occupation. Notably, the RSS never played an active role in the freedom movement. It mainly campaigned to establish a Hindu nation in which Muslims and Christians were to be treated as second-class citizens.

RSS has always considered Islam and Christianity as foreign religions, while domestic faith groups such as Buddhism and Sikhism are part of the Hindu fold. Their exclusionist and assimilationist agenda was no secret. They believed in violence and fascism. It is not surprising that they idolized Hitler and justified the Jewish holocaust, and even drew inspiration from Nazis.

RSS itself is like a semi-paramilitary force that routinely organizes camps across India. They mostly wear khaki shorts and sport black caps during their ceremonies. Modi is an RSS man. There is a famous quote from him saying that he owes to the Sangh (RSS).

It is important to mention here that the RSS was briefly banned following the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi, the towering leader of the passive resistance movement against British rule.

Although a practicing Hindu himself, unlike the RSS founders, Gandhi believed in the coexistence of Hindus and Muslims. In spite of many of his own contradictions, Gandhi did not suit the RSS. One of their followers, Nathuram Godse, killed him in 1948.

While the BJP will never officially question Gandhi, who has been accepted as the father of the Indian nation, some of its MPs have been caught in controversies for glorifying his assassin. However, Modi reverrs V.D. Savarkar, another problematic figure and a Hindu bigot, who was involved in Gandhi’s murder, although he was acquitted by the courts for lack of evidence.

Let’s face it, Modi’s ascendance to power is the culmination of both the consistent efforts of the RSS to transform the political environment through social engineering, and the pragmatic majoritarian politics of the previous Congress government. Right from Gandhi to the present, the Congress leadership has compromised to please the Hindu majority by soft-peddling religion-based politics.

For instance Gandhi believed in cow protection. The cow is considered a sacred animal by many devout Hindus. Today, the BJP has made many tough cow protection laws, while its supporters continue to hound Muslims suspected of carrying beef in their tiffin boxes.

In 1984, the Congress government ordered the military attack on the Golden Temple complex, the holiest shrine of the Sikhs in Amritsar, to deal with a handful of militants fighting an armed insurgency. As a result of this ill-conceived army operation, many innocent pilgrims died, and Sikhs were outraged all across the world. This was done to humiliate the Sikh minority to win an upcoming election.

On October 31, 1984, the then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was murdered by her Sikh bodyguards. The Congress then organized anti-Sikh massacres all over India. Several BJP/RSS men also participated in the violence. In the ensuing election, Indira’s son got a huge majority in parliament, while BJP only had two MPs. In other words, the BJP-RSS vote had shifted to the Congress.

Modi used similar tactics in 2002 when he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat.

Following a fire on a train carrying Hindu pilgrims, anti-Muslim pogroms were organized all over Gujarat under Modi’s watch, after he had blamed the incident on Muslims. While Modi was never charged, the survivors and the witnesses continue to allege his complicity. He was denied visa by the US and other western countries until he became the Prime Minister in 2014. In 2015, he visited Canada.

Let’s fast forward to his re-election in 2019.

Shortly after his second term began, his government started pushing the core RSS agenda more aggressively.

As part of its long term commitment to the Hindu Right, his government scrapped the special status given to Kashmir, the only Muslim majority state in India. Thousands of Kashmiris fighting for self-determination were detained.
Then came the famous temple verdict. The Indian Supreme Court handed over the disputed site of Ayodhya to the Hindus. Ayodhya is the birthplace of Lord Ram – a prominent Hindu god.

The BJP has always claimed that the Muslim rulers had demolished the Ram temple that once stood there, to build a mosque. In 1992, the BJP goons had razed the mosque. Since then the BJP has been campaigning to rebuild a Hindu temple at the exact spot.

It is widely believed that the Supreme Court favoured the ruling BJP, and now Modi is determined to deliver on his promise to implement the RSS agenda of rebuilding the Ram temple.

The 2019 electoral win obviously emboldened Modi.

His government went ahead to pass another controversial law. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) was a highly discriminatory legislation that welcomes only non-Muslim refugees coming to India from the three neighbouring Muslim-dominated countries, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

This law was heavily resisted.

If all this wasn’t enough, the BJP government passed agriculture laws that the farming community believes will harm their livelihood. All these laws were implemented without much debate in parliament, merely because the BJP has an absolute majority in the house. Anyone resisting these policies can be potentially charged and detained under draconian laws or branded as “anti-national” by the lapdog media of Modi’s government.

The situation continues to deteriorate. So much so, even those who raise questions over the government’s mismanagement of the COVID 19 situation must face the music.

Despite tall claims of development and progress, India has failed under Modi. The shortage of oxygen and beds in the hospitals suggests the complete lack of preparedness. To question that makes you an “anti-national” or “unpatriotic”. We can see clearly how the space for democracy and dialogue is rapidly shrinking under Modi. The previous regimes definitely played a role for the current state of affairs, by pandering to the Hindu majority and not doing enough to bring an even economic growth, but this government must take blame for outright failure, as they have a majority in the house. If this government can implement core programs of the RSS, why can’t it deliver on issues that matter to everyone?

That the majority is with Modi is mainly because the RSS has been actively mobilizing people in the name of Hindu nationalism for all these years. Not only the previous regimes failed to stop the RSS from marching ahead, they have been pandering Hindu majority by playing destructive and competitive politics only to the benefit of Modi. Today, the RSS has deeply penetrated into the Indian institutions, the academic bodies, the administrative structure and even the police and the intelligence.

Let’s examine what is means for Canada and the rest of the world?

Whatever is happening in India, will definitely have ripple effects here. We all are familiar with the 1985 Air India bombings; the worst terror incident in Canadian history. Never forget that it was the culmination of the ugly events of 1984. The Canada-based Sikh separatists are widely blamed for the incident that claimed 331 lives. Are we waiting for another tragedy?

It is important to pay attention.

The way Modi is treating minorities might have an impact in the Indian Diaspora. His supporters are increasingly becoming vocal and aggressive in Canada, inciting his opponents here, while most Canadians still take India’s secular democracy for granted.

From a Canadian perspective, Modi’s policy of assimilating Sikhs should be recognized as a huge problem. Much as First Nations here are resisting assimilation, the Sikhs, who have a sizable population in Canada and have been defending their separate identity, are anxious about the continued growth of the RSS.

Notably, the RSS is repeating the history of Indian Residential Schools. They have been plucking young Indigenous or Adivasi girls from the north-eastern states, sending them to seminaries far away from their families to be indoctrinated into right wing Hindu nationalist ideology.

The CAA is also a repetition of the Continuous Journey Regulation (CJR), under which the Komagata Maru ship was forcibly returned from Vancouver in 1914. Whereas the CJR was aimed to keep Indian immigrants away, the CAA discriminates against Muslim refugees.

The RSS believes in the brutal caste system within Hindu society. Much like blacks, who suffer systemic racism here in North America, the Dalits or so-called untouchables face worst discrimination under that system.
For RSS the idea of racial superiority was never alien. Not only have they idolized Hitler, the BJP supporters openly admired Donald Trump. Modi campaigned shamelessly for his re-election. Let’s keep in mind though, that Modi and RSS are far more dangerous than Trump.

As we see anti-Asian racism growing here in North America due to COVID 19, in other parts of India people from north eastern states with oriental facial features are also facing discrimination under Modi’s watch. Due to his anti-China rhetoric, this hate has grown even more. It is time for Canada to pay attention and take this challenge seriously.

Where has Canada failed?

Canada, which is also enamoured by Sikh politics, failed to see the gradual growth of RSS in this country. What is the reason that Canada has failed to ban any Hindu extremist group? It is well known how the Hindu Right mobilized people in Canada in support of the Ram temple movement. Some temples even here in BC supported the idea of rebuilding the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Those associated with the movement and were responsible for the demolition of the Ayodhya mosque in 1992 were invited here and allowed to address the temple congregations.

Some of these temples have been holding RSS drills, and some RSS men held positions of power in local temples, and yet the Canadian authorities looked away.

India and Canada have had a number of strategies to deal with the Sikh separatists, but there is a complete silence about growing Hindu extremism.

Only recently, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised his concern over the mistreatment of agitating farmers, there was a fierce backlash from India. Shortly after that, Trudeau asked for COVID 19 vaccines from Modi, which further emboldened RSS sympathizers in Canada and encouraged them to hold demonstrations to irritate Modi critics here.

While Canada had opened its doors for Hindus and Sikhs facing religious persecution in Afghanistan, and for a Christian woman who faced death in Pakistan, there has been a deafening silence over what is happening with minorities in India.

Canada recently recognized genocide of Uyghur Muslims in China, but failed to recognize genocides of Sikhs and Muslims in India, which only reflects its selectivity.

Even though the Sikh separatist movement has lost its charm, Canada is still keeping an eye on Sikh activists, although it should be keeping a watch on Hindu groups.

What needs to be done?

There is a need to keep a check on the RSS and its folks in Canada, besides banning their activities. This should be followed by a freeze on their assets to stop hate funding. Equally important is to identify the organizations that have sympathy for RSS and Modi, but operate under the disguise of pro-India lobby groups.

There is also a need to keep a watch on Indian agents all across Canada, who have been trying to influence our politicians and the ethnic media to create a favourable image of Modi and the RSS. Elected officials who openly sympathize with Modi and RSS and continue to overlook their crimes against humanity must be made accountable.

If Canada really is a human rights leader in the world, it needs to stand up for the human rights of minorities in India under Modi.

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(With little amendments from my presentation to Squamish Rotary Club on May 13, 2021)

Gurpreet Singh is a journalist.

Australia: Water Activists Win Against Adani

June 1st, 2021 by Margaret Gleeson

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***

In a victory for people power, the Federal Court found, on May 25, that the federal government had failed to apply the “water trigger” test when assessing — and approving — Adani’s North Galilee Water Scheme (NGWS) in April 2019.

The NGWS refers to a pipeline that would extract 12.5 billion litres of water a year from the Suttor River to service Adani’s Carmichael Coal Mine in central Queensland.

The “water trigger” refers to The Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 2013 (EPBC Act) that stipulates that coal seam gas and coal mining developments need federal assessment and approval if they are likely to have a significant impact on water resources.

The “water trigger” is designed to subject large coal mines and coal seam gas (CSG) projects to a more rigorous assessment of their impact on surface and ground water.

Relying on the spurious argument that the “water trigger” only applies to the physical extraction of coal, and not to pipelines that supply water for coal mines, the federal government decided, in December 2019, not to include the “water trigger” in its assessment of Adani’s proposed pipeline.

This decision was challenged by the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF). It lodged the claim against Adani in the Federal Court in March last year, claiming the government did not properly assess the mining giant’s plans.

ACF argued that the government’s one-sided reading of the “water trigger” allowed mining companies to avoid rigorous assessment by obscuring the way in which water is used in CSG and coal-mining projects.

Environmental Defenders Office (EDO) Managing Lawyer Sean Ryan, who represented the ACF, said the “decision confirms that coal mining developments cannot avoid facing [the] water trigger assessment even if their critical water infrastructure is a separate project”.

He added that this was also a win for the community which raised concerns about then federal environment minister Melissa Price’s decision to not apply the water trigger.

ACF spokesperson Kelly O’Shanassy described the win as important given the continent’s relative scarcity of water and the huge amounts used by coal and CSG mining corporations.

It also sets an important precedent, O’Shanassy said, because “essential infrastructure for coal seam gas and large coal mining projects must [now] be assessed under our national environment law”. Mining companies like Adani “cannot be trusted to put our environment ahead of their profits”.

O’Shanassy stressed the win was a victory for workers and farmers in regional Queensland, who depend on a reliable flow of water in the Suttor River for their livelihood. It was also a win “for people power”, O’Shanassy said, as “thousands of people across Australia” had helped to fund the case.

Although Adani claims the ruling will not affect the construction and operation of the Carmichael mine, O’Shanassy disagrees. “Without the North Galilee Water Scheme, it’s hard to see how Adani has enough water to operate its mine”, she commented, especially as “the decision also applies to other possible water sources for the mine”.

Other controversies over Adani’s coal mine continue. The Australian Electoral Commission’s 2018–19 donations return shows Adani gifted $247,000 to the Liberal and National Parties, as well as $12,000 in the week prior to the minister’s decision and $200,000 in the month following the May 18, 2019 Queensland election.

For more than 10 years, Traditional Owners, farmers and environment activists around the country have mounted a mass campaign to Stop Adani.

The campaign — including mass rallies, film screenings, public meetings and non-violent direct action has kept the pressure up on Adani contractors, shareholders, politicians and port and rail link construction agencies.

The campaign has also been intensified with Traditional Wangan and Jagalingou owners establishing a permanent base on site.

Green Left has always supported the campaign to stop Adani, including giving voice to the activists and analysing the destructive effects of coal on First Nations communities’ culture, the environment, water resources and climate change.

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Featured image: Sydney climate strike on May 21. Photo: Viv Miley

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India has been suffering horrendously from COVID of late, and the complete death toll may never be known. But in the capital city of Delhi, mass distribution of ivermectin began and the results have been stunning.

Stephen McIntyre of Climate Audit posted a Twitter thread that includes this remarkable graph:

Source

This result is consistent with the results of mass distribution of ivermectin in Mexico City, as reported by James V. DeLong on these pages on May 21, 2021:

Yet, most doctors in this country refuse to prescribe ivermectin, and most hospitals in this country refuse to administer it even to seriously ill COVID patients, citing the lack of double-blind studies – which are expensive and time consuming and which yield no big profits for anyone since ivermectin is a generic drug with no patent protection.

A Buffalo, NY woman had to sue in order to receive ivermectin therapy while hospitalized, forced to bear considerable legal fees. After a judge ordered that she receive it, she recovered and left the hospital.

In poorer countries, where vaccines are unavailable to too expensive for mass use, they have been forced to resort to ivermectin. This has had the effect of conducting a mass experiment (albeit not with the double-blind, randomized, controlled conditions that “gold standard” medical research requires. Maybe that will enable the ivermectin deniers to maintain their posture of self-righteousness.

Note that the emergency use authorization under which the experimental mRNA vaccines have been approved for mass use would not be given if there were an accepted effective alternative therapy. Billions of dollars flowing into the hands of vaccine makers would not have happened.

Disclaimer: Of course, I am not a medical doctor and am not qualified to offer medical advice. This post is only meant to provide information, and not to recommend any medical treatment to any readers.

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Featured image is from Countercurrents

US Maritime Bullying Targets “Ally” India

May 27th, 2021 by Joseph Thomas

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Tensions temporarily spiked between Washington and New Delhi when US warships conducted a “freedom of navigation operation” (FONOP) inside India’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in early April.

The US’ own 7th Fleet website in an announcement would claim:

On April 7, 2021 (local time) USS John Paul Jones (DDG 53) asserted navigational rights and freedoms approximately 130 nautical miles west of the Lakshadweep Islands, inside India’s exclusive economic zone, without requesting India’s prior consent, consistent with international law. India requires prior consent for military exercises or maneuvers in its exclusive economic zone or continental shelf, a claim inconsistent with international law. This freedom of navigation operation (“FONOP”) upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea recognized in international law by challenging India’s excessive maritime claims.

The Times of India in its article, “In unusual move, US navy conducts operation near Lakshadweep without India’s consent,” would report concerns by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA):

“The USS John Paul Jones (US guided missile destroyer) was continuously monitored transiting from the Persian Gulf towards the Malacca Straits. We have conveyed our concerns regarding this passage through our EEZ to the US government through diplomatic channels,” added the MEA.

The article would also note:

…the “tone and tenor of the aggressive public declaration” of FONOPs in India’s EEZ, at a time when the US is seeking India’s closer cooperation through the Quad and other mechanisms to foster “credible deterrence” against China in the Indo-Pacific, raised the hackles of the Indian security establishment.

Washington’s claims that it conducted this operation to uphold “the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea recognized in international law” means that it sailed its warships into India’s EEZ solely for this purpose, fitting into a much wider pattern of America’s self-appointed role of enforcing its own interpretations of international law.

According to the 2015, “US Department of Defense Freedom of Navigation Program Fact Sheet,” the US claims:

The Program is actively implemented against excessive maritime claims by coastal nations in every region of the world, based upon the Department’s global interest in mobility and access. The Program is principle-based, in that it is administered with regard to the excessive nature of maritime claims, rather than the identity of the coastal nations asserting those claims. As a result, US forces challenge excessive claims asserted not only by potential adversaries and competitors, but also by allies, partners, and other nations.

But of course FONOPs are inherently political, because they provoke political reactions from those targeted by them. Those reactions are most certainly calculated and understood before FONOPs are conducted.

Thus, far from objectively “enforcing” what the US claims is “international law,” the US FONOP in India’s EEZ had a definitive political message; the US holds primacy over the Indo-Pacific region, not only primacy over adversaries like China, but also primacy over “allies” like India.

Far from conjecture, the US itself in its own policy papers admits this.

US “Freedom of Navigation” Operations Protect Primacy, Not International Law 

paper titled, US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific” published as part of the White House archives for the departing Trump administration would open by stating its first “national security challenge” in the region was:

…how to maintain US strategic primacy in the Indo-Pacific region and promote a liberal economic order while preventing China from establishing new, illiberal spheres of influence, and cultivating areas of cooperation to promote regional peace and prosperity.

While some might point out that China was mentioned specifically by name, that is only because China is a near peer competitor of the United States and the foremost threat to US primacy in the region at the moment.

Through the US Navy’s FONOP in India’s EEZ, it’s clear that the emergence of any socio-political or economic order in the region independent of Washington’s influence and challenging US primacy would also constitute a threat, including nations the US attempts to court into its sphere of influence as allies.

It is not any specific threat China represents that has prompted America’s adversarial and disruptive posture in the Indo-Pacific region, but rather the very general threat posed to American primacy, a threat that clearly nations like India or regional blocs like ASEAN also potentially pose.

The pursuit of primacy drives America’s “freedom of navigation program” in the Indo-Pacific region, not any genuine threat China or India pose to either the national security of the US itself or alleged threats to “international law” the US uses to justify its “freedom of navigation” program.

New Delhi and other rising powers in the region might take note of America’s declared and demonstrated agenda in the region, avoiding overly committing to US activities in a bid to balance regional power in regards to rising China. Other, more reliable partners should be sought, because should the US be allowed to create an overbearing political, military and economic presence in the Indo-Pacific region, that leverage will be used against all nations, not just current adversaries like China.

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Joseph Thomas is chief editor of Thailand-based geopolitical journal, The New Atlas and contributor to the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Featured image is from New Eastern Outlook

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New Zealand’s government has broken ranks with the US-led “Five Eyes,” refusing to repeat US claims of “genocide” in Xinjiang, China. 

While New Zealand clearly made a reasonable decision, it is one that will attract significant pressure from the West to reverse it.

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Brian Berletic, formally known under the pen name “Tony Cartalucci” is a geopolitical researcher, writer, and video producer (YouTube hereOdysee here, and BitChute here) based in Bangkok, Thailand. He is a regular contributor to New Eastern Outlook and more recently, 21st Century Wire. You can support his work via Patreon here

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Despite a sustained campaign and widespread publicity, vaccine hesitancy continues to prevail in the rural hinterlands of Uttar Pradesh where the pandemic is spreading its tentacles.

In Sisoda village in Barabanki — where a group of residents jumped into the Saryu river to evade vaccination on Sunday — the residents remain firm in their decision of not getting the jab.

Shishupal, a local farmer, said:

“People have died even after getting vaccinated. I know of those who have had to be hospitalised after the jab. Jab marna hi hai to vaccine kyon?”

Shishupal, who has done matriculation, is convinced that the Covid vaccine is ‘harmful’ and spreads this ‘information’ among others.

“I have got this information from several of my friends who work in big cities. I am convinced as the local officials have not answered my queries. My own uncle, who worked in Delhi, died a month after having both vaccine shots. What more proof do I need,” he asked.

Mohd Ahsan, another resident, was also unwilling to take the jab.

“Is there a guarantee that we will not get infected after the vaccine? There are many in adjoining village who rushed to take the vaccine and then got infected. Why is the government pushing for vaccination-they should give it to those who want it,” he stated.

“Rumours”

Besides this, rumours abound in the village that the vaccine causes ‘impotence’ and this is mainly responsible for driving the men away.

On Sunday evening, a group of people in Sisoda village in Barabanki district had jumped into the Saryu river after seeing a team of health officials.

The health team had gone to the village to give Covid vaccination to the local residents.

Sub-Divisional Magistrate of Ramnagar tehsil, Rajiv Kumar Shukla, said about 200 people of the village ran away from the village because of the fear of vaccine and reached the Saryu shore. When the health team reached the river, these people jumped into the river.

“A poisonous injection”

Shukla said he made the villagers understand the importance and benefits of vaccination, and tried to dispel the myths, following which only 18 people in the village got the jabs.

The villagers said they jumped into the river because some people had told them that this was not a vaccine, but a poisonous injection.

It took a great deal of convincing to get people come out of the river.

Sisoda is a village with a population of 1,500 people located in the Terai, 70 km from the district headquarters of Barabanki.

Nodal Officer Rahul Tripathi said that they were continuing efforts to convince the local people about the benefits of vaccination and also dispel misconceptions.

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has announced reward for Covid-free villages with ‘Mera Gaon-Corona Mukt Gaon‘ campaign.

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Illegal logging of rainforests on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi surged by 70% in 2020, according to findings by local NGO JURnal Celebes.

The group attributes the increase to monitoring activities by forestry authorities being scaled back as part of wider mobility restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Illegal logging is especially rampant in the region of Mahalona Raya in East Luwu district, at the nexus of the k-shaped island, according to Mustam Arif, director of JURnal Celebes. Locals have reported an increased in logging activities in the region, including the sound of chainsaws and daily truck traffic. Most of the logs are transported to sawmills in Wawondula village.

According to JURnal Celebes, illegal logging has occurred for a long time in Mahalona, but increased in intensity during the pandemic.

Mustam said locals in Towuti subdistrict in Mahalona also clear forests to plant black pepper.

“This commodity’s price has been high in the past few years even though it’s fluctuating,” he said. “Locals in East Luwu are very enthusiastic about planting black pepper.”

Locator map of Indonesian province of South Sulawesi showing provincial boundaries. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Muhammad Amin, a forestry official overseeing law enforcement in Sulawesi for the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, said the pandemic had made it harder for law enforcers to do their work, with virtual monitoring not as effective as on-the-ground monitoring. Verifying and investigating reports is also much harder to do remotely, he added.

Mustam said the government should work together with local communities by involving them in forest monitoring.

“We recommend to not ignore illegal logging as it continues to degrade forests and slowly it will cause disasters, climate change and the loss of biodiversity and food sources,” he said.

From 2000 to 2017, South Sulawesi lost 335,038 hectares (827,897 acres) of rainforest, an area three times the size of Hong Kong, with illegal logging being one of the main drivers of deforestation there.

Forest area in Mahalona, Luwu Timur district, South Sulawesi, Indonesia, which has been degraded due to illegal logging. Image courtesy of JURnal Celebes.

Political players

While JURnal Celebes found locals were involved in cutting down trees, it says the scale of the clearing suggests they may be funded by well-resourced businesspeople.

It also found a high degree of coordination in the collection of the illegally logged wood and its subsequent transportation by truck to pooling stations or directly to mills. This indicates the activity is likely an organized crime.

Despite this, it’s often locals who are arrested by law enforcers, while the businesspeople profiting from the illegal logging enjoy impunity, according to Mustam.

“Locals who log trees will be nabbed by officers if they don’t have the time to flee. They’ll be prosecuted,” he said. “Meanwhile, businesspeople are rarely prosecuted even though they’re actually the owners of the illegal logs.”

Mustam said these actors likely avoid prosecution by bribing the locals to stay silent. Another explanation is that the locals genuinely don’t know who the actors behind the operations are.

“Observers suspect the actors from the buyer side or people behind the illegal timber business are able to break the chain [of information] to cover their footsteps,” Mustam said.

Of all the illegal logging cases monitored by JURnal Celebes, only one case featured a non-villager perpetrator being arrested by authorities. In that event, a forest encroachment violation in a conservation area in Ko’mara village, Takalar district, police initially arrested a local, who was subsequently tried and convicted in court. Police then developed the case further, which led them to the deputy speaker of the Takalar legislative council, Muhammad Jabir Bonto. They charged him in the case in early 2021.

Jabir, a senior member of the Golkar Party, is suspected of cutting down trees in the conservation area without permits.

Illegal logging in a protected forest area in Mahalona, Luwu Timur district, South Sulawesi province, Indonesia. Image courtesy of JURnal Celebes.

Slump in legal logging

As illegal logging ramps up, the legal logging industry is experiencing a slump, with businesses’ revenue taking a hit of up to 70% during the pandemic, according to JURnal Celebes.

Mustam attributed the slowdown to decreasing demand, as well as a surplus of supply from illegal loggers flooding the market and undercutting legitimate businesses.

If this situation is left unaddressed, illegal logging and the illegal timber trade will continue to flourish, affecting the implementation of Indonesia’s timber legality verification system, or SVLK, which was introduced in 2009, Mustam said.

The SVLK system is meant to ensure all parties in the timber supply chain obtain their wood and timber products from sustainably managed forests and conduct their trading operations in accordance with existing laws and regulations. But more than a decade since the SVLK came into force, a small amount of timber from illegally logged areas still enters the legal supply chain.

“From 25 companies monitored by JURnal Celebes, there are only six that have SVLK certificates,” Mustam said.

JURnal Celebes called on the government to ramp up law enforcement in the region and increase the local implementation of the SVLK system.

“Because this [SVLK] is the best instrument in the world in sustainable forest management to curb deforestation rate,” Mustam said.

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Translated by Hans Nicholas Jong

Featured image: Illegal logging is still rampant in Aceh’s forests and sometimes the perpetrators use weapons to fight back law enforcers. Image by Junaidi Hanafiah/Mongabay-Indonesia.

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Last week, Pakistan categorically denied that it would provide military bases for US forces amid rampant speculation that it has agreed to a post-troop withdrawal from Afghanistan deal that will facilitate Washington’s regional counterterrorism operations.

The rumors deepened when General Kenneth McKenzie Jr, commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), recently made a policy statement to the US Senate saying that a fraction of US forces will remain stationed nearby Afghanistan after the troops’ fully withdraw from the country by September 11.

McKenzie said that the Biden administration was busy consulting several of the landlocked country’s neighbors to keep Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda militants in check through counterterrorism operations from outside Afghanistan.

Equally intriguing was a telephone call US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made last month to Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa, in which the military leaders reportedly discussed “the situation arising out of the drawdown in Afghanistan.”

They also discussed “regional stability and the US-Pakistan bilateral relationship.” Austin reportedly expressed his desire to continue “working together on shared goals and objectives in the region.”

Meanwhile, reports that Pakistan intends to open a new airbase in the Nasirabad area of Balochistan province have kept the rumor mill churning that Islamabad has already tacitly granted basing rights to the US military for counterterrorism operations.

Military analysts say that the Jacobabad base in Sindh province, which served to provide logistical support to US and allied forces in Afghanistan since 2001, is specially designated to deploy US F-16s, as US authorities do not allow F-16s to be based in hangars with other planes.

An aerial view of the Jacobabad base in Sindh province in Pakistan. Image: Wikipedia

The new airbase at Balochistan, the same analysts say, will most likely act as an additional facility to deploy JF-17 Block-3 aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and for logistics systems.

JF-17 block-3, a multirole two-seater jet built with Chinese collaboration, is Pakistan’s most futuristic fighter, made with more modern technology than the Indian Air Force’s Rafael jets.

Shahid Raza, an Islamabad-based strategic affairs analyst, told Asia Times that it was still unlikely that Pakistan will accede to America’s request for basing rights.

He said that US authorities requested military base access from Pakistan during the Afghanistan Doha peace process but Islamabad remained noncommittal.

“The military strategists know very well that it won’t benefit Pakistan in the long run, notwithstanding some short-term gains in the resumption of coalition support funds, supply of naval ships, delivery of held up gunship helicopters and F-16 jets,” he added.

Shahid said Pakistan cannot risk annoying China, which has become Pakistan’s major arms supplier and financer since 2016, when US-Pakistan military cooperation ended.

The relationship deteriorated after the US launched a unilateral raid in Pakistan in May 2011 that assassinated al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden, who was hiding in a compound in Abbottabad suspiciously near a Pakistan military base.

“China will not buy the rationale that the bases are Afghanistan-centric because the presence of foreign troops in the region would not only worry Beijing but Tehran and Moscow would also get upset,” Shahid claimed.

“The moment you allow the US military bases in the country, China will interpret it as an extension of the US Indo-pacific strategy, which they consider [a] China containment strategy and may roll back the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and withdraw other facilities including soft loans, military cooperation and diplomatic support,” he said.

Shahid said a US basing agreement could also compromise Pakistan’s sensitive installations to US surveillance.

From 2016 to now, there has been virtually no military cooperation between the US and Pakistan, nor has Islamabad purchased or ordered any US-made military equipment over the period. But analysts say Pakistan is overdue for military upgrades that the US could potentially provide.

“Pakistan needs to beef up its naval strength by making a five-times expansion in its existing size, strength and assets to enhance its compatibility.

In his briefing, McKenzie warned Pakistan that the “regrouping of the militant of Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda” in the aftermath of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan would be the biggest concern for Pakistan and other states bordering the conflict-ridden country.

“Al-Qaeda and IS militants will be able to regenerate if pressure is not kept on them, which will be very concerning to the neighboring states mainly Pakistan,” he said. In the same breath, Mckenzie also hinted at “working with nations surrounding Afghanistan to base troops and aircraft for countering terrorists after the US pullout.”

Shahid maintains that Pakistan has recently improved its capability to counter threats from local and foreign terror organizations. Islamabad, he said, was well prepared for such an eventuality.

“The situation has since been changed and the Pakistan army is now in a better position to take on the foreign militants,” he claimed.

He said that tens of thousands of Pakistani troops posted at the border with Afghanistan are now checking the infiltration of militants. “They pushed the foreign militants back to Afghanistan from its territory and made an 800-kilometer-long trench at the Balochistan border to foil their designs,” he claimed.

Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters on the march in Afghanistan in a file photo. Image: Facebook

Jan Achakzai, ex-adviser to Pakistan’s Balochistan provincial government, told Asia Times that granting basing rights to the US would be disastrous for Pakistan.

“At most Pakistan can allow its airspace for search-and-rescue operations in terms of Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) and the Airlines of Communication (ALOC) agreements reached with the US authorities back in 2001, after the 9/11 debacle,” he said.

The US engagements in Afghanistan, he said, were only possible through the GLOC and ALOC mechanisms.

Achakzai underlined concerns about the possible reaction of China, Iran and Russia and ruled out any covert facilitation of the US request that could annoy the rival powers.

“Islamabad would not like to see Washington give any sleepless nights to Beijing, Tehran and Moscow as they used to give in the Cold War era when the US Lockheed U-2 reconnaissance aircraft would spy on Russia from Pakistan’s Peshawar airbase,” he recalled.

Another redline, he said, concerns the radicalized right-wing political forces who galvanize new anti-American sentiments among the masses if Islamabad allowed US military bases on Pakistani soil.

“These elements would provoke resentments and create political instability in the country if the government succumbed to the US pressure,” he warned.

The history of US-Pakistan military cooperation dates back to 1959 when then-military dictator General Ayub Khan allowed US forces to use the Badaber airbase in Peshawar for intelligence-gathering and spying on the erstwhile Soviet Union.

As many as 800 personnel and an equal number of supporting staff were then staffed at the base. The Badaber base remained operative until 1970 when the Pakistan Air Force resumed control.

Military dictator General Pervez Musharraf also granted the US basing rights at Jacobabad Airbase (Sindh), Shamsi Airbase (Balochistan), Dalbandin base (Balochistan), Pasni base (Balochistan) and Samungli base (Balochistan).

These bases gave US forces logistical support for their units in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom from 2001 to 2014.

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How India Lost Its Way in Persian Gulf

May 25th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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There have been two successive setbacks in the past one-year period to the India-Iran relationship. India has been literally eased out of two strategically important projects in Iran that were full of promise to uplift the ties in a medium and long term perspective. 

The first was in July when Tehran dropped India from the planned construction of a rail line from Chabahar port to Zahedan, along the border with Afghanistan. 

The second has been the Iranian decision to award to a local company a contract worth USD 1.78 billion for the development of Farzad B Gas Field in the Persian Gulf, which India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd had discovered way back in 2008. Plainly put, India has been booted out of the project

In both cases, there was considerable delay on India’s part to negotiate a mutually satisfactory arrangement at government-to-government level, which apparently left Tehran with no choice but to proceed with the implementation of the projects without the involvement of Indian public sector companies. 

Having said that, it was a political decision no doubt that Tehran took, considering the highly strategic nature of the two projects for not only bilateral ties but regional politics as well. While Farzad B Gas Field would have strengthened India’s energy security, the Chabahar-Zahedan rail line would be a vital link in regional connectivity for India with land-locked Afghanistan and the Central Asian region. In the latter case, India’s capacity to play an effective political role in Afghanistan could get impaired.

Fundamentally, these setbacks are to be attributed to the lack of strategic clarity in India’s policies toward Iran and the Persian Gulf region on the whole. Certain serious aberrations had crept into the Indian regional policies in the Persian Gulf in the recent 3-4 years since 2017 that negatively impacted Iran’s core strategic interests. 

To recap, in a marked departure from the traditional policy not to take sides in the perennial inter-state tensions in the Persian Gulf between Iran and the GCC states, India began to identify itself with the countries of the anti-Iran regional front that the former US President Donald Trump was sponsoring — involving Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 

How far the US encouraged India to be a ‘swing’ state to give ballast to the Israel-Saudi-UAE front or whether the Indian ‘tilt’ was a suo moto decision is a moot point today. Most likely, it was a combination of both templates, stemming out of a deeply flawed Indian assessment of the geopolitics of the West Asian region. 

Indian policy got predicated on an entirely unwarranted assumption that the US-led Israel-Saudi-Emirati bandwagon was irrevocably on the ascendance in regional politics and it would be advantageous for India to get on board as a fellow traveller. 

Indeed, Indian strategic community contributed significantly to this mishap. With the signing of the Abraham Accords last August, Indian analysts were convinced that the country’s regional strategies in the Persian Gulf and West Asian region would be best served by forging even closer links with the Us-Israeli-Saudi-Emirati axis.

Two op-Eds in the Indian Express newspaper at that time titled India’s geopolitical interests are in close alignment with moderate Arab centreand India must seize the new strategic possibilities with the Gulf  and a piece penned by a former Indian diplomat in the Times of Israel titled Why India supports the Abraham Accord stand out as forceful presentation of the case. (here, here and here)  

Unfortunately, the seductive arguments propagating the US-Israeli-Saudi-Emirati axis were falling on very receptive ears in the corridors of power in Delhi. They happened to fit in perfectly with the policy trajectory to give gravitas to the nascent quasi-alliance between India and steadily elevate it to a military alliance dovetailing with Washington’s so-called Indo-Pacific strategy against China in the geopolitical space from Western Pacific to the Indian Ocean. 

Wasn’t India aware that the raison d’être of the US-Israeli-Saudi-Emirati front aimed at isolating Iran in its region and overthrowing the established regime in that country? Of course, Trump and his regional allies had left Delhi in no doubt whatsoever on that score. But, simply put, Delhi had no qualms over it, although Iran has been traditionally a friendly country that never encroached upon India’s vital interests and had consistently sought a close friendly partnership with India. 

Without doubt, Tehran began noticing the shift in the Indian attitudes. While Delhi’s muted response to the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (December 2017) signalled new churning, the enthusiastic welcome that Delhi extended to the Abraham Accords (August 2020) would have made Tehran sit up. 

Indeed, Delhi kept silent when Iran’s Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani was killed (January 2020) on Trump’s orders and when a top Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated by Israel. Delhi no longer bothered to hide its special relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia with accent on security cooperation, notwithstanding the two countries’ growing hostility toward Iran. In retrospect, India was cruising through a fantasyland, completely out of touch with the realities. 

Then the inevitable happened in a rapid sequence — Trump lost the November election; Biden swung toward putting the US’ alliance with the Saudi regime under scanner; US began debating retrenchment from the West Asian region so as to focus on the Asia-Pacific; US stance on Palestinian issue reverted to the default position; and, most important, disregarding protests by Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Biden decided to engage with Iran. 

Of course, the lifting of the US sanctions against Iran, which is on the horizon, will completely realign the security scenario in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already scrambling to engage Iran on their own initiative to cope with the profound transition that is expected in regional security. Above all, the notions stemming out of the Abraham Accords have died a sudden death. Th current conflict in Gaza even accentuates Israel’s isolation. 

Meanwhile, Iran’s surge is in the cards. The lifting of US sanctions and ensuing integration into the world economy will dramatically change the geopolitics of Iran. Iran is a very rich country, and with or without India’s cooperation, it will embark on an ambitious programme of economic reconstruction. Symptomatic of it is the recent 25-year, $400 billion pact of economic cooperation with China. 

From the Indian perspective, the easing of tensions in Iran’s problematic relationship with Saudi Arabia should be seized as a window of opportunity to inject new dynamism into the Indian policy. India should quietly bury the disastrous Gulf policy trajectory of the recent years built on wrong assumptions and act quickly to revive the verve of the Iran-India cooperation. Reviving the purchase of Iranian oil could be a first step. The road to Tehran will soon get crowded. 

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Abstract

 Despite its oft-stated commitment to non-interference in the domestic affairs of foreign countries, the People’s Republic of China has intervened on many levels in Burma’s conflict-ridden society, both before and after 1988. It is in 2021 Burma’s largest economic partner in terms of trade, aid and investment, and has fit Burma into its continent- and ocean-spanning One Belt/One Road Initiative. In chronically unstable border areas, it has a major influence on armed insurgent groups such as the Kokang Group and the United Wa State Army. Beijing’s top priority has been to ensure political stability, and it found Aung San Suu Kyi a willing and able partner after she became “State Counselor” in 2016. But the coup d’etat of February 1, 2021 has cast a shadow over the Beijing-Naypyidaw relationship and Burma’s future.

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This article assesses relations between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, or Burma, in light of the military coup d’état which took place on February 1, 2020. This event caused an unexpected crisis in ties between the two neighboring countries, which the Burmese have traditionally described as pauk paw relations, those between “distant cousins.

The well-known proverb, “sleeping in the same bed, dreaming different dreams,” aptly describes this relationship, especially since 1988. In that year, the isolationist, socialist regime of General Ne Win collapsed and was violently replaced by a younger generation of generals, initially loyal to Ne Win, who formed a junta known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC, after 1997 known as the State Peace and Development Council). Both before and after this power seizure, the Burmese military killed thousands of demonstrators nationwide.

Consciously, the generals sought to mimic China’s economic success by fostering economic liberalization while retaining a tight grip on political power, a strategy that was also being followed by communist Vietnam since the opening of its 1986 Doi Moi reforms. They had considerable sympathy for Deng Xiaoping when he ordered the suppression of political dissidents, resulting in the Tiananmen massacre in Beijing on June 4, 1989. Deng’s determination to aggressively protect the supremacy of the Chinese Communist Party and prevent any alternative, more democratic political evolution found resonance in the leadership of the Tatmadaw, Burma’s armed forces, and some observers suggest that Deng’s use of violent force had been inspired by the Tatmadaw’s suppression of protesters the year before (Seekins, 1997: 532).

A series of foreign investment laws were decreed by the junta following the establishment of the SLORC on September 18, 1988, but the generals’ dreams of Burma becoming the next “tiger” economy in Southeast Asia were thwarted not only by their own inept and corrupt management, but also by sanctions imposed by western countries, especially the United States and the European Union. Even Japan, Burma’s largest donor of official development aid (ODA) at the time, exercised self-restraint in extending new loans and grants during the SLORC/SPDC years (Seekins, 2007: 115-148). China and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (especially Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia) ignored the call for sanctions by the West and endeavoured to enrich themselves through “constructive engagement” with Burma’s junta. One of the first steps in the development of a flourishing Sino-Burmese economic relationship was the normalization of legal trade along the 2,227 kilometre-long border between Burma and China in 1989 and the sale of weapons by Beijing to Rangoon the following year, which totalled the equivalent of some US$1.0-US$1.4 billion (Lintner, 1999: 387-389, 470).

There were some rough spots in Sino-Burmese relations after 1988, including in 2009 when fighting broke out between the Tatmadaw and insurgents belonging to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MDNAA, also known as the Kokang Group) in the Kokang region of northeast Shan State, which caused 37,000 largely Han Chinese Kokang people to flee to Chinese soil (Seekins, 2017: 306). In March 2015, bombs were mistakenly dropped by the Burmese air force across the border in Yunnan Province, killing five Chinese nationals; Beijing responded saying it would take stern action if such an incident happened again. Analyst Sun Yun wrote that this was “the worst day in Sino-Myanmar relations since 1967,” when the Chinese embassy was attacked and many Chinese nationals killed (“Selling the Silk Road Spirit,” 2019).

In 2011, the SPDC junta was replaced by a hybrid civilian-military government under the 2008 Constitution and it seemed that President (and retired General) Thein Sein was departing from the Chinese model by promoting political as well as economic liberalization. A highly sensitive issue in bilateral ties was his decision to suspend construction of the giant Myitsone Dam in northernmost Kachin State, which was to generate electricity primarily for China’s Yunnan Province rather than Burma (Seekins, 2017: 372, 373). In some ways a bolder democratic reformer than Aung San Suu Kyi herself after she gained power in 2015, Thein Sein said the completion of the dam required the complete understanding of Burma’s people (Thant Myint-U, 2020, 145-147; Sun Yun, 2012: 58, 59).

The priorities of Burma’s ruling generals were to pursue economic development utilizing China’s aid and investment. Moreover, the Tatmadaw came to depend on imports of made-in-China arms after 1989, although it also acquired weapons and militarily-applicable technology from Russia, Israel, Singapore, and, reportedly, North Korea. Various border groups, including the United Wa State Army, the Kachin Independence Army and the MDNAA, relied on China’s financial or other support to keep their movements viable while “crony capitalists” close to the ruling generals benefited from China’s growing economic presence after 1989, especially in Upper or central Burma and the country’s second largest city, Mandalay.

Founding of the China-Burma Friendship Association in 1952 (Public Domain)

The chief interest of China’s central government in Beijing has been to promote political stability inside Burma not only to profit from its internal markets and exploit its abundant natural resources (especially energy resources), but also to further an emerging geopolitical vision of the country serving as a means of “connectivity” between China and the Indian Ocean and beyond. In 2013, President Xi Jinping announced his ambitious One Belt, One Road Initiative, in which Burma became a key piece in Beijing’s geopolitical jigsaw puzzle, extending its influence into areas that previously had not historically been subject to the expansion of Chinese military, political or cultural power: South Asia (with the exception of an increasingly antagonistic India), West Asia, East and Central Europe and Africa, where China has a large and growing economic presence.1

Chinese fears that after Daw Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, won a landslide victory in the General Election of November 2015 she would promote closer relations with the West at China’s expense proved unfounded. As western countries grew increasingly critical of her after she expressed indifference to the Tatmadaw’s persecution of Muslim Rohingyas in Rakhine (Arakan) State in 2017, it became clear that Beijing provided for her, as well as for the generals with whom she uneasily co-existed, an indispensable alternative in order to evade a possible new rollout of western sanctions. Her visit to the International Court of Justice in The Hague in 2019 to deny that the Tatmadaw had been involved in genocide of Rohingyas only reaffirmed this pivot away from her former western supporters toward China and other Asian countries.

The coup d’état of February 1, 2021, however, upset the expectations of both Daw Suu Kyi and the Chinese. There is evidence to suggest that Beijing had very mixed feelings about the establishment of a new martial law regime, the State Administration Council (SAC), headed by commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. These reservations seemed to increase after the SAC began escalating deadly violence against civilian protesters, most of them unarmed, leading to more than 740 deaths of ordinary citizens, including children, by late April. With long-term instability and even civil war inside Burma almost a certainty, the coup threatens not only specific Chinese economic interests but their ambitious vision of the One Belt/One Road, still promoted as a centrepiece of Xi Jinping’s diplomacy in 2021.

Sino-Burmese Relations before 1962

The histories of Burma and Vietnam, both located on the Indochina Peninsula, reveal a striking contrast: while (northern) Vietnam became a Chinese colony during the Han Dynasty and gained its independence only in 939 CE, resisting numerous invasions by China in the centuries following, Burma was largely shielded from projections of Chinese power by the existence of non-Chinese states in what is now Yunnan Province, which forms Burma’s entire land border with China. The state of Nan Zhao was not only a formidable opponent of the Tang Dynasty, but also extended its power into the central valley of the Irrawaddy River in Burma before entering into decline, to be succeeded by the state of Dali. Only in the thirteenth century, after Kublai Khan’s Mongol forces subjugated Dali and occupied Yunnan, did they enter territory controlled by unified Burma’s first royal house, the Pagan Dynasty (1044-ca. 1300), and contributed to its collapse early in the fourteenth century. The last major king of that dynasty, Narathihapate (r. 1254-1287), earned the inglorious title “the king who fled from the Chinese” (Seekins, 2017: 378, 379).2

Although a majority of Burma’s different ethnic groups speak languages related in some degree to Chinese, the evolution of Burma’s state, society and culture was deeply influenced by India rather than China, as reflected in its political and social thought, art, literature, customs and – above all – religion. Ninety percent of Burma’s population are adherents to Theravada Buddhism, which has been influenced profoundly by religious exchanges with Buddhist kingdoms in Sri Lanka.

Although a Manchu army invaded central Burma in the mid-17th century in search of one of the last princes of the Ming imperial house, it was only in the mid-eighteenth century that the Qing Dynasty posed a serious threat to Burma, now ruled by kings of the Konbaung Dynasty (1752-1885). During the 1760s, the Manchus launched several unsuccessful campaigns motivated by a dispute between the Burmese and Qing over control of the Shan (Tai) princedoms in what are now Yunnan and eastern Burma. Finally, a major invasion led by Ming Rui, a son-in-law of the Qian Long Emperor, and including elite Manchu and Mongol troops was initiated, but it too was defeated by Burmese armies led by the intrepid general Maha Thiha Thiru in 1769. The reigning king at that time, Hsinbyushin (1763-1776), earned the title “the king who fought the Chinese.” His military reputation was enhanced by the fact that while the Sino-Burmese War was taking place, his armies had also invaded Siam and captured the Thai capital of Ayuthia in 1767.3 The Sino-Burmese Treaty of Kaungton included, as a face-saving measure, the promise of the Burmese to send a tribute mission to Beijing every ten years to pay homage to the Qing Emperor; but a major result of the war was the establishment of a rough boundary between Shan States ruled by China and those ruled by Burma which was recognized up to the end of the British colonial period and formed the basis for the contemporary boundary agreement between Burma and China in 1961 (Seekins, 2017: 147, 148, 250).

The Chinese presence in Burma was stabilized during the period of British colonial rule. Having annexed Lower Burma in wars occurring in 1824-1826 and 1852, the British occupied Upper Burma and its royal capital of Mandalay in 1885, sending King Thibaw into exile in India and bringing an end to the Konbaung Dynasty. The British-enforced colonial economy carried out limited direct trade with China, which was then in a state of considerable instability, save for commerce initiated by so-called “mountain Chinese,” also known as Panthays, a Muslim minority located in Yunnan whose pack trains wound their way south as far as Rangoon. They had carried out a revolt against the Qing authorities in Yunnan between 1856 and 1873 but found safety under the umbrella of British rule.

Kokang, a small state located in the eastern Shan States, was established by Chinese supporters of the Ming Dynasty fleeing the Manchus in the seventeenth century. Its hereditary ruler or heng, a member of the Yang family, controlled a small population of Han Chinese and indigenous ethnic groups. In the early twentieth century, Kokang became a centre for the notorious cultivation and trade in opium which served a huge market in China (Seekins, 2017: 305, 306).

Large cities such as Rangoon (Yangon), Moulmein (Mawlamyine) and Mandalay had overseas Chinese communities, mostly people from Guangdong and Fujian Provinces similar to those residing in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Ties between Overseas Chinese in Lower (southern) Burma and those living in the British-ruled Straits Settlements, especially Penang, were strong (Thaw Kaung, 2004). Rangoon’s “Chinatown” (B. Tayoketan) is still located in the western part of the city’s central business district (Latha and Lanmadaw Townships), a distinct area the streets of which are lined with Chinese temples, restaurants and shops, of which gold shops are particularly prominent.

In 1931, the colonial capital of Rangoon had a population of only around 7.6 percent (Overseas) Chinese, mostly located in Tayoketan, while residents of South Asian origin comprised the majority, or 53.2 percent. Indigenous Burmese comprised only 35 percent (Seekins, 2011: 39). These demographics show that the economic focus of Rangoon and Lower Burma was on British India (present-day India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) rather than on China. In fact, until 1937, Burma was a province of British India. Between South Asians, mostly Hindus and Muslims, and Buddhist Burmese there was considerable racial friction and even violence during the colonial era; but relations between the indigenous people and Chinese residents tended to be more amicable, due in large measure to the fact that as in Thailand, the Chinese often assimilated into Burmese society and even adopted the Theravada Buddhist religion (Ibid., 39-41; Lintner, 1999: 67).

The famous “Burma Road” linking the port of Rangoon with the Yunnan capital of Kunming and Jiang Jieshi’s wartime capital of Chongqing was constructed in the late 1930s by the Allies to provide Jiang’s government with vital wartime supplies.4 However, it was cut off by Japanese forces in 1942. In the unsuccessful attempt to defend Burma from Japanese occupation, British forces fought alongside the Kuomintang army in northern Burma. Although the Japanese did not extend their control into Yunnan, which was ruled by a local warlord, Long Yun, the Burma-China border became a vital front in the War. A remote area that had been previously the neglected “backyard” of both China and Burma began to be part of a huge “geography lesson” learned by wartime newspaper readers in New York, London, New Delhi and Tokyo. In 1944, “Merrill’s Marauders,” an American military unit, entered northern Burma from India and captured the airstrip at Myitkyina in what is now Kachin State, lost it to a Japanese counter-offensive and then recaptured it in August. From Myitkyina, Allied aircraft could fly more easily to bring supplies to Jiang’s wartime capital. The Allies also built the 1,726 kilometre-long Ledo Road, which connected India and China by land via northern Burma (Seekins, 2017: 125, 320, 347, 575-577). Because of the War, the hitherto remote Burma-China border area was opened up, temporarily, to the outside world and Myitkyina’s airport became one of the busiest in the world.

Although British forces, composed largely of Indian soldiers, liberated (or re-occupied) the country in 1945, fighting bloody battles in Upper Burma, the British colonial period was almost at an end. Burma achieved independence on January 4, 1948, and nationalist leader U Nu became prime minister of the new Union of Burma.

Relations between the Union of Burma and the People’s Republic of China, officially proclaimed in October 1949, were cordial. Prime Minister U Nu, who would become a fervent proponent of the Non-Aligned Movement, was the first non-Soviet bloc leader to recognize the communist regime. Rangoon and Beijing found a common purpose when so-called Chinese Irregular Forces, loyal to the Nationalists or Kuomintang, sought to open a “second front” against the communists (the first being Taiwan) in the China-Burma border region. Although a joint military operation by China’s People’s Liberation Army and the Tatmadaw dealt a hard blow to these intruders in 1961, their remnants continued to play a major role in local unrest and the opium economy inside the infamous “Golden Triangle.” The appearance of the Chinese Irregular Forces in the Shan States also led to great tension between U Nu’s government and Washington, since the US Central Intelligence Agency underwrote the establishment of Kuomintang bases in this corner of Burma (Seekins, 2017: 309; Lintner, 1999: 111-120).

A major achievement of the government of U Nu was completion of a border agreement with China in January 1961, which resulted in the mutual exchange of small patches of territory (Seekins, 2017: 144, 145). But loss of territory in Kachin State to the Chinese alienated the local Kachins, and was a factor in their establishment of a major ethnic armed organization, the Kachin Independence Army, during the 1960s (Lintner, 1999: 486).

Sino-Burmese Relations during the Ne Win Period, 1962-1988

Prime Minister U Nu approved of a temporary “Caretaker Government” headed by Tatmadaw commander General Ne Win to deal with deep conflict among civilian politicians (it lasted from 28 October 1958 to April 1960), but Burma entered a long, dark valley of military rule, lasting for decades, following Ne Win’s coup d’état of March 2, 1962. He set up a Revolutionary Council (RC) composed of military officers who ran the country by decree and also established a “revolutionary party” known as the Burma Socialist Programme Party, or BSPP, with a parallel hierarchy which controlled state organs in a manner similar to the communist parties in China and the Soviet Union. The RC shut down most trade and other links with the outside world and pushed development of a self-sufficient socialist economy based on state ownership and management of major economic enterprises, which left the country suspended in a time warp of deepening poverty. The economy of the “Burmese Road to Socialism” was comprised of 23 state-owned corporations and a burgeoning black market that expanded to include a growing portion of the real as opposed to the official economy.

Chinese President Liu Shaoqi with Ne Win in 1966. (Public Domain)

Ne Win, whose original name was Shu Maung, was Sino-Burmese. However, he was careful to downplay his half-Chinese identity in order to solidify his image as a Burmese, or Burman, patriot.

Relations with Beijing continued to be cordial, including the provision of aid to Burma by the Chinese government; but as China fell into the throes of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution in the mid-1960s, this changed abruptly. Schools had been nationalized and “Burmanized” under the Ne Win regime, but in Rangoon there were large numbers of restive ethnic Chinese students. When the Chinese embassy encouraged these students to support the Cultural Revolution by holding “struggle sessions” and wearing badges with Mao Zedong’s portrait on them, riots broke out in June 1967 between them and local Burmese, who were resentful over Chinese domination of the black market. In what were probably the worst riots since the colonial period, Burmese mobs killed local Chinese (the official number was 50, but the Chinese claimed there were several hundred victims) and burned their houses and shops. At the end of June, the mobs went on to attack the Chinese Embassy, and one of its officials was killed. The Chinese responded by withdrawing their ambassador, cutting off aid to Burma and using its media to condemn Ne Win as a “fascist” dictator. Many Overseas Chinese fled Burma. There was evidence that in order to find an outlet for popular economic frustrations under socialism, Ne Win secretly encouraged rioters to attack the Chinese (Mya Maung, 1992: 14, 15).

On January 1, 1968, Chinese-trained and equipped troops of the People’s Army (PA), the armed force of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), stormed across the China-Burma border in northeast Shan State. They and subsequent reinforcements easily defeated local forces who were either independent or connected in some way to the Ne Win regime. The People’s Army soon became the strongest regional insurgency facing the Tatmadaw. It established bases, supported by China, in Kokang, the Wa districts and other parts of Shan State and regularly threw back Tatmadaw offensives sent against them by the central government. Although the aim of the new communist Northeast Command was the overthrow of Ne Win’s regime, it was never able to gain, or regain, military or political influence inside central Burma, where the majority Burmans lived and where the CPB had been previously active. Although the party’s leadership was Burman, by the 1980s most of the PA’s 15,000 soldiers were members of local ethnic minorities

Although many observers believe Chinese backing for the January 1968 establishment of communist bases in Shan State was meant to “punish” Ne Win for the anti-Chinese riots of the previous year, there is ample evidence to suggest that some form of Beijing-backed intervention had been planned and organised as far back as 1962, when Ne Win came to power.

China-Burma relations were normalized after the riots, and regular diplomatic ties restored, but the China-supported insurgency continued on the “two track” principle: that the Chinese state could have regular diplomatic ties with a foreign country like Burma, but the Chinese Communist Party would continue to pursue its own “fraternal relations” with the local communist party (Seekins, 1997: 528). During the 1950s and 1960s, about 140 members of the Communist Party of Burma sojourned in China, waiting for the opportunity to return home when the time was right for socialist revolution (Lintner, 1999: 170).

The Men who “Made Deals with the Chinese,” 1988-2011

If Narathihapate was the “king who fled from the Chinese” and Hsinbyushin was the “king who fought the Chinese,” the leaders of Burma’s second junta, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, were the men who “made deals with the Chinese.

In 1988, the greatest obstacle to deeper engagement between Rangoon and Beijing was the presence of the People’s Army in Shan State, though China’s support for this insurgency gradually declined over the years after it had entered Burma’s frontier region in 1968, causing it to increase opium sales in order to maintain its financial support (Seekins, 1997: 528). However, in March-April 1989 an event of immense importance took place: a mutiny of ethnic minority soldiers, mostly Wa, against the Burman leadership of the CPB, which led to the return of those leaders to exile in China and breakup of the People’s Army into four separate forces: the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the largest, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (or Kokang Group), the National Democratic Alliance Army, Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) and the New Democratic Army (NDA) in Kachin State. These movements rejected revolutionary Marxism-Leninism, and devoted themselves to ethnic nationalism and continued participation in the highly lucrative drug trade (Lintner, 1999: 363, 364, 480).

Through the mediation of Lo Hsing-han, a Kokang Chinese who gained notoriety as the “king of the Golden Triangle” for his role in the drug trade, the SLORC was able to negotiate cease-fires with these four groups, which included not only a cessation of hostilities between the Tatmadaw and these reborn, post-communist forces but also recognition of their right to bear arms and control of the territories where they were based. On the SLORC’s side, General Khin Nyunt, the much-feared director of Burma’s Military Intelligence or secret police, played the key role in making these arrangements, which gave him considerable power and influence in the border areas until he was purged in October 2004. The cease-fires, which were expanded to include other ethnic armed organizations such as the Kachin Independence Army, the New Mon State Party, the Mong Tai Army (led by the second “king of the Golden Triangle,” Khun Sa, in central Shan State), and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army – grew to a total of 18 armed groups by 1997 (Seekins, 2017: 136, 137).

The cease-fire system, through which Khin Nyunt assiduously built his power base, had profound consequences for Burma’s border areas, which previously had been largely beyond the Rangoon government’s control. Firstly, it allowed the junta to maintain a “divide and control” policy, preventing the ethnic forces from building a durable united front against the Burman-dominated military regime; and secondly, the period of relative peace in the border areas enabled China to cultivate a major economic presence not only in Shan State and other minority areas, but in Upper Burma as a whole, including the city of Mandalay.

The United Wa State Army commanded by Bao Youxiang prospered because of its major share of the production and export of narcotics by way of Yunnan and northern Thailand. It had, and still has, a well-equipped fighting force of 20,000 to 25,000 men and the infrastructure in and around its “capital” of Panghsang is superior to that of other parts of Burma. In order to expedite the drug trade, the UWSA in 1999 moved approximately 100,000 Wa villagers to the Thai-Burma border near the Thai border town of Tachilek. At that time, the UWSA was the one ethnic armed organisation that matched the Tatmadaw in firepower, a situation that remains true today. In effect, the Wa-dominated areas of Shan State and a patch of territory adjacent to Thailand constitute a nearly independent mini-state (Seekins, 2017: 558, 559).

Since 1989, Chinese involvement in the Burmese economy – and indirectly its society and politics – has involved diverse Chinese, Sino-Burmese and Burmese actors and relationships: the most visible was the support given by the Chinese state directly to the SLORC/SPDC, in the form of economic aid and weapons sales, as well as “moral” support, which was decisive in preventing the United Nations Security Council from taking any sort of concrete action against the junta’s numerous human rights abuses, including large-scale ethnic cleansing of people in minority areas like Shan and Karen States.5 Secondly, Chinese state-owned enterprises, such as Chinese army-owned Northern Industries Company, or NORINCO, formed ambitious joint ventures with companies owned by the Tatmadaw, especially two wholly-owned conglomerates, the Union of Myanmar Economic Corporation (UMEC) and the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings (UMEH). The prevalence of state- or army-owned conglomerates in both countries made economic cooperation between them smoother than dealing with post-socialist Burma’s few private companies of any size. In addition, Chinese private enterprise, much of it based in Yunnan Province, entered Burma on its own and an unknown number of Chinese individuals left their homeland to sojourn inside Burma, much as their forebears had migrated to Lower Burma, Thailand, and the Malay Peninsula.6

Important players in this emerging economic system were the Chinese or Sino-Burmese leaders of ethnic armed organizations who controlled Burma’s flourishing drug economy. The most important figures were the Pheung, or Peng, brothers (Kokang Group), Lo Hsing-han (the first “king of the Golden Triangle”), Yang Molian (Kokang Group), and Khun Sa, also known as Chang Chi-fu (Mong Tai Army, the second “king of the Golden Triangle” after Lo was arrested). Bao Youxiang was an ethnic Wa, but like many of his fellow Was took a Chinese name. Both Lo and Khun Sa lived to enjoy comfortable retirements in Rangoon where they oversaw profitable companies, including Asia World, one of Burma’s largest, whose director was Lo’s son Steven Law (Seekins, 2017: 326).

During the SLORC/SPDC period, the cease-fires in Shan and Kachin States caused a rapid increase in the export of narcotics, including not only opiates but yaabaa (Thai, “crazy medicine”) or “speed” to markets around the world. Burma earned the dubious distinction, alternating with Afghanistan, of being the world’s largest exporter of drugs. The drug warlords acquired huge amounts of cash that needed to be laundered. To find a safe haven for this money, they invested in luxury hotels, housing developments and other projects in Mandalay and Rangoon, most of the purchasers being Chinese. Hlaing Thayar and Mingaladon Townships in Rangoon became the site for several of these developments, which look like upscale suburban housing in Southern California.7

Thant Myint-U quotes a Columbia University economist, Ronald Findlay, who said that “(t)he seed capital of the Burmese economy is heroin . . . if this is an exaggeration, it’s not a huge one” (Thant Myint-U, 2020: 50).

The Chinese presence was especially visible in booming border towns which grew up in the aftermath of the cease-fires. These include Panghsang (former “capital” of the CPB/PA, now controlled by the UWSA), Mong La (controlled by the National Democratic Alliance Army- Eastern Shan State), a vest pocket Sodom-and-Gomorrah popular with Chinese tourists in search of casinos, prostitutes, “ladyboys” and drugs), Muse (which is connected to China by two bridges, the older of which is called the “gun bridge” because shipments of arms from China were conveyed over it) and Ruili opposite Muse on the Chinese side of the border, which in recent years has also enjoyed explosive growth. Ruili and Wanding, another Chinese border town, gained special privileges through their Beijing-granted status as “special economic zones.”

Laiza, on the border with China in Kachin State, is considered the “capital” of the Kachin Independence Army but – perhaps because of the KIA’s largely Baptist leadership – possesses none of the Sodom-and-Gomorrah attractions of Muse or Mong La. In the border towns on the Burmese side, the atmosphere is quite un-Burmese, with Putonghua being spoken widely, Chinese restaurants lining the streets and renminbi being circulated instead of Burmese kyats. Casinos are located inside huge, gaudy hotels reminiscent of Macau or Las Vegas (Seekins, 2017: 316, 359, 364, 424).

Although Beijing stepped in early to develop trade links and provide the Tatmadaw with weapons, the largest quantities of foreign investment during the early SLORC years were provided by neighbouring Thailand and Singapore. China’s investments remained relatively modest until the first years of the 21stcentury, and by 2010-2011 China’s FDI (foreign direct investment) was the largest committed by any country, amounting to an estimated US$13.0 billion (Sun Yun, 2012: 63). Chinese official development assistance (ODA) was only around US$100 million in the mid-1990s, but grew to US$2.2 billion by 2012, making China Burma’s largest aid donor (Mizuno, 2016: 202-208). Chinese money was responsible for opening up the remotest parts of Burma’s frontier region to the outside world, including bridges over many rivers and reconstruction of the famous Ledo and Burma Roads.

In 2011, China became Burma’s largest single trade partner (Ibid., 199-202). Burma-China trade after 1988 began to resemble the “colonial” economies of Southeast Asia before World War II: the export of raw materials in exchange for consumer and manufactured goods. According to this writer:

In the 1993-94 period . . . China’s major exports to Burma were beverages, tobacco, textiles, garments, machinery, vehicles and transport equipment. The most important legal Burmese exports to China were food, wood, lumber, pearls and precious stones. Although Chinese machinery, vehicles and transport equipment can be utilized to upgrade Burma’s industry and infrastructure, most Chinese products, such as the large volume of beverage and tobacco imports, were directed toward “passive” consumer markets in a manner reminiscent of relations between a European metropole and an Asian colony during the early 20th century (Seekins, 1997: 529).

Mandalay, Burma’s second city, was transformed by the Chinese presence (see footnote 6, above). This city, comparable to Kyoto in Japan as a former royal capital and cultural centre, containing many Buddhist monasteries and sacred sites, became one big “Chinatown” as Chinese investors bought up property in its urban centre while local Burmese, unable to afford rising property prices, were forced to move to the city’s outskirts. During 1992-1993, as many as 50,000 Chinese settled in Mandalay, out of a total population of around 1.0 million (Seekins, 1997: 530). A common practice was for the sojourners to purchase the identity cards of deceased local people in northern Burma, whose deaths were not reported to the authorities. Possession of such cards enabled Chinese people to gain a Burmese passport with no questions asked (Lintner, 1993: 26).

Like Shan State and Mandalay, Kachin State felt the impact of the Chinese economic presence with not always beneficial consequences. This was especially true after the KIA signed a cease-fire in 1994. Although the truce marked the end of decades of bitter fighting, in subsequent years the SLORC/SPDC was able to take over many of Kachin State’s rich economic resources, including forests and the mines at Hpakant, which provided wealthy Chinese buyers in China and Southeast Asia with the world’s highest quality “imperial” jade. Many poor people from other parts of Burma worked at the mines under hellish conditions, including landslides that killed hundreds of them. Kachin State’s mountainsides were stripped of trees which were shipped off to China, causing severe environmental damage, and the miners at Hpakant provided Chinese markets with larger and larger quantities of jade, trade which amounted to billions of dollars. In northern Kachin State, the Hukawng Valley has deposits of gold and amber. But neither the KIA nor the local Kachins benefited. A disturbing sign of social decay was that as many as 80 percent of young Kachins were addicted to drugs. In 2011, there was renewed fighting between the Tatmadaw and the KIA, and tens of thousands of Kachins and other minorities were forced to flee their homes (Thant Myint-U, 2020: 169, 198, 199).

One of the more unusual aspects of the Burma-China relationship was “Buddhist diplomacy.” A Buddha tooth relic had been brought from India to China during the Tang Dynasty (618 – 907 CE) and was enshrined at the imperial capital of Chang’an, but fell into obscurity until the early 20th century when it was discovered at a Buddhist monastery outside of Beijing. Although the People’s Republic of China is officially atheist, the Beijing government sent the tooth relic on “visits” to several neighbouring countries where local Buddhists could venerate it. It was sent to Burma in the mid-1950s when Prime Minister U Nu was holding a Great Buddhist Council in Rangoon to celebrate the 2,500 anniversary of Gotama Buddha’s attainment of nibbana (nirvana). As Burma is a country of very devout Buddhists (“to be Burmese is to be Buddhist”), China’s decision to send the relic twice again, in 1994 and 1996-1997 during the SLORC/SPDC era, was a powerful means of legitimizing the bilateral relationship (Seekins, 2017: 120). In November-December 2011, the tooth relic was sent a fourth time to Burma, where it was placed for veneration by devotees at the Uppattasanti Pagoda in the country’s new capital of Naypyidaw for 45 days (Ibid.; Sun Yun, 2012: 65).8

The Myitsone Dam Controversy: A Turning Point?

In early 2011, when the SPDC was dissolved and Thein Sein became Burma’s first president in the “hybrid” civilian-military system defined by the 2008 Constitution, China was working on three major investment projects which were designed to ensure the Middle Kingdom’s energy security and access to vital natural resources. However, each of these three projects was highly controversial. The first was the dual China-Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipelines, which, when they were completed in 2014, ran in a parallel fashion 793 kilometres from Kyaukphyu in Rakhine (Arakan) State by way of centrally-located Magway (Magwe) and Mandalay Regions to Shan State, exiting at the border towns of Muse-Ruili. A joint venture of the Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise and China National Petroleum Company, the pipelines would help alleviate a worrying bottleneck in China’s energy exports from the Middle East and the Shwe Gas Field, offshore from Rakhine State. This was the Straits of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, which since antiquity had guarded the passage to and from the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. If confrontation with the United States and its allies led to closure of the Straits to Chinese shipping by the US Navy, the project would provide cities as far east as Nanning, the capital of China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, with natural gas while the oil pipeline reaches as far as Kunming, Yunnan’s capital.

However, construction of the pipeline aroused opposition inside Burma, since it involved the forcible relocation of people, especially in Rakhine and Shan State, caused environment pollution and will provide the government with as much as US$29.0 billion in royalties for the energy re-exports over 30 years (Seekins, 2017: 148, 149).

The second project is the Letpadaung Copper Mine expansion, located in central Sagaing Region near the town of Monywa, which is a joint venture of the Myanmar Wanbao company, a subsidiary of China’s military-owned Norinco conglomerate, and Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings. In November 2012, after Thein Sein had assumed power and Aung San Suu Kyi had become a member of parliament, police attacked local people demonstrating against the mine, causing 67 injuries. Daw Suu Kyi, as head of a special government investigative committee, visited the site in March of the following year, telling the local people that they should stop their protests because Burma had to meet its contractual obligations with China. This was the first sign of a new, “pragmatic” Suu Kyi. Although it affirmed her image in Chinese eyes as a credible partner in their economic schemes, it caused great disillusionment among her supporters who had thought of her as a fearless advocate of human rights and democracy: as one local resident said: “all we had to eat was boiled rice when we supported you . . . But you are not standing with us anymore” (Ibid., 321, 322).

However, the third project, the Myitsone Dam, located in northern Kachin State, was the most controversial Chinese project as well as the biggest investment approved by the SPDC, costing US$3.6 billion (Sun Yun, 2012: 58). Like other projects, it was designed to provide China, rather than Burma, with electric power. According to Thant Myint-U:

Critics were appalled. The dam would flood an area the size of Singapore, including four villages. Nearly 12,000 people were being relocated. The location of the dam, where two Himalayan rivers joined to form the Irrawaddy, was of considerable cultural importance to the Kachin people. Activists also drew attention to the massive environmental damage that could be caused to the Irrawaddy River itself, the lifeblood of the country. No one knew exactly what was in the contract, but most believed the terms favoured the Chinese and that bribes had been paid to army generals and their crony businessmen (Thant Myint-U, 2020: 145, 146).

During the junta years, the Burmese people would have had to accept the dam project, no questions asked. But under the liberalised administration of Thein Sein, a nationwide movement emerged to halt dam construction, including a petition sent to the government, “From Those who wish the Irrawaddy to Flow Forever,” signed by almost 1,600 influential figures in the country’s public life. People throughout the country wore T-shirts inscribed: “Stop the Myitsone Dam.” Although he had mixed feelings about the dam and feared a negative reaction from China, in September 2011 Thein Sein decided that dam construction would be suspended, at least during the time he was in office (Ibid.). Almost a decade later, work had not been restarted on the dam, not only because of popular opposition and ethnic insurgency but because southwestern China now had a surplus of electrical generating power. However, it has not been formally cancelled, a move which might lead China to seek a legal remedy from the Burmese government for investment money lost (“Selling the Silk Road Spirit,” 2019).

The Chinese government and business interests were shocked, especially since Thein Sein had not consulted them before suspending the project. Relations cooled, and the pace of Chinese investment slowed. Beijing was convinced that the improvement in Burma’s relations with western countries gave the Thein Sein government courage to say “no” to China, since capital from the West and Japan would constitute viable alternatives. However, other major projects, including the oil and gas pipeline, continued, and the attacks against the Rohingyas in northern Rakhine State carried out in 2017 by the Tatmadaw and local vigilantes, leading to over 700,000 of them fleeing to Bangladesh, aroused a firestorm of western criticism. This was focused especially on Daw Suu Kyi, and led to targeted sanctions on some individuals, including commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing, who personally directed the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas (Ibid.). Predictably, Beijing offered support to the government now led by Daw Suu Kyi as “State Counsellor,” and the turbulence in Burma-China relations transitioned into a new era of co-operation.

Once she entered into the political system with her election to a parliamentary seat in 2012, Daw Suu Kyi proved to be almost flawlessly friendly to China’s interests. Her decision on the Letpadaung Copper Mine issue was a solid indication of this. After her National League for Democracy government was elected in a landslide in November 2015, promising (falsely, it turned out) quick advancement to a fuller democratic politics and society, she and the Chinese leadership became something like a mutual admiration society. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi went to Naypyidaw to congratulate her on her 2015 election victory the following year, the first foreign dignitary to do so, and Daw Suu Kyi herself went to Beijing to confer with Chinese president Xi Jinping. Their meeting was warm, amply laced with language about Chinese and Burmese being pauk phaw, or “distant cousins.” Again, when Daw Suu Kyi was being bitterly criticised by western countries over the Rohingya issue, she was given moral support by Xi and other top Chinese officials during a December 2017 visit to Beijing. The Chinese also assisted greatly in her ultimately fruitless efforts to achieve reconciliation with the ethnic armed organisations (Thant Myint-U, 2020: 228, 247).

In one of her “Letters from Burma” published in the Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun in April 1996, Daw Suu Kyi commented:

To observe businessmen coming to Burma with the intention of enriching themselves is somewhat like watching passers-by in an orchard roughly stripping off blossoms for their fragile beauty, blind to the ugliness of despoiled branches, oblivious of the fact that by their action they are imperiling future fruitfulness and committing an injustice against the rightful owners of the trees. Among these despoilers are big Japanese companies. (Aung San Suu Kyi, 1996: 3).

Daw Suu Kyi, who had spent a year as a researcher at Japan’s Kyoto University, was doubtlessly thinking of the Japanese springtime custom of viewing cherry blossoms when she wrote this. In relation to China, however, by 2019 Burma’s democracy icon was walking firmly on pragmatism’s low road.

Burma and the One Belt, One Road Initiative

China’s President Xi Jinping announced his One Belt/One Road Initiative, BRI (Chinese: 一帯一路 ) in 2013, an ambitious blueprint to use Chinese and international capital to construct economic linkages (or “corridors”) extending from China by land and sea to the western part of the Eurasian landmass. Major BRI projects include: the China-Indochina Corridor, the China-Bangladesh-India Corridor, the China-Pakistan Corridor, the China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor, the China-Mongolia-Russia Corridor, the New Eurasia Landbridge, and the China-Myanmar Corridor (also known as the China Myanmar Economic Corridor, or CMEC). While its goal is construction of transportation and communications infrastructure throughout Eurasia and beyond, stimulating the rapid growth of local industries and promoting growth, the scope of its ambition is perhaps best understood as covering an area larger than the 13th century Mongol Empire, which did not include South Asia or most of Southeast Asia. Many of the countries with the most ambitious projects included within the BRI are members of Beijing’s new Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, set up as an alternative to the western and Japanese dominated World Bank (“Selling the Silk Road Spirit,” 2019).

Essential to this vision is China’s hope to gain easy and stable access to the Indian Ocean through Burma and Pakistan (although tensions between China and India and Vietnam may prevent implementation of corridors in the Subcontinent and Indochina). According to the Transnational Institute (TNI): “(t)he sheer size of the initiative – 136 countries have received US$90 billion in Chinese foreign direct investment and exchanged US$6.0 trillion in trade with China – can make the BRI appear monolithic and inevitable” (Ibid.). In fact, it is more of a vision than a plan, and while it is legitimized by the central government in Beijing, it contains a large number of initiatives promoted by Chinese state-owned companies, provincial governments and private enterprise. In other words, in the TNI’s words: the BRI is “a broad framework of activities, rather than a predetermined plan” (Ibid.). While politicians in Washington D.C. view the BRI as Beijing’s sinister plot to take over the world, or seduce developing countries into “debt traps,” the scheme is not centrally directed and, like other foreign investment schemes, extremely vulnerable to unstable conditions on the ground.9

Countries which signed cooperation documents related to the Belt and Road Initiative (CC BY-SA 4.0)

For a relatively poor country such as Burma, however, the BRI is a huge deal. The China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) was initiated in 2017 by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by the two governments. Given that the major obstacle to Chinese investment in the country has been the continued civil war between the central government and ethnic armed organisations, the launching of the CMEC was accompanied by a renewed effort to carry out “peace” negotiations by Aung San Suu Kyi’s government. While successful projects such as the Oil and Gas Pipeline already contributed to solidifying economic and infrastructure ties between the two countries, four projects were designated as priorities for furthering the BRI vision:

  1. The North-South Energy Transmission Project, the integration of the electrical grids of China and Burma, which would impact ethnic minority regions such as Shan and Kachin States and could leave Burma dependent on China for electricity;
  2. A China-Burma High Speed Railway, connecting Yunnan Province with Burma, its Indian Ocean terminus being the Rakhine State port of Kyaukphyu;
  3. A “Sino-Myanmar Land and Water Transportation Bridge which would link Yunnan with the Indian Ocean in large measure through exploitation of the Irrawaddy River; and,
  4. Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and Industrial Zones, including the Kyaukphyu SEZ in Rakhine State (“Selling the Silk Road Spirit, 2019”).

Another important Chinese project is the “New Yangon City Project,” a ninety square kilometer new city to be constructed to the west of Rangoon (Oo, 2021). Although plans to construct an ultramodern “new city” near the old commercial capital were proposed soon after the 1988 SLORC takeover, none of these reached fruition, although the building of Naypyidaw as the new national capital could be considered an alternate scheme to insulate Burma’s elites and power-centre from popular unrest (Seekins, 2019: 81-106).

A Kachin political activist, Lahpai Seng Raw, has described the BRI from the perspective of vulnerable ethnic minorities:

There is no doubt that a storm is brewing. CMEC is looming over us like a black, threatening mass of cloud, further aggravating the raging political storm of unresolved political grievances and environmental degradation that envelop us. This is the harsh reality that we Kachins face with the advent of CMEC. And, like it or not, we must face it and its resultant effects. As things stand now, it would seem that we are caught between the devil and the deep sea, with not many good options in sight. The question facing us now is whether it would be more pragmatic to cast our lot with China and its Belt Road Initiative rather than the transformation process under Myanmar rule, and the non-negotiable, centralized “Peace Process”?

. . . As it is, we do not have a choice of opting for the Devil or the Deep Blue Sea, but will have to face both of them head on (Lahpai Seng Raw, 2019).

Conclusions: the 2021 Coup d’Etat and Beijing’s Geopolitical Nightmare

Many people who looked at Burma’s internal politics from an overly rational viewpoint were shocked by the February 1 coup d’état (“the generals already have it pretty good”). Perhaps they should have paid more attention to a basic legitimizing principle in the Tatmadaw’s political worldview, the difference between “national politics” and “party politics”: Under party politics, civilian politicians pursue diverse particular interests, while national politics is the supreme responsibility of the Tatmadaw as the protector and enforcer of national unity and identity, values which are viewed as constantly under assault from foreign countries (Seekins, 2017: 384, 385). This doctrine was formulated in the early 1990s by pro-SLORC spokesmen, but continues to be taken very seriously by the army’s top brass in the third decade of the twenty-first century. So seriously, in fact, that under their command the army and police have killed hundreds of peaceful and mostly unarmed protesters nationwide, with the violence continuing to escalate through March and April.

In a March 2021 interview with the National Committee on US-China Relations in Washington, broadcast on YouTube, analyst Sun Yun claimed that following the coup d’état, China sought to be “neutral,” observing the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of another country which is one of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, proclaimed both by China and Burma. She said that the principle “ties China’s hands,” although Beijing’s leaders really do not approve of the military takeover. She also says that China values Burma more for its strategic location than its natural resources, given the BRI’s ambition to establish a land link between the interior of China and the Indian Ocean (Sun Yun, 2021).

In fact, as the history related above shows, the People’s Republic of China has tended to observe this principle of non-interference in the breach when it had sufficiently compelling interests to do so: for example, it gave sanctuary to Burmese communist exiles during the 1950s and 1960s, armed and sent the People’s Army over the border in January 1968 and choose to support the SLORC/SPDC junta in 1988-2011 both militarily and economically, while largely keeping its distance from Aung San Suu Kyi and the pro-democratic opposition until after 2011. At the same time, China gave aid to the United Wa State Army in eastern Shan State, allowing it to establish an autonomous mini-state with a first-class armed force, sold weapons to several other ethnic armed organisations (such as the Arakan Army) and has exploited Burma’s natural resources, like jade, forests and natural gas, with little concern for the impacts, such as land grabbing, abuse of ethnic minorities and severe environmental pollution.

Seeing Burma’s political stability as its top priority in bilateral relations, Beijing found a reliable partner in carrying out its BRI agenda in Aung San Suu Kyi. Indeed, two weeks before the coup Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with her in Naypyidaw to sign agreements related to the China Myanmar Economic Corridor. According to a Thai diplomat, the closeness of Daw Suu Kyi to Beijing seems to have, in the words of one correspondent, “hit a nerve with the military’s high command” He went on to say that “the military felt threatened by this” (Macan-Markar, 2021).

The possibility that Burma will slip into civil war is highly likely. On April 13, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, warned that the country could become another Syria, a battleground in which society collapses and refugees flee to other countries in huge numbers (“Myanmar heading toward ‘full blown conflict,’” 2021). With the fatalities increasing at the hands of the Tatmadaw and police and the determination of ordinary Burmese people to regain at any cost the admittedly imperfect democracy that was stolen from them, there is little likelihood of compromise on either side. Although China, which first described the coup as a “cabinet reshuffle,” wants the crisis to simply go away, it won’t (Lintner, 2021). It will get worse.

Already, Burmese people have expressed anti-Chinese sentiments, seeing Beijing as the enabler of the military regime and its violence. Thousands of people in the streets of Rangoon, Mandalay and other cities have held up signs condemning China for condoning the coup and gathering at the Chinese embassy to protest (“China get out of Myanmar” say pro-democracy supporters,” 2021). On March 14, fires were started in Chinese-owned factories in Hlaing Thayar, a township of Rangoon. Although there is suspicion that the fires might have been started by pro-regime agents provocateurs rather than protesters, Beijing predictably urged the regime to better protect its projects (Oo, 2021; “China again seeks Myanmar regime’s assurances on oil, gas pipeline security,” 2021).

With the anti-Chinese riots of June 1967 as a precedent, it would be tragic if Chinese residents of Burma, many of whose families have lived in the country since the colonial era, were targeted for attack. Several Burmese-Chinese people have been killed during the street protests, including a 19 year-old woman, Kyal Shin (nicknamed “Angel”), who was shot dead in Mandalay on March 3rd. In Rangoon, the Chinese community has stated publicly its support for the protests and denials that its members are loyal to the People’s Republic (Lintner, 2021).

The future for Burma looks exceedingly grim, both because foreign countries including China seem unable or unwilling to intervene positively to help settle the crisis, and because as the Tatmadaw escalates its violence, the ordinary people increase their resistance. Should the violence continue, anti-regime citizens, possibly in alliance with ethnic armed organisations, are likely to turn to terrorist measures as a means of crippling the regime and its Chinese backers. Led by Aung San Suu Kyi, protests against the SLORC/SPDC during 1988-2010 were largely non-violent, but this could change, and the urge to “make China bleed” by targeting its citizens and projects, like the hugely vulnerable oil and gas pipelines, could be irresistible.

In such an eventuality, should China choose to downgrade its economic engagement or pull out of Burma entirely, it might turn to the China-Pakistan Corridor as a feasible alternative for gaining access to the Indian Ocean (“Selling the Silk Road Spirit,” 2019). Sun Yun has commented that as of 2019, the BRI connection with Pakistan had made considerable progress compared to the CMEC: President Xi has already visited the country and project commitments of more than US$46.0 billion have already been signed (Ibid.).

In looking back on their two millennia of resistance against an expanding China, Vietnamese historians have often said that China has played a dual, ambiguous role in their country’s development: “both our oppressor, and our teacher.” In Burma, which engaged fully with China much more recently, it seems that despite deep suspicions of China held by some of the Tatmadaw’s top leaders, the Burmese army has been used by Burma’s northern neighbour to “pacify” the country in a vain search for stability. Given this situation, the famous comment of the Roman historian Tacitus on the Roman occupation of Britain seems appropriate: “they have made a desert, and call it peace.”

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Donald M. Seekins is Emeritus Professor of Southeast Asian Studies in the College of International Studies of Meio University in Okinawa, Japan.

Sources

Aung San Suu Kyi. 1996. “Letter from Burma.” Mainichi Daily News, April 22, p. 3.

Bi Shihong. N.d. “The Economic Relations of Myanmar-China.” Chiba, Japan: Institute for Developing Economies.

“China again seeks Myanmar regime’s Assurances on Oil, Gas Pipelines.” 2021. The Irrawaddy, April 2 at www.irrawaddy.com accessed on 04.10.2021.

“’China Get Out of Myanmar’ Say Pro-Democracy Supporters.” 2021. The Irrawaddy, April 2 at www.irrawaddy.com accessed 04.10.2021.

“Debunking the Myth of Debt-Trap Diplomacy.” 2020. Research Paper, August 19. London: Chatham House at www.chathamhouse.org accessed on 04.06.2021.

Lahpai Seng Raw. 2019. “China’s Belt & Road Initiative: a Cautionary Tale for the Kachins.” January 10. Amsterdam: Transnational Institute.

Lintner, Bertil. 2021. “China’s Myanmar Dilemma grows deep and wide.” Asia Times, March 25, at www.asiatimes.com accessed on 04.11.2021.

Lintner, Bertil. 1999. Burma in Revolt: Opium and Insurgency since 1948. Chiang Mai: Silkworm.

Lintner, Bertil. 1993. “Rocks and a Hard Place.” Far Eastern Economic Review, September 9, p. 26.

Macan-Markar, Marwaan. 2021. “China treads lightly on Myanmar coup with billions at stake.” Nikkei Asia, March 5 accessed on 03-11-2021.

Mizuno Atsuko. 2016. “Economic Relations between Myanmar and China.” Pp. 195-224 in Konosuke Okada, ed. The Myanmar Economy: Past, Present and Prospects. Tokyo: Springer Japan.

Mya Maung. 1992. Totalitarianism in Burma: Prospects for Economic Development. New York: Paragon House.

“Myanmar heading towards a ‘full-blown conflict, UN rights chief warns.” 2021. UN News, April 13, at www.news.un.org accessed 04.14.2021.

Oo, Dominic. 2021. “China’s Interests going up in Flames in Myanmar.” Asia Times, March 16, at www.asiatimes.com accessed on 04.12.2021.

Seekins, Donald M. 2019. “’Centering the City’: the Upattasanti Pagoda as Symbolic Space in Myanmar’s new capital of Naypyidaw.” Pp. 81-106 in Henco Bekkering, et al. eds. Ideas of the City in Asian Settings. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.

Seekins, Donald M. 2017. Historical Dictionary of Burma (Myanmar). 2nd edition. Lanham MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

Seekins, Donald M. 2011. State and Society in Modern Rangoon. London: Routledge.

Seekins, Donald M. 2007. Burma and Japan since 1940: from ‘Co-Prosperity’ to ‘Quiet Dialogue.’ Copenhagen: Nordic Institute of Asian Studies Press.

Seekins, Donald M. “Burma-China Relations: playing with Fire.” Asian Survey, vol. 37:6, June, pp. 525-539.

“Selling the Silk Road Spirit: China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Myanmar.” 2019. Myanmar Policy Briefing, No. 22, November. Amsterdam: Transnational Institute.

Sun Yun. 2021. “The Myanmar Coup, China and the US.” Interview with the National Committee on US-China Relations on YouTube, March 8, accessed 03.09.2021.

Sun Yun. 2012. “China in the Changing Myanmar.” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, vol. 31:4, pp. 51-77.

Thant Myint-U. 2020. The Hidden History of Burma: Race, Capitalism and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21stCentury. New York: W.W. Norton.

Thaw Kaung, U. 2004. “Preliminary Survey of Penang-Myanmar Relations from the mid-19th to the mid-20th centuries.” Pp. 163-186 in Selected Writings of U Thaw Kaung. Rangoon: Myanmar Historical Commission.

Notes

1 Some Chinese observers see a historical precedent to the One Road/One Belt Initiative in the Silk Road which connected the Han and Tang Empires of China with countries in the West and, more significantly, the voyages led by Admiral Zheng Ho to the South China Sea and Indian Ocean during the early Ming Dynasty, although outside of island Southeast Asia, the impact of these expeditions was short-lived

2 To this day, Burmese refer to the Chinese as Taiyoke, a term that is derived from the Chinese word for “Turk.” This may have referred to Muslim Turkish or Central Asian soldiers in Kublai Khan’s army (Seekins, 2017: 147).

3 It was Siam (now known as Thailand) which benefited the most from the Qing campaigns. Hsinbyushin ordered Burmese troops to retreat from Siam to fight the Manchus, and a new Siamese royal dynasty, the Chakri, was established in 1782 with its capital at Bangkok. Thereafter, Siam successfully countered Burmese incursions under Hsinbyushin’s successor, Bodawpaya (r. 1782-1819). 

4 Supplies were offloaded at Rangoon and carried by rail to Lashio, a town in the Shan States. From there, they were taken by truck over the Burma-China border to Kunming, capital of Yunnan.

5 Being a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has veto power over its deliberations. Both China and Russia vetoed any attempt of the UNSC to take a strong stand on the February 1, 2021 coup d’état.

6 No one is quite sure how many Chinese entered and sojourned in Burma during the SLORC/SPDC period. Census figures are unhelpful on this issue, and one English language publication based in Hong Kong, Asiaweek, suggested that hundreds of thousands of Han Chinese may have entered Burma after flooding in southern China. Mandalay itself is estimated to be 30 percent Chinese. The inflow has reportedly deeply changed the demographic profile of Upper Burma (Seekins, 2017: 150, 151).

7 While in Rangoon in 2005, I visited a couple of these developments. At one, I asked a Burmese saleswoman who bought these luxury mansions. She replied: “Oh, I don’t really know, but they’re Chinese.” 

8 Replicas were made of the original tooth relic, and placed in “Tooth Relic Pagodas” in Rangoon and Mandalay as well as the Uppattasanti Pagoda in Naypyidaw (Ibid.).

9 “Debt traps” refers to the alleged tactic of China’s luring poor countries into assuming heavy loan burdens and then, when they cannot service them, seizing the assets. Thus, China can extend its power and influence far beyond its borders. See “Debunking the myth of ‘Debt-trap Diplomacy’ (2020).

Featured image: China’s ‘Burma Road’ project, part of the broader Belt-and-Road infrastructural initiative.  (Source: APJJF)

India on the Brink of Sanitary Catastrophe

May 24th, 2021 by Lucas Leiroz

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The pandemic is hitting India hard. In recent weeks, the world has turned its attention to this Asian country, which, despite having passed with little damage by the first wave of COVID-19, began to suffer strongly between the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, with the second wave being marked by the appearance of a new variant of the virus, much more lethal than the first one. The country records 26 million cases of contamination, with 300 thousand deaths and an average of daily deaths of almost 4 thousand people.

In addition to the coronavirus, India is suffering from the outbreak of a lethal fungus, popularly known as “black fungus”, which causes the mucormycosis disease. This disease already existed in India before the pandemic, but was considered rare, having reached an extraordinary increase with the new variant of COVID-19. Being caused by exposure to fungi of the genus Mucor, commonly found in soil, in the air and even in the nose and human mucus, the disease spreads through the respiratory tract and corrodes facial structures. Associated with coronavirus, mucormycosis has much more serious effects and considerably increases chances of death. Sometimes, doctors need to surgically remove the eye to prevent the infection from reaching the brain of a patient. The inadequate sanitary conditions in the treatment centers allow the exposure to the fungus, which has already resulted in 9 thousand cases of infection.

The Indian scenario is catastrophic. Lack of oxygen in hospitals, crowded crematoriums, lack of ambulances and people dying on the streets have become commonplace in Indian daily life. In addition to the terrifying official figures, there is still a strong concern about underreporting, due to the difficulty of the Indian state in controlling some of the country’s most isolated regions. The economic and social consequences make the situation even worse. About 230 million Indians have fallen into poverty due to the coronavirus pandemic, with young people and women being the most affected. The confinement implemented for months in India has left around 100 million people unemployed, according to a report by Azim Premji University published in early May. About 47% of those affected by unemployment are women, which also hinders the slow process of social inclusion of women and gender equality in the country.

Interestingly, there is a contradictory point in the Indian crisis: the country is the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines – and even so, it continues to move towards the health catastrophe. There are two main vaccine producers on Indian soil, the Serum Institute, in the city of Pune, which is producing the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine; and Bharat Biotech, in Hyderabad, which is producing its own vaccine. The Indian government authorized companies to start producing doses last year and the country quickly became the largest global producer. Large-scale production was part of a strategy by the Indian government to combat the pandemic – it was believed that, with more production, greater the national stock of doses. But most of the vaccines produced on Indian soil were destined for export and with the worsening of the internal crisis, manufacturing decreased considerably due to the lack of resources, making the national stock insufficient to contain the infection cycle.

The shortage of vaccines, however, was only realized after the government initiated a comprehensive mass vaccination plan in early May. Only 41 million people were fully vaccinated, while 104 million received the first dose. In many countries, this number would be significant, but in a nation with 1.4 billion inhabitants, the data are extremely low. In response to the crisis, the government has banned the export of vaccines. The objective is to preserve all the resources available to vaccinate the Indian population, but this will result in a great loss for several countries that depend on Indian vaccines – some of these countries have already paid in advance for millions of doses that will be sent only at the end of 2021, when the Indian government hopes to resume export.

The crisis reveals serious strategic mistakes by the government. The first mistake was to ignore the gravity of the first wave. Due to the low number of cases – compared to the rest of the world – the Indian government has failed to supervise sanitary policies. Agglomerations were part of Indian daily life throughout the year 2020, without any measures being taken to maintain health care. A second mistake was the national vaccine production plan. In fact, the most correct thing to do would be to focus on internal supply and establish as a contractual condition with pharmaceutical companies for production the reservation of a considerable number of doses so that in a few months there would be enough stock to vaccinate the population.

It is also necessary to emphasize how the absence of economic strategy has harmed India, leaving millions of people into poverty and unemployment without any social support. Lacking assistance, people cannot remain isolated in their homes – the tendency is for them to leave more and more, in search of work or other means of obtaining resources. This creates a vicious cycle of simultaneous increase in poverty and infection.

Despite still producing many vaccines, India will have no stock for 1 billion people and no resources to continue large-scale manufacture, which means that New Delhi will begin to import large quantities of doses. The situation is truly worrying in India and the country is unlikely to recover without strong international cooperation – both for sending vaccines and for economic aid.

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Lucas Leiroz is a research fellow in international law at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.

Featured image is from InfoBrics

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While the incompetence of the Indian government is starkly visible in its handling of the second wave of the Covid-19 crisis, its performance has been far worse on the vaccine front.

The government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which seems to believe in the ideology of free-market capitalism, thinks that the market will magically produce the number of vaccines the country needs.

This would explain why it has starved seven public-sector vaccine manufacturing units – according to an April 17 article in Down to Earth – of any support instead of ramping up much-needed vaccine production.

The rights to produce the public-sector vaccine Covaxin, which has been developed by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and National Institute of Virology (NIV), in collaboration with Bharat Biotech, have been given to the private-company partner on an exclusive basis.

The government also believed that the Serum Institute of India, another private-sector company and the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, which has tied up with AstraZeneca to produce Covishield, would make vaccines according to the country’s requirements without any prior orders or capital support.

The government did not even see the necessity to intervene and prevent India’s new Quad ally, the US, from stopping sending India supplies of the raw materials needed by India for manufacturing vaccines.

The sheer negligence by the government is further highlighted by the fact that even though India has about 20 licensed manufacturing facilities for vaccines and 30 biologic manufacturers, all of which could have been harnessed for vaccine manufacturing, only two companies are currently producing vaccines. That too is at a pace completely inadequate for India’s needs.

India has a long history of vaccine development, which can be traced back to the Haffkine Institute for Training, Research and Testing, in Mumbai, in the 1920s. With the Patents Act of 1970 and the reverse engineering of drugs by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) laboratories, the country also broke the monopoly of global multinationals.

It is this change, fought for by the left, that led to India emerging as the largest generic supplier of drugs and vaccines in the world and becoming the global pharmacy of the poor.

The Bill Gates model

Bill Gates recently spoke to Sky News in the UK regarding India’s and South Africa’s proposal to the World Trade Organization on the need to lift intellectual property protection for Covid-19 vaccines and medicines during the pandemic.

Gates claimed that IP is not the issue and that “moving a vaccine … into a factory in India … it’s only because of our grants and our expertise that can happen at all.”

In other words, without the white man coming in to tell India and other middle-income countries how to make vaccines and provide them with his money, these countries would not be able to make vaccines on their own.

This is a rehash of the AIDS debate, when the Western governments and Big Pharma argued that developing generic AIDS drugs would lead to the manufacturing of poor-quality medicines and theft of Western intellectual property.

Bill Gates, who built his fortune on Microsoft’s IP, is the leading defender of patent rights in the world. With his newfound halo as a great philanthropist, he is leading Big Pharma’s charge against the weakening of patents on the global stage.

The role of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, a major funder of the World Health Organization, is also to dilute any move by the WHO to share patents and knowledge during the pandemic.

Indian companies are the largest manufacturers of existing vaccines by volume in the world, according to the WHO’s Global Vaccine Market Report 2020. When it comes to measuring vaccine manufacturing by value, however, the global share held by multinational corporations or Big Pharma is much bigger than that of India.

For example, according to the WHO report, GlaxoSmithKline, with 11% of the global market by volume, generates 40% of the market by value, while the Serum Institute with 28% of the market by volume has only 3% of the market by value. This shows that the patent-protected vaccines with monopoly pricing get much higher prices.

This is the model that Bill Gates and his ilk are selling. Let Big Pharma make the big bucks even if it bankrupts the poorer countries. The Western philanthropic money of Gates and Warren Buffett will “help” the poor Third World to get some vaccines, albeit slowly. As long as they get to call the shots.

RSS and the fear of ‘socialism’

The Modi government’s approach to vaccines is based on the central pillar of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) ideology – which serves as the ideological parent of the ruling BJP – that the task of the state is only to help big capital. Anything else including planning is seen by the right wing as socialism.

In the case of vaccines, it means not to make any attempt to get the companies, both in the public and private sectors, to make necessary preparations for a quick vaccination program: to put in the money and provide the necessary supply chain. Instead, the government believed that India’s private pharmaceutical industry would do all of this on its own.

It forgot that the Indian pharmaceutical industry was the product of public-domain science – the CSIR institutions – the public sector and nationalist companies such as Cipla. They all came out of the national movement and built India’s pharmaceutical industry.

It is institutions like the Haffkine Institute under Sahib Sokhey’s leadership and the Center for Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB) built under the leadership of Dr Pushpa Bhargava that led to India’s vaccine and biologics capacity. It is on this base that India’s vaccine manufacturing capacity rests.

It is not niji (private) companies that built the vaccine capacity in India, as Modi claims. The private-sector companies rode on the back of public-sector science and technology that was built in the country between the 1950s and the 1990s.

The Indian government opened up vaccinations for all adults in the country on May 1. To vaccinate all the eligible population – above 18 years of age – India would require about 2 billion doses of the vaccine in order to give the required two shots per person.

To plan for the production of an order of this size, apart from technology and capital support, India also needs to plan for the complex supply chain that is required for production. This includes raw materials and intermediate supplies such as filters and special bags.

There are at least 37 “critical items” that are currently embargoed by the US from exports under the Defense Production Act of 1950, a relic of the US involvement in the Korean War.

On April 16, Adar Poonawalla, head of the Serum Institute of India, took to Twitter to ask US President Joe Biden “to lift the embargo of raw-material exports out of the US so that vaccine production can ramp up.”

Missed opportunities

If India had put together the production capacity of the Serum Institute, Bharat Biotech, Biological E, and Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical Corporation Ltd, and the five other companies that have signed up to manufacture Sputnik V, developed by the Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology, India could have planned for an annual production capacity of more than 3 billion doses.

If it also included the public-sector units idling under the Modi government, India could have easily boosted its vaccine manufacturing capacity to 4 billion doses and produced the necessary 2 billion doses and more in 2021.

It would then have made it possible for India to completely vaccinate its target population and yet have enough left to meet its export commitments including for the WHO’s Access to Covid-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator program and its vaccines pillar of COVAX.

What is missing is a commission that could plan this exercise and create the political will to carry it forward. Not a vacuous Niti Ayog – the public policy think-tank of the Indian government – and an incompetent administration in New Delhi.

Instead, the Modi government did not even bother to place an order with the Serum Institute until January 11, and that too for a measly 11 million doses. The next order of 120 million Covishield and Covaxin doses was placed only in the third week of March when the daily caseload had approached 40,000, and India was well into its second wave.

The government seemed to bank on its belief in the magic of the capitalist market, which it thought would solve all its problems, without any real effort on New Delhi’s part.

India and South Africa have asked the World Trade Organization to consider waiving the rules relating to intellectual property during the pandemic, and further sought that knowledge, including patents and know-how, should be shared without restrictions. This proposal has been backed by the WHO and has huge support among most countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

The holdouts predictably are the rich countries that want to protect the global vaccine market for their Big Pharma companies.

Under pressure from the global community and the bad optics of the US hoarding vaccines, the Biden administration has finally decided to accept South Africa’s and India’s initiative of a temporary patent waiver, after stonewalling it in the WTO until now. But this waiver is restricted to vaccine patents only and does not extend to other patents or associated intellectual property as South Africa and India’s proposal had suggested.

This is still a victory for the global public health community, though only a first step.

While India is spearheading the need to share know-how with all companies capable of manufacturing vaccines, it still has explaining to do as to why it has given an exclusive license to Bharat Biotech to manufacture a vaccine developed with public money and in public institutions such as ICMR and NIV. Why is it not being shared under a non-exclusive license with both Indian companies and firms outside India?

Instead, ICMR is receiving royalties from sharing its know-how exclusively with Bharat Biotech. Under public pressure, ICMR is now sharing its know-how with the Maharashtra state government’s public-sector Haffkine Bio-Pharmaceutical Corp, while giving Bharat Biotech six months’ lead time with financial support money from the central government.

Modi had dreamed that India would be the vaccine arm of the Quad. He forgot that in order to compete with China, India needs a vaccine production base that not only takes care of its own needs but also fulfills all its external commitments.

China can do this because it has developed at least three vaccines already – from Sinopharm, Sinovac and CanSino – that have been licensed to others. Their production is now being ramped up, and China is the largest supplier of vaccines to countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. And it has also managed to control the spread of the virus that causes Covid-19, unlike India.

This is where the Modi government has failed. and failed badly. An incompetent, vainglorious leadership, combined with the RSS belief in magical capitalism, has led to the disaster that we are now facing.

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Prabir Purkayastha is the founding editor of Newsclick.in, a digital media platform. He is an activist for science and the free software movement.

Featured image: A health worker displays a vial of an Indian-made Covid-19 vaccine, Covishield, at a hospital in Srinagar, Kashmir, on January 16, 2021. Photo: Muzamil Mattoo / NurPhoto

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In October and November of 2020, a relentless barrage of nine typhoons and tropical storms slammed into Vietnam, setting off record floods and countless landslides. Nearly 200 people died, and property damage was estimated at $1.5 billion.

Then-Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc responded on Nov. 10 by calling for 1 billion trees to be planted nationwide by 2025 in hopes that increased forest cover would help prevent future landslides and reduce flooding.

The billion-tree program is now official government policy with a number of aims, including protecting ecosystems, improving scenery, responding to climate change, and aiding economic development. But the government has yet to release specifics on what species will be planted where and by whom, or the cost and source of funding.

And while the initiative was created in the wake of natural disasters that heavily impacted communities in mountainous areas, especially in central Vietnam, it places most of its emphasis elsewhere.

“The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development [MARD] created a draft circular, and if you look at it, 85% of the trees are planned for urban areas and industrial zones, so only 15% for upland areas,” said Phuc Xuan To, a program analyst at the international NGO Forest Trends. “Of course urban and industrial zones are important, but not as important for preventing and mitigating the impacts of floods and landslides caused by tropical storms.”

MARD did not respond to requests for comment.

The government directive outlining the program, which is only available in Vietnamese, notes that planting will be concentrated in urban areas, industrial zones, export-processing zones and traffic corridors, but does not indicate why. It begins by noting the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on lives and property, and calls “drastic forest development” both “an urgent task and a long-term strategic task.”

To be sure, a lack of green space is a chronic problem in Vietnam’s urban areas. For example, the government of Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s commercial center, says the city has just 0.55 square meters (6 square feet) of public park per resident, compared to 30 m2 (326 ft2) per person in Singapore. City officials have already begun planting trees under the program after years of urban tree loss due to infrastructure development.

Nonetheless, Phuc said he was surprised by this emphasis on cities.

“When Vietnamese people hear about 1 billion trees, we think about forests,” he said. That many trees could create up to 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres) of new forest, but MARD’s plan calls for planting just 80,000 hectares (198,000 acres), with the rest of the trees going into urbanized areas, he added.

On April 4, officials and volunteers planted 23 trees in an unfinished park along the Saigon River in Ho Chi Minh City, part of Vietnam’s plan to plant 1 billion trees by 2025. Most of the trees are slated for planting in urban areas. Image by Michael Tatarski.

Some of the new trees have started to fade in Ho Chi Minh City’s dry-season heat. Image by Michael Tatarski.

Vietnam’s reforestation history

Tree planting directed by the central government can be traced back to the late former president Ho Chi Minh, who began a Lunar New Year tradition of planting trees in 1959, when Vietnam was divided into two countries.

According to a yet-to-be-published research paper from 2020 about large-scale reforestation programs in Vietnam, 1992 saw the implementation of the 327 Project, a five-year, $68 million nationwide reforestation program. However, this was criticized for placing wood production over food security and focusing on exotic tree species such as eucalyptus and acacia.

In 1998, the government introduced the national 5 Million Hectare Reforestation Program (5MHRP), which cost more than $1.5 billion through 2010, dramatically increasing the scale of the 327 Project. 5MHRP did not meet its area-based reforestation goals, and in some provinces encouraged the replacement of natural shrubland that local communities lived off with monoculture plantations, generally acacia, managed and periodically clear-cut by smallholders.

Acacia plantations dominate the landscape of Huong Tra district in central Vietnam’s Thua Thien-Hue province. Image by Michael Tatarski.

Nguyen Quang Hoa tending to seedlings at his home outside Hue, in Thua Thien-Hue province. Most plantations in the area grow a monocrop of acacia but Hoa plants long-lived native trees among the acacia on his plantation. Image by Michael Tatarski.

Smallholders are a major aspect of forestry in Vietnam, as they control at least half of the country’s planted forest area, and in rural areas such as the mountains outside Hue, plantations are the main source of income for residents. Plantation forests generally offer fewer environmental benefits than native forest ecosystems; for example, they shelter less wildlife, offer less protection from storms, and store less carbon.

Despite these shortcomings, initiatives such as the 327 Project and 5MHRP did have an impact on raw forest figures. Vietnam’s forest cover grew from 28% of the country, or 9.4 million hectares (23 million acres), in 1990 to 42%, or 14.6 million hectares (36 million acres), in 2020, according to figures in the 2020 paper. Both natural forests and plantations grew during this time, but plantations grew more rapidly, according to Open Development Mekong. As of 2016, natural forests comprised about 71% of total tree cover; of this, only 0.25% is primary forest.

“On one hand, forest cover has expanded, so if that’s your metric, then reforestation has been somewhat successful,“ said Pamela McElwee, an associate professor of human ecology at Rutgers University in New Jersey, U.S., who co-authored the 2020 paper. “But it doesn’t say anything about the quality of forests and what their long-term status will be.”

McElwee said there are major regional differences in how reforestation has been pursued, given Vietnam’s diverse geography. While swaths of central Vietnam are now carpeted with non-native acacia plantations for harvesting, parts of the Mekong Delta have successfully expanded or, at the very least, maintained indigenous mangrove forest cover that is intended to stay in place and protect coastal communities.

Newly planted mangrove trees in Tra Vinh province, part of local tree-planting efforts in the Mekong Delta unrelated to Vietnam’s 1-billion-tree program. Mangroves help protect local communities from the rising sea levels and increasing storms that are resulting from climate change. Image by Michael Tatarski.

The acacia problem

On the descent into the city of Hue in central Vietnam, the region appears an endless expanse of forested hills and mountains. At ground level, however, it becomes apparent that this is a ruse: mile after mile of monocrop plantations, mostly growing acacia, cover the lowlands and foothills leading up toward the rugged border with Laos.

Acacia is not native to Vietnam, yet is has come to dominate this landscape, where thousands of smallholders grow it on harvest cycles of up to seven years for paper and timber production.

The forestry sector is of major economic significance, with the Vietnam Administration of Forestry aiming to hit $14 billion in exports this year.

“So acacia puts money in people’s pockets, but it has driven land stratification, and not everyone is benefitting from it,” McElwee said. “There are different models elsewhere [in Vietnam], for example some of the mangrove models rely on more diverse ecologies, but that does not happen with acacia: it is one species, and nothing else is there, and that’s not what people think of as a forest.”

Additionally, tall, thin acacia trees are easily knocked down in high winds, pulling up soil and increasing the risk of landslides.

Trucks carrying timber are a common sight on the roads of Thua Thien-Hue province. Image by Michael Tatarski.

A former acacia plantation being prepared for the construction of an expressway near the city of Hue in Thua Thien-Hue province. Infrastructure development remains a major driver of tree loss in Vietnam. Image by Michael Tatarski.

Huong Tra district, just outside of Hue in Thua Thien-Hue province, was lashed by last year’s storms, and nearby a series of landslides buried 17 workers at a hydropower dam, setting off a dramatic rescue operation involving the Vietnamese military. Only six bodies were ever recovered.

Endless acacia plantations, the types encouraged and subsidized by previous reforestation programs, spread out from the narrow, pockmarked road that follows a valley. The harvest rotations of small plots create a patchwork of 12-meter-tall (40-foot) trees next to freshly cleared land.

A tree farmer who requested anonymity in order to speak freely about his economic situation sat at a drink stall, taking a break from maintaining his land.

“I moved here in 2002 to start growing acacia,” he said in Vietnamese. “If I sell them for material to make paper, they grow for four or five years, but to get timber it should be over seven years. Economically, it doesn’t make that much money, and the soil is very hard to take care of.”

His simple concrete house down the road testifies to his meager income. According to the farmer, if he grows 1 hectare (2.5 acres) of acacia for five years, he can sell it for $3,470 in profit, or just $58 per month — and that is considered a good selling price. He has about 3 hectares (7.4 acres) of acacia and grows jackfruit, mango and banana trees around his home for supplemental income, as the soil on the valley floor is richer than on the hillsides.

“The acacia trees don’t hold water or soil, so when it rains, any good soil comes downhill,” he said. “On the highest parts of the hills, it can take 10 years for a tree to reach a height that it would normally reach in seven years.”

When asked if he or his neighbors have planted anything other than acacia, he said that is all they know: “But if I got to know about projects using other species, I’d love to learn about them.”

Cleared plantation plots alternate with growing acacia next to a reservoir in Huong Tra district. Areas such as this are counted as forest cover although compared to natural forest they provide far fewer environmental benefits such as carbon storage, wildlife habitat, and protection from erosion. Image by Michael Tatarski.

Mixed plantations

In fact, such reforestation efforts are underway across Vietnam thanks to conservation NGOs such as WWF-Vietnam and PanNature, as well as the initiative of individual farmers.

“In Vietnam, we focus too much on tree plantation initiatives where we just try to increase forest cover — wherever there are trees, it can count as forest — and we want to focus more on the quality and sustainability of those activities,” said Nguyen Hai Van, PanNature’s deputy director. “In previous programs we planted fast-growing trees like acacia, but for a long time nobody has talked about the sustainability of it, and there are so many questions on that issue.”

PanNature works with local communities, especially ethnic minority groups, in the Central Highlands and the mountainous northwest to revive traditional forest management methods.

“We try to restore forests and be very careful with which type of species we provide to the local people to plant,” Van said. “We consider the soil quality, the microclimate, whether it fits with the native ecosystem, what value and benefit people can get if they plant that tree.”

Nguyen Duc To Luu, PanNature’s resource governance program manager, added that they don’t strictly focus on trees either; instead, they mix in shrubs, medicinal plants and fruit plants. This gives people who rely on the forest for their livelihood a more diverse income source, while also avoiding the pitfalls of monocrop plantations.

“We don’t go for big plantations of industrial species, instead we want to use small-scale projects conducted by local people allocated with multipurpose species and mixed plantations, not just timber,” Luu said. “We provide not only the seedlings; we take people from the beginning of seed production to plantation design to site selection and protection and care. We try to create a long-term relationship with communities protecting the forest.”

PanNature also recently discovered a population of endangered northern white-cheeked gibbons (Nomascus leucogenys) near one of their project sites in Son La, a province in the remote northwest. They plan to plant fruit trees that the primates can feed on while extending their habitat through new mixed forests.

Nguyen Quang Hoa, left, and Phan Huu Tan at the latter’s farm. The acacia behind them was planted in 2014 and trimmed in 2018. Image by Michael Tatarski.

In Thua Thien-Hue, meanwhile, WWF-Vietnam is working with farmers like Nguyen Quang Hoa on an alternative method of reforestation that could provide a model for the billion-tree program.

“We still replant harvested acacia, but at the same time we also put in native species that last longer,” Hoa said at his house next to a cemetery in the lowlands outside Hue. “So when farmers want to take the acacia, they will just cut those and leave the others.”

This project is just a year old, but Hoa took us to a large farm owned by Phan Huu Tan in Huong Thuy district. Spread over 130 hectares (321 acres), Tan’s property is much larger than that of the average smallholder, and outside of acacia he also grows oranges, peppers, bananas and passionfruit.

“I cut down a lot of trees earlier in my life in both Vietnam and Laos, and now I want to help grow them back,” Tan said.

With support from WWF-Vietnam, he has carved out 7 hectares (17.3 acres) for mixed planting, a move away from solely acacia. Here, 500 indigenous tree seedlings have been planted among 3,000 acacias on each hectare.

The indigenous species include Indian mahogany (Chukrasia tabularis) and resin tree (Dipterocarpus alatus), and the year-old saplings are utterly dwarfed by the mature acacia surrounding them.

“We will let them grow into my grandchildren’s generation,” Tan said. “But I don’t want to plant them too deep into the property, as I can’t monitor everything and I worry people will cut them down.”

He said he hopes to eventually expand the mixed-species area to 50 hectares (124 acres), a goal that would add thousands of native, long-living trees to his property. However, Hoa noted that for many, the economics of acacia will outweigh the environmental benefits of more diverse, healthier forests.

“People who have a lot of land will probably volunteer some of it for projects like this, but if they don’t have much land, they won’t, because they know that if they grow native trees, it will be their grandchildren who inherit them,” he said. “Planting acacia is something they know works, and they don’t want to take the risk.”

Acacia at various stages of growth on Phan Huu Tan’s farm. Image by Michael Tatarski.

The future of 1 billion trees

While any moves away from total reliance on acacia in central Vietnam remain relatively small-scale, it is a trend that forestry experts like Van, Phuc and McElwee want to see.

“If we’re going to talk about long-term adaptation, I’d want to see provincial departments of forestry starting to talk about the fact that acacia is not an appropriate species in that context,” McElwee said. “It is not a durable, deep-rooted species, but you cannot rely on smallholders moving away from it themselves. They just cannot afford it, so if you want to make money off of the sort of natural forest that’s more diverse, you need longer-term subsidies. You’ve got to have money for households as they’re waiting for longer-term timber rotations.”

While it remains to be seen what kind of forest the billion-tree program will install in upland regions, Phuc, of Forest Trends, said that, ultimately, finding available land to plant new trees on may be the program’s biggest challenge there.

“There is quite a lot of land that could be used, but it is managed by local households, and you cannot tell them to plant trees how you want,” he said. “On paper there is about one million hectares [2.5 million acres] managed by local authorities, but in reality that has already been used by villagers for cultivation. It’s extremely difficult to find land, and one reason 5MHRP failed is because there simply wasn’t enough land to plant trees.”

This, Phuc said, is a major reason why the government is focusing on urban areas when it comes to planting over the next five years, despite having created the billion-tree program in the context of devastating landslides and flooding in mountainous areas.

Ultimately, it may be residents of Vietnam’s fast-growing cities who benefit most from this latest national tree-planting campaign. Additional urban tree cover would help combat worsening air pollution and reduce the heat-island effect caused by intense development.

Meanwhile, farmers like Hoa and Tan will remain amid vulnerable landscapes in the firing line of the country’s annual typhoon season, which is expected to become more intense in the future due to climate change.

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Featured image: A year-old indigenous tree on Phan Huu Tan’s farm. Image by Michael Tatarski.

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Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte created controversy this week. He reportedly received the first dose of the China-manufactured Sinopharm “inactivated virus” COVID-19 shot this past Monday night. He broadcast the injection live on Facebook.

The problem is that only the China-manufactured “inactivated virus” Sinovac Coronavac and Oxford-AstraZeneca viral vector shots are authorized for emergency use in the country. Duterte issued a public apology after being criticized for what looks like avoidance of the shots that every other Filipino is forced or chooses to receive. The optics look even worse now that deaths and adverse reactions are piling up for the “authorized” shots.

At least 24 deaths and 24,698 adverse reactions to experimental injections have been reported to government officials since the March rollout, according to ABS-CBN in Quezon City. AstraZeneca is responsible for 14 of the deaths. Sinovac is responsible for 10 deaths. The Philippines Food and Drug Administration (FDA) went into subterfuge mode from there.

FDA director-general Dr. Rolando Enrique Domingo downplayed the deaths and adverse reactions. He said that the reported deaths are “sad,” but none of them are related to the experimental shots. Dr. Domingo blamed comorbidities, including 11 who died after allegedly contracting COVID-19 despite being “vaccinated.” He said only 344 of the adverse reactions were serious.

Dr. Domingo further justified the deaths by saying 143 AstraZeneca deaths in Norway “mostly happened in nursing homes.” He also said that the United States and Hong Kong have found no causal association between the shots and deaths, so he cannot either. Domingo concluded his press conference with one of the most regurgitated talking points of the COVID-19 establishment. “The benefits of the shots outweigh the risks,” he said.

Dangers of Duterte

Americans are in dire shape due to Joe Biden and Fauci acting as head cheerleaders for these experimental shots. But Filipinos are in grave danger under Duterte.

He advocated hard for experimental shots in the Philippines at the WHO last September. Duterte also signed a law in February giving pharmaceutical companies absolute immunity from liability when people are injured from these shots. The law created a $10 million “indemnity fund” to compensate the few people who navigate all the red tape.

Duterte also signed a contract with American drugmaker Novavax in March. The Maryland-based biotech firm is set to send 30 million doses of its experimental “protein subunit” shots to the Philippines. Filipinos will essentially be the guinea pigs for this new shot when it starts shipping this summer. The country is also considering a bill to make the shot mandatory for all citizens.

Obviously the death numbers from these shots are far higher than 26 in the Philippines. These are just the ones we’re hearing about (thanks to a reader named Maiasta). Only the strongest will survive this global war on our right to exist as natural humans. If you do die, go down standing up, not with a needle in your arm. Stay vigilant and protect your friends and loved ones.

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Australia: Say No to War on China

May 18th, 2021 by Sydney Stop the War Coalition

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The Australian government is beating the drums of war against China, pushed along by a new defence minister, Peter Dutton, and the hawks within.

Dutton and Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo have escalated a war of words against China to a dangerous new level.

Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent by the Australian government on a new arms race that includes long-range missiles that can reach China.

This is money that should be better spent on health, welfare education, justice for First Nations people and addressing the climate emergency instead of on handouts to corporate arms dealers.

At the same time, but a little more under the radar, is Australia’s participation in the 50th anniversary of the Five Power Defence Arrangements which includes provocative military exercises with Britain, Malaysia, Singapore and New Zealand this month, culminating with Japan’s military in the South China Sea.

Such war games do nothing to enhance security in the region. It does the opposite and a provocation in this instance could provoke war.

Following nearly 20 years of disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, we say no to a new war on China.

Democracy movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong, the persecuted Uighurs and Tibetans and activists within China need our solidarity, but these are not reasons to normalise the possibility of war.

Racism has underpinned the colonial settler state and First Nations peoples and Asian Australians have been targeted ever since. Solidarity with Asian-Australians is urgently needed as racist attacks are rising alongside the war on China propaganda.

Stop the war mongering

Stop the new arms race and the provocative war exercises

No US troops and US bases in Australia

No to racism

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This statement was initiated by Sydney Stop the War Coalition and was released on May 12,

Sign on here.

Initial signatories:

Stuart Rees, Professor Emeritus University of Sydney

Jenny Leong, Newtown MP, The Greens

David Brophy, senior lecturer University of Sydney

John Tully, Honorary Professor/Educator PhD, College of Arts, Victoria University

Vivienne Porzsolt, Jewish Voices for Peace

Margie Pestorius, The Wage Peace Project Disrupt Land Forces Make West Papua Safe

Marrickville Peace Group

Sylvia Hale, convenor The Greens NSW

Donna Mulhearn, author and former human shield in Iraq

Bashir Sawalha

Rowan Cahill, Honorary Fellow, University of Wollongong

Kingsley Liu

Gerry Binder, Australian Veterans for Peace

Dave Burgess, No War artist on Sydney Opera House

Susan Price and Pip Hinman, Green Left

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Abstract: West Papua, Australia’s near northern neighbour, has for nearly six decades experienced widespread human rights abuses by the Indonesian state and military. In this article we argue that Australia has the responsibility and the expertise to do more to ensure that West Papuans’ human rights are being upheld. First, in a situation as serious as that of West Papua, Australia, as a member of the United Nations, we contend, has a political duty to intervene under the United Nation’s ‘responsibility to protect’ doctrine. Second, we put forward that Australia also has a historic and moral obligation to the territory: West Papuans provided vital assistance to Australian troops in 1944 during World War 2. In the 1960s, however, Canberra betrayed its neighbour’s preparations for self-determination but we argue Australia now has a chance to right this historical wrong by intervening in West Papua’s struggle against Indonesian oppression. Third, we argue that because Australia has set a precedent of intervention when it led the humanitarian intervention in East Timor in 1999-2000, we know that intervention is possible and that the necessary political will can be mustered. Whereas Australia’s involvement in the East Timor crisis led to long term diplomatic tension between Australia and Indonesia, however, we propose that in this case, Australia’s contribution to addressing human rights in West Papua could ultimately strengthen ties between the two countries. 

Introduction

In August 2019, a series of demonstrations of unprecedented size broke out across the large contested territory of West Papua.1 Initially protesting against racial violence and attacks on West Papuan university students in Java, Indonesia (Barker September 2019a), the demonstrations escalated across West Papua in the wake of the global resurgence of the Black Lives Matter movement following the 2020 racist killing of George Floyd in the USA by white police officers (Yaung 2020). The ongoing protests brought attention to similar social injustices suffered by Indigenous Papuans at the hands of Indonesian security forces in West Papua. Over 50 people have now been killed by Indonesian security forces and Jihadi inspired militia since August 2019 (Blades 2020). Australian civil society organisations have repeatedly requested that the Australian government seek to work with the government in Jakarta to put an end to human rights abuses in West Papua (see, for example, Australia West Papua Association 2018a and 2019a). Canberra, however, has routinely and limply responded that it respects Indonesia’s sovereignty over West Papua and has been assured by Indonesian government officials that Jakarta is investigating all allegations of abuses (see, for example, Australia West Papua Association 2018b and 2019b).

This article argues that Australia, West Papua’s closest southern neighbour, has the responsibility and the capacity to do more than it currently does to ensure that West Papuans’ human rights are upheld. Working in partnership with Indonesia’s Komisi Nasional Hak Asasi Manusia (National Commission on Human Rights) may be the best means of progressing a collaborative investigation, a proposal addressed later in this article.

First, the article illustrates the gravity of the conflict in West Papua. As a member of the United Nations (UN), Australia has a political duty to intervene under the UN’s ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) doctrine. Second, Australia also has a historic and moral obligation to West Papuans since they provided critical assistance to Australian forces during World War 2 when in 1944 the troops landed in what is now West Papua’s largest city, Jayapura (Fox 2017). Nonetheless, the Australian Government subsequently betrayed West Papuans’ advanced preparations for self-determination (which, together with the Dutch government, it had previously backed) by supporting the 1962 New York Agreement in which the Netherlands was forced to hand over control of West Papua not to Papuans, but to Indonesia (see Saltford 2003, 14). Intervening now would give Australia a chance to finally make reparations for its past neglect of its moral obligations to the Papuan people.

Third, we argue that Australia has set a precedent for intervention by leading the humanitarian intervention in East Timor in 1999-2000 prior to the arrival of UN peacekeepers. Because of this, we know that the Australian government can summon the political will when under ample pressure from civil society and in a sufficiently dire situation. Whereas Australia’s military involvement in the East Timor crisis led to long term diplomatic tension between Australia and Indonesia, however, we propose that Australia’s contribution to addressing human rights in West Papua could ultimately strengthen ties between the two countries.

 

Australia has a responsibility to protect West Papua 

There is a prima facie case that crimes against humanity have been committed by Indonesian military forces and their militias against West Papuans. Crimes against humanity, under the 1998 Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, include murder, torture, forced transfer of populations, and acts that intentionally cause great suffering knowingly committed against civilians of a population (International Criminal Court 1998). Since invading West Papua in 1962, Indonesia’s occupation of the territory has been marked by acts of brutality that fall clearly within the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court classification of crimes against humanity (see United Nations n.d.). Reports by leading analysts of the West Papua conflict have documented decades of instances of rape, torture, summary executions, disappearances, land seizures, cultural appropriation and denigration, illegal imprisonment, economic exploitation, racism, intimidation and political oppression inflicted on indigenous West Papuans by agents of the Indonesian state (Asian Human Rights Commission 2010, Brundige et al 2004, Budiardjo and Liem 1983, Hernawan 2018, Karma 2014, Ondawame 2010 and Osborne 1985). Several of this article’s authors published a ‘massacre map’ of the atrocities committed in West Papua under Indonesia’s watch from the 1970s to the 2010s (Webb-Gannon, Swift, Westaway and Wright 2020). We outline here some of the more egregious examples captured in the map below (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Map of human rights abuses in West Papua: 1970s-2010s. Source: Authors

A broad-sweeping military operation codenamed Operasi Kikis (Operation ‘Chipping Away’) was executed in the Central Highlands of West Papua in 1977 and 1978. Indonesia never produced an official death toll for the operation but the former governor of Papua, Eliezer Bonay, estimated the number of deaths to be 3,000 (Tebay 2004, 5). Those who lived through the operation counted 4,146 deaths and reported being subject to strafing from AK47 rifles and napalm bombs, anti-personnel cluster bombs, and mortar bombs (Asian Human Rights Commission 2013, 10 and 24, see Figure 1 above). The use of napalm against civilians is banned in the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons and the use of cluster bombs is prohibited under the Convention on Cluster Munitions.

In 1981, the Indonesian military attacked the village of Madi in the Paniai Basin of the Central Highlands, killing up to 13,000 people (Osborne 1985, 88, see Figure 1 above). Based on reports from survivors, it is suspected that napalm and possibly other chemical weapons were used (Osborne 1985, 88). In 1996, following the kidnapping by the West Papuan nationalist army (the TPN-PB) of a group of European zoology students in the highlands village of Gesemlema, a Red Cross helicopter bearing the Red Cross insignia that had been commandeered by Indonesian military personnel shot dead 16 West Papuans at close range (see Figure 1 above). The Papuans had gathered to greet the helicopter which they had assumed was carrying Red Cross representatives who had come to negotiate with the kidnappers and deliver provisions (Davis 1999). In 1998, Indonesian security forces shot into a crowd of West Papuans who were peacefully protesting for independence around the water tower in Biak City on the island of Biak. Victims were taken out to sea on naval vessels and their bodies were disposed of—dismembered corpses washed ashore for several weeks afterward. Hundreds of people were injured, tortured and sexually mutilated (ELSHAM 2013).

Since December 2018, Indonesian security forces have been carrying out a counterinsurgency operation in the highlands regency of Nduga. As of October 2019, this had resulted in at least 189 West Papuan deaths (International Coalition for Papua 2019, 5) and the displacement of 44,821 Indigenous Nduga residents (Wangge and Webb-Gannon 2020, 287). Allegations that white phosphorus projectiles were used on West Papuans have been rejected by Indonesian authorities, but Nduga residents have provided photographs of injuries they claim were caused by phosphorus (see Figure 2 below; Martin 2018). The Indonesian security forces continue to occupy Nduga at the time of writing.

Figure 2: Alleged white phosphorus burn to a Nduga resident’s leg. Photo: Sent to journalist Mark Davis from a confidential source in Nduga Regency.

The crimes against humanity described above comprise only a few of the many atrocities that characterise West Papua’s history under Indonesian rule. In 2005, all UN member countries committed to a doctrine known as the ‘responsibility to protect’, or R2P (United Nations General Assembly, 2005; United Nations General Assembly Security Council, 2017). This principle was formulated following the failure of the international community to prevent the atrocities in Rwanda and the Balkans in the 1990s. It affirms the responsibility of signatories to the doctrine to refrain from committing genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing in their own states and to prevent and punish these atrocities in other states. It also holds the international community (that is, UN member states) responsible for using diplomacy, humanitarian intervention or other measures to protect populations in other states when those states are unable or unwilling to do so themselves. It would hold then that under the R2P doctrine, Australia has a responsibility to prevent the ongoing crimes against humanity that are taking place in West Papua.

 

Helping West Papuans now is an opportunity to pay historical reparations

Not only does Australia have an obligation to West Papuans under the R2P doctrine, the Australian government now has a chance to pay reparations to and make up for its historical betrayal of West Papua. The territory has a complicated colonial past, subject to the capricious agendas of the world powers with vested interests in the region. The old European colonial regimes that had once controlled people and commerce across much of Asia and the Pacific were overthrown and largely (albeit briefly) replaced in the Japanese Empire during World War Two.

When Australian troops joined US and Royal Netherlands East Indies Army troops on April 22, 1944 to fight the Japanese in what is present day Jayapura, they were aided by West Papuans who provided them with accommodation, guidance through the jungles, and hospital care (Fox 2017). Even earlier on, West Papuans contributed to intelligence gathering for the Allied forces, spying on and sabotaging Japanese operations in their territory—although their efforts were not always appreciated by those engaging their assistance. For example, the Australian anthropologist Donald Thomson, sent by the First Australian Army to Dutch New Guinea to carry out a reconnaissance mission, described a crew of indigenous West Papuans making his journey through the rough terrain possible as knowing “nothing of discipline, nothing of hygiene, and less of navigation” (1953, 8). That same expedition’s cook was hardly more complimentary, calling the food offered by locals to supplement the Australian crew’s rations “bloody Boong’s tucker” (Thomson 1953, 8). Other Australians fighting in West Papua during World War Two have fonder memories of the assistance provided by West Papuans. Sergeant James Burrowes remembers the efforts of individual West Papuans—Yali, Mas, Buka, Mariba—in the Allied Intelligence Bureau known as the ‘Coastwatchers’ (2016). Mas and Buka were killed in a Japanese ambush. “‘Without the Coastwatchers’”, Burrowes recalls the Commander of the US 7th Fleet, Admiral Halsey, declaring, “‘the Pacific War would not have been won’” (2016). Similarly, a photograph in the Australian War Memorial archives shows a Lance Corporal of the Field Security Section (FSS) of the Australian Intelligence Corp, Errol Smith, standing companionably aboard a canoe with his West Papuan (Marind Anim) interpreters (see Figure 3 below). The FSS relied on local people for intelligence about Japanese movements (Australian War Memorial 1944).

Figure 3 Eilanden River, Dutch New Guinea, November 1944.
Lance Corporal Errol Smith stands with his Marind Anim interpreters Sarah, Susie and Pedrovitj.
Photo: Australian War Memorial National Gallery

In arguing that Australia is indebted to West Papuans, we are not suggesting that West Papuans were acting out of naïve loyalty to western powers for which Australia should be ongoingly grateful. The reality was and is more complex than that. It was often coercion, not loyalty, which prompted indigenous assistance to Allied forces. Rather than gratitude, Australians owe West Papuans something more akin to reparations. Certainly, on the eastern side of New Guinea, present day Papua New Guinea, it was recognised by local elders that local war labourers were not so much recruited as “taken” by Allied forces to enable their war efforts (Winter 2020, 355). If New Guineans were considered disloyal by the Allies, the consequences were dire. Ten New Guineans were hanged by Australian authorities for treason (Banivanua Mar 2016, 120). Collaboration between locals on both sides of the island and the Allied troops cannot be disentangled from colonial power in the region. Of course, not all instances of local support for Australian troops in New Guinea emerged from coercion or even a sense of obligation to colonial ‘masters’. Many cross-cultural bonds of a personal nature, characterised by respect and deep care, were formed: “relational loyalties were forged on a local level, beyond national loyalties or the binaries of ‘friend and foe’” (Winter 2020 343). Nonetheless, Papuans on both sides of the island suffered and made sacrifices on their own land to help defend Australia from Imperial Japan—whole villages were bombed and/or relocated, crops and livestock were commandeered by Allied troops, labour recruitment led to disrupted gardening and starvation, and education was delayed (Winter 2020, 357). These sacrifices and sufferings during World War Two helped protect Australia from Japan’s southward advance. Australia now has a chance to repay West Papuans in kind by standing up for West Papuans’ human rights in their time of great need.

 

Despite West Papuan assistance in WW2, Australia abandons West Papua

The Japanese military regime was driven out of Melanesia in 1945. After World War Two the United Kingdom, Portugal and the Netherlands realised that their colonial structures were no longer viable (Cribb 2010, 68) and generally not supported by the new global superpower, the USA. In 1949, when Indonesia gained its independence from the Netherlands, it pushed for West Papua to be included as part of its new state, ostensibly relying on the international legal principle of uti possidetis juris in which the territorial boundaries of a decolonised state are formed to match the boundaries of the former colony. However, although the territories of Indonesia and West Papua were both subject to Dutch colonisation, they were administered separately, in effect rendering the principle of uti possidetis juris irrelevant in this case. And the Dutch, hoping to maintain at least some influence in the Pacific once it had relinquished its colonies, did not intend to hand West Papua over to Indonesia. The Dutch administration began to prepare West Papua for independent nation statehood. By 1961, the transition to self-governance was well underway and unifying national symbols including a flag, a national anthem and a name for their state—West Papua – had been established . In response, Indonesia commenced military incursions into West Papua. Fearing that Jakarta would turn to Communist countries for support in its quest to wrest West Papua from the Dutch, the US Kennedy administration brokered what became known as the 1962 New York Agreement between Indonesia and the Netherlands, in which West Papua was initially administered as a United Nations trust territory and then later placed under Indonesian administration. West Papuans were not consulted about this sudden change. The Agreement stipulated that by 1969 an act of self-determination would be held for West Papuans in which they would be given a chance to vote for independence or official integration with Indonesia. It did not, however, dictate how that vote should be carried out.

Up until 1962, Canberra had repeatedly expressed support for Dutch plans for an independent West Papua, concerned that if Indonesia acquired West Papua, it might then seek control of the eastern half of the island, the Territory of Papua and New Guinea, which was under Australian administration (Saltford 2003, 7, 13-14). With Indonesian military incursions into West Papua increasing, Washington refused to back the Dutch militarily in the event of armed clashes with Indonesia over West Papua. As a result, the Dutch relinquished their claim for West Papuans of self-determination and Australia followed suit (Saltford 2003, 13-14). In fact, the latter had so changed its strategic and diplomatic direction that by January 1962, Canberra was “giving active encouragement to the transfer of sovereignty to Indonesia” (Jenkins 1993, 4).

Australia’s about-face on independence was a serious blow to West Papuan hopes, and was felt even more deeply in 1969, immediately before the staging of the act of self-determination set out in the New York Agreement (Rollo 2013). Two West Papuan activists, Clemens Runawery and Wim Zonggenau, having observed the violence and injustices under which preparations for the referendum were taking place, had crossed the border from West Papua into the Australian-administered territory of Papua and New Guinea. They were on their way to the United Nations to deliver testimonies from West Papuan leaders and to warn the world that the plebiscite was going to be a farce. In preparing for the so-called Act of Free Choice (still known locally as the Act of No Choice), Indonesia handpicked a select number of West Papuans who comprised less than one percent of the population whom they coerced, with threats of violence, to choose integration with Indonesia. Australian officials intercepted Runawery and Zonggenau and detained them on Manus Island, refusing to let them deliver their message to the world (Runawery 2009). Although UN staff on the ground knew of the deeply flawed process of the vote (United States Embassy 1969), in the context of the Cold War, and hoping to counteract Indonesia’s communist leanings, the international community acquiesced to West Papua’s annexation to Indonesia.

While several other former colonial states in the Pacific have achieved their independence through peaceful means (for example, Papua New Guinea from Australia in 1975, and Solomon Islands from Britain in 1978), the only state to break free from Indonesia—East Timor—did so through violent and bloody conflict and, ultimately, UN support, in 1999. The nature of decolonisation today would still seem to be largely dependent on the political and economic priorities of western governments, as it was in the 1960s for West Papua. As such, and given the debt owed to West Papua by Australia since World War Two, it should be a political priority for the Australian government to work with Indonesia towards ending atrocities in the territory.

 

Australia has the capacity to make a difference in West Papua

Former Australian Prime Minister John Howard (1996-2007) stated that contributing to the independence of East Timor was one of his key achievements on the international stage (Barker 2019b).2 Where early Australian intervention was critical in East Timor was at the very local level where Australian Federal Police (AFP), working as unarmed civilian police for the United Nations Assistance Mission in East Timor (UNAMET), were placed to assist with the conduct of the independence referendum. These Australian officers disobeyed requests by their superiors to abandon a compound where some 3,000 East Timorese had taken shelter from the murderous rampage of Indonesian-backed militia (Martinkus 2015). Amanda Vanstone, a former Howard-government senator, stated: “AFP officers were amongst the first international contingents into East Timor, having served there since July 1999, when they played a significant role in the successful conduct of the self-determination ballot. … It was in fact, only the unarmed civilian police, mostly Australian and led by an Australian, who refused to give up when others were ready to leave East Timor. They stood between armed militia and the defenceless people of East Timor. Without that group and their willingness, or determination, to hold on in a desperate and dangerous situation, the United Nations may have in fact withdrawn” (Hansard 2000). John Martinkus, an Australian journalist present in the compound, noted that it was through the actions of Australian police and their refusal to abandon the East Timorese that a Srebrenica-style massacre was avoided (Martinkus 2015).

On 20 September 1999 Australia led the International Force East Timor (INTERFET) under the command of Major-General Peter Cosgrove, into East Timor. The force was able, by February 2000, to gain control over land and sea points of entry into East Timor. It gained control of the security situation within East Timor, helped transition East Timor from INTERFET control to that of the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET), and redeployed INTERFET troops to UNTEAT or to home locations (Nautilus Institute n.d.). Australia did not achieve all of this alone, of course. Assistance from New Zealand, the UK, Thailand, the Philippines and the US, among other countries, was critical. Nevertheless, Australia’s logistical expertise, geographical location (considerable military infrastructure and support necessarily came from Darwin) (Gosling 2019), familiarity with Indonesian military capabilities and relationships with Indonesian key military figures (Dickens 2001) were vital to the success of the peace enforcing mission. According to East Timor expert John Blaxland, “In essence, the 1999 East Timor intervention led to a shift in perceptions of how Australia should see itself and what it could and should do to act decisively in its neighbourhood” (2015). What would it take for Australia, perhaps in partnership with other countries, to apply the same policies that it employed so effectively in East Timor to the crisis in West Papua? Australia and New Zealand have both made it clear that they are hesitant to intervene in human rights crises in their region, particularly when Indonesia is involved. In 2006 Australia signed the Lombok Treaty assuring Indonesia it would respect the sovereignty of the Indonesian state. A policy of appeasement for Indonesia appears to be the norm, regardless of the political persuasion of the Australian government of the day, and even the current progressive New Zealand prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has avoided discussion on the topic (Leadbeater 2019).

Media played a critical role in forcing the hand of the US, Australia and their counterparts to intervene in the East Timor conflict, and it appears the Indonesian security forces gained significant operational intelligence from this experience. In recent years a complete media ban, denial of requests from the UN Human Rights Commission to investigate atrocities and human rights violations, and the cutting of internet services over the past year, have played a key role in suppressing information and media that may raise support for the independence movement in West Papua. Social media, however, continues to leak out of West Papua and highlights the nature of torture as well as attacks on protestors. For example, a video circulated on Twitter in February 2020 showed the Indonesian police interrogating a terrified young West Papuan male by wrapping a large snake around him (Davidson 2019). Other civilian videos show protesters being shot at by security forces (The Guardian 2019). Recent media accounts suggest that Jihadis were also recruited to supress the recent West Papuan protests (Kingsbury 2019). And it has been reported that the Indonesian government is developing new diplomatic programs in an attempt to dilute Pacific Island states’ (FSM, Nauru, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands and Fiji) opposition to Indonesian human rights violations and support for West Papuan independence (Wyeth 2018). We know from the East Timor crisis that a major reason why Australia’s reluctant politicians finally agreed to the humanitarian intervention was due to pressure from the Australian public (Fernandes n.d.). Is it possible that social media from West Papua, as well as mainstream media accounts of abuses within Papua (for example, with Jihadi-associated militia) might eventually lead to a similar torrent of public outrage that would pressure the Australian government to act? We have seen from East Timor that Australia can take effective action to bring an end to human rights abuses. What is required is the political will—something civil society can help to build.

Australia also needs to reflect on the best way to become involved. INTERFET cast a long shadow on relations between Indonesia and Australia. Indonesia considered Australia’s role in the intervention to be perfidy, given the major shift it represented in Australia’s “traditional accommodationalist policy towards Jakarta” (Chalk 2001, 233). Because of this perceived betrayal, Indonesia is wary of “the oft-repeated statements of Australia’s recognition of Indonesian sovereignty in Papua, as written in the Lombok Treaty”, which “are not taken at face value in Jakarta. The unspoken response is that this was what Australia said about Timor Leste, until it mattered” (Chauvel 2019). To avoid further aggravating Australia’s relationship with Indonesia—one in which old wounds have perhaps only partially healed—any Australian move with regard to West Papua would need to affirm Australia’s trust in Indonesians’ good will toward West Papuans, be collaborative at the grassroots as well as diplomatic levels, and offer a win to both Jakarta and West Papuans. The remainder of this article discusses one proposal for such an approach.

 

Could Australia partner with Indonesia to improve human rights in West Papua?

Australian collaboration with Indonesian actors and institutions toward improved human rights in West Papua could operate at three levels. At the grassroots level, civil society in Australia could partner with civil society supporters of West Papuan rights in Indonesia to put pressure on the Indonesian government. Encouragingly, solidarity for West Papua from within Indonesia is growing rapidly at present, possibly due to Indonesia’s heightened awareness of racism in the context of the global Black Lives Matter movement (Koman and Kareni 2020). Prominent Indonesian activists for West Papua currently residing in Australia include, for example, Veronica Koman, a human rights lawyer who has given pro bono legal assistance to West Papuan activists standing trial in 2019 in Indonesia and who is a member of the Jayapura-based Human Rights Lawyers Association for Papua (see Octavianti 2020). Another is Hipolitus Wangge, an Indonesian academic undertaking a PhD in Australia, who spent three months in the West Papuan highlands regency of Nduga volunteering to help internally displaced persons fleeing an Indonesian military counterinsurgency (Wangge and Webb-Gannon 2020). There are also Indonesians who have a long history of supporting human rights in West Papua. Muridan Widjojo was an Indonesian scholar who, prior to his death in 2014, passionately advocated for peace in West Papua and hoped to broker dialogue between West Papuan and Indonesian government representatives. Andreas Harsono is an Indonesian researcher for Human Rights Watch based in Indonesia who monitors human rights violations in West Papua and advocates for justice. Budi Hernawan is an Indonesian academic and former Franciscan brother who worked for a church-based human rights organisation in West Papua for more than a decade. These are only a few of the many Indonesians working to stem human rights abuses in West Papua.

Pro-democracy advocates within Indonesia have joined West Papuans in calling for UN sanctioned human rights investigations into the crisis on Australia’s doorstep (Verroya 2020). Indonesia is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), the only international body that can undertake investigations into crimes against humanity and genocide within its member countries. Indonesia does, however, hold a seat on the Human Rights Council. If the UN Security Council is convinced that human rights abuses or genocidal acts are being conducted by a state, the Security Council can refer the situation to the ICC and ask the latter institution to undertake an investigation. At a minimum, the UN needs to undertake an independent investigation of other alleged human rights abuses, and now that Indonesia has a seat on the UN Human Rights Council, it should fully support such an investigation. The military still has much political influence in Indonesia, and bringing to account commanders who have committed human rights abuses seems to be politically difficult within the Indonesian legal system—with UN assistance, however, this may be feasible.3 Australians standing in solidarity with West Papua could strengthen ties with Indonesians doing the same to amplify calls for a UN investigation into human rights abuses in West Papua. Collaboration through webinars on important human rights issues in West Papua is another way Australian, Indonesian and West Papuan civil society members are working together to advocate for West Papuan rights. For example, in August 2020, Hipolitus Wangge appeared on a webinar with Australian and West Papuan activists that discussed why the proposed extension of Jakarta’s Special Autonomy law in West Papua would be a violation of Papuans’ right to self-determination (West Papua Project and International Academics for West Papua 2020) receiving 1,257 views on YouTube.

At the state diplomacy level, Australia would need to persuade Jakarta that a collaboration with Australia to this end would benefit Indonesia. Indonesia has been internationally condemned over its handling of human rights abuses in West Papua. Eighty-four countries have called for the United Nations Human Rights Commissioner to be allowed into West Papua to conduct a fact finding mission (ULMWP 2021) to investigate human rights abuses. Indonesia might be able to be convinced that working with a regional democratic power—Australia—toward improving human rights in West Papua would relieve, in the short term, some of the international pressure on Jakarta. The Australian government could encourage the Indonesian government to provide more support to Komnas HAM, Indonesia’s national human rights commission, to investigate security forces’ breaches of human rights in West Papua. Komnas HAM has reported being under-resourced (Iswinarno and Suri 2020) and its findings in a major human rights investigation in Paniai, West Papua, have been dismissed by the Indonesian government (Gorbiano and Sutrisno 2020). By urging Indonesia to strengthen its own internal human rights monitoring mechanisms, Australia could avoid the appearance of interfering with Indonesian sovereignty over West Papua.

Building on the second level, a third, or technical, level of collaboration may also be possible. Australia could offer the assistance of its experts with experience in the prosecution of war criminals. This could occur in tandem with a UN investigation. For example, after the Bosnian massacres, grave site excavations led by Australian forensic archaeologist Emeritus Professor Richard Wright, in conjunction with an investigation supported by an Australian Federal Agent at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (the ICTY), provided clear evidence of crimes relating to genocidal acts by senior Yugoslav military officers against Islamic Serbs. This resulted in the successful prosecution of a number of war criminals. Alternatively, if Indonesia is opposed to a UN investigation into human rights in West Papua, Australian forensic scientists and human rights experts could work bilaterally with Indonesia’s human rights commission, Komnas HAM, to gather evidence of atrocities in West Papua. Indonesia would need to be willing to bring the evidence to trial and prosecute, however, for such an approach to end impunity for rogue elements of the Indonesian military. This would obviously benefit West Papuans, but would also benefit Indonesia by building the professional capacity of Komnas HAM.

 

Conclusion

Individual Australians have had the courage to stand up to crimes against humanity perpetrated by the Indonesian military and militias in the past. Australian Federal Police officers caught children being thrown over the razor wire fence at the Dili compound in East Timor by parents desperate to save their children from the rampaging Indonesian militia. Australian soldiers were parachuted in to secure the Dili wharf, surrounded by heavily armed Indonesian military and militia, and anxiously awaited the main relief fleet from Darwin to arrive and help put an end to the bloodshed. Investigators and forensic archaeologists excavated the mass graves of Srebrenica under threat of Bosnian snipers. In each of these examples, Australians have demonstrated they have the moral fibre to help neighbours and those further afield in need. West Papuans are Australia’s neighbours, and they are also in need. Australia needs to step up once again to show regional leadership in protecting human rights.

We have argued in this article that there are three reasons why Australia is obliged to do so. As a signatory to the United Nations ‘responsibility to protect’ doctrine, Australia is required to intervene when other states are unable or unwilling to prevent atrocities within their borders. We presented our ‘massacre map’ of West Papua, and cited evidence that crimes against humanity are being committed by Indonesian security forces in West Papua. Based on the evidence presented in this paper, Australia has a responsibility to prevent these crimes from continuing. Australia also has a responsibility to help West Papua as a debt of gratitude stretching back to World War Two, and also as an apology for turning a blind eye to Indonesia’s rigging of the 1969 so-called Act of Free Choice. Third, Australia should help West Papua because it canhelp West Papua—it has the resources and expertise to do so. We proposed that there are three levels at which Australia might work with Indonesia to put an end to atrocity crimes in West Papua. First, concerned sectors of civil society in Australia and Indonesia could collaborate to raise awareness of human rights violations in West Papua and to call for a UN investigation into those violations. In many ways this has already been occurring. Second, Australia could work with Indonesia at a diplomatic level to convince Indonesia to strengthen its own internal human rights watchdog, Komnas HAM. Third, Australian experts with technical skills in investigating war crimes and crimes against humanity could collaborate in a capacity building partnership with Komnas HAM to collect evidence of abuses in West Papua, if Indonesia would agree to cooperate and prosecute.

The key to the success of any or all of these approaches is collaboration. Indonesia is extremely sensitive to challenges to its sovereignty. To avoid further diplomatic breakdown of relations between Canberra and Jakarta, Australian efforts to stop human rights abuses in West Papua should, in the first instance, include attempts to partner with Indonesia. This article has argued a normative case for Australia to support calls for a formal investigation into abuses in West Papua, either by the UN or by a better resourced Komnas HAM. Australia has the technical capacity to facilitate such an investigation. What remains in question is whether the Australian government has the courage and political will to become involved. Significant pressure from civil society can overturn government reluctance to act. It is our hope, as a collective of concerned Australian forensic archaeology and human rights specialists, that as evidence of atrocities mount up, Canberra will finally decide to fulfil to its ethical responsibilities.

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Camellia Webb-Gannon is a decolonization ethnographer focusing on the Pacific Islands region. She is a lecturer in social policy and coordinates the West Papua Project at the University of Wollongong. 

Michael Westaway is a biological anthropologist and archaeologist and has a strong interest in human evolution in Australia and South East Asia and zooarchaeology in Australia.

Jaime Swift is forensic anthropologist and osteoarchaeologist, currently undertaking a PhD in archaeological science at the University of Oxford as a Clarendon Scholar. She is also a consulting member to the Cranfield Recovery and Identification of Conflict Casualties Team.

Nathan Wright is currently a Visiting Scholar at the McDonald Institute of Archaeological Research, University of Cambridge and a Post Doctoral researcher at the University of Queensland. Nathan’s research interests include paleoenvironmental history especially in the Near East, Mediterranean, Australia and India.

Richard Adams has been affiliated with Disaster Relief Australia for the past two years, and developed and managed their Aerial Damage Assessment Team utilizing drone and satellite imagery to assess the impact of natural disasters.

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Notes

The contested territory comprising the western half of the island of New Guinea, currently divided by Indonesia into the provinces of Papua and West Papua, has been known by many names over the course of its colonial history. This article uses the name ‘West Papua’, a political moniker, to describe the entire territory, in keeping with Indigenous West Papuan preferences.

It was revealed, however, in documents later declassified, that at the time Australia was reluctant to intervene and ruffle Indonesia’s feathers, and only supported the peace enforcement mission, the urgency of which was impressed upon Indonesia by the US, at the eleventh-hour (Barker 2019b; Daley 2019).

Although this may prove difficult where such figures remain in positions of political power—for example, former commander of the TNI, Wiranto, who has been accused of crimes against humanity in East Timor, is now the security minister under the Widodo presidency.

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In a move that has prompted outrage in Cambodia and beyond, the Phnom Penh Municipal Court on May 5 sentenced five activists from the environmental group Mother Nature Cambodia.

Arrested in Phnom Penh on Sept. 3, 2020, Long Kunthea, Phuon Keoraksmey and Thun Ratha were charged with incitement to commit a felony and were then denied bail in October 2020 as the judge deemed the environmentalists a serious threat to social stability.

Long Kunthea, Thun Ratha and Phuon Keoraksmey were arrested September 2020 and convicted May 5, 2021. Images from LICADO (CC BY-SA 4.0).

(Left to right) Long Kunthea, Thun Ratha and Phuon Keoraksmey were arrested September 2020 and convicted May 5, 2021. Images from LICADHO (CC BY-SA 4.0).

The three had been campaigning to save Phnom Penh’s lakes, of which more than 60 percent had been filled in by December 2019, but it was Mother Nature Cambodia’s planned one-woman protest march that saw the three activists arrested.

Long Kunthea, 19 at the time of her arrest, had – with the help of Keoraksmey, 22, and 29-year-old Ratha – planned to walk from Wat Phnom to Prime Minister Hun Sen’s mansion in Phnom Penh where she hoped to discuss the risks associated with the lakes’ infilling. This peaceful, one-woman march that never took place was decried by authorities as felonious and all three were placed in pre-trial detention.

In their bid to raise awareness about the threats to the biodiversity and sustainable livelihoods provided by Boeung Tamok – Phnom Penh’s largest lake – the three activists spent eight months behind bars awaiting trial. The trial was initially set for Feb. 24, 2021, but Cambodia’s latest COVID-19 outbreak caused delays as the government scrambled to curb local transmission.

As such, Kunthea and Keoraksmey had to wait until May 5 to be told that they would both be spending the next 18 months in prison and would each be fined 4 million riel – close to $1,000 – for their part in planning a peaceful protest. Ratha meanwhile received a 20-month sentence, along with the $1,000 fine.

A boatload of farmers set out to harvest morning glory and other aquatic plants that sustain residents around Boeung Tamok. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

A boatload of farmers sets out to harvest morning glory and other aquatic plants that sustain residents around Boeung Tamok lake. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

Two other members of Mother Nature Cambodia, including the group’s Spanish founder Alejandro Gonzalez-Davidson and Cambodian activist Chea Kunthin, were sentenced in absentia with Gonzalez-Davidson receiving 20 months in prison while Kunthin was handed 18 months. Both were also fined $1,000 each.

“Mother Nature activists are used to being arbitrarily jailed and judicially harassed,” said Gonzalez-Davidson, who is banned from entering Cambodia. “This has happened to us countless of times since our inception in 2013 and the end result has so far always been pretty much the same: We grow stronger, more united, become smarter, and even more people want to join our movement.”

By Gonzalez-Davidson’s calculations, members of his group have been arrested more than six times while carrying out their environmental activism, although he noted that most were released shortly after their arrests.

“I do admit that we have never seen such a despotic level of repression as we have been seeing over the last couple of years, even state-sponsored terror one could call it, but this just makes the Hun Sen dictatorship even more unpopular and activates even more people into action,” he added.

Public outrage as lakes continue to be lost

The sentencing of young activists, particularly those as young as Kunthea and Keoraksmey, has prompted a public outcry in Cambodia and beyond, ranging from concern to downright anger.

Local human rights advocate Sar Mory of the Cambodian Youth Network took to social media to call the decision “baseless and shameful,” while Chak Sopheap, director of the Cambodian Center for Human Rights condemned the government for silencing activists rather than listening to them as ecological destruction runs rampant in Cambodia.

The risk of completely losing Boeung Tamok, which spanned 3,239 hectares (8,004 acres) when it was listed as state public land by sub-decree in 2016, has accelerated at a pace that has alarmed activists. While in 2018 and 2019, 119.2 hectares (295 acres) of the lake was filled in and sold off to developers, some 682 hectares (1,685 acres) was reallocated or sold to private developers in 2020 alone.

A truck delivering a mix of sand and soil to fill in Boeung Tamok. These trucks now make up the majority of vehicle traffic in the area. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

A truck delivering a mix of sand and soil to fill in Boeung Tamok lake. These trucks now make up the majority of vehicle traffic in the area. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

A row of dump-trucks deposit infill along the shore of Boeung Tamok. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

A row of dump trucks deposit infill to extend the shore of Boeung Tamok further into the lake. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

Sources say that after filling in sections of the lake, the government is giving out parcels of the new land to wealthy developers and government agencies to build on. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

Sources say that after filling in sections of the lake, the government is giving out parcels of the new land to wealthy developers and government agencies to build on. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

Throughout 2021, there have been new threats to the estimated 1,000 families who live on the lake’s shores and rely on it for fishing and farming. After intense criticism, the government backtracked on the decision to sell parts of the lake to developers, instead offering the land created by filling it in to government institutions for office space, but the exact volume of lake that will be lost is not publicly known.

Hun Sen lashed out at critics who he called “jealous” and vowed to continue sand mining to fill Cambodia’s lakes in the name of development, reducing the incarceration of activists such as Kunthea, Keoraksmey and Ratha to collateral damage in Phnom Penh’s pursuit of modernity.

“It is outrageous that the Phnom Penh Municipal Court has sentenced and imprisoned three young Cambodian activists who did not commit any crimes,” said Naly Pilorge, director of local human rights group LICADHO, which has been following the trial closely. “During the trial, not a shred of credible evidence was presented in court to support the ludicrous charges against all five Mother Nature activists.”

Roadside vendors selling fish and snails caught in Boeung Tamok. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

Roadside vendors selling fish and snails caught in Boeung Tamok. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

For Pilorge, the criminalization of peaceful protesters is an indication of the Cambodian government’s attitude towards democratic principles and universal human rights.

“The convictions are a blow to all young Cambodian activists who only want their government to protect the country’s natural resources,” Pilorge said. “Instead of sending them to Cambodia’s notoriously overcrowded prisons, the authorities should listen to the activists and preserve Cambodia’s fast-depleting natural resources.”

Cambodia’s prisons a public health risk amid the pandemic

Her concerns over the activists’ wellbeing is prison are well-founded – Cambodia’s entire penal system holds some 40,000 inmates across facilities designed to hold just 26,593 and overcrowding has long posed a huge risk amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Of those 40,000 prisoners, around 17,200 are believed to be in pre-trial detention and many wait months, if not years, before they even get to stand trial.

Despite warnings from rights groups and a COVID-19 scare in December 2020, Cambodia’s prisons have faced criticism for doing little to address the public health risk posed by the pandemic and more recently, an outbreak in Sihanoukville Prison has seen at least 34 inmates test positive for COVID-19 as of May 8, 2021.

Kunthea and Keoraksmey will be imprisoned in Correctional Center 2 (CC2) – a women’s prison in the Cambodian capital – until March 2022, while Ratha will remain incarcerated in Correctional Center 1 (CC1) until May 2022.

A farmer's house is visited by a boatman in the rapidly shrinking Boeung Tamok. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

A farmer’s house is visited by a boatman in the rapidly shrinking Boeung Tamok lake. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

Both prisons have been identified as notoriously overcrowded. As far back as 2010, long before Cambodia’s failed war on drugs saw the prison population explode in 2016, CC1 was believed to be operating at 165% of occupant capacity, while CC2 held inmates at a rate of 259% overcapacity.

Nouth Savna, deputy-director of the General Department of Prisons, declined to comment on how overpopulated CC1 or CC2 were currently, but while some new facilities have been built since 2016 and others expanded, the prison population has gone one way: Up.

As of March 2021, LICADHO estimated that CC1 currently holds 7,466 inmates, operating at 364% of the facility’s capacity of 2,050. Things appear to be even worse at CC2, which was designed to hold just 350 prisoners, but now houses 1,301 – 371% overcapacity and straining the effectiveness of public health measures.

The crisis brewing in Cambodia’s prison system, coupled with the charges against and subsequent conviction of the Mother Nature activists for inciting “social chaos,” has drawn harsh criticism from various international observers.

Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International – who recognize the jailed activists as prisoners of conscience – and Civicus all released independent statements lambasting Cambodia’s persecution of environmental activists.

“These environmental activists show incredible bravery by shining a light on corruption and rights abuses connected to crony business projects that threaten Cambodia’s natural resources and biodiversity,” said Phil Robertson, deputy-director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia division.

“Today’s convictions are part of the Cambodian government’s continued vendetta against Mother Nature, a thorn in the government’s side that the officials are now moving to destroy through bogus criminal charges,” he added.

Robertson called on the UN, foreign governments and donors to demand the activists’ freedom.

Shortly after, three UN special rapporteurs led by Mary Lawlor – who specializes in human rights defenders – wrote a joint statement condemning the court’s verdict and the lack of due process in the activists’ trial.

“While the three human rights defenders may still file an appeal, I urge the Cambodian Government to immediately and unconditionally release them,” Lawlor said. “No one should be criminalized for undertaking legitimate human rights work.”

Ambassadors from the U.S. and Australia also took to social media voicing “deep concern” and suggesting that Mother Nature Cambodia’s activism was merely the exercising of a “basic human right.”

Environmental degradation the real source of social instability

For all the noise made by local and international rights defenders, it appears unlikely that Cambodia’s politically controlled judiciary will reverse its decision.

Spokesperson for the Ministry of Justice Chin Malin declined to comment on the situation, directing reporters to his official Facebook page instead. Here, Malin claimed that Mother Nature Cambodia was supporting a foreign agenda and that the trial had been conducted in accordance with Cambodian laws that could not be influenced by foreign interventions.

Five people steer their boat through the vegetation atop the surface of Boeung Tamok. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

Five people steer their boat through the vegetation atop the surface of Boeung Tamok while new land created by filling in the lake looms in the background – and over the future. Image by Gerald Flynn for Mongabay.

But as spats over the court’s decision continue to flare, the environmental destruction that prompted Mother Nature’s activism continues unabated. Cambodia’s lakes aren’t the only things disappearing; the country has lost more than 30% of its primary forest cover since the turn of the century, according to satellite data from the University of Maryland (UMD) visualized on Global Forest Watch. Preliminary data suggest indicate 2021 is on track to be a particularly bad year for the country’s remaining forests, with UMD detecting “unusually high” numbers of deforestation alerts in March and April.

Gonzalez-Davidson warns that for all the accusations of creating social instability that have been leveled at the activists, the threats posed by environmental degradation are much more real.

“The destruction of the environment for the benefit of a very small Cambodian elite has been seen for over decades – done, of course, under the facade of development – this is starting to cause not just social instability but also land dispossession, food insecurity, floods and draughts,” he said, noting that Cambodia’s environment is linked closely to its culture, religion and economy.

The current level of destruction, he argued, could bring about massive social upheaval.

“I think that we are already starting to see this, but it will become even more evident in the years to come when we factor in other elements such as climate change,” he said. “It could be slowed down or even reversed to, but only if the Hun Sen dictatorship ends.”

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Featured image: Another Mother Nature Cambodia activist, Chhoeun Daravy, was arrested August 2020. Image courtesy of LICADHO (CC BY-SA 4.0).

China Blocks US Bases in Central Asia

May 18th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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Ten months after the first meeting of the foreign ministers of China and the five Central Asian states, Beijing has followed through with a second session on May 11 at a gathering in Xi’an, China, hosted by Foreign Minister Wang Yi. 

The venue is symbolic. The ancient city of Xi’an used to be the ‘terminus a quo’ of the Silk Road. And, perhaps, the timing too, as this is also the 25th anniversary of the ‘Shanghai Five’ process, where China, quietly but steadily, began building up its economic, military, and diplomatic relations with Central Asia and presented itself as viable partner.

The Xi’an meeting is a watershed event as it creates ‘institutional guarantee’ for the nascent ‘C+C5’ framework. The participants agreed on a memorandum of understanding to establish a regional cooperation mechanism, promote the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road and establish three research centres to carry out cooperation. 

‘A journey of a thousand Chinese miles (li) starts beneath one’s feet,’ the ancient Chinese proverb says. Even as the Shanghai Five process blossomed into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, C+C5 too appears to be destined to scale heights.

The Shanghai Five consisted of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, also had a modest beginning in 1996 as it emerged from a series of border demarcation and demilitarisation talks which the four former Soviet republics held with China. The institutionalisation of the C+C5 also marks a turning point in regional security — as the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan gets under way amidst speculation that Pentagon is looking for basing facilities in Central Asian countries. 

Interestingly, the shadows of the great game have appeared too. The Xi’an meeting comes within eighteen days of a similar meeting in ‘C5+1’ format with the participation of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (in virtual mode of course.) Inner Asia is famous for shamanic spirits and Buddhist gods. It is unclear whether Blinken stole a march or vice versa. 

An editorial in China Daily, the government newspaper, on Thursday flagged the high importance attached by Beijing to the C+C5 diplomatic initiative. It noted that the C+C5 mechanism “outlines an action plan that provides a stronger institutional guarantee for their cooperation.” 

The editorial continued,

“Transforming their shared will to pursue common development into concrete projects and actions, they have agreed to establish a C+C5 regional cooperation mechanism, promote the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road and establish three research centers to carry out cooperation in modern agriculture, archaeological and cultural heritage and traditional medicine.” 

More importantly, the editorial said that the C+C5 meeting strengthened the “strategic mutual trust, and agreed to make concerted efforts to build a China and Central Asia community with a shared future… (and) work together to promote regional security and stability and safeguard international justice.” 

It highlighted a joint statement issued after the discussions as regards “their joint efforts to promote peaceful reconciliation in Afghanistan, demonstrating that the six countries will play a bigger role as a whole… That they have agreed to establish a regular meeting mechanism of the C+C5 foreign ministers indicates they are well aware of the importance of regional unity and coordination.” 

Beijing’s motivations appear to be two-fold: send “a clear signal that they (C+C5) stand together in opposing interference in their internal affairs, and any actions threatening their core development interests”; and,  emphatically state “their common contention that Central Asia is neither a stage for any power to engineer a colour revolution nor a place where any power can attempt to sow seeds of discord”. 

Foreign Minister Wang stressed that it is necessary for neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, “to coordinate their positions in a timely manner, speak with one voice, and fully support the Afghan domestic peace process to overcome difficulties and move forward.” 

Equally, a commentary in the Global Times has elaborated on Beijing’s concerns that the US pull out “could leave chaotic situations and the region could become a breeding ground for “Three Evils” — terrorism, separatism and religious extremism.

The commentary cited expert opinion that aside Russia and China, the Central Asian countries will also be “reluctant to host US military deployment on their soil”, since increased US political and intelligence activities and involvement with local opposition parties, NGOs and media groups would only lead to colour revolution. “In general, US troops are not very welcome in the region.”  

Besides, the Chinese experts are also worried that the hasty US pullout may stall the Afghan peace process and engender civil war conditions, while the US allowed the region to become a ‘breeding ground’ for the ‘Three Evils’ and poppy cultivation — “and now Washington wants to leave this mess to the regional countries.” 

At the Xi’an meeting, Wang elaborated China’s position on the Afghan peace process as such. The 3 key elements are: the need for inclusive political arrangements to make sure all ethnic groups and parties could participate; drafting of a constitution that conforms to unique Afghan national conditions and development needs, instead of imitating western-style democracy; and, “moderate Muslim policy” as state iedology.    

Beijing claims that its approach and Russia’s are complementary — “Russia caring more about security, and China has the economic capability.” Now, wouldn’t SCO have served the purpose? One reason could be that the SCO is no longer the same after the induction of India and Pakistan as members.

Conceivably, Russia, which is already focused on the upcoming summit with POTUS, remains chary of touching American raw nerves. That probably puts the onus on Beijing to do the heavy lifting. An exclusive ope-ed in the CCP organ People’s Daily today is titled U.S. can’t just get away from it all in Afghan issues. It concludes, 

“At present, the US is the biggest exterior factor of the Afghan issues. The White House shall not duck its responsibilities and get away from it all. Its withdrawal must be implemented in an orderly and responsible manner, and aim at preventing further escalation of violence in the country and preventing terrorist forces from ramping up and creating trouble. It shall create a favourable exterior environment for the Intra-Afghan Negotiations, not the other way around.” 

Indeed, Moscow would consider it injudicious to be so outspoken at this juncture, knowing how ultra-sensitive Biden would be. In fact, the US troops vacated the massive Kandahar airbase under cover of darkness in the night of May 11-12 without even informing Afghan officials. 

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Featured image: 1300-km long Tajik-Afghan border runs through difficult and dangerous terrain and is a major drug crossing area (File photo)  

A Wider War Coming to Myanmar

May 17th, 2021 by Bertil Lintner

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No group has yet claimed responsibility for several, almost simultaneous attacks on military targets in central Myanmar, including air bases recently used to target ethnic armed groups in the nation’s frontier areas.

Security analysts, however, believe the shadowy attacks are likely the work of an alliance between ethnic rebels and urban-based pro-democracy dissidents, with the former providing the explosives and the latter knowledge of local conditions in the Myanmar heartland.

If that assessment is accurate and the hits were not isolated incidents, it could mean that Myanmar’s long-running, low-intensity civil wars are spreading from ethnic minority areas in the nation’s periphery to major cities and towns.

Three months after top generals seized power from a popularly elected government and despite the fact that military and police have gunned down over 750 and arrested well over 4,000 protesters, people are still bravely taking to the streets to vent their anger with the coup.

The ongoing popular resistance underscores what is by now widely seen as perhaps the most unsuccessful coup in modern Asian history. That could yet spell ill for coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who has stuck stubbornly to his guns amid rising international condemnation that is deeply isolating the country.

There are certain indications provided confidentially to Asia Times by military insiders that veterans of previous ruling juntas, namely the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), are growing wary of Min Aung Hlaing’s perceived as ineffective and polarizing actions and tactics.

Recent developments, including the attacks on military airbases, have opened a Pandora’s box of possibilities and scenarios that were largely unforeseen when the tanks rolled into the main city of Yangon three months ago and scores of elected MPs and other politicians were arrested and detained in the capital Naypyitaw.

Those include a wider civil war in the nation’s central region heartland, including near the generals’ bunker-like capital at Naypyidaw. On April 29, unidentified militants fired rockets at air force bases in Magwe and Meiktila in central Myanmar.

Another explosion detonated at a Myanmar Army weapons storage facility near Bago city, about 70 kilometers north of Yangon. Those attacks came after intense fighting between the Myanmar military, known as Tatmadaw, and ethnic rebels from the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) on the border with Thailand.

The shadowy unclaimed attacks on airbases also coincided with intensified battles with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in the country’s far north, where many pro-democracy activists have sought refuge after bloody crackdowns in urban areas.

The Tatmadaw’s attacks have been marked by airstrikes on rebel targets which have included civilian villages. That’s caused the recent displacement of more than 25,000 villagers in Kayin state and at least 5,000 in Kachin state. That adds to the tens of thousands who fled their homes amid earlier fighting in the areas.

Long-time observers of Myanmar’s politics have privately drawn parallels between current events and what happened after an even bloodier coup in 1988, when thousands of dissidents also took to the hills and jungles after the Tatmadaw crushed another nationwide, pro-democracy uprising.

But, they note, there are fundamental differences between the events of 1988 and current developments. In 1988, young urban dissidents formed the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF), donned uniforms and fought alongside ethnic rebels in the frontier areas.

At that time, it was much easier to acquire weapons from grey Thai arms markets and dissident groups had ready sanctuaries — and even offices — in neighboring Thailand. However, improved relations between the Thai and Myanmar militaries coupled with severe entry restrictions into Thailand caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have at least so far kept the dissidents on the Myanmar side of the border.

The old ABSDF exists now only in name as most of its cadres have either surrendered or been resettled in third countries. The ABSDF’s ultimately failed uprising could explain why the new ethnic-urban alliance has taken on a different and potentially more explosive form.

Indeed, recent developments seem to signal the beginning of hitherto unseen urban warfare, which the Tatmadaw is ill-equipped to handle. Apart from the obvious alliances between informal groups of pro-democracy activists and ethnic rebels, local resistance forces have already emerged in Sagaing Region and Chin state. Reports indicate similar forces are coalescing in Mon state and Mandalay Region.

Social media posts show those local partisans are equipped with hunting rifles and homemade explosives but have nonetheless been able to inflict significant casualties on the police and military, including in Kalay in Sagaing Region. In nearby Chin state, a new force called the Chinland Defense Force reportedly killed 15 junta troops in their area.

Shadowy bomb and Molotov cocktail attacks have been reported against police stations in Yangon, Mandalay and Monywa.

At the same time, the Tatmadaw must contend with battle-hardened ethnic armies. In the country’s far north, there have been over 50 clashes since Kachin rebels overran and captured a Tatmadaw outpost on the strategic Alawbum mountain near the Chinese border on March 25.

Airstrikes have failed to dislodge the KIA, which has carried out subsequent attacks near the Hpakant jade mines in western Kachin state and north of Sumprabum in the state’s north.

In Kayin State, the Free Burma Rangers nongovernmental organization reports daily fights between the Tatmadaw and KNLA, despite the fact the two sides entered a ceasefire agreement in October 2015.

That agreement, which included the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and eight smaller, rather insignificant groups, was termed a “Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement” (NCA), although it was neither nationwide nor led to even a semblance of peace in frontier areas.

Although the KNLA and the KIA have sided openly with Myanmar’s until now peaceful Civil Disobedience Movement, other ethnic groups have been less supportive. In a March 27 interview with Reuters, RCSS chairman Yawd Serk said his group would not stand by idly if the junta’s forces continue to kill protesters but his vow hasn’t been followed up with any clear action.

On the contrary, the RCSS has been fighting a rival Shan group, the Shan State Army of the Shan State Progress Party and its ethnic Palaung allies in the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) for control of areas in northern Shan state.

Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic army, the 20,000-30,000 strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), has remained conspicuously silent since the coup. Not all Wa agree with the stance: Ten Wa civil society organizations signed on March 25 a written, urgent plea to the UWSA and its political wing the United Wa State Party to say something.

That hasn’t happened though, probably because the UWSA is so closely allied with China’s security services, which do not want to get involved with Myanmar’s anti-coup movement. Protesters have targeted Beijing’s perceived support of the regime at the United Nations. Several Chinese factories were torched in Yangon in one spasm of violence.

The 7,000-strong Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine state, one of Myanmar’s most powerful rebel armies, which has killed hundreds of Tatmadaw soldiers in recent fighting, has taken a more surprising stance. It entered into ceasefire talks with the Tatmadaw in November last year and was taken off its list of “terrorist” organizations soon after the February 1 coup.

Its leader, Twan Mrat Naing, said on April 16 at the UWSA’s Panghsang headquarters that the ousted National League for Democracy government claimed that it would create a federal union with equal rights for all nationalities but failed to deliver on the promise. With that view, it’s doubtful the AA will join any grand alliance between urban dissidents and ethnic armies.

Even without a unified ethnic resistance, there is still a chance that the Tatmadaw’s old guard could move to break the stalemate by pressuring or even trying to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing and his top deputies before the situation deteriorates further.

The SLORC and SPDC were likewise brutal outfits and no friends of democracy, but former junta chief and commander-in-chief Senior General Than Shwe did initiate liberal reforms that led to a more open society and vastly improved relations with the West and wider world before stepping aside in 2010.

Than Shwe is now in his late 80s and political analysts in Myanmar believe that the current chaos is hardly the kind of legacy he would want to leave behind. Whether the aging general has the wherewithal, influence or inclination to try to rein in Min Aung Hlaing is unknown, but the anarchy unleashed by his coup is clearly not in the military establishment’s short or long-term interests.

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Elbowed and Hustled: Australia’s Yellow Peril Problem

May 17th, 2021 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

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With the babble about Cold War paranoia becoming a routine matter in Canberra, the treacherous ground for war with China is being bedded down and readied.  The Yellow Peril image never truly dissipated from Australia’s politics.  It was crucial in framing the first act of the newly born Commonwealth in 1901: the Immigration Restriction Act.  Even as China was being ravaged and savaged by foreign powers and implosion, there was a fear that somewhere along the line, a reckoning would come.  Charles Henry Pearson, a professor of history at King’s College London, penned his National Life and Character: a Forecast (1893) with fear in mind.  The expansion of the West into all parts of the globe and its claims to progress would soon have to face a new reality: the threat posed by the “Black and Yellow races”.  

Pearson fastened on various developments.  The population of China was booming.  The Chinese diaspora, the same, making their presence felt in places such as Singapore.  “The day will come and perhaps is not far distant, when the European observer will look round to see the globe girdled with a continuous zone of the black and yellow races, no longer too weak for aggression or under tutelage, but independent, or practically so, in government, monopolising the trade of their own regions, and circumscribing the industry of the Europeans”.  Europeans would be “elbowed and hustled, and perhaps even thrust aside by peoples whom we looked down upon as servile and thought of as bound always to minister to our needs.” 

The work’s effect was such as to have a future US President Theodore Roosevelt claim in a letter to Pearson that “all our men here in Washington … were greatly interested in what you said.  In fact, I don’t suppose that any book recently, unless it is Mahan’s ‘Influence of Sea Power’ has excited anything like as much interest or has caused so many men to feel like they had to revise their mental estimates of facts”.

Anxiety, and sheer terror of China and the Chinese became part of the political furniture in Washington and in Britain’s dominions.  In Australia, such views were fastened and bolted in the capital.  The country’s first Prime Minister, Edmund Barton, drew upon Pearson’s work extensively in justifying the Immigration Restriction Act in 1901.  The White Tribe had to be protected.  

In 1966, the Australian historian Donald Horne noted the continuing sense of impermanence for those living on the island continent, that “feeling that one morning we shall wake up to find that we are no longer here”.   He recalled the views of an unnamed friend about China’s political aspirations, voiced in 1954.  By 1957, he predicted, Southeast Asia would have fallen to its soldiers.  Australia would duly follow, becoming a dependency. “Because of the submerged theme of impermanence and even catastrophe in the Australian imagination,” observed Horne, “the idea of possible Chinese dominance is ‘believable’ to Australians”.

There was a hiatus from such feeling through the 1980s and 1990s.   The view in Australia, as it was in the United States, was that China could be managed to forget history, disposing itself to making money and bringing its populace out of poverty.  But historical amnesia failed to take hold in Beijing.

Australian current actions in stoking the fires of discord over China serve a dual purpose.  There is a domestic, electoral dimension: external enemies are always useful, even if they are mere apparitions.   Therein lies the spirit of Barton, the besieged White tribe fearing submergence.  The other is to be found in the realm of foreign policy and military security.  Australian strategists have never been entirely sure how far the ANZUS Treaty could be relied upon.   

One moment of candour on what might happen to trigger ANZUS obligations took place in 2004.  Australia’s Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, on a trip to Beijing, pondered the issue of how a security relationship with China might affect US-Australian ties.  Asked by journalist Hamish McDonald whether Australia had a treaty obligation to assist the US in defending Taiwan, the minister stated that the treaty was “symbolic” and would only be “invoked in the event of one of our two countries, Australia or the United States, being attacked.  So some other military activity elsewhere in the world, be it in Iraq or anywhere else for that matter does not automatically invoke the ANZUS Treaty.”   Its provisions, he observed, had only been invoked once: when the United States was attacked on September 11, 2001.

This startlingly sound reading did not go down well.  The press wondered if this cast doubt over “ANZUS loyalties”.  The US Ambassador to Canberra John Thomas Schieffer leapt into action to clarify that there was an expectation that Australia muck in should the US commit forces to battle in the Pacific.  “[T]reaty commitments are that we are to come to the aid of each other in the event of either of our territories are attacked, or if either of our interests are attacked, our home territories are attacked or if either of our interests are attacked in the Pacific.”  One cable from the Australian government attempted to pacify any fears about Australia’s reliability by suggesting that, “Some media reporting had taken elements [of Downer’s comments] out of context.”

The argument has now been turned.  Discussion about Taiwan, and whether Australian blood would be shed over it, has much to do with keeping Washington focused on the Asia- and Indo-Pacific, finger on the trigger.  If Canberra shouts loudly and foolishly enough that it will commit troops and weapons to a folly-ridden venture over Taiwan, Washington will be duly impressed to dig deeper in the region to contain Beijing.  This betrays a naivety that comes with relying on strategic alliances with little reflection, forgetting that Washington will decide, in due course, what its own interests are.

So far, the Morrison government will be pleased with what the Biden administration has said.  Australia could be assured of US support in its ongoing diplomatic wrangle Beijing.  In the words of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, “the United States will not leave Australia alone on the field, or maybe I should say alone on the pitch, in the face of economic coercion by China.  That’s what allies do.  We have each other’s backs so we can face threats and challenges from a position of collective strength.”

Australia’s anti-China rhetoric has its admirers.  Michael Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute – a US security think tank in all but name – dismisses the value of words such as “major conflict,” preferring the substance of action.  He talks about “honesty” about China, which is grand coming from a member of an outfit which is less than frank about its funding sources and motivations.  That honesty, he assumes, entails blaming China for belligerence.  “Reporting what [President] Xi says and what the PLA and other Chinese armed forces do is not ‘stoking the drums of war’; it’s noticing what is happening in our region that affects our security.”

Thankfully, former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans is closer to the sane fringe in noting that words, in diplomacy, are bullets.  He reminds us of “the immortal wisdom of the 1930s Scottish labour leader Jimmy Maxton: ‘If you can’t ride two horses at once, you shouldn’t be in the bloody circus.” 

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Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research. Email: [email protected]

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The US, France, and Japan on Tuesday began joint ground and naval military exercises, marking the first time the three countries are holding drills together in Japanese territory.

The week-long exercises come as the US is looking to boost military cooperation between its allies in the region to counter China. Tensions between Japan and China have been high due to a dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

The exercises started in the Nagasaki Prefecture at Camp Ainoura, where Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade is headquartered. The Japanese amphibious unit was established in 2018 and was created to focus on outlying islands that Japan claims, like the Senkakus, or Diayous as they are known in China.

Speaking to reporters, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said Tokyo was looking to expand its military ties with “like-minded” countries beyond the US. He described France as “a like-minded country that shares with Japan the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Australia will also join a part of the exercises that will be held in the East China Sea. The US, Japan, Australia, and India form the informal grouping known as the Quad, which is seen as a possible foundation for a NATO-style military alliance in Asia. France joined the Quad for military exercises when it led naval drills in the Bay of Bengal.

Strengthening military ties in Asia is a crucial part of the Biden administration’s China policy. In his first address to Congress, President Biden said he told Chinese President Xi Jinping that the US “will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe.”

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Dave DeCamp is the news editor of Antiwar.com, follow him on Twitter @decampdave.

Featured image is from CC BY-SA 3.0

China Eyes Strategic Airfield Deep in the Pacific

May 11th, 2021 by Dave Makichuk

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China could be moving a crucial chess piece into position in the Pacific frontier — and there isn’t a single thing the US can do about it.

According to media reports, a derelict airfield on a remote Pacific island in the Republic of Kiribati could soon get an upgrade from the People’s Republic of China.

The two nations re-established ties two years ago and have embarked on new cooperation projects, including infrastructure investment as well as trade and cultural exchanges.

If the report is true, this could give Beijing an airbase in an incredibly strategical location, between North America and New Zealand, potentially giving China’s military much greater reach throughout a critical and increasingly tense region, The War Zone reported.

Reuters first reported on Chinese developments in Kiribati, which also included improvements to a bridge associated with the airstrip, on May 5, 2021, based on information from I-Kiribati politician Tessie Lambourne.

“The government hasn’t shared the cost and other details other than it’s a feasibility study for the rehabilitation of the runway and bridge,” Lambourne,  who formed the Boutokaan Kiribati Moa Party last year, which is in opposition to President Taneti Maamau’s Tobwaan Kiribati Party, told Reuters.

“The opposition will be seeking more information from [the] government in due course.”

The site — on the island of Kanton, also spelled Canton, part of the archipelago nation of Kiribati — currently has a single usable runway, officially measuring 6,230 feet in length, although the total unimproved length is closer to 8,000 feet, based on satellite imagery.

The ribbon-shaped island, which has a total area of only around 15 square miles and a population of approximately 20, is part of Kiribati’s wider Phoenix Islands group, none of the others of which are inhabited.

A satellite view of the island of Canton in the Kiribati archipelago in the Pacific Ocean. The airbase is located in the top corner. Credit: Google Earth.

During World War II, the coral atoll’s airstrip was used by the US Army Air Forces as part of an air ferry route between Hawaii and the South Pacific.

After the war, civil operators also used it as a trans-Pacific stopover. The United States also made use of the island for space and missile tracking up until the late 1960s.

Today, Canton Island Airport is used only for emergencies.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), a Canberra-based think tank funded in part by the Australian Department of Defense, fretted in a September 2020 article that Beijing was likely to reclaim seabed and expand island installations in Kiribati as well as fortify them, as it has done to some South China Sea islands.

It accused China of “moving to achieve control over the vital trans-Pacific sea lines of communication under the guise of assisting with economic development and climate-change adaptation.”

The island would in fact become “ a fixed aircraft carrier,” according to one military analyst.

And should it become a military facility, the airstrip would most likely be used as a base for the plethora of unmanned reconnaissance drones used by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

It could also hold an overt military component, including other anti-access and area denial capabilities, such as surface-to-air missiles or shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles.

The existing runway, once modernized, could be long enough to support fighter deployments, but the improved section would likely need to be extended out to the full 8,000 feet length to support maritime patrol aircraft or even bombers.

A considerable investment would also need to be made to supporting infrastructure to sustain any kind of meaningful, longer-term deployment, including hangars, fuelling and maintenance facilities and accommodations for aircrew and ground personnel.

As well as providing a foothold in a strategic location, China’s plans for Kiribati could also impact its access to that nation’s extensive exclusive economic zone, which covers more than 1.35 million square miles and includes some of the most productive fishing grounds in the Pacific.

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Featured image: A derelict airfield on a remote Pacific island in the Republic of Kiribati could soon get an upgrade from the People’s Republic of China. The two nations re-established ties two years ago and have embarked on new cooperation projects, including infrastructure investment as well as trade and cultural exchanges. Credit: Google Earth.

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Now it is almost 170 years that people of this country; men, women, children belonging to all religions, regions and strata rose in revolt from Kashmir to Madras and Sylhet to the borders of Afghanistan. Today if Indians have forgotten about this glorious saga of commitment and sacrifices for the liberation of India can be forgiven in absence of the contemporary narratives. But what independent India did to obliterate the memories of this great War immediately after independence on August 15, 1947, when only 90 years had elapsed to this great War, could only be described as criminal.

It is true that we spent crores of rupees in celebrating the 100th 150th anniversaries of the War but did not bother to revive the common heritage of the joint martyrdoms of this glorious struggle. Earlier, the first education minister of the independent India, Abul Kalam Azad organized a team of renowned historians to compile the list of pan-Indian martyrs of the War but it was abandoned. On the eve of 150th anniversary Indian Council of Historical produced volumes with details of martyrs which unfortunately not available now.

True, these were worthy deeds but the issue was not only of chronicling the sacrifices but how to undo the injustice done to the liberation warriors who not only lost their lives but all their properties were confiscated and given to Indian stooges who helped the foreign rulers with all kinds of human and non-human resources for suppressing the mutiny.

We cannot overlook the fact that Indians lost this War despite mass upsurge and support. The perusal of the contemporary documents makes it clear that it was due to the Indian stooges that we lost this War. Reasons are not difficult to find out. Kaye was forthright in his conclusion that these were princes who helped the British in recapturing India after 1857 revolt. According to him,

“It was one of the most curious characteristics of the mutiny-war, that although the English were supposed to be fighting against the native races, they were in reality sustained and supported by the Natives of the country, and could not have held their own for a day without the aid of those whom we hated as our national enemies.”

William Russell, war correspondent in one of the dispatches (May 9, 1858) wrote that

“Our siege of Delhi, would have been quite impossible, if the rajahs [sic] of Patiala and of Jhind (now known as Jind in Haryana) had not been our friends, and if the Sikhs had not recruited (in) our battalions, and remained quite in Punjab. The Sikhs at Lucknow did good service…as our armies were attended and strengthened by them in the field”

It is to be noted here that when Russell referred to Sikhs, it did not mean common Sikhs but the Sikh rulers of Punjab. Moreover, these were not the only rulers who came to sub-serve the interest of the British masters when the latter were on the verge of losing India. The rulers of Kashmir, Hyderabd, Gwalior, Nabha, Kapurthala, Udaipur, Jaipur, Alwar, Kotah, Bhopal, Pataudi and hundreds others joined the bandwagon of the British imperialism in the War.

Sir Charles Aitchison, who played a leading role in suppressing ‘Mutiny’ not only hailed the crucial contribution of such stooge princes in winning India in the following words:

“The Native States rendered priceless service in the day of our distress…Speaking in the fullness of his gratitude; Lord Canning [the Governor General] described them as ‘breakwaters to the storm, which would otherwise have swept over us in one great wave.’ ‘The safety of our rule is increased,’ he wrote, ‘not diminished, by the maintenance of Native Chiefs well affected to us…And should the day come when India shall be threatened by an external enemy, or when the interests of England elsewhere may require that her Eastern Empire shall incur more than ordinary risk, one of our best mainstays will be found in these Native States.’”

Nana Saheb’ the great commander of the revolutionary army who continued fighting till 1858 in the Terai (foothill) region between India and Nepal and died there in a letter [dated 7th Sudi of Kartik, Samvat 1915 (1858) addressed to the Indians wrote:

“This was the defeat of the entire country not mine (alone)…I lived and fought for the country’s freedom. These wicked princes for their own selfish ends have handed over the country to the British otherwise the Firanghis [sic] were no match for us.”

The post-1857 era witnessed an India in which only those princely states survived which either had worked as the stooges of the colonial masters in this War or were pardoned by the British. The entire lot of nationalists who challenged the foreign rule was ruthlessly suppressed. Most of them died fighting or were hanged; their families banished and their estates confiscated and handed over to the loyal princes.

On the eve of independence the first decision which independent India’s sovereign government should have taken must have been to return the properties of the families of the martyrs which were confiscated and given as rewards to the Indian stooges. The whole nation knows how the descendants of these revolutionaries including those belonging to princely families lived life of penury, hunger and died miserable deaths, unknown.  Out of thousands, here are few examples of gross and criminal injustice which needed immediate redressal but we kept mum as a State and nation.

According to the contemporary British gazetteers the estates of Raja of Gonda and Rani of Tulsipur,

“were confiscated and conferred as rewards upon Maharaja Drigbijai Singh of Balrampur and Sir Man Singh of Ajodhya”.

Scindhia of Gwalior who helped the British greatly in defeating Rani Laxmi Bai and Nana and their killings, as per the contemporary British gazetteer

“For his services in the mutiny lands worth 3 lakhs a year revenue were made over to him, while he was allowed to increase his infantry from 3,000 to 5,000 men and his artillery from 32 to 36 guns.”

We come to know again through a contemporary British gazetteer that,

“Wazir Muhammad Khan, who, during the Mutiny, repulsed with comparatively few men an attack made on the Tonk fort by the combined forces of Nawab of Banda and Tantia Topi [sic]. For these services, his salute was raised from 15 to 17 guns…”

Ruler of Patiala who as an ally of the British played a  prominent role in crushing rebellion in Haryana, Delhi, Oudh received huge ‘inaam’,

“After 1857 Narendra Singh’s splendid services were rewarded with the gift of sovereign rights in the Narnaul division of the forfeited State of the Jhajjar Nawab, assessed at a revenue of two lakhs on condition of political and military support in times of general danger or disturbance. He was also permitted to purchase the Kanaud pargana of Jhajjar and the taluka of Khamaon in perpetual sovereignty in liquidation of loans advanced to the British Government during the Mutiny. In addition, the Maharaja was granted administrative jurisdiction over Bhadaur, and the right of escheats and reversion to lapsed estates therein, receiving the annual sum of Rs. 5,265, previously paid into the Imperial treasury by the Bhadaur Sardars. Narendra Singh was made a K.C.S.I., in 1861…”

Likewise, Raja Randhir Singh of Kapurthala State who helped the British to crush rebellion in Delhi and Oudh

“was rewarded with a grant of the two confiscated estates of Bundi and Bithauli, in the Bharaich and Bara Banki districts in Oudh, yielding a rental of Rs. 4,35,000. His brother, Kunwar Bikrama Singh, who had accompanied the Raja to Oudh, was given a portion of the Akauna estate in Bharaich, yielding Rs. 45,000 a year. The Raja of Kapurthala stood fifth in order of precedence among the chiefs of the Punjab. He was entitled to a salute of eleven guns, and to receive a return visit from the Viceroy.”

The Pataudi family too was rewarded for services rendered during the mutiny.

“He [nawab of Pataudi] also took an active part in the suppression of a rising in the Bahora pargana of Gurgaon, organized by one Tula Ram, grandson of Rao Tej Singh of Rewari; and his troops were present on the side of order at the action outside Jaurasi, which lasted for two days… Pataudi ranks seventeenth in order of precedence amongst the Native States of the Punjab, and the chief is entitled to be received by the Viceroy.”

The British rulers were grateful to Jodhpur Raja when stated:

“The Maharaja [Takht Singh of Jodhpur] did good service during the Mutiny. He was entitled for a salute of 17 guns. Takht Singh died in 1873, when he was succeeded by eldest son, Jaswant Singh…He was created a GCSI in 1875 and subsequently his salute was raised first to 19, and next to 21 guns.”

The Pawayan [in Shahjahanpur] was ruled by a notorious British stooge, Raja Jagannath Singh when 1857 happened. In a gut-wrenching treachery he invited the leading commander of the rebellion Maulvi Ahmedullah Shah posing as supporter of the War. However, when Maulvi reached his palace in the evening he was beheaded by Jagannath’s brother Baldeo Singh. The British had announced a prize of 50 thousand pieces of silver for beheading the Maulvi. He presented Maulvi’s severed head same night to the British commander of the area and received cash ‘inaam’ as reward. In his absence the rebel forces including under the command of Nana and Hazrat Mahal lost important battle and revolutionary rule in Rohilkhand came to an end. The decadents of this criminal family became legislators, ministers both at the Stat and central levels. This is how we paid homage to 1857 martyrs!

Apart from these stooges, rulers of Dhar, Bhopal, Nizam, Ratlam, Alwar, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Jammu, Rewa, Ayodhya, Rampur and hundreds other were rewarded for suppressing the mutiny. It must be noted that in 20th century most of these pro-British native rulers became patrons and financiers of communal-fascist organizations like Hindu Mahasabha, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the Muslim League. They provided sanctuaries to these anti-national organizations. Many-many of these kept on ruling free India; we saw the spectacle of the family members of the stooges enjoying power as chief ministers, ministers, Governors in an independent India. They continued enjoying the benefits of estates which were confiscated from the rebels and awarded to their families by the British.

The sovereign Republic of India shamed itself on the eve of independence and continues to do so by not remembering the 13 women sheroes [Author is using the term ‘shero/sheroes for female martyrs of the liberation War as according to the dictionaries word ‘hero’ means a “man who exhibits great bravery” which is not gender neutral and conveys the faulty wisdom that only man can be brave.] from Thana Bhawan, situated in Muzaffar Nagar district (now in western Uttar Pradesh about 130 kms from Delhi) belonging to different religions and Castes who hanged together or burnt alive for taking up arms against the repressive British rule. The rulers showed criminal indifference to the women martyrs namely, Asghari Begum, Asha Devi, Bhagwati Devi, Habeeba, Mam Kaur, Umda, Raj Kaur, Inder Kaur,  Bkhtawari, Jamila, Rahimi, Bhagwani and Beebee. All these names were available in the contemporary British gazetteers.

The Indian rulers did not bother to save as memorial the trees known as KALA AMB [black mango], these trees spread in almost every part of India, specially, North India, had nothing to do with fruit mango but were the trees where the British rulers hanged thousands of revolutionaries for joining the liberation War during 1857-1859. Most of these have been removed or withered away. In fact, not only rulers but we all joined hands in obliterating these symbols of great resistance and sacrifices against the White rule.

By forgetting the heritage of the War 1857; the heritage of religious unity and unity of all the struggling masses against loot and imperialism. The ruling classes, acting criminally, let the polity slip down to the present sorry state of affairs when India is devastated by the forces of religious bigotry, intolerance, Casteism and ruthlessness.

How heartless was independent India that we even did not try to locate the final resting places of heroes and sheroes of the War of 1857 like, Rani of Tulsipur, Zeenat Mahal, Azeemullah Khan, Nana Saheb, General Bakht Khan and many of their comrades who died in Nepal.

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Shamsul Islam is a retired professor of Delhi university.

Featured image is from Countercurrents

ASEAN Trying to Resolve the Situation in Myanmar

May 11th, 2021 by Vladimir Terehov

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On April 24 this year, in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, a special meeting of the presidents and heads of government of ASEAN member countries was held to discuss the latest developments in Myanmar, which itself is a member of this Association, uniting 10 countries in the Southeast Asian region.

The occasion for these high officials to add to their concerns about the problems in their own countries some external problems, was the high-profile international consequences of the events that took place in Myanmar on February 1 this year.

Let us briefly recap what this is about. Today’s Myanmar (formerly the “Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma”), rich in a variety of natural resources and now occupying a very important strategic position, is a very complex country. It is populated by about 100 ethnic and religious nationalities, often at odds with each other and with the central government. Armed clashes are not a rare thing.

It is equally important to recall that since the second half of the last century, the inaccessible mountainous regions of Myanmar were one of the main elements of the so-called “Golden Drug Corner,” which supplied opiates to the world markets on a huge scale. Currently, Myanmar’s Shan State (the main area of separatist anti-government armed struggle) is the leading supplier for methamphetamine markets.

The “Drug Factor” tends to be carefully circumvented by the Western media in commentary on recent events in Myanmar. Meanwhile, its significance in the “Great World Game” as a whole (at least of the last century and a half) still seems grossly underestimated. In particular, this is directly related to the Afghan issue.

In any case, it is the sum of these factors that explains why independent Myanmar has been led by the military up until the most recent period of its history. This alone made it possible to preserve the integrity of the country and carry out positive socio-economic transformations.

But the same circumstance has always been the main reason for the “West’s” (very conditional) negative assessments of the state system of Myanmar. This negativity was particularly harsh after the Myanmar military, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, once again went “behind the backs” of the country’s civilian leadership.

The most frequently cited reason for the events of February 1 is the result of the general elections held in November 2020. As a result, the National League for Democracy won a constitutional majority of seats in the country’s parliament. This jeopardizes the legal basis (still preserved in the current constitution) for the military’s de facto control of the situation in Myanmar.

It is important to note the fact that Aung San Suu Kyi, who until relatively recently was one of the main icons of the global “human rights” movement, heads the NLD. This latter has dramatically changed attitudes toward her since she became the de facto head of the civilian government and began to pursue a domestic political course not much different from Min Aung Hlai’s policies.

But after the military once again locked up Ms. Suu Kyi on February 1 (apparently simply because they doubted her ability to keep the situation in the country under control), the patented “human rights defenders” like Amnesty International, as well as their real puppeteers, went “off the rails”.

Although today, when Washington and Brussels (the unelected officials of the latter for some reason position themselves as the “voice of Europe”) are promoting propaganda hysteria about “hundreds of peaceful protesters killed by the military junta,” let us not lose sight of the very factor of simmering or quite active internal armed conflicts. For example, in late April it was reported that armed Karen (the third largest ethnic group in Myanmar) seized an army base on the border with Thailand.

Be that as it may, the prospect of another “humanitarian intervention” looms on the horizon. Potential participants could be a number of countries (perhaps all of them) that have recently conducted joint naval exercises La Perouse in the Bay of Bengal, the entire eastern coast of which is composed of Myanmar. Which, of course, would not go unanswered by the PRC.

But no one wants to see a new, extremely dangerous “hot spot” in the Indo-Pacific region, and the main players in the game here have recently been calling (directly or covertly) for ASEAN to intervene in the situation that is unfolding in Myanmar.

In particular, such a desire can be seen in the US-Japanese joint statement adopted after the April 16 talks in Washington between Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan and US President Joe Biden. The document refers to the “central role of ASEAN” in Southeast Asian affairs and, almost immediately thereafter, “strongly condemns military and police violence against the citizens of Myanmar”.

Note, however, an important feature of ASEAN, which fundamentally distinguishes this association from the EU. Unlike the latter, whose officials unceremoniously interfere in the affairs of all countries of the Union (and not only), the governing apparatus of ASEAN has so far avoided interfering in the internal affairs of member countries. In this regard, the initiative to hold a special summit of the Association on the situation in Myanmar, which was launched on March 19 by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, is unique. Apparently, her main motive was to avoid the worst-case scenarios in the region involving the world’s leading powers.

It is worth noting the media fuss (initiated by the same “West”) on the eve of the discussed event around such procedural issues as the format of the meeting and address to the incoming leader of the current military leadership of Myanmar, General Min Aung Hlaing. There were proposals not to invite a delegation from this country at all, arranging a kind of “visiting court” over its leadership.

But as you can see from the photos at Jakarta airport, Min Aung Hlaing, who arrived for the summit, was treated quite traditionally, decently and, importantly, with the WHO recommended precautions necessary in these dangerous times of coronavirus.

The special ASEAN summit lasted two hours, without the presence of the press and apparently in the usual ASEAN “family” format. That is, one member of the “family” (who found himself in a predicament), in the person of the same General Min Aung Hlaing, was given both grievances and advice. At the end of the meeting, only the president of Indonesia allowed himself to make some harsh remarks about the military leadership of Myanmar in public. Which the addressee most likely did not hear, much less respond to in any way.

In this connection, note that unlike today’s “right-wing” Pharisees, Asia has not lost what is commonly called conscience. How can Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte condemn the Myanmar military when he himself has to resort to means that do not fit in any way the “rules of etiquette” of “human rights activists” in the fight against disastrous domestic problems (especially in the drug trade).

The author would like to emphasize that Duterte received a mandate of trust of his own people during the general elections of 2016 to use similar means (previously tested by him when he was governor of a province of the country). In this act of democracy (without quotation marks) he did not resort to the services of “political technology” crooks. Which is the norm in countries of triumphant pharisaism.

The Jakarta summit resulted in a nine-point Statement, published on behalf of the ASEAN Secretariat. It seems noteworthy that only the last two paragraphs are devoted to the main reason for the event.

Commentators also drew attention to the absence of a demand in the Statement (spelled out in a preliminary draft document) for the current Myanmar leadership to immediately release all civilian political activists detained after the coup. This means that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will continue observing events in the country she recently led, on TV at her home (seating in a cozy armchair).

Apparently, General Min Aung Hlaing politely listened to all the friendly (and not so friendly) family advice and suggestions in Jakarta. But he will likely continue to act in accordance with his own answer to the traditional question of “what is good and what is bad” for his country.

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Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Featured image is from NEO

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***

Authorities should go after illegal loggers with financial charges like money laundering, Indonesian officials said last week at an online panel.

Officials from the Attorney General’s Office and the anti-money-laundering agency, known as the PPATK, were among those to endorse the approach.

“We have to take a financial approach, especially money laundering,” said R. Narendra Jatna, special assistant to the attorney general.

“We have to look at timber as a commodity — that makes trafficking in it different from ordinary crimes,” he added. “If we view it as a commodity, that means we can look at the corporations and even the organized criminal elements behind it.”

The panel, titled “Can the Indonesian Judicial System Punish the Timber Mafia?,” was moderated by Kaoem Telapak, an NGO that recently put out a report with a London-based NGO, the Environmental Investigation Agency, about how illegal loggers in the country were going largely unpunished.

Indonesia is home to part of the world’s third-largest rainforest, which stretches across the island of New Guinea, but it also has one of the world’s highest rates of deforestation.

Illegal logging remains rampant. Between 2015 and 2020, the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry handled 497 illegal logging cases, more than any other type of environmental crime and with each year seeing more cases than the next, Yazid Nurguda, the ministry’s director of criminal law enforcement, said during the panel.

The police, meanwhile, handled 272 illegal logging cases in 2020, up from 74 cases each in 2019 and 2018, but down from 575 in 2017 and 507 in 2016, according to Pipit Rismanto, head of the National Police’s “specific crimes” department.

“Previous convictions have not provided a deterrent effect,” Pipit said during the panel.

An illegal logging operation in Indonesia’s Central Kalimantan province. Image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.

Budi Saiful Haris, a senior analyst at the PPATK, spoke about how Indonesia’s 2010 anti-money-laundering law could be wielded against illegal loggers.

Instead of merely arresting smaller actors in the field, he said, investigators should target the masterminds behind illegal logging schemes.

“There are other actors who aren’t always apparent in the field, who can be revealed by looking at financial crimes,” he said.

While Indonesia’s forestry law was helpful domestically, the anti-money-laundering law could be especially useful in pursuing transnational elements of the trade in illegal timber, Narendra said.

“Reaching the ‘mafia’ outside Indonesia is very difficult,” he said. To address both the domestic and international elements of illegal logging requires taking an anti-money-laundering approach, he added.

Budi called for the police and forestry ministry to create protocols for identifying indications of money laundering in forestry crime cases.

He also called for law enforcers to create a target for a certain number of forestry crime cases to be handled this way.

Narendra also suggested that bribery of law enforcers in Indonesia — which ranked 102 out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2020 Corruption Perceptions Index — was an impediment to fighting illegal logging.

“It could be that in cases of illegal logging, there are bribes to officials, which could be classified as criminal acts of corruption or tax evasion,” he said.

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This story was reported by Mongabay’s Indonesia team and first published here on our Indonesian site on May 4, 2021.

Featured image: Logs at a sawmill in Indonesia. Image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.

Exposing Myanmar’s US-Backed Opposition

May 10th, 2021 by Brian Berletic

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***

The Western media claims Myanmar’s opposition represents the pro-democracy aspirations of the people, contrasting from what they claim is a violent military-led regime.

In reality, the government Myanmar’s military ousted from power in February was entirely the product of foreign interference – and in no way represented a “democratically elected” government.

In addition to that, the Western media has covered up for years the racist, genocidal nature of Aung San Suu Kyi and her support base – in yet another example of the US backing extremists in an attempt to divide and destroy yet another country – and in Myanmar’s case – to spite China, Myanmar’s largest trade pattern and infrastructure partner.

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Brian Berletic, formally known under the pen name “Tony Cartalucci” is a geopolitical researcher, writer, and video producer (YouTube hereOdysee here, and BitChute here) based in Bangkok, Thailand. He is a regular contributor to New Eastern Outlook and more recently, 21st Century Wire. You can support his work via Patreon here.

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***

Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo have been brazenly beating the war drums in the latest round of verbal aggression against China. They have escalated the federal Coalition government’s anti-China propaganda to a dangerous new level.

In his ANZAC Day message, Pezzullo invoked Cold War speeches of United States general Douglas MacArthur and US president and former general Dwight D Eisenhower.

“On this ANZAC Day, in the 70th year of our principal military alliance, let us remember the warnings of two American generals who had known war waged totally, and brutally: we must search always for the chance for peace amidst the curse of war, until we are faced with the only prudent, if sorrowful, course — to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight the nation’s wars.

“Let there not be doubt — war shakes confidence in a civilisation’s soul. Who could begrudge the sorrow of Europeans after the horror of the First World War? Yet, in their sorrow and their revulsion at the thought of another terrible bloodbath, they did not heed the drums of war which beat through the 1930s — until too late they once again took up arms against Nazism and Fascism.

“Today, as free nations again hear the beating drums and watch worryingly the militarisation of issues that we had, until recent years, thought unlikely to be catalysts for war, let us continue to search unceasingly for the chance for peace while bracing again, yet again, for the curse of war.

“By our resolve and our strength, by our preparedness of arms, and by our statecraft, let us get about reducing the likelihood of war — but not at the cost of our precious liberty. War might well be folly, but the greater folly is to wish away the curse by refusing to give it thought and attention, as if in so doing, war might leave us be, forgetting us perhaps.”

‘Prepared for action’

While Pezzullo did not name China in his overblown speech, the target of his war-drum beating was made explicit by Dutton.

He said that Australia was already under cyber attack and that a war with China over Taiwan cannot be discounted. He added that the armed forces were “prepared for action” and the leaked speech to special forces troops by then-special forces commander Major-General Adam Findlay from April 2020 appears to confirm this war footing.

He claimed that “everyday Australians” were with the government against China’s aggression because “they know that what we are saying is factually based”.

These two war drummer would have the public think that this is some heroic defence of democratic values in response to some recent challenge from China. However, the truth is that the US and Australia have been building up readiness for war against China for years.

New arms race

From the “pivot to Asia” under the Barack Obama administration, to the Force Posture Agreement, Australia has been complicit in a major military build-up against China. The US shifted 60% of its navy to the Pacific (an increase of 10%), US marines were based in Darwin and US military aircraft were given access to Australian bases in the Northern Territory.

But there was also the development of a new aggressive military doctrine aimed at China, as former US army captain John Ford noted in a 2017 article in The Diplomat where he argued that the pivot was a provocation to China.

“Emblematic of this mistake was the roll-out of the Air-Sea Battle doctrine. First outlined in a then-classified memo in 2009, ASB became official doctrine in 2010. From the beginning, it was an effort to develop an operational doctrine for a possible military confrontation with China and then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates openly discussed the need to counter China’s growing military capabilities.

“The signal received in Beijing was the United States had hostile intentions toward China and was trying to contain it militarily. The result was that the entire pivot was seen by Beijing as part of a broader effort to encircle China.”

Essentially, the US (with Australia’s support under Coalition and Labor governments) has been working to bolster its military encirclement of China and preserve its imperialist military dominance.

Military spending spree

As part of the imperialist anti-China military build up, the federal government is on a $270 billion military spending spree which is great business for major arms manufacturers. Investigative reports published by Michael West Media have exposed the rapacious padding and consistent blow-outs of military contracts.

“Australian governments and their defence leaders, with help from lobbyists, choose immensely complex, overpriced and overmanned weaponry,” wrote Brian Toohey in one of these articles.

“With the blow-out in the budget expected to hit nearly $1 trillion by 2023-24 as a result of the pandemic, one would think the Federal Government would crack down on wasteful spending. But when it comes to defence spending, too much is never enough.

“Budget papers show defence funding will grow by a staggering 9.1% in real terms to $42.7 billion this current financial year. But much of the extra money will be wasted — yet again.

“There’s the official cost to build nine Hunter class frigates, which has gone from $30 billion in 2016 to $45.6 billion in 2020.

“Then there’s the army’s new Infantry Fighting Vehicles, estimated to cost a ‘mind-boggling’ $18–27 billion. The mid-point estimate for the cost of each vehicle is $50 million.

“Then there’s the sustainment (running) costs for the Super Hornet and the Growler jets — a scandalous $100,000 per hour. This compares to $15,000 an hour for the older Hornets which still perform well.

“But taking the cake is the planned build of 12 ludicrously expensive Attack class submarines – a program that is a financial and capability disaster. The cost has already gone from $50 billion in 2016 to $90 billion.”

ASPI and the arms industry

Marcus Reubenstein on April 3 reported on the government’s announcement that it would spend a further billion dollars on acquiring new missiles. He also noted that the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), which played a major role in both promoting arms spending and the anti-China campaign, also had major sponsorship from the arms industry.

“Since ASPI’s inception it has received sponsorship from 12 manufacturers of weapons and weapons systems. Over that period, they have been awarded 9423 Defence Department contracts with a total value of $51.2 billion.”

Perhaps because of this relationship, ASPI “estimates” that Australia will spend $100 billion over the next 20 years buying missiles and guided weapons!

The US-Australia war alliance and the corrupt links between government and the arms industry are taking us ever closer to a horrific imperialist war. It will also incite more anti-Asian racism. Racism and a vote-buying budget are shaping up as core elements of Scott Morrison’s re-election bid.

For all these reasons, the trade union movement and all progressive social movements must urgently resist the reactionary drive to war with China.

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Peter Boyle is a member of the Socialist Alliance National Executive.

Featured image: Defence Minister Peter Dutton. Image: Viv Miley/Green Left

India Will be Front-line State in Myanmar Civil War

May 7th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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How some animals get to sense when earthquakes are imminent remains a mystery. Just before the great Asian tsunami on December 26, 2004, elephants in Sri Lanka moved to high ground before the giant waves struck; at Galle, dogs refused to take morning walk with their masters on the beach.

Conceivably, therefore, the decision by the Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd to abandon their highly lucrative Myanmar container terminal project and write down the investment falls in the same league. For, corporate houses are also known to possess animal instincts — they pick up subtle sounds or vibrations in the earth and anticipate impending disasters.

Their unusual animal behaviour anticipates any sudden surge of time and causation in politics.  The Adani group’s “animal behaviour” comes in the backdrop of an incremental shift in the Indian government’s attitude toward Myanmar — a gravitation toward the western camp in its quintessentially anti-China (“Quad”) project.

Diehard neocons and delusional leftwingers aside, it was apparent to outsiders right from the outset that the turmoil in Myanmar had all the hallmarks of a “colour revolution”. The cacophony rose to a high pitch by end-March, culminating in the massacre of hundreds of protestors in a military crackdown.

That was a turning point. The chorus — BBC, Radio Free Asia, western NGOs promoting democracy and human rights — soon began receding and the locus shifted from the streets to the world capitals with a massive diplomatic campaign for international intervention. A UN Security Council endorsement of intervention would have been ideal.

India tried to get Russia and China to agree to an intrusive approach, but a consensus was elusive. The memories of western intervention in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya haunt Moscow and Beijing. Besides, it is precedent-setting for Belarus or Hong Kong, for example. The geopolitical dimension began surging.

But the operative part hidden from view concentrated on the creation of a “government-in-exile” (a National Unity Government.) Alongside, Britain’s MI6 sought to bring together Myanmar’s main ethnic separatist guerrilla groups, encouraging them to take advantage of the chaos to open a second front.

Indeed, some degree of proximity has since developed between the Burman protesters in Yangon and Mandalay on one side and the non-Burman minority ethnic groups on the other side. Despite a history of mutual antipathy, they have a convergence today to bleed the military. It is an improbable coalition of Buddhists and Christians, but as an American analyst cautiously assesses, it is doable: 

“Today, the collective celebration of Christian, Muslim, and other non-Buddhist religious expression and participation in the movement itself hopefully foreshadows a more inclusive sense of nationalism. If nurtured and institutionalized by the appointed National Unity Government, this inclusive national identity could contribute to a democratic state where diversity is honoured and celebrated, and those of non-Buddhist faiths do not face the same degree of institutional and social discrimination they have in the past.

“This will require significant, likely generational, transformation of state, religious, and cultural institutions and processes that have historically privileged Bamar Buddhists.” (Beyond the Coup in Myanmar: Don’t Ignore the Religious Dimensions, by Susan Hayward, Harvard Law School)

At any rate, by mid-April, the first major armed attack on the military took place by the Karen National Union, Myanmar’s oldest rebel group (which was originally created by the British colonial power as its proxy.) Such attacks have since become commonplace. 

Today, the so-called National Unity Government  announced its intention to establish a Federal Union Army — a military force of defectors from the security forces, rebel ethnic groups and volunteers. This would be a watershed transforming the anti-military agitation to an armed confrontation with the military. Myanmar is entering the crucial stage where Syria stood in 2011. 

The parallels with Syria are striking — “Arab Spring” protests (March-July 2011) being crushed by the Syrian government, which was seized as alibi for large-scale western intervention by the US and its allies that eventually got hijacked by extremist groups, especially Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and triggered in turn Russian intervention in defence of the Assad government. 

Of course, one cardinal difference is that the neighbouring countries do not want to get involved in a civil war in Myanmar. To be sure, in such a scenario, any shift in the Indian policy towards bandwagoning with the western project is fraught with serious consequences.

The startling news today from Hakha, the capital of Chin State, close to the border with India, rings a warning bell for the north-eastern states, which have ethnic and religious affinity with the rebel groups across the border. The Chin state has been noted for stability and peace but today’s incidents in the nature of “hit-and-run” attacks resulted in the death of 9 soldiers. This seems a dress rehearsal. 

Over 85% of the population in the Chin state consists of Christians (numbering over half a million.) The Chin state shares border with six districts of Mizoram. Over 87% of Mizoram population are Christian and there have been reports of people from Myanmar crossing over. Most refugees coming in from Chin are from Lai, Tedim-Zomi, Luse, Hualngo and Natu tribes, which share close links with the Mizos of Mizoram, as well as the Kuki-Zomis of Manipur.

Over the decades, many residents of the Chin state have migrated to Mizoram too. (Why Mizoram sees Myanmar refugees as ‘family’, The Print, March 24, 2021) India and Myanmar share an unfenced border of 1643 kilometres passing through Arunachal Pradesh (520 km), Nagaland (215 km), Manipur (398 km), and Mizoram (510 km). The corresponding states in Myanmar include Kachin, Sagaing and Chin. 

The situation is almost identical to the open Pakistan-Afghanistan border region. Like the Pashtun tribes straddling the Af-Pak border, the Indian tribes such as the Mizos, Kukis, Nagas and Zomis also are split into smaller tribes sharing close ties across the border. If Myanmar becomes a failed state, India will have fallouts.

The tangled mountains and tropical jungles also makes this classic guerrilla country. In the event of a civil war in the coming months and rupture of Myanmar’s unity, India will get sucked into the chaos. Thailand and India are the only two plausible sanctuaries for the MI6 and CIA to navigate civil war conditions in Myanmar — and, Thailand enjoys friendly relations with China. 

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar not less than three times in as many months since the military takeover in Myanmar. To be sure, India’s cooperation is crucial for the success of the Anglo-American enterprise in Myanmar.

Myanmar figured prominently at the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in London on May 3-5. Jaishankar travelled to London and met with Blinken. Neither side divulged details, but a Deutsche-Welle report flagged that “China was at the top of the agenda as the G7 foreign ministers discussed a range of human rights issues. Addressing the Myanmar coup and Russian aggression was also on the docket.”

It added that the G7 ministers watched a video from Myanmar’s National Unity Government  to “update the ministers with the current situation on the ground.” The joint communique issued after the London meeting devotes much attention to Myanmar (paras 21-24). It expresses “solidarity” with the National Unity Government and issues call for comprehensive sanctions against the Myanmar military, including an arms embargo. 

The birth pangs of insurgencies are never open to public view, as intelligence agencies get the actors into play. The Myanmar situation has reached that point. This is the first big bash of post-Brexit UK (“Global Britain”) on the world stage. As so often in modern history, London will lead from the rear.

The Adani group’s decision to wind up business in Myanmar is well-timed. The influential corporate house probably had an animal instinct of the outcome of the G7 meet in London.

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Featured image: Hakha Town in Myanmar’s Chin State bordering Mizoram was the scene of attacks on the military by rebel fighters on May 5, 2021 (Source: Indian Punchline)

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***

In a surprise, if not shock, judgment that will infuriate locals but may placate neighboring Japanese, a South Korean court on Wednesday rejected a compensation suit filed by 20 former “comfort women” against Tokyo.

The same court had earlier reached the opposite judgment in a near-identical case in January.

Relations between the two neighbors, long troubled by historical issues and a dispute over the sovereignty of a pair of islets in the sea between them, look set to remain dire. Japan’s decision last week to release irradiated water from its crippled Fukushima nuclear reactor into the Pacific has become the latest bone in an endless series of contentions.

Meanwhile, and regardless of local court decisions, activists and a high-profile former comfort woman are lobbying to resolve the vexed and emotive issue of the wartime brothels once and for all – by placing it before the impartial eyes of the UN’s International Court of Justice.

But further complicating the issue, both Seoul and Tokyo are competing to curry favor with Washington, which seeks a trilateral united front in East Asia against a rising China. Given this, one related party suggested to Asia Times that Seoul may, in order to accommodate Washington’s wishes, have exerted leverage on the court to ameliorate its stance against Japan.

Surprise decision

Seoul District Court Wednesday cited the principle of “sovereign immunity”, an international legal protocol that grants a country protection against civil suits filed in foreign courts.

The judges in Wednesday’s case appeared to have an eye on diplomacy as well as justice, saying: “When we recognize exemptions of sovereign immunity, diplomatic clashes will inevitably ensue.”

The court cited court cases after World War II that were rejected on the principle. In 2012, the UN’s International Court of Justice overturned Italy’s seizure of German diplomatic assets. Those assets had been taken in order to remunerate wartime Italian forced laborers.

Wednesday’s decision was surprising because the same Seoul court – albeit, with a different panel of judges – had reached an opposite conclusion in January in an almost identical case bought by 12 former comfort women, when it granted them each 100 million won (US$89,600) in damages to be paid by Tokyo.

Captured comfort women in Myitkyina on August 14 in 1944.jpg

Comfort women (comfort girls) captured by U.S. Army, August 14 1944, Myitkyina. (Public Domain)

That judgment had referred to the precedent set by domestic Italian courts in the above case rather than the final outcome of the case at the ICJ. The Seoul court had also, at the time, made the point that “systematic crimes against humanity” superseded legalities.

Moreover, the same court Wednesday appeared to slightly dilute its decision in the January case, stating that Japan does not have to pay the plaintiffs’ legal fees due to international diplomatic laws, Yonhap news agency reported. That reversed its earlier decision, in which it had called for Tokyo to foot those bills in addition to paying damages.

Tokyo had refused to attend either court and has not made any payments. It characterized the January judgment, as well as yet another judgment by a different South Korean court in 2018 that had found on behalf of Korean forced laborers and seized Japanese corporate assets, as breaches of international law.

Tokyo also accuses Seoul of unilaterally overturning a deal on comfort women reached in 2015 between the two capitals under which Japan made a statement of apology and paid compensation.

While a majority of then-living comfort women accepted the Japanese monies, a vocal minority refused, angrily insisting they had not been consulted about the deal and calling Japan’s apology insincere.

Seoul’s Moon Jae-in administration has disowned the agreement, made under its predecessor administration, and frozen the funds.

Video: Farm Laws in India

May 5th, 2021 by Colin Todhunter

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“Colin Todhunter at his best: this is graphic, a detailed horror tale in the making for India, an exposé on what is planned, via the farm laws, to hand over Indian sovereignty and food security to big business. There will come a time pretty soon – (not something out there but imminent, unfolding even now), when we will pay the Cargill’s, Ambani’s, Bill Gates, Walmarts – in the absence of national buffer food stocks (an agri policy change to cash crops,  the end to small-scale  farmers, pushed aside by contract farming and GM crops) – we will pay them to send us food and finance borrowing from international markets to do it.” – Aruna Rodrigues

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***

As tensions with China continue to grow, Japan is making moves to join the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance. This week, Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, told The Sydney Morning Herald he was “optimistic” about his country coming on board.

[I] would like to see this idea become reality in the near future.

This comes as New Zealand voices its concerns over using the Five Eyes process to pressure China.

What is this spy alliance? And what are the benefits and risks to bringing Japan on board?

What is the Five Eyes?

Beginning as an intelligence exchange agreement between the United States and United Kingdom in 1943, it formally became the UKUSA Agreement in 1946. The agreement then extended to Canada in 1948, and Australia and New Zealand in 1956.

This long-running collaboration has been particularly useful for sharing signals intelligence, or intelligence gathered from communications and information systems. The group’s focus has shifted over time, from targeting the USSR during the Cold War, to Islamist terrorism after the September 11 attacks in 2001, to the rising challenge from China today.

Japan’s intelligence infrastructure

There is a significant intelligence tradition in Japan. After the Meiji Restoration of the 19th century, the imperial Japanese army and navy and Ministry of Foreign Affairs developed extensive intelligence networks. These aided the rise of the Japanese empire in its wars against China, Russia and eventually the Western allies in the second world war.

After the war, Japan’s intelligence services were revamped under American supervision. Japan has since been an important base of operations for US intelligence operations in Asia, particularly by military intelligence, the CIA and the National Security Agency.

The Japanese intelligence community now comprises a range of services, including the Ministry of Defense’s Directorate for Signals Intelligence, which provides expertise in regional signals intelligence. Given Japan’s proximity to China, North Korea, and Russia, Japan may well be an attractive addition to the Five Eyes alliance.

There is also a precedence for formal intelligence sharing with the West. As well as its long-running collaboration with the US, an Information Security Agreement was signed between Australia and Japan in 2012. At the end of 2016, the US, Japan and Australia signed a similar trilateral agreement deepening the extent of covert security cooperation.

Japan’s close relationship to the US is seen in Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s visit last week to the US, the first foreign leader to be officially hosted by President Joe Biden. The talks in Washington focused heavily on China.

Previous reluctance to expand the group

While the Five Eyes group has often cooperated with the intelligence services of Japan on an ad hoc basis — as well as those of France, Germany and Israel — there has so far been reluctance among the Five Eyes members to formally broaden the alliance.

The US especially has had doubts in the past about the security and reliability of the Japanese intelligence community. In particular, this is due to concerns over its relative lack of overseas experience.

In 2013, the Abe government passed a controversial Designated State Secrets Law to reduce these vulnerabilities and present Japan as a more valuable security partner. The ensuing revamp of the intelligence services, under firmer central direction of a National Security Council, has reformed Japan’s capabilities to some extent.

But further complicating matters, New Zealand has now shown its hesitancy about using Five Eyes to pressure China. This threatens to undermine the unity and stability of the alliance, even raising the prospect of New Zealand leaving Five Eyes altogether.

What about China?

Japan’s relationship with China — its neighbour and main trading partner — could potentially be a stumbling block. This relationship was managed fairly successfully under the Abe government, where the mutual benefits of trade and investment were prioritised.

This has largely continued under Suga, but more hawkish members of the government are starting to push a tougher line against China.

With the ongoing territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands, and more assertive demonstrations of force by the People’s Liberation Army, relations between China and Japan have become much frostier. As Japan is on the “frontline” with China, becoming a Five Eyes member has the potential to improve its strategic position via stronger support from its alliance partners.

Leadership change in Japan?

The best prospect for Japan joining Five Eyes probably lies with cabinet minister Taro Kono. He is the minister for administrative reform, responsible for supervising Japan’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout. In his previous tenure as defence minister, Kono was enthusiastically in favour of Japan joining Five Eyes.

The energetic, media-savvy and ambitious Kono is widely favoured to replace Suga as prime minister if he does not survive a vote for leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September. An election for the lower house of the Diet (Japan’s parliament) also must be held by October.

Security environment could make the decision

A more threatening security environment overall may hasten the push towards a “Six Eyes” anyway.

A cyber attack on the Australian parliament in 2019 was implicitly blamed on China, while the US counterintelligence establishment is still reeling from the consequences of the massive Russian SolarWinds cyber attack and Moscow’s interference in the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections.

This week, the Tokyo Metropolitan Police have blamed the People’s Liberation Army for organising hundreds of cyber attacks on Japanese companies, universities and government departments, including Japan’s space agency JAXA. This is certain to harden opinion against China.

If all members agree, especially with encouragement from the US, it would be fairly straightforward for Japan to formally join the Five Eyes. If the regional security environment continues to deteriorate, the declaration of a Six Eyes alliance incorporating Japan would be a clear diplomatic signal of a determination to confront China in intelligence and espionage.

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 is Professor, Faculty of International Studies, Kyoritsu Women’s University.

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An Australian military commander warned of the “high likelihood” of conflict with China in a confidential briefing last year, an Australian newspaper reported on Tuesday, with the timing of the leaked remarks adding fuel to growing discussion about the risk of armed confrontation with Beijing over Taiwan.

Major General Adam Findlay told Australian special forces in a private briefing last April to prepare for the possibility of war with China, describing the country’s largest trading partner as the biggest threat to the region, The Sydney Morning Herald reported.

Findlay, who served as Special Operations Commander in the Australian Army before stepping down last year, said China had been competing with Australia in the “grey zone” to achieve its objectives without military force but that could change despite Canberra’s efforts to avoid conflict, according to the newspaper, which cited multiple unnamed sources.

“Grey zone” warfare describes offensive actions such as cyberattacks, intelligence-gathering and trade sanctions that fall short of military action.

The report on Findlay’s comments comes after two senior government figures raised the possibility of Australia becoming embroiled in a regional military conflict.

Read the full article here.

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The Quad is against China in all respects, especially when it comes to military and economic affairs. Canberra’s canceling of Victoria’s two BRI agreements is therefore consistent with this unstated but increasingly obvious strategy.

The Australian federal government recently canceled two Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) deals that the state of Victoria signed with China in 2018 and 2019 as part of its new policy enabling the central authorities to overrule international agreements clinched by lower-level administrative entities. China vowed to respond to this extremely unfriendly move which further worsens their bilateral relations after several years of steady decline due to Australia’s unprovoked actions against the People’s Republic. Examples of the latter prominently include politically meddling in Hong Kong and promoting harmful conspiratorial claims about COVID-19’s origins.

The latest developments amount to a serious escalation in the ongoing Hybrid War on BRI, which Australia arguably committed at its American ally’s behest. The two nations are part of the emerging Quad military bloc in what both countries regard as the “Indo-Pacific”. Plenty of observers have voiced concern that this growing network is aimed at containing China, which is seemingly proven by what just happened. The Quad is against China in all respects, especially when it comes to military and economic affairs. Canberra’s canceling of Victoria’s two BRI agreements is therefore consistent with this unstated but increasingly obvious strategy.

What’s even more disturbing about all of this is that Australia voluntarily joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) last November alongside China and over a dozen other regional nations. The expectation among many, however naive in hindsight, was that Australia would moderate its approach towards China and perhaps enter into a long-overdue rapprochement with its top trade partner. Alas, that doesn’t seem to have much chance of happening now that the country canceled those two BRI deals which were supposed to serve as flagship projects of cooperation between them heralding in a new era of economic cooperation.

American strategists must be delighted that they succeeded in convincing their junior Australian partners to sacrifice their own economic interests out of political solidarity with Washington, albeit on the pretext of so-called “national interests”. Regarding that flimsy justification, which has recently been bandied about with abandon in Australia, it’s vague enough to be used as a pretext for anything actually. The appeal to “national interests” also automatically attracts the support of nationalist elements in society who are programmed to positively respond to anything that the authorities say is in advance of that concept.

Objectively speaking, it’s actually against Australia’s national interests to cancel its BRI deals. For starters, they were agreed to by two internationally recognized governments, albeit Victoria’s being a state one and not federal. This means that abruptly canceling them on a vague pretext harms Australia’s reputation by making it appear unreliable, especially since many suspect that it did so to please its American ally. Secondly, the federal government could have at least in theory attempted to renegotiate parts of these deals if it really had a problem with them instead of just scrapping both of those pacts entirely. This hints at its ulterior motives.

It’s understandable that some countries have complex relations between their state and central governments, especially those nations that practice Western forms of democracy and whose concept of “national interests” could possibly change every few years after the next election. Nevertheless, domestic disputes between administrative entities mustn’t result in international implications like what just happened in terms of greatly harming Chinese-Australian relations. The very fact that this occurred in a country that proudly presents itself as a politically stable model for others proves just how destabilizing democratic systems can sometimes be.

The Australian people must realize that their understanding of “national interests” is being manipulated by some of their authorities and the latter’s foreign allies in America as part of the Hybrid War on BRI, which is a major component of the larger Hybrid War on China. It’s a pity that their objective economic interests are being sacrificed as part of this aggressive scheme. The only ones who will suffer are those same Australian people, many of whom had high hopes about taking their countries’ promising economic ties with China to the next level through BRI. It can only be hoped that their authorities regain their senses and reverse this latest move.

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This article was originally published on OneWorld.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

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***

The Philippine National Police (PNP) said it has yet to finalize protocols in the use of body cameras during operations due to privacy concerns. 

At a press briefing on Monday, May 3, Directorate for Logistics director Police Major General Angelito Casimiro said the PNP Directorate for Operations is still finalizing procedures on the use of body cameras because privacy concerns could pose as a problem when a captured video is presented in court.

“That is the challenge for now, especially privacy issues and on how it is being used because we might be violating some privacy of people once we present the video to the court,” Casimiro said.

The use of body cameras, or body cams, was proposed to ensure transparency in the operations of policemen given various instances when they were accused of planting evidence, killing innocent individuals, or conducting other illegal acts during operations.

Casimiro said the body cams have been distributed to police stations in the National Capital Region, which are just waiting for the protocols from the national headquarters.

Senator Panfilo Lacson, a former PNP chief, said concerns about privacy are misplaced.

“The policeman committing an abuse in the exercise of his duties as well as the crime offender cannot use the ‘right to privacy’ as their defense since either of them will fail the test,” Lacson said.

Delayed body cams

PNP spokesperson Brigadier General Ronaldo Olay told Rappler that the arrival of the body cams was not delayed, just “right on time.” They’re being tested during the vaccination drives of the police, he said.

Olay said the PNP plans to fully implement their use as soon as possible, but he did not give a specific date.

As early as October 2020, PNP said they will start rolling out the body cams to around 2,600 cops in Metro Manila. The calls for the use of body cams started after the murder of 17-year-old Kian Delos Santos by policemen in 2017.

But almost 5 PNP chiefs since 2016, body cams are yet to be used by policemen. The procurement of the cameras was first delayed in 2017 because the PNP said there was no budget allocated for the program.

It was once again delayed in 2018 after a disqualified bidder said that 3 policemen allegedly asked him P5 million (around $104,000) so he could get the deal.

In March, the Supreme Court en banc said it was considering requiring cops to wear body cams when serving warrants to address the growing issue of alleged abuse during operations.

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Environmental activists and local residents have been waging a long-running campaign against a toxic rare-earths refinery in Malaysia run by Lynas Rare Earths, an Australian corporation.

They breathed a cautious sigh of relief when it was announced that Lynas’ application for a permanent toxic and radioactive waste dump in a rainforest reserve was rejected in an Environment Impact Assessment (EIA).

The announcement came in the form of a “not approved” entry on the environment department’s website listing EIAs made on April 28.

Lynas rushed to the media with a claim that this was just a minor delay, based on a technicality, which will be fixed with the submission of new documents.

The company said:

“Lynas is working together with the relevant Malaysian Federal and Pahang State governments to provide the information requested by the DOE [Department Of Environment]. Because the initial 12 week period has expired, the DOE has stated on its website that the EIA is rejected. Once the information is provided, Lynas has been advised by the DOE that the assessment of the EIA will resume.”

Lee Tan is an environmental activist who has played a major role — along with Australian activists — supporting the strong objections from residents living in Kuantan, a city close to the Lynas refinery. Tan told Green Left this was probably just company spin.

“For now, we have managed to stop Lynas from dumping its toxic radioactive waste in Kuantan’s water catchment. However, for as long as the radioactive waste remains in Malaysia, we cannot let our guard down,” she said.

“The DOE website clearly states that Lynas’ EIA for the permanent waste dump proposal for Bukit Ketam has been rejected and now Lynas is spinning a new story, I guess to prevent its stock value from crashing.

“Under Lynas’ licence condition from 2018, the government should stop its operation to stop more toxic radioactive waste from being piled up further. However, it might be wishful thinking — albeit a public and environmental health blessing — if the government actually enforces the law on Lynas.”

Earlier this year, Tan explained in an interview with GL that Lynas was seeking to “carve out one of the last remnants of a pristine rainforest for a shallow radioactive waste dump, lined with only a 2 millimetre-thin, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) plastic sheet”.

“Rain, water intrusions, landslides and many other factors will guarantee that the radioactive materials, heavy metals and other toxic material will not be stopped from leaking out.”

Tan also said there is practically no safe level of exposure to radiation, particularly to elements like thorium and uranium, which were present in the mountain of waste that Lynas has piled up next to its refinery.

“They might be low-level in terms of radioactivity, but in decaying have very high daughter isotopes like radium, radon, polonium and so forth. Because they have long half-lives, they are radioactive for a long time — billions of years.

“As they are practically forever hazardous, the danger comes from ionising radiation when the radioactive particles enter living cells — plant, animal or human. This takes place when they decay in the surviving cells damaging the DNA — the building blocks of our cells — if the dose is high enough. This is can be a cumulative process over a lifetime and can even be passed down to future generations.”

Tan said the proposed waste dump is “in a forest on Bukit Ketam, a hill that is a catchment for two rivers. Sungai Ara joins Sungai Riau and that flows into the Kuantan River and to the South China Sea. Along the way there are two water treatment plants for water supply drawn from this river system.”

The city of Kuantan uses that river for drinking water, so 90% of the city’s population will be drinking water that could be contaminated with toxic elements from the proposed Lynas waste dump.

Meena Raman, an environmental lawyer and the president of Sahabat Alam Malaysia (SAM — Friends of the Earth Malaysia) told GL that SAM welcomes the DOE’s decision.

“One of the main legal points we have been raising is that under the Environmental Quality Act 1974 of Malaysia, the Director General (DG) cannot approve an EIA which violates an existing local plan for the area, which is required under the planning law in this country,” Raman said.

“As noted in the EIA, according to the Kuantan Local Plan (KLP) 2035, the Bukit Kuantan Forest Reserve is considered a Class I ESA (Environmentally Sensitive Area) of cultural value; therefore, no form of development or activities, other than low-impact recreational, research or educational activities are allowed in the area.

“The State government may have agreed for the project site to be degazetted as a forest reserve for the development of the PDF [facility], but unless the KLP 2035 is amended … [it] continues to be the relevant plan, and the DG cannot be considering a future local plan which is non-existent.

“In the EIA, a letter from the Kuantan Municipal Council has been produced, dated December 22, 2020, which states that the change in land use zoning will be taken into account in the revision of the KLP 2035.

“It is presumptuous to assume that the KLP will be amended without objections, or that the objections can be ignored, in the public consultations process.

“The Court of Appeal has made clear that any deviation from a structure plan (and in our case, a local plan) must be for good reason and must be explained and the reasons provided for doing so.

“Hence, the authorities can be challenged for departing from the KLP 2035 which stipulates the Bukit Kuantan Forest Reserve as Class 1 ESA.

“In any event, as we have pointed out before, the Director General’s decision under Sect 34A(4)(a) of the Environmental Quality Act relates to an existing development plan and not a future plan that has not come into effect.

“Lynas could appeal the decision of the DG under the EQA but our view is that the DG cannot violate the law. Hence, the chance of Lynas succeeding is rather slim.”

Sharan Raj, who heads up environmental campaigns for the Socialist Party of Malaysia (PSM), told GL: “Lynas should not be allowed to continuously operate and pile up radioactive waste without a permanent waste disposal solution.

“As the rare-earth ore was mined in Australia, then shipped to the refinery in Kuantan, the Malaysian government should initiate talks with Australia about taking back and dealing with the radioactive waste safely.”

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Featured image: Anti-Lynas protest at the company’s Annual General Meeting in Sydney, November, 2013. Photo: Peter Boyle

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He may have had short tusks, but at nearly 3 meters (10 feet) tall, Revatha was the dominant bull in his home range of  Kalawewa in Sri Lanka’s North Central province.

Other bull elephants that challenged him for dominance found themselves no match for his might; some even died in their ground-rumbling jousts with Revatha.

On March 9, Revatha, aged 45, was killed. But it wasn’t another elephant that dealt the fatal blow. It was an electric fence that had been set up illegally around a cornfield.

Electric fences are commonly deployed across Sri Lanka; the country has the highest density of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) and a correspondingly high rate of human-elephant conflict (HEC). Wildlife-deterring electric fences are meant to stun, not kill, an animal, much less an elephant. But this one, like many in Sri Lanka was wired up directly, and illegally, to the overhead power line, said Sumith Pilapitiya, a former head of the Department of Wildlife Conservation (DWC). When Revatha brushed up against it, it would have been like grabbing onto a live wire strung between pylons, he added.

Revatha wasn’t the only one. The same week he died, four other elephants were electrocuted to death in the same region of North Central.

“All of them are fully grown males that would be carrying strong genes,” Chandana Jayasinghe, the wildlife veterinary surgeon who conducted Revatha’s post-mortem exam, told Mongabay.

Revatha was one of five elephants killed by electrocution in the space of a week in North Central province. Image courtesy of Mahinda Prabath.

Surging trend

In the first three months of 2021 alone, 100 elephants were killed across Sri Lanka, 21 of them from electrocution, according to the Department of Wildlife Conservation (DWC). Eighteen died from eating explosive-packed bait known as hakka patas or “jaw exploders,” and 12 were shot dead. The cause of death for the remaining elephants wasn’t immediately known.

Annually, nearly 400 elephants and 50 people are killed in HEC incidents in Sri Lanka. But while hakka patas and shootings are typically the main cause of unnatural elephant deaths, the surge in electrocutions so far this year has led to calls to better regulate electric fences.

Prithiviraj Fernando from the Centre for Conservation and Research (CCRSL) called for the registration of private electric fences and conducting an awareness campaign that such fences are just as deadly to people as to animals.

According to the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL), most human deaths due to electrocution in the country — 45 out of 103 in 2019 — occur when people attempt to rig up electric fences straight to power lines to keep wildlife out of their farms.

M.K. Jayatissa, head of the Progressive Farmers Federation of Kaudulla in North Central province, told Mongabay that farmers do this because they can’t afford to lose their crops to raiding herds of elephants and other wildlife.

“But when an elephant dies of electrocution, it is a sad moment for farmers and they themselves weep and feel guilty about what they have done,” Jayatissa said.

‘High risk’ of death

The spread of agriculture into elephant habitat means the conflict between human and animal will only intensify, Manori Gunawardena, a wildlife scientist and country representative for the U.K.-based Born Free Foundation, told Mongabay.

“A bull elephant with a home range in a human modified fragmented landscape runs a high risk of HEC-related death,” Gunawardena said. “They navigate and turn increasingly hostile on home ground while adult bull elephants in these mixed landscapes raid crops.

“This tusker too, like many other adult bull elephants residing outside protected areas, faced this risk,” Gunawardena said of Revatha.

Revatha stood nearly 3 meters (10 feet) tall. While his tusks were short, their position was thought to give him an edge in fights with other males for territorial dominance. Image courtesy of Rajiv Welikala.

Seeking solutions

A solution to preventing crop-raiding by elephants is community-based seasonal electric fencing, according to the CCRSL. These are managed by a community rather than individual farmers, and pilot projects carried out by in several villages have been successful, according to the CCRSL.

A newly crafted national action plan for mitigating human-elephant conflict was presented to Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in December 2020. It recommends community-based fencing to protect villages and crops and to ensure villagers and farmers have access to standardized equipment that are safe and effective.

Fernando said electric fences are not cheap; lower-cost ones tend to be less effective. To be successful, community-based electric fencing would therefore need to be implemented through government agencies such as divisional secretariats and the Agrarian Services Department in a planned manner to find a lasting solution, he said.

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Featured image: Revatha, the dominant male in the Kalawewa herd in North Central province, Sri Lanka, Revatha sired many of this range’s young elephants. Image courtesy of Rajiv Welikala.

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As India is being devastated by COVID-19 cases that have now passed a daily rate of 400,000, affluent and callous Australia has taken the decision to suspend all flights coming into the country till mid-month.  The decision was reached by the Morrison government with the blessing of the State Premiers and the Labor opposition.

Not happy with banning flights from India, the Morrison government promises to be savage in punishing returnees who find ways to circumvent the ban (for instance, by travelling via a third country).  Citizens who breach the travel ban can face up to five years’ imprisonment and fines up to AU$66,000.  “We have taken drastic action to keep Australians safe,” explained the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.  The situation in India was “serious”; the decision had only been reached after considering the medical advice. 

According to a statement from Health Minister Greg Hunt, it was “critical the integrity of the Australian public health and quarantine systems is protected and the number of COVID-19 cases in quarantine is reduced to a manageable level.”

The decision fails to carry any weight.  It did not take long for more alert medical practitioners to wonder why the approach to India was being so selectively severe.  Health commentator and GP Vyom Sharma thought the decision “incredibly disproportionate to the threat that it posed”.  Sharma is certainly correct on this score in terms of international law, which requires the least restrictive or least intrusive way of protecting citizens. 

Then there was the issue about the previous policies Canberra had adopted to countries suffering from galloping COVID-19 figures.  A baffled Sharma wondered, “Why is it that India has copped this ban and no people who have come from America?” Former race discrimination commissioner Tim Soutphommasane seconds the suspicions.  “We didn’t see differential treatment being extended to countries such as the United States, the UK, and any other European country even though the rates of infection were very high and the danger of its arrivals from those countries was very high.” 

The Australian Human Rights Commission has also asked the federal government to justify its actions. “The government must show that these measures are not discriminatory and the only suitable way of dealing with the threat to public health.”

In the face of such behaviour, aggrieved citizens are left with few legal measures.  Australia, among liberal democratic states, is idiosyncratic in refusing to adopt a charter of rights. Down Under, parliamentarians are supposedly wise and keen to uphold human rights till they think otherwise.  (Human rights, the argument goes, would become the fodder of lawyers and judges, interfering with the absolute will of Parliament and the electors.)  The Australian Constitution is hopelessly silent on the issue of citizenship.  Left at the mercy of legislative regulation, Parliament and the executive can be disdainful towards their citizens without consequences.

One avenue remains the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Committee.  On April 15, the UNHRC ruled on the case of two petitioners of FreeAndOpenAustralia.org (formerly StrandedAussies.org) that the Morrison government had to “facilitate and ensure their prompt return to Australia.” 

Represented by the notable sage of international law Geoffrey Robertson QC, the petitioners argued that Australia was in breach of Articles 12(4) and 2(3) of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.  The first article provides that no one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country; the second provides for “effective” remedies to be granted to those whose rights and freedoms have breached under the ICCPR.  The petitioners also freely admitted that they had no issue with quarantining for 14 days on returning to Australia.

In the words of Free and Open Australia spokesperson Deb Tellis, the Commonwealth should “use its power to expand quarantine facilities, and end travel caps that are being dictated by the states.  There are thousands of our fellow citizens suffering loss of their relatives and loss of their jobs.”

The government has preferred a meaner, penny pinching approach in coping with quarantine, reducing flights when needed rather than expanding facilities to accommodate a greater number of infected arrivals.  The hotel quarantine system continues to receive effusive praise from the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison as being 99.99 percent effective.  But it is impossible for him, and his ministers, to conceal the fact that they do not trust, and are unwilling, to use other facilities and expand existing ones.

Since last November, there have been 16 COVID-19 leaks across the cities of Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth from quarantine hotels.  At this writing, another quarantine leak is being reported in Western Australia, involving the now customarily infected hotel security guard and the inevitable seepage into the community.  The problem of airborne transmission continues to plague, as does the uneven provision of Personal Protective Equipment.  No national standard of quarantine has been formulated through the country, with each state adopting its own approach.  Audits of the ventilation systems in many such hotels remain sketchy.

Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan, who recently imposed a lockdown of the Perth and Peel areas and may well do the same thing over the next few days, suggested that the Commonwealth be generous with some of its facilities.  Why not use the RAAF Curtin Air Base, or the immigration detention centres of Yongah Hill and Christmas Island?  “It’s kind of staring us in the face and there are things that could assist, it’s just that the Commonwealth doesn’t want to do it.”

The evidence so far is that facilities such as Howard Springs in the Northern Territory tend to work.  It features single-storey cabins, segregated air conditioning systems, outdoor veranda space and, in the vicinity, a fully functioning hospital.  No leaks have been recorded.  And location is everything: distant from densely populated areas.  This government, however, remains miserly on the score of quarantine, an obligation it has transferred without constitutional justification to State premiers who fear both the virus and its electoral consequences.

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Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research. Email: [email protected] 

The Indian Factor in Central Asia

April 30th, 2021 by Vladimir Platov

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India’s regional strategy aims to strengthen its status not only as a regional leader in South Asia, but also as an important pan-Asian player. However, despite its leading position in the region, India, for a number of objective reasons, faces difficulties in promoting South Asian regional cooperation projects. These reasons include, in particular, Indo-Pakistani and Indo-Chinese contradictions, and the specifics of India’s relations with the small and medium-sized countries of the region, which, seeking to avoid unilateral dependence on India, are not ready for full-scale integration. Under these conditions, the Central Asian region, along with Southeast Asia, seems to be a natural area of activity for the Indian foreign policy and business elite, where India could significantly expand and strengthen its presence.

For centuries, India has had some influence in the Central Asian region as its immediate neighbor. With India’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2017 and the creation of the India-Central Asia Dialogue Platform in 2019, New Delhi has gained a number of additional opportunities to project its influence on the region, and implement multilateral cooperation and projects. However, although India sees itself as an important actor capable of playing a constructive role not only in Central Asia, but also within the SCO, New Delhi’s attitude toward this organization remains somewhat cautious and it is still seen more as a secondary instrument of India’s interaction with Central Asian countries, China and Russia. To some extent, this position can be explained by the Indian political elite’s uncertainty about the further evolution of the organization and the nature of the relationship between its members, as well as their fears that China will dominate the SCO and that Russia will interact with it on a more friendly basis than it does with India.

In recent years, India has worked with a range of regional partners in Central Asia to develop a major North-South infrastructure corridor designed to expand Indian trade and investment in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia and Europe. This 7,200-kilometer multimodal route already takes Indian goods across the Arabian Sea to the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, from where they move north by road and rail via Iran and Azerbaijan to Russia and Europe. Ultimately, this project will connect India with Turkey and the Central Asian republics, as well as with the east-west trans-Siberian rail network, allowing access to both EU and Chinese markets.

India’s strategic interests in Central Asia include access to energy resources, expanding India’s economic influence and deepening its regional integration. In an effort to ensure its energy security, India is trying to reduce its overdependence on crude oil from the volatile Persian Gulf region by diversifying its supply through new purchases from Africa, the United States and other sources. In this context, India views access to Central Asian natural oil and gas resources as an important element.

Turkmenistan, the world’s fourth-largest source of natural gas, is of particular importance to India in this regard because, amongst others, of the long-planned Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, which could provide India with up to 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

Access to uranium supplies from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is also of significant interest to India’s civilian nuclear power program.

In 2019, India and Uzbekistan, the world’s seventh-largest uranium exporter, signed a long-term contract to supply uranium. Strengthening cooperation between the two states on this basis can lead to an increase in bilateral trade and investment. Negotiations on a free trade agreement are actively underway.

India’s strategic interest in Kazakhstan also stems from gaining access to its uranium deposits. Today, Kazakhstan accounts for about 15% of the world’s extracted uranium, and since 2014, India has provided about 80% of its uranium imports precisely owing to Kazakhstan.

But the deposits of gold, silver, aluminum and other strategic minerals in the Central Asian states are also seriously attracting representatives of the Indian economy and industry, especially in Kyrgyzstan.

As for Tajikistan, it has little economic interest for India. However, its geographic location in the middle of Central Asia, the presence of its southeastern border north of the eastern peninsula of Afghanistan’s Wakhan corridor, a geostrategic strip of land that borders China to the east, and Kashmir, is of particular strategic interest to India. That is why the Farkhor airbase, 130 kilometers southeast of the Tajik capital Dushanbe, was the first in 2005 and so far the only Indian foreign military base, which operates in cooperation with the Tajik Air Force.

The share of Indian investment in the region as a whole is still very modest, but the potential is great. As transport and communication issues are resolved in the future, we can expect to see more Indian capital in the national economies of Central Asia.

Given its trade and economic interests, India is actively investing in its traditional areas – textiles, innovative medicine, pharmaceuticals, and information technology. India’s participation in the Mazar-e-Sharif-Herat railroad project, which is strategically important for Central Asia and runs through the territory of Afghanistan and Iran will open doors to Central Asia for India, giving all interested parties access to the markets of neighboring countries and regions.

Together with regional partners, India created the India-Central Asia Business Council in 2020, which already held its first meeting in February 2020 to deepen ties between Indian business circles and chambers of commerce in the region. There is also the India-Central Asia Development Group being established, through which New Delhi will offer financing for development projects in the region through its EXIM Bank credit facilities and the provision of technical expertise.

While expanding North-South trade and economic cooperation, India also seeks to strengthen political dialogue with its most important partners: Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asian countries, Russia, and Eastern Europe. But cooperation with India, if properly focused, can give the necessary impetus for the further development of the Central Asian countries, especially given that India is the second most populous country in the world and the sixth largest in terms of GDP, which objectively allows it to become one of the main centers of power in the world.

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Vladimir Platov is an expert on the Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

Featured image is from New Eastern Outlook

China Has Lift-off for Its New Space Station

April 29th, 2021 by Frank Chen

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The core module of China’s future Tiangong space station blasted off Thursday morning from southern Hainan island’s Wenchang Space Launch Center, marking a key next step in establishing a permanent human presence in space.

China’s space station is poised to be the only habitable artificial satellite when the International Space Station (ISS) is decommissioned by 2024.

The Tiangong’s core module, named Tianhe, or Heavenly Harmony, will contain living space for three taikonauts and auxiliary experiment units into a 16.6-meter, 22.5-tonne cylinder, according to state news agency Xinhua and independent media reports.

The Tiangong space station is expected to become fully operational by the end of 2022, with 11 more missions planned to complete its construction. Those include two more Long March 5B launches in the span of about 18 months to take up more parts and assemble them in orbit.

An unmanned cargo and refueling spacecraft will visit and dock by mid-year with the Tianhe in low orbit. Then the first crew to the new facility will embark on their journey. All told, the project will include three module launches, four crewed missions and four Tianzhou cargo spacecraft flights.

Once up and running, the T-shaped Tiangong is expected to remain in low orbit at between 400 and 450 kilometers above sea level for 15 years or possibly longer.

The size of the future space station, with total indoor space of 110 cubic meters to house three taikonauts, is dwarfed by the decade-old ISS, a multinational project spearheaded by Russia, the United States and the European Union that has 916 cubic meters of indoor rooms and labs. China was barred from participating in the ISS by the US.

Live feed from state broadcaster China Central Television showed space program employees cheering today (April 29) as the rocket powered its way through the atmosphere with a glowing fiery tail streak across the sky.

A visitor takes a picture of a mock-up of the Tianhe module on display. Photo: People’s Daily

A different view of a mock-up of the Tianhe module on display. Photo: Xinhua

Beijing has pledged to open the Tiangong to foreign collaboration, without giving details of the scope of that scheme. The state-run Global Times has suggested Beijing should invite NASA to send American astronauts to the Tiangong as space programs and collaboration should be insulated from wider geopolitical tensions between the two giants.

However, NASA is bound by US laws forbidding any such partnership with China’s state sector, known as the China Exclusion Policy introduced by the Barack Obama administration.

Well before its inception, the Chinese space station was featured in the 2013 Hollywood sci-fi blockbuster Gravity, in which a woman US astronaut entered the Tiangong after a devastating explosion that destroyed her space ship and she eventually steered the Shenzhou space shuttle back to earth.

China launched the Tiangong-1 lab, its first prototype module intended to lay the groundwork for the permanent station, in September 2011. Xinhua says the experimental lab is still functioning normally, years beyond its designed life.

Meanwhile, Chinese taikonauts are undergoing intense training for the first of four crewed missions planned using the Shenzhou space ship to construct and operate the Tiangong.

China News Service reported that the training included underwater sessions in specially designed space suits in a full-size mockup of the space station.

News footage shows woman taikonaut Wang Yaping preparing for neutral buoyancy training as practice for extravehicular activities, also known as spacewalks, which will be a crucial part of the space station’s construction and maintenance. The video also shows high-G centrifuge training.

As an up-and-coming new space superpower that has turned the space duopoly of America and Russia into a three-horse race, China put its first taikonaut, People’s Liberation Army admiral Yang Liwei, in space in 2003.

A total of 11 have gone into space during the country’s six crewed missions to date. China has over the years sent multiple probes to the Moon, including its dark side, and retrieved a small batch of lunar rocks and dust at the end of last year.

Another Chinese probe, the Tianwen, is circling Mars and preparing for a landing on the red planet next month.

Chinese President Xi Jinping inspects the lunar bounty. Picture: Xinhua

China celebrated its National Space Day last weekend, with the lunar samples exhibited across the nation and drawing huge crowds. Officials and engineers also revealed more dates, details and deadlines for four pillar programs focused on the space station, lunar exploration, Mars exploration and deep space trips.

Preparations are also being revved up for the Chang’e 6 to land on the South Pole of the Moon’s dark side and return with samples, with its launch date set for 2024 or earlier.

Beijing and Moscow announced on April 24 a joint program to pool talent to design, construct and operate a lunar station for research and experiments.

Wu Weiren, the chief designer of the Chang’e lunar missions, told reporters the facility would comprise a station on the lunar surface as well as several orbiters and that a 2030 deadline had been set for both countries to break ground on the project that would be the first for mankind.

In the first hint of China’s ambitions for a deep space odyssey, Xinhua cited Wu as saying that by 2049, the centenary of Communist China, a Chinese space ship would be flying to the edge of the solar system, about 15 billion kilometers from earth, to explore the unchartered territory of interstellar space, following in the steps of America’s Voyager that left earth in 1977.

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Featured image: The Tianhe core module lifts off on Thursday morning, marking the start of the construction of China’s first space station. Photo: Xinhua

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On April 12, China announced the appointment of its new special representative on Korean Peninsula affairs—Ambassador Liu Xiaoming. Amb. Liu’s career has been most notable for two things: he was the Chinese Ambassador to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) when North Korea conducted its first two nuclear tests (from 2006 to 2010); and he served the longest single ambassadorial posting (from 2010 to 2021 in the United Kingdom) in the history of People’s Republic of China (PRC), skillfully navigating a turbulent ten years of China’s foreign policy. The choice for this assignment shows Beijing’s desire to entrust this delicate issue to a veteran diplomat with rich experience in Pyongyang. However, what’s more interesting is the timing and message this appointment sends, suggesting China sees renewed diplomacy on the horizon.

History of the Position

The office of the special representative on Korean Peninsula affairs was first set up in 2003 under a slightly different title—ambassador on Korean Peninsula affairs—and tasked with diplomatic engagement with parties related to the Six Party Talks. From 2003 to 2011, the position was kept at a director-general level and filled by Ambassador Ning Fukui, Li Bin, Chen Naiqing, and Yang Houlan consecutively.

In early 2010, China elevated the office to the “special representative on Korean Peninsula affairs” and its ranking from the director-general level to the vice-ministerial level. The first special representative was Ambassador Wu Dawei, who had been China’s vice foreign minister since 2004. He was in the position for seven and a half years until handing the torch over to Ambassador Kong Xuanyou, assistant foreign minister, in August 2017. Ambassador Kong was promoted to vice foreign minister in January of 2018 and appointed Chinese ambassador to Japan in May 2019. Since then, the position for the special representative on Korean Peninsula affairs has been vacant. In June 2019, the Chinese Foreign Ministry acknowledged that “China will select a qualified person for the position of the special envoy and will release information when it becomes available,” although no appointment followed.[1]

Timing of the New Appointment

The fact that the special envoy’s position was kept vacant for two years and has been filled only now carries important connotations. After the Hanoi Summit in 2019, US-DPRK bilateral engagement fell into an abysmal stalemate over disagreements about what concrete actions North Korea should take on the denuclearization front and what the US should provide in return. During that period, diplomacy was kept at a bilateral level, and outreach/engagement with other parties, including China, was minimal.

Under those circumstances, there was no pressing need for China to appoint a new special envoy, especially given Beijing’s relatively high confidence that the bilateral engagement between the US and North Korea would not render the result Washington desired. This has been particularly true since the outbreak of the pandemic, which completely shifted the attention of both North Korea and the US to domestic affairs.

This context makes China’s appointment of a new special envoy particularly important. It signifies the conviction in Beijing that as the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review nears completion, the resumption of diplomacy is on the horizon, either bilaterally between the US and China over pressure and incentives needed for the DPRK to return to the negotiation table, or multilaterally with China involved. Early signs suggest that Washington is inclined to reach out to Beijing for assistance and cooperation on North Korea, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s call last month for China to use its “tremendous influence” to convince North Korea to denuclearize.

While the US and China still have vastly different visions for the endgame on the Korean Peninsula, making it highly unlikely that the two can reach a consensus at the strategic level on North Korea, working-level cooperation at the technical level remains possible. Beijing is willing to leverage its North Korea card in its bargaining with Washington, and this new assignment appears to be its attempt to prepare for such cooperation. That is perhaps the most essential message embedded in the new appointment.

Personnel Shifts in Sino-DPRK Relations

The appointment of Ambassador Liu coincides with other recent personnel shifts in Sino-DPRK relations. In February, North Korea just replaced 79-year-old Ji Jae Ryong with former deputy premier and foreign trade specialist, 60-year-old Ri Ryong Nam, as its ambassador to China. The generational change is reportedly to be followed suit by China’s replacement of 64-year-old Ambassador Li Jinjun with 51-year-old Wang Yajun—the youngest vice-ministerial-level official in China’s foreign policy apparatus—as its top diplomat in Pyongyang (the news of the appointment has been out although the actual replacement has not happened due to continued COVID-related border restrictions).

These personnel shifts could indicate the different priorities Beijing and Pyongyang are using to gauge bilateral relations. On the one hand, both Li and Wang have been the deputy chief of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCID). In fact, the position of Chinese ambassador to North Korea has been consistently occupied by a former deputy chief of the CCID. This illustrates the continued dominance of party-to-party relations, or the theme of political friendship in Sino-DPRK relations. On the other hand, North Korea’s appointment of an economic and trade specialist as its top envoy to China highlights the country’s desire to enhance economic ties and domestic growth, especially after the hardship imposed by the pandemic over the last year.

Conclusion

This year marks the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty. The Treaty automatically renews every 20 years. Given that no advanced notice for cancellation has been announced by either side, the Treaty will continue for the foreseeable future. In light of the changes to US-China relations and the conditions in North Korea, China appears to be ramping up its personnel appointments, resources and efforts to prepare for diplomatic engagement over North Korea. The decisions are strategically timed to echo the completion of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review. Beijing may not feel the ball is in its court and could wait for Washington to reach out first, but its interest and posturing are fully panned out.

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Notes

[1] Translation provided by author.

Featured image is from Embassy of China in the UK

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Rising 2,064 meters, or nearly 6,800 feet, above sea level, Mount Busa is the tallest peak in the Philippines’ Sarangani province and home to one of the last verdant primary forests on the southern island of Mindanao.

Busa is known as Bulul Tembob to the T’boli tribe, who consider it hallowed ground, a place where they worship their deities, connect with the spirits of their ancestors and commune with nature.

The mountain, located in the town of Kiamba, some 1,700 kilometers (nearly 1,100 miles) southeast of the capital Manila, was designated a key biodiversity area (KBA) and bird conservation area in 2001, and is considered a high-priority site for conservation in the Philippines.

Overlooking Moro Gulf, Busa enjoys a marginal level of protection: The northern slopes are part of the larger Allah Valley Protected Landscape (AVPL), but the 114,000-hectare (282,000-acre) mountain, known globally for its rich biodiversity and bird sightings, has yet to be declared a protected area.

View from Mount Busa peak overlooking the Celebes Sea. Image by Kier Michael E. Pitogo.

A growing number of species sighted and surveys conducted in recent years have led to a deluge of new species being described from the mountain, prompting the local government to declare its massif, the principal mountain mass, a local conservation area in March 2020. Under this designation, the mountain — or at least the upper slopes — are one step closer to being under a legal protective framework.

However, the designation still falls short of stopping the growing pressure the mountain faces from mining, logging, hunting and poaching.

Environmentalists and local officials have called for Busa to be formally, and legally, declared a protected landscape under the country’s Expanded National Integrated Protected Areas System (E-NIPAS), a 2018 regulation that aims to ensure the ecological integrity of protected areas and mandates the creation of management boards for declared protected areas.

Treasure trove

Mt. Busa is home to the rare Guttman’s stream frog (Pulchrana guttmani), an endemic shiny frog that was not seen between 1993 and 2020, leading scientists to believe that it had gone extinct. It is also known to host the Philippine eagle (Pithecophaga jefferyi), the country’s rare national bird. In the past three years, at least two Philippine eagles have been rescued in the vicinity of the mountain.

An avian survey of the mountain’s southern slope, which has never been assessed by biologists in the past, was carried out by the Philippine Eagle Foundation (PEF) and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) in the past year. The results sealed the mountain’s ecological importance; Busa, experts say, is one of the remaining strongholds of the Philippine eagle and other birds.

“Despite the limited survey effort, the results clearly indicate that the Busa Mountain Range harbors a rich assemblage of bird species hinting at the substantial level of biodiversity this mountain range hosts,” the study notes. “More importantly, this area houses a significant number of species threatened with extinction which is of high priority for conservation.”

Busa is also gaining recognition for its plant biodiversity; at least 108 species of flowering orchids from 51 genera, of which 53 species are endemic to the Philippines and 15 species are known only to occur on Mindanao Island, have been discovered in its forests.

Mossy forest in Mindanao.

Mossy forest in Mindanao. Mount Busa is gaining recognition for its plant biodiversity with many species of flowering orchids endemic to only Mindanao Island. Image by Kier Michael E. Pitogo.

Since 2018, biologists Kier Mitchel Pitogo and Aljhon Jay Saavedra have been conducting a biodiversity assessment at Busa, recording more than 600 wildlife species thriving in its forests, including the Guttman’s stream frog and an abundant array of orchids.

“[The] results [of the assessment] suggest a relatively rich and distinct orchid diversity among different forest types in Mt. Busa that reinforces the high conservation value of the mountain range,” the authors wrote.

“It is very likely that there are more unknown orchid species within Mt. Busa; that’s why it is very important to declare it as a protected landscape,” Pitogo told Mongabay.

Of the newly documented species of orchids on Busa, at least four are putatively new and undescribed species: Bulbophyllum sp. 3, Calanthe sp., Coelogyne sp., and Dendrochilum sp. 2. At least nine species are also new island records for Mindanao, having been recorded in the two other main islands of Luzon and the Visayas, the authors said.

Many of these species are already being collected for ornamental use by the four tribal communities in the vicinity of the mountain.

Of the 32 orchid species used as ornamental plants by local people, the study noted that five species are on the DENR’s list of threatened plants. Of the five, one is listed as critically endangered (Grammatophyllum wallisii), three as endangered (Phalaenopsis sanderiana, Phalaenopsis reichenbachiana and Renanthera monachica), and one as vulnerable (Phalaenopsis mariae).

Pitogo says the orchids recorded on Busa might become extinct if they’re not guarded against poachers and people who visit the mountain range for trekking or to commune with nature.

When the COVID-19 pandemic broke out early last year, interest in plants surged across the Philippines, giving rise to so-called plantitas and plantitos, often middle-aged women and men who became instant plant lovers. The craze, which extended through Mindanao, prompted the DENR to issue a warning against poachers.

“Because most of these orchids are beautiful with their vibrant colors, visitors are tempted to bring them down not knowing they might be exterminating the last of their kind,” Pitogo said.

A Philippine pit viper (Trimeresurus flavomaculatus) from Mindanao island.

A Philippine pit viper (Trimeresurus flavomaculatus) from Mindanao island. Image by Kier Michael E. Pitogo.

Compounding the threat to the orchids thriving in Busa is the lack of knowledge among the law enforcers at the various highway checkpoints ostensibly set up to check that wild plants and animals aren’t being smuggled out.

Of the more than 100 orchid species that have been recorded on Busa, only four are included among the reference photographs used by officials at these checkpoints, according to Pitogo.

Persistent threats

The area faces threats from more than just plant enthusiasts, though.

Deforestation arrived much later to this area than in the rest of the Philippines, in part due to armed conflicts that served to keep both poachers and business interests at bay. In the early 1990s, authorities handed out logging concessions for the mountain’s lower slopes, which paved the way for slash-and-burn farming, or kaingin to locals, illegal logging activity, mining, and wildlife hunting, Pitogo said.

Among these, small-scale gold mining, mostly illegal, has beckoned outsiders. Records from the Mines and Geosciences Bureau showed there have been applications for copper, gold and iron ventures in the area.

In 2010, Sarangani province had 154,000 hectares (380,500 acres) of natural forests, covering 64% of its total land area. But over the next 10 years, it lost 437 hectares (1,080 acres), according to Global Forest Watch.

The orchids, eagles and other wildlife that depend on this ecosystem will have greater chances of thriving if the Busa mountain range is declared a protected area under the E-NIPAS law, Pitogo and other local environmentalists say.

Such a declaration would immediately prohibit a range of ongoing activities: poaching or disturbing the wildlife; hunting, taking or collecting any wildlife or byproducts; and cutting, gathering or removing timber without a permit. Violators would face fines ranging from 50,000 to 5 million pesos ($1,034 to $103,400), and prison terms ranging from six to 12 years.

In March 2021, the Task Force for Mt. Busa Conservation passed a measure endorsing the declaration of the mountain and the adjacent watersheds as a protected area under the E-NIPAS law. Stakeholders, through a series of meetings, proposed naming the protected area the Mt. Busa-MAKIMA Sarangani Protected Landscape. MAKIMA stands for Maasim, Kiamba and Maitum, the towns that are straddled by the Busa mountain range.

“This is the fruit of the concerted efforts of the people who believed in the importance of the protection and conservation of globally threatened flora and fauna that are present in Mt. Busa, which are vulnerable, unique and irreplaceable,” says Cornelio Ramirez, Jr., head of the Sarangani Environmental Protection and Conservation Center.

Stream at the base of Mount Busa.

Stream at the base of Mount Busa. Image by Kier Michael E. Pitogo.

Pitogo, whose study highlighted habitat destruction and unsustainable harvesting as major threats to orchids not just in the Philippines but the rest of the world, said he welcomed local efforts to declare Busa a protected area for the conservation of the mountain’s rich biodiversity. He also called for massive education awareness campaigns to be conducted among locals to help conserve not just the orchids but also the whole of Busa as a home to a rich biodiversity of flora and fauna.

With the assistance of the tribal members, Pitogo said, they are looking forward to more explorations within Busa to document other species thriving in its forests.

“There’s a dearth of biodiversity assessment in Mt. Busa,” he said, “particularly orchids, which my team is trying to fill up to help the local government units and the DENR in monitoring the trafficking of these charismatic plants.”

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Sources

Pitogo, K. M. E., & Saavedra, A. J. L. (2021). Rediscovery of Guttman’s stream frog, Pulchrana guttmani (Brown, 2015) in the mountains of southern Mindanao, Philippines. Herpetology Notes, 14, 163-167.

Senarillos, T. L. P., Pitogo, K. M. E., & Ibañez, J. C. (2020). Bird observations in the Busa Mountain Range, Sarangani province, Philippines. Philippine Journal of Science150, 347-362. Retrieved from https://philjournalsci.dost.gov.ph/publication/special-issues/biodiversity/104-vol-150-s1/1358-bird-observations-in-the-busa-mountain-range-sarangani-province-philippines

Saavedra, A. J. L., & Pitogo, K. M. E. (2020). Richness and distribution of orchids (Orchidaceae) in the forests of Mount Busa, Sarangani, Southern Mindanao, Philippines. Philippine Journal of Science150, 151-163. Retrieved from https://philjournalsci.dost.gov.ph/publication/special-issues/biodiversity/104-vol-150-s1/1327-richness-and-distribution-of-orchids-orchidaceae-in-the-forests-of-mount-busa-sarangani-southern-mindanao-philippines

Featured image: The Western Mindanao slender skink (Brachymeles tiboliorum) is a species of skink endemic to the Philippines. Image by Kier Michael E. Pitogo.

Cracks in QUAD as US Violates Indian Sovereignty?

April 28th, 2021 by Paul Antonopoulos

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Through diplomatic channels, New Delhi protested to Washington on April 9 about the American warships that illegally entered the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of India. The Seventh Fleet’s USS John Paul Jones frigate was en route from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca before it illegally entered India’s EEZ close to the Lakshadweep archipelago to the southwest of the Indian mainland in the Arabian Sea. 

Under Indian laws and regulations, foreign ships can freely pass through Indian territorial waters. However, this only applies to civilian and commercial ships, and warships must receive approval from India to pass through. New Delhi’s position is consistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which states that any warship must receive the consent of coastal states to pass through.

In response, a representative of the Seventh Fleet said the USS John Paul Jones “asserted navigational rights and freedoms approximately 130 nautical miles (240 km) west of the Lakshadweep Islands, inside India’s exclusive economic zone, without requesting India’s prior consent, consistent with international law.”

Since 1979, the U.S. has conducted activities to ensure “freedom of navigation” around the world. The purpose of these activities is to not recognize unilateral actions by states that restrict the travel of foreign ships. Specifically, this is about warships and aircraft to areas that Washington considers free seas.

The USS John Paul Jones ship incident is not an isolated case though. The same thing happened in November 2020 when the USS John S. McCain destroyer entered Russian territorial waters in Peter the Great Bay in the Sea of Japan. After being warned by the Russian navy, American ships quickly retreated into international waters, but a spokesman for the Seventh Fleet declared: “All of our operations are designed to be conducted in accordance with international law and demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows – regardless of the location of excessive maritime claims and regardless of current events.”

The U.S. unsurprisingly has a similar view when it comes to “free navigation” operations in the South China Sea. For example, when travelling near the Spratly Islands, the U.S. claims that these are international territorial waters. This is aimed against China, which claims 80% of the South China Sea as its own territory, but this also applies equally to all other countries in the region such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, who also claim sovereignty over the Spratly Islands.

However, there is a paradox to the U.S. invoking UNCLOS to justify carrying out activities to ensure “freedom of navigation.” Following the November 2020 aggression, the U.S. Seventh fleet emphasized that “As long as some countries continue to assert maritime claims that are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention and that purport to restrict unlawfully the rights and freedoms enjoyed by all States, the United States will continue to defend the rights and freedoms of the sea guaranteed to all.” Of the 193 United Nations member states, the U.S. is one of only 15 countries who have not signed UNCLOS – some of the non-signatories are landlocked countries

Former Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Navy, Admiral Arun Prakash, wrote on Twitter:

“There is irony here. While India ratified UN Law of the Seas in 1995, the US has failed to do it so far. For the 7th Fleet to carry out FoN [Freedom of Navigation] missions in [the] Indian EEZ in violation of our domestic law is bad enough. But publicising it? USN [United States Navy] please switch on [Identification, Friend or Foe]!”

Washington wants to live up to the notions of freedom of navigation, but it does not take international treaties seriously and the laws of sovereign states.

As the retired Admiral Prakash added in another tweet:

“FoN ops by USN ships (ineffective as they may be) in South China Sea, are meant to convey a message to China that the putative EEZ around the artificial [South China Sea] islands is an ‘excessive maritime claim.’ But what is the 7th Fleet message for India?”

This is all the more curious considering that in recent years India has become an enthusiastic member of QUAD to contain and/or limit Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region. As China has a close alliance with Pakistan – economically and militarily – New Delhi believes that by joining QUAD alongside the U.S. (a global power), Japan (an Asian regional power) and Australia (an Oceanic regional power), they will be able to offset China’s growing dominance in the vast Indo-Pacific region.

As demonstrated by the actions and responses from the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet, Washington does not view India as an equal partner to counter China, but rather a vassal whose sovereignty can be violated condescendingly. New Delhi claims that Beijing tacitly supports terrorist organizations based in Pakistan that undermine Indian sovereignty in Jammu and Kashmir. Under this justification, New Delhi began to rapidly realign its foreign policy towards Washington. This has not strengthened India’s territorial sovereignty though, and rather it has opened a new front for violations as the U.S. unapologetically sails through Indian waters without approval or within the bounds of international law.

This raises questions on whether cracks are beginning to already emerge in the QUAD Alliance.

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Paul Antonopoulos is an independent geopolitical analyst.

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It might sound like an 18th century fashion statement, but the “pale imperial hairstreak” is, actually, an extravagant butterfly. This pale blue (male) or white (female) butterfly was once widespread, found in old growth brigalow woodlands that covered 14 million hectares across Queensland and News South Wales.

But since the 1950s, over 90% of brigalow woodlands have been cleared, and much of the remainder is in small degraded and weed infested patches. And with it, the butterfly numbers have dropped dramatically.

In fact, our new study has found it has a 42% chance of extinction within 20 years.

It isn’t alone. Our team of 28 scientists identified the top 26 Australian butterfly species and subspecies at greatest risk of extinction. We also estimated the probability that they will be lost within 20-years.

Author provided 

Without concerted new conservation effort, we’ll not only lose unique elements of Australia’s nature, but also the important ecosystem services these butterflies provide, such as pollination.

Only six are protected under law

We are now sounding the alarm as most species identified as at risk have little or no management underway to conserve them, and only six of the 26 butterflies identified are currently listed for protection under Australian law.

The Ptunarra Xenica is one of three at risk butterflies identified in Tasmania. Simon Grove/Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery

The good news is there’s still a very good chance of recovery for most of these species, but only with new targeted conservation effort, such as protecting habitat from clearing and weeds, better fire management and establishing more of the right caterpillar food plants.

Source: Michael Braby et al Get the data

 

Let’s meet a few at-risk butterflies

The butterflies identified are delightful and fascinating creatures, with intriguing lifecycles, including fussy food preferences, subterranean accommodation and intimate relationships with “servant” ants.

The Australian fritillary

Our most imperilled butterfly is the Australian fritillary, with a 94% chance of extinction within 20 years. Like many of our butterfly species, a major threat facing the fritillary is habitat loss and habitat change.

The swamps where the fritillary occur have been drained for farming and urbanisation. At remaining swamps, weeds smother the native violets the larvae depend on for food.

This is one of the last known photos of the Australian fritillary. If you see a fritillary, immediately contact the NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment. Garry Sankowsky

No one has managed to collect or take a photo of a fritillary in two decades, although a butterfly expert observed a single individual flying near Port Macquarie in 2015.

It might already be extinct, but as it was once quite widespread at swampy areas along 700 kilometres of coastal Queensland and NSW, we have hope there are still some out there.

The fritillary has impressive jet black caterpillars with a vibrant orange racing stripe and large spikes along their back, which transform into stunning orange and black butterflies.

Black caterpillar

Australian fritillary caterpillars are black with a distinctive orange stripe and spikes. Garry Sankowsky

Anyone who thinks they have seen a fritillary should record the location, try to photograph it and the site and immediately contact the NSW Department of Planning Industry and Environment.

The fritillary is among many butterflies with specific diets. And these preferences can make species vulnerable to environmental changes such as vegetation clearing, weed invasions and fires.

The small bronze azure

Caterpillars of the small bronze azure — found on Kangaroo Island (and a few other patches in South Australia and Victoria) — only eat common sourbush.

Following the extensive 2020 fires, the butterfly hasn’t been found in areas where the sourbush burnt. Luckily, it’s been found in small patches of unburnt vegetation, so for now it’s hanging in there.

The small bronze azure has not been re-found in parts of Kangaroo Island where common sourbush burnt in the January 2020 fires. Richard Glatz

Like many butterflies, the lifecycle of the small bronze azure is enmeshed with a specific species of ant.

By day the butterfly larvae shelter underground in sugar ant (Camponotus terebrans) nests, then at night they’re escorted up by the ants to feed on the sourbush. For their care the ants are rewarded by a sugary secretion the caterpillars produce.

The eastern bronze azure

Some relationships with ants are even more unusual. Kangaroo Island’s other imperilled species — the eastern bronze azure — stays underground in sugar ant nests for 11 straight months. We don’t yet know what they eat.

Grey butterfly on a rock

An eastern bronze azure (Ogyris halmaturia) on Kangaroo Island. Their colouring is excellent camouflage on branches.Michael Braby

In a macabre twist, they may be eating their hosts — the ants or the ant larvae. So why the ants carry them down and look after them is also a mystery.

It might be for sugary secretions, like with the small bronze azure, but the caterpillars could also be using chemical trickery, mimicking the scent of ant larvae to fool the ants.

Adults of the eastern bronze azure emerge only to flutter about for a few weeks in November, so at the time of the Kangaroo Island fires in January the entire population was safely underground in ant nests. And as the larvae don’t come up to feed on plants, they weren’t impacted by the loss of vegetation.

Orange and black butterfly on a green leaf

This is the black grass-dart, found near Coffs Harbour. The caterpillars eat Floyd’s grass (Alexfloydia repens) which is listed as endangered in NSW. Mick Andren

It’s not too late to save them

By raising awareness of these butterflies and the risks they face, we aim to give governments, conservation groups and the community time to act to prevent their extinctions.

Local landowners and Landcare groups have already been playing a valuable role in recovery actions for several species, such as planting the right food plants for the Australian fritillary around Port Macquarie, and for the Bathurst copper.

Brown and green butterfly on a log

The Bathurst copper in NSW is benefiting from community planting of its food plant sweet bursaria. Tessa Barratt

Indeed, most of the identified at-risk species occur across a mix of land types, including conservation, public and private land. In most cases, conservation reserves alone aren’t enough to ensure the long-term survival of the species.

Many landowners don’t realise they’re important custodians of such rare and threatened butterflies, and how important it is not to clear remaining patches of remnant native vegetation on their properties and adjoining road reserves.

People wanting to learn more about the butterfly species near them can use the free Butterflies Australia app to look up photos and information. You can also be a citizen scientist by recording and uploading sightings on the app.

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Full authors

Associate Professor, Australian National University

Research Assistant, Charles Darwin University

University Fellow, Charles Darwin University

University Associate, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania

Associate research scientist, University of Adelaide

Emeritus Professor, Griffith University

Retired: Emeritus Professor in Zoology, La Trobe University

Featured image: The bulloak jewel (Hypochrysops piceatus) Michael Braby, Author provided/The Conversation

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***

The crisis in Southeast Asia’s Myanmar continues to grow following the February 2021 military-led ousting of US-backed Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party.

Violence between US-backed opposition groups joined with US-armed and trained ethnic rebels and the central government has become the focus of the Western media as well as Western government themselves.

Just as was the case in Libya in 2011, the US government, the Western media, and a global network of US-funded fronts posing as rights groups and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are attempting to make the case for intervening in Myanmar – first through sanctions and then eventually through the recognition of and providing direct support to a US-backed parallel government and the armed groups fighting on its behalf.

The goal of destabilizing Myanmar mirrors similar campaigns of propaganda, violence, and instability in China’s Xinjiang region, Balochistan in Pakistan, and virtually everywhere else China’s One Belt, One Road development project is active – to encircle China with chaos and contain China’s rise upon the international stage.

To sell yet another episode of US-engineered regime change around the world, the Western media is using 3 key talking points to pressure nations around the world and particularly in Southeast Asia – to aid in advancing US foreign policy objectives versus Myanmar.

1. “The Violence Must End” 

Of course the violence should end. But the US government, Western media, and Western-backed fronts are referring only to violence carried out by Myanmar’s military and police.

No mention at all is made of opposition violence.

Just as the US and the Western media did during the “Arab Spring” in 2011, the 2014 US-backed overthrow of the Ukrainian government, or the more recent US-backed riots in Hong Kong – no mention at all is made of opposition violence.

Even as outlets like CNN admit in articles like, “Myanmar’s military is waging war on its citizens. Some say it’s time to fight back,” that the opposition is coming into possession of war weapons – the violence is still being depicted as “one-sided.”

This talking point is being repeated even by media, politicians, and diplomats across ASEAN.

However, if a problem is to be fully solved, it must be fully understood.

Condemning and stopping only half the violence amid an ongoing armed conflict is the same recipe for disaster used to destroy Libya, nearly destroy Syria, destabilize Ukraine, and leave nations like Yemen festering as massive and ongoing humanitarian crises for years to come.

2. “Democracy Must Return to Myanmar” 

While Myanmar did indeed have elections which resulted in Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD taking power – these are not elections that could – by any stretch of the imagination – be deemed “fair and free.”

The US and British governments have for decades poured money and political support into Aung San Suu Kyi’s political machine – both by directly backing the NLD as well as creating a massive nationwide network of fronts posing as NGOs to support the NLD before, during, and after elections.

The US government’s National Endowment for Democracy (NED) alone lists over 80 programs (that are admitted to) that form the core organizations making up Aung San Suu Kyi’s political base, interfering in areas ranging from media and lawmaking, to education and infrastructure, to political campaigning and polling, to economic affairs and resource management.

Aung San Suu Kyi herself has travelled to Washington DC specifically to meet with the US NED.

Democracy is a process of self-determination. The NLD’s foreign ties and backing represents acute foreign interference in Myanmar’s internal political affairs.

If unsubstantiated claims of “Russian interference” in America’s elections have created a political crisis with US politicians claiming American democracy is under dire, unprecedented threat, what sort of threat then does Myanmar’s democracy face with its main opposition party maintaining verified political and financial ties to a foreign power?

3. “Myanmar’s Military Must Stop Defying World Opinion”

If the “international community” is merely a euphemism for Wall Street, Washington, London, and Brussels, then “world opinion” is merely a euphemism for Western-manufactured consent generated by the West’s still massive and influential global-spanning media networks.

Thus “world opinion” is what the Western media says it is.

Only one side of the story is being told – Facebook, Twitter, Google via YouTube have seen to that after a coordinated campaign to purge the presence of Myanmar’s military and government from their platforms, as Forbes reported in their article, “YouTube Joins Facebook In Taking Down Channels Run By Myanmar’s Military In Coup Fallout.”

And as was the case regarding “WMDs” in Iraq in 2003, US military aggression against Libya and Syria beginning in 2011, the overthrow of the Ukrainian government in 2014, or even the recent unrest in Hong Kong and Thailand – the story being told about Myanmar by the Western media is based on verifiable lies and deliberate omissions.

We’re told that peaceful pro-democracy protesters are being brutalized by Myanmar’s military and police.

We’re not told that these protesters are the same groups who raided Rohingya communities in previous years, killing residents and burning businesses and homes to the ground and that they’ve been using the same level of violence more recently in the streets against state security forces.

We’re told that the leaders of the emerging “national unity government” created in parallel to Myanmar’s military-led central government is an attempt by Myanmar’s people to return democracy to the country.

We’re not told that key figures like “veteran democracy activist” Min Ko Naing had previously attempted to expel the nation’s Rohingya minority from the country, denying them as one of the nation’s ethnic groups – as noted even by Western-friendly publications like Frontier Myanmar in articles like, “Activists championed by rights groups have history of anti-Rohingya messaging.”

And of course, none of the information about Washington and its allies interfering in Myanmar for decades – including backing armed militant groups in Myanmar’s remote regions – is mentioned at all by the Western media. If it was, it would complicate the simplistic “good versus evil” narrative the West is using to sleepwalk the world into yet another regime change crisis.

If the world was told the truth about Myanmar, “world opinion” would be very different and Myanmar’s military attempting to maintain unity and control over the country versus foreign-funded opposition groups and armed ethnic separatists would be seen as an effort to avoid another Libya and Syria – and not the catastrophe the US claimed would happen if “the world” didn’t intervene – but the catastrophe that unfolded because the US sleepwalked the world into intervening.

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Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine New Eastern Outlook”.  

Featured image is from New Eastern Outlook

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Two important visits took place on April 2-3, 2021, the combination of which perfectly illustrated the difficult situation in which Seoul finds itself amid the standoff between Beijing and Washington. On the one hand, the US is South Korea’s main military and political ally, and the policy of rebuilding alliances that the new President Biden has addressed is trying to further strengthen the trilateral interaction in the Washington-Tokyo-Seoul triangle, both on the North Korean issue and in terms of “deterring” China. On the other hand, China is North Korea’s leading trading partner, and interaction with it has a chance to push North Korea toward inter-Korean cooperation.

The South Korean media often compares the country’s policy to walking on a tightrope, as Seoul wants to avoid spoiling relations with either side. Naturally, this requires having good relations with everyone. In a demonstrative manifestation of this policy, on the same day ROK Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and National Security Adviser Suh Hoon arrived for a private meeting with his counterparts from the United States and Japan.

Let’s start with the visit to China.

On April 2-3, Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong visited Xiamen, China, at the invitation of the Chinese side. The foreign minister was last in China in November 2017, and the meeting of foreign ministers of the two countries took place for the first time since November 2020.

Before leaving Seoul, the South Korean foreign minister told reporters that cooperating with China to make progress in Seoul’s efforts to build a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula is “very important,” and noted that discussions between Korea and China on the matter are going wel.

The talks were expected to discuss cooperation between Seoul and Beijing in preventing escalation of tensions in the region, high-level exchanges (including the possibility of a visit to Seoul by Chinese President Xi Jinping) and preparations for events marking the 30th anniversary of the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations, which will be in 2022.  In addition, Chung Eui-yong and Wang Yi were going to touch on US policy toward the DPRK and its provocative actions, as well as China’s involvement in building lasting peace in the region, since the resumption of denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea in the near future is unlikely after Pyongyang’s recent launches of short-range ballistic missiles.

Conservatives immediately criticized the visit. JoongAng Ilbo noted that the first thing most Korean foreign ministers did after taking office was to visit Washington, D.C. Chung, on the other hand, goes to China, which shows how much importance the Moon Jae-in administration attaches to China. If the Korean diplomat does not behave assertively, “Korea could be pried away from its decades-old alliance and be subjugated to China”.

At the ministerial meeting, Wang Yi stated that “South Korea and China are strategic partners and have common or similar positions on preservation of regional peace and stability, pursuit of co-development and security of global governance”. Calling the two countries eternal neighbors, Wang stressed the importance of strategic communication between Seoul and Beijing and said the talks were very timely.

Wang pointed out that the two sides favor “openness and inclusiveness”, pledging to “maintain an international order based on international law and to work together to protect multilateralism and expand common interests”. Regarding the DPRK, Wang added that “China, along with South Korea, will strive for a process of political settlement of the Korean Peninsula problem through dialogue”.

Chung Eui-yong also stressed that the two countries share the common goal of complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

As for the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to South Korea, the sides agreed to achieve this “as soon as the situation with COVID-19 stabilizes”. Though, there was no mention of this in China’s final statement.

Chung and Wang also agreed to “continuously explore cooperation between South Korea’s regional policy initiatives and China’s Belt and Road Initiative”.

In addition, they agreed to establish a joint committee in the first half of the year to develop a roadmap for the future development of relations between the two countries, since next year Seoul and Beijing will celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of their ties. The ministers also agreed to seek a strategic dialogue at the level of deputy foreign ministers and a “2+2” meeting involving diplomatic and security officials in the first half of this year.

The Korea Times noted in this regard that Seoul is trying to enlist Beijing’s cooperation in order to revive the stalled denuclearization talks between Pyongyang and Washington and achieve a peace process, since China is the only country that can still exert influence on the North. However, it is unclear whether the US and China are willing to cooperate with each other on global issues of common concern, such as the North Korean nuclear issue. Given the escalating rivalry between the G2, the prospects for their cooperation are not bright. This is all the more so when Washington is doubling down on forming an anti-China alliance. Biden is trying to expand the informal Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the Quad. But it is crucial for Seoul to maintain a balance between Washington and Beijing so as not to get caught in the crossfire.

The more conservative Korea Herald mentioned that Wang Yi allegedly said that “North Korea’s reasonable anxiety about its security must be addressed”. According to the newspaper, this means that Beijing wants to preserve the ruling regime of the DPRK, and that the sanctions against the North must be eased.  In this context, “it is questionable if Beijing will play a helpful role in denuclearizing North Korea”.

Now about the trip to America.

The meeting between Suh Hoon, Jake Sullivan and Shigeru Kitamura took place face-to-face at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis (symbolically, experts say) near Washington, and Suh Hoon became the first high-ranking South Korean official to visit the United States since the creation of the Joe Biden government.

According to National Security Council spokeswoman Emily Horn, the meeting provided “an opportunity for our nations to consult on a wide range of regional issues and foreign policy priorities, including maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, and combating climate change.”  The multilateral dialogue at the level of national security advisors “reflects the importance we place on broadening and deepening our cooperation on key issues and advancing our shared prosperity across a free and open Indo-Pacific”. Just in time for the final formation of a new policy on the DPRK, which the allies have a chance to influence or at least have a say in.

According to Suh Hoon, South Korea, Japan, and the United States “agreed on the urgency of the North Korean nuclear issue and the need for a diplomatic solution to the issue,” reiterating their joint efforts to resume denuclearization talks with Pyongyang as soon as possible.  “The US side explained the interim outcome of the ongoing North Korea policy review, and the security advisers of South Korea, the US and Japan held in-depth discussions on various issues related to preparations and implementation of measures for negotiations with North Korea”.

Also, “South Korea, the US and Japan also discussed global issues such as climate change and agreed to strengthen their cooperation based on their shared values”. The last phrase is very important for the author: recall Pompeo’s and others’ statements that the confrontation between the US and China is not political, but a value-based confrontation: freedom versus totalitarianism.

Of course, “agreed to strengthen” means that there is no full-fledged cooperation yet, but Suh Hoon believes that “the  three countries were able to hold strategic dialogue on various issues of mutual interest through this trilateral security advisers’ meeting.”

The White House, in its statement following the meeting, highlighted something slightly different. The advisers “shared their concerns about North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and reaffirmed their commitment to address and resolve these issues through concerted trilateral cooperation towards denuclearization”. They also stressed the need for full compliance with UN Security Council resolutions prohibiting any nuclear or ballistic missile tests by the North and “reaffirmed their steadfast commitment to working together to protect and advance their shared security goals”.  The importance of “reuniting separated Korean families, and the swift resolution of the abductions issue” was specifically mentioned.

Almost the same wording, including “cooperation based on shared values,” appeared in the joint statement at the end of the meeting: “a commitment to cooperation and joint action to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem,” “concern over Pyongyang’s continued nuclear and missile programs,” and “the need for full implementation of UN Security Council resolutions”. Nevertheless, “efforts to resume negotiations between North Korea and the US must continue as soon as possible,” and it is claimed that this phrase was included in the text of the statement at the request of Suh.

In addition to the general meeting, the ROK representative met with each of the vis-a-vis individually. In bilateral talks with Sullivan, Suh said he emphasized the positive impact of good inter-Korean relations on denuclearization talks with the North. However, he also noted the importance of a “coordinated strategy between South Korea and the United States”.  In this context, it can be considered a success that the US side “explained the progress made so far regarding North Korea and agreed to continue consultations throughout the remainder of the process”. In other words, the general line was explained to Seoul. But they agreed to listen.

But Seoul and Washington have reached an “agreement in principle” to hold a summit between the presidents of the ROK and the US. Without setting an exact date, the parties agreed to hold the summit as early as possible.

Suh also held bilateral talks with his Japanese counterpart at which “South Korea and Japan agreed to play a constructive and active role in the process of reviewing US policy toward North Korea and agreed on the importance of cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue”. The wording is rather vague, considering that before the visit, the ROK media wrote that “during the meeting with Shigeru Kitamura, chairman of Japan’s National Security Council, joint measures by Seoul and Tokyo to establish sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula will be discussed”.

As can be seen, in both cases the sides announced that the negotiations went well, but the visible results are seen in areas of little significance, because the big issues remained here and there. In fact, both meetings discussed regional security issues, including the North Korean issue, and in both China and America, South Korean officials demonstrated a constructive and positive approach. In both cases, however, the affair ended with general statements of willingness to cooperate and little specifics about the areas of minor importance.

Moreover, if we pay attention to the media coverage of the two visits, the English-language media in the ROK, which has a more conservative orientation, was much more critical of the trip to China than of the trip to America. From the point of view of conservatives, who constantly accuse Moon of cryptocommunism and pro-Chinese politics, “It is high time for Seoul to stop groveling to Beijing and remember who its main ally is”.

A similar position, albeit for different reasons, is held by supporters of the realist approach. This view holds that if we consider the trouble that one side would cause if Seoul were to join the other, although China has shown its teeth in the wake of the ROK’s decision to host THAAD, the United States’ grip could be much stronger, even in terms of a possible trade war.

Nevertheless, while Seoul desperately tries to sit on two parting chairs, already preparing to use the cross twine, the author watches with interest to see how such acrobatics will end.

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Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of the Far East at the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

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Indonesia has laid out an ambitious plan to tackle deforestation, the main factor contributing to the country being one of the top global greenhouse gas emitters. But experts have panned its goals as unrealistic, given the true state of forest loss in the country.

Under the plan recently announced by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry and due to be submitted to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in April, the government proposes three scenarios for emissions reduction, with differing levels of ambition.

The most ambitious scenario calls for more than halving the deforestation rate over the next three decades as well as reforesting 10.6 million hectares (26.2 million acres) of land by 2050. On this trajectory, the country’s forests are expected to become a net carbon sink by 2030, capable of absorbing 304 million tons of CO2e per year. This will be key in Indonesia’s bid to achieve peak emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2070.

“These all will require a transformational change in the energy sector as well as the food and land use system,” Emma Rachmawati, the environment ministry’s director of climate change mitigation, said at a recent public consultation of the long-term strategy.

Forestry experts say they aren’t convinced, however, pointing out that the country is already on track to vastly overshoot the most ambitious target.

Under that scenario, the government envisions capping the deforestation rate at 241,000 hectares (595,500 acres) from 2010 to 2030, and 99,000 hectares (244,600 acres) from 2031 to 2050. That means that, between 2010 and 2030, the maximum allowable deforestation is 4.82 million hectares (11.9 million acres). But by 2020, the halfway point of that period, the country had lost 4.71 million hectares (11.6 million acres) of forest, according to official data.

At this rate, Indonesia can’t afford to lose any more forest from now on, according to Yosi Amelia, the forest and climate program officer at environmental NGO Madani.

The problem, though, is that a certain level of deforestation is baked into all three government scenarios, from 14.64 million hectares (36.2 million acres) under the least ambitious one to 7.04 million hectares (17.4 million acres) under the most ambitious. The latter figure alone represents an area the size of Ireland.

Into the ‘danger zone’

The government touts last year’s figure of 115,459 hectares (285,300 acres) of deforestation — the lowest since it began keeping track of forest loss in 1990 — as evidence that it can keep pushing the rate to manageable levels.

But even if the policies that the government credits for that decline are maintained, the country is still on track to lose a further 55 million hectares (135.9 million acres) of forest by 2040, according to Dodik Ridho Nurrochmat, a professor of forest policy at the Bogor Institute of Agriculture (IPB).

Bringing down the deforestation rate to the level that the government envisions in any of its scenarios will be “very difficult based on our calculation,” Dodik said in a recent online discussion. “Even though the trend [of deforestation] is in a decline, the decline will be small and level off later.

“This is approaching an irreversible point,” he added, “which means we have to stop [further deforestation]. If we continue [to deforest more than 55 million hectares], we’ll enter the danger zone.”

Peat forest cleared for acacia plantaton in Sumatra, Indonesia. Image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.

Harvest vs. deforestation

Then there’s the perennial problem of how Indonesia calculates its deforestation rate. Plantations of acacia and eucalyptus that are cultivated to make paper and wood pulp are currently counted as forest — even though massive swaths of peatland and primary forest were cleared to make way for these plantations.

That’s what makes the government’s “record low” deforestation rate in 2020 so misleading: most of the decline came from a drop in harvesting of pulpwood trees, says Yosi from Madani.

Harvesting in these plantations accounted for three-fifths of the total deforestation rate in 2019, but plunged by 99% in 2020. At the same time, actual deforestation of actual natural forests declined by only 38%. Yosi said this might have to do with the cyclical nature of pulpwood plantations, with last year not being a harvesting year.

“That’s why last year’s deforestation rate went down, because there’s no cutting down of industrial plantation trees yet, they’re still at the planting stage,” she told Mongabay. “This is our assumption.”

As a result, the deforestation rate is likely to bounce back up once it’s harvest time for pulpwood producers, effectively undermining any goals that assume a declining deforestation rate.

Indonesian Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo with local officials ride a tractor during a visit at the site of the food estate program in Humbang Hasundutan district, North Sumatra province, Indonesia, in September 2020. Image courtesy of North Sumatra provincial government.

Forests for food

Indonesia is home to the world’s third-largest expanse of tropical forests, after Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo. As recently as the 1960s, 80% of the country was rainforest.

Now, only half of the country’s land is forested, due largely to illegal logging and industrial-scale clearing of forests and carbon-rich peatlands for plantations. The result of all this deforestation has been to release huge amounts of carbon initially stored in vegetation and peat soils.

The disappearance of these key ecosystems has also meant the loss of one of the world’s greatest buffers against climate change, given that old-growth forests absorb and store large amounts of carbon already in the atmosphere.

Yet the government insists there must be an allowable level of deforestation for cultivation of food crops. This is primarily to accommodate a plan to establish millions of hectares of large-scale agricultural plantations across the country, also known as the food estate program.

To ensure there’s sufficient land for the program, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry issued a regulation on Oct. 26 permitting protected forest areas to be cleared for that purpose on a “large scale.” A recent study by Madani shows there are 1.57 million hectares (3.8 million acres) of natural forests located in areas targeted by the government for conversion into farmland.

Nearly nine-tenths of these forests are in the province of Papua, one of the most biodiverse regions on Earth and home to the majority of Indonesia’s remaining tropical rainforest.

The food estate program is also exempted from a prevailing moratorium on clearing primary forests and peatlands. As such, environmentalists have long warned that the food estate program threatens to drive widespread deforestation.

Deforestation for palm oil and mining in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.

Commodity-driven deforestation

Madani’s Yosi said the plan to reduce emissions from the forestry sector likely hasn’t taken into account policies that increase deforestation risk like the food estate program and a widely criticized slate of deregulation recently passed by parliament.

If these policies are taken into account, then the environment ministry’s ambitious scenario becomes unrealistic, she added.

Hery Sulistio Jati Nugroho Sriwiyanto, a researcher at the NGO Kemitraan, said he’s also pessimistic that Indonesia will be able to achieve net-zero deforestation, considering that the country’s economy relies heavily on land-intensive commodities, like palm oil.

In March, the price of crude palm oil on the benchmark Bursa Malaysia Derivatives reached an all-time high. This will encourage further deforestation to cultivate oil palms, Hery said.

A recent studynot yet peer-reviewed, found that the rates of plantation expansion and forest loss correlate with palm oil prices, with a price decline of 1% associated with a 1.08% decrease in new plantations and a 0.68% decrease in forest loss.

“If we see the current trend of demand for commodity, it’s increasing now and the pressure on our land will surely be high,” Hery said. “If we look at the prices of commodities now, they’re potentially increasing to be really high.”

With a number of policies and economic factors presenting stumbling blocks to Indonesia’s bid to turn its forests back into a carbon sink, Yosi said the country needs to transform the way it uses its land and forests to develop its economy.

“Our future, as well as the next generation’s, depends on the transformation of Indonesia’s economic development so that it no longer destroys forests and the environment,” she said.

“This transformation has to start right now because the worsening impact of the climate crisis doesn’t give us a luxury of time.”

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Featured image: Forest clearing for oil palm in Riau, Sumatra, Indonesia. Image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.

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Spokesperson for the Australian National Campaign on Mining in the Philippines (ANCoMP) Andrew Morrison believes that Australian-Canadian mining company OceanaGold is misleading the public about its mine in Didipio in Central Luzon.

The Philippine government said it would renew the company’s right to mine in Didipio last December. OceanaGold said that proved it was “a responsible multinational miner” and that it had the strong endorsement of residents in local communities in and around the mine, including Indigenous people.

In fact, the mine is strongly opposed by local communities and Indigenous people, Morrison said on April 16, because “OceanaGold has been found to have committed serious human rights violations”.

OceanaGold started mining in Didipio in 2013, despite opposition from local government and the community.

“The company secured mining rights under a Financial and Technical Assistance Agreement (FTAA), which required it to reach agreement with landholders for access to their land.  But it failed to reach agreement with all relevant Didipio landholders and, allegedly, tried to circumvent consent processes. It also committed human rights abuses to forcefully acquire the land,” Morrison said.

“When OceanaGold’s FTAA expired in June 2019, community groups and local and provincial governments took action, including a legally sanctioned barricade, forcing OceanaGold to suspend its operations.”

A 2007 report by Oxfam Australia’s mining ombudsman reported allegations that OceanaGold had benefited from the forceful acquisition of the Didipio land. The Philippine Commission on Human Rights 2011 report found that OceanaGold had violated human rights by illegally demolishing at least 187 houses in Didipio, without a court order and without relocating those without shelter.

OceanaGold’s private security force also used violence against community members. The commission also found that the company had erected fences and checkpoints on roads used by locals, as well as using firearms to intimidate them. Residents were beaten and one was shot by OceanaGold security personnel.

The report noted that OceanaGold “is largely responsible for the continuing threats to security of persons, given it controls and supervises the actions of its security forces, and that unlawful demolitions were conducted at its behest”.

Morrison said other human rights abuses associated with the mine include the violent dispersal of protesters in 2009 and 2020. The UN High Commission for Human Rights is concerned. It said that last year around 100 police forcibly dispersed some 30 indigenous and environment defenders who were exercising their right to freedom of assembly to object to the continued operations in the Didipio mine, adding that the police used “unnecessary and disproportionate force”.

“The community and local government in Didipio oppose OceanaGold’s mine because of its alleged devastating effects on their health, livelihoods and the environment,” Morrison said. “Residents have complained about noise, air and water pollution that have affected income from agriculture, and caused serious health problems including an increase in respiratory complaints and skin diseases.

“Reports by Advocates of Science and Technology for the People, Philippines and Kalikasan found that river waters are now unsafe for agriculture, irrigation and human consumption and this has led to reduced yields from irrigated crops, reduced fish stocks and a high incidence of plant and animal diseases.

Losing access to land leaves the community with severely reduced agricultural income and limited the ability of residents to grow their own rice.

“It is clear that communities in and around Didipio have long opposed OceanaGold’s mine, and that they continue to oppose it. It is also clear that OceanaGold has ignored community opposition and, instead of engaging broadly with the community, has committed serious human rights violations,” Morrison said.

“ANCoMP is concerned that OceanaGold’s misleading statements are being used to push for the renewal of their licence to once again force its unwanted mine on the people of Didipio. We are also concerned that OceanaGold is misleading the market, their shareholders and the Australian public.”

ANCoMP is calling on OceanaGold to correct their misleading statements, and withdraw its renewal application. It is also calling on the Australian government and regulatory authorities to investigate OceanaGold and take appropriate action to ensure it is meeting corporate social responsibility standards.

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Featured image: OceanaGold’s mine at Didipio. Photo: @OceanaGold via Twitter

Managing Everest’s Waste Problem

April 26th, 2021 by Alton C Byers

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The Problem

The accumulation of solid waste in the world’s high mountain camping sites, base camps, and high camps has been a chronic problem facing alpine ecosystems since mountaineering first became popular in the 1850s. The problem has further intensified with the steady acceleration of trekking and mountaineering tourism in the past four decades.

The issue of garbage at Everest base camp has made headlines in the international press nearly every spring since the early 1970s. Dozens of ‘Everest Clean Up Expeditions’ have been launched since then, some legitimate, others a way for climbers to pick up a few tin cans and spend the rest of the season climbing.

More organised efforts of the Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee (SPCC) began some 10 years ago. Camp garbage got much international media coverage in May of 2019, along with the now-famous and viral photos of Everest climbers waiting in line below the summit.

Rarely, however, has the issue of waste management in villages within the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ) and main trekking routes been part of the international dialogue or concern.

As tourist numbers continued to rise pre-Covid (more than 60,000 in 2019, not counting support staff) unsightly and unhealthy landfills have become a common sight near villages and lodges. A recent study by the Sagarmatha Next project reported that as of the 2017 sampling season, there were 58 active open landfill pits within the SNPBZ (Figure 1).

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Featured image: Typical garbage pit outside of a village, usually out of sight of the main trekking trail. Landfills are particularly problematic in the alpine zone above 4,000m, where decomposition processes are much slower than those at lower, warmer and more humid environments. Photo: ALTON C BYERS

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Changes are taking place in Australian foreign policy. The country is tending towards a tougher stance in defense of Western interests and plans to cease important strategic ties with China and other nations not aligned to the West. While this type of stance is expected from a country with strong historical ties to Western powers, such as Australia, it is possible that, in the context of the emergence of a multipolar world, such radical measures will harm Australia’s own interests.

The Australian federal government intervened in an abusive way in the autonomy of the states last Wednesday, by unilaterally canceling four international agreements that the state of Victoria had with other countries. The agreements canceled by the Australian government were: a memorandum of understanding between Victoria and the Chinese State with the promise of mutual work on road infrastructure for the Belt and Road Initiative; the mutual promise to create a working group to improve bilateral diplomatic relations between China and Australia; another memorandum of understanding, signed with the Iranian Ministry of Labor in 2004, seeking cooperation on labor issues and; a scientific cooperation protocol with the Syrian Ministry of Higher Education, in force since 1999.

As we can see, two of these agreements were signed between Victoria and the Chinese government, having been in force since 2018 and 2019 with the aim of integrating the Australian state into Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative. Regardless of the ideological stance of the Australian government, the measure sounds unnecessarily aggressive, considering that the agreements benefited Australia economically without any prejudice to the ideological issue. The main criticisms that Australian experts have made against the agreements with China refer to the fact that the state of Victoria has not tried to negotiate better environmental, labor, and democratic conditions for cooperation. In other words, what the critics of the agreements say is that the state has not tried to impose Western values ​​on China in exchange for cooperation – which is absolutely understandable: the purpose of the agreements is mutual benefit, not ideological imposition.

The initiative for the cancellation was taken by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marise Payne, who believes in the total incompatibility between Australian diplomacy and economic cooperation with China, as evidenced by her words: “I consider these four arrangements to be inconsistent with Australia’s foreign policy or adverse to our foreign relations”. In fact, this Australian foreign policy orientation is not really new. The total alignment between Australia and the other Western powers has undermined bilateral relations with China since 2018, when Canberra vetoed Chinese participation in the Australian 5G technology market, giving Western companies commercial priority. Shortly thereafter, with the start of the pandemic, Prime Minister Scott Morrison also made allegations of anti-scientific and xenophobic content when requesting investigations on the origin of the new coronavirus, suggesting at a possible artificial origin in China. Indeed, the Australian stance on China has been one of the most radical in the whole world, being a true frontal opposition. For example, few countries have adhered to Washington’s plans to undermine the Chinese technological market, which makes Canberra’s position a full and unrestricted support for the U.S. – support that, as we can see, was unaffected by the American presidential transition, showing an episode of automatic alignment.

China immediately responded to the Australian attitude by repudiating notes at the Embassy in Canberra, where it was said that: “This is another unreasonable and provocative move taken by the Australian side against China. (…) It further shows that the Australian government has no sincerity in improving China-Australia relations. (…) [This move] is bound to bring further damage to bilateral relations, and will only end up hurting itself”. No retaliatory measures have been taken by the Chinese government to date, but bilateral relations have evidently become more fragile and unstable. Chinese international praxis is not retaliatory, generally seeking only mutual economic benefits with the nations with which it makes agreements. Chinese ideology, although very strong in internal decision-making, is almost null when it comes to Beijing’s diplomacy. Therefore, it is possible that the Chinese government will only repudiate Australian action, without taking equivalent measures that further worsen ties.

The drop in ties between China and Australia will not affect Beijing so strongly as it will with Canberra, which will increasingly lose Chinese capital’s share in its economy. The Chinese are Australia’s largest trading partners, in addition to great scientific cooperation, with the majority of exchange students on Australian soil having Chinese nationality. Certainly, the stance of the federal government will also generate internal tensions as not all states are willing to give up their economic benefits in order to meet the ideological desires of the federal government. This is precisely the case in the state of Victoria, where, with the agreements, Labor Premier Dan Andrews had consented to China’s development and infrastructure initiatives as a way to bring Australia and the whole of Oceania closer to the integration between Asia, Europe and Africa promoted by Beijing. Victoria is a real pillar of the Australian economy, being the second richest state in the country. A crisis of interest between Victoria and Canberra will seriously undermine any Australian national plan.

Still, it is important to note that Australia is part of the RCEP, which should mean a greater willingness to negotiate with Beijing, despite political antagonism, but Morrison’s liberal government is obstinate in its hostile stance. It is possible that new measures will emerge against China, Iran, and Syria. But Beijing remains the biggest target.

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Featured image is from InfoBrics

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Beijing says it will “respond firmly and forcefully” if Canberra fails to reverse its decision to cancel two deals agreed between China and the Australian state of Victoria as relations between the two countries continue to simmer.

“Australia says it wants to open up cooperation with China and increase our high-level dialogue, but it says one thing and does another,” foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a press briefing.

“The Australian side’s actions this time have again shown that they are not genuine in wanting to improve China-Australia relations,” he said, urging Canberra to “immediately repeal its incorrect decision”. Australia’s Defence Minister Peter Dutton said on Thursday that foreign affairs were an issue for the federal government and that Canberra was concerned about “state governments that enter into compacts with the [Chinese] Communist Party that are against our national interests”.

“We can’t allow these sort of compacts, these sort of arrangements and friendships to pop up because they’re used for propaganda reasons, and we’re just not going to allow that to happen,” he said.

The Belt and Road Initiative – China’s plan to boost interconnectivity and trade – encompasses infrastructure developments around the word but has been criticised by some as forcing host nations into a debt trap, a charge Beijing rejects.

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Featured image: Canberra has cancelled a belt and road deal agreed between Victoria’s Premier Daniel Andrews and China’s ambassador to Australia Cheng Jingye in 2018. Photo: Handout/SCMP

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A 2015 study by US scientist Jenna Jambeck revealed six out of 11 Southeast Asian countries are among the top 20 countries to have mismanaged their plastic wastes.

Indonesia ranks second, followed by the Philippines (third), Vietnam (fourth), Thailand (sixth), Malaysia (eighth) and Myanmar (17th).

Their combined marine plastic pollution accounted for 1.4-3.54 million metric tonnes (MT) per year, out of 8-12 million MT globally.

Mismanaged plastic waste derived from nine ASEAN countries.

Located between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, the ASEAN countries need to manage not just their own plastic waste, but also waste from other sources, either neighbouring countries or the oceans.

Having said that, we call for a collaborative effort from the ASEAN countries to tackle global marine plastic waste issues.

What has ASEAN done so far?

In 2019, the issue of marine debris as a transboundary issue was in the spotlight at the ASEAN special ministerial meeting in Bangkok, Thailand. Delegates of the ten ASEAN members attended.

The high-level meeting encouraged countries to set up action plans, at national and regional levels, to tackle this issue. However, in 2019, ASEAN member states launched ASEAN Framework of Action on Marine Debris as an optimistic way forward but needs to be translated into concrete regional plan of action through a legally binding mechanism with clear milestones and stakeholder roles.

At a national level, several countries have come up with their own plans to reduce plastics on land.

But there has been no specific plan to regulate marine plastic waste at a regional level. Each nation seems to have its own policy to manage waste in its territory.

In Malaysia, the government has already imposed a ban on non-biodegradable plastics. The Thai government is actively discussing the possibility of a tax on waste.

Other countries, such as Singapore and Vietnam, have already declared national commitments to tackle marine plastic waste.

Indonesia is currently enhancing waste recycling technology and developing garbage-collecting vessels.

Seagull observing food packaging.

Marine plastic can harm animals in the oceans and coastal areas. (Source: pixabay)

In addition to each nation’s waste policy, countries in ASEAN should set up a regional action plan comprising common actions to reduce plastics in the oceans.

To ensure its effectiveness, we recommend these actions should be monitored and reported in the ASEAN high-level meeting as the ASEAN countries do not only receive waste from their own territories, but also from other countries in the world.

While the region, dominated by highly populated developing nations, is still struggling to reduce plastic wastes on land, they also need to solve the problem of marine waste from neighbouring countries transported by the winds and currents to their coastal areas.

A regional action plan could strengthen the ASEAN legacy on marine plastic and provide a model for global action.

 

We recommend collaboration between ASEAN nations to enhance waste-recycling technology. This is very important because our wastes are different from those of European countries or the US.

With strong partnerships and management, this technology could be available to manage waste in the region’s oceans.

The collaboration, between governments, private sectors, NGOs and universities, should include:

  • effective legal instruments
  • management measures based on monitoring and assessment
  • a transition to a circular economy
  • improved waste-management infrastructure
  • support for public-private partnerships.

We also recommend increased funding for research on marine debris as well as ensuring policies and regulations are based on this research.

Aims for ocean health

Marine debris strongly relates to ocean health, but also to our own health.

It could take up to hundreds of years for plastics, from the largest (macro-debris), small (micro-debris), to the smallest (nano-debris), to decompose.

They can potentially spread diseases and invasive species, harmful to marine biota, ecosystems and also humans through food chains.

Hence, addressing this issue is important as we are also aiming to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including sustainable consumption and production, climate change and partnerships for sustainable development.

To achieve these targets, we must address the main challenges of marine plastic debris in ASEAN nations.

Last but not least, we need to improve public behaviour through education on waste, which is at concerning levels, as can easily be seen on the roads, waterways, rivers and coastlines.

Marine plastic debris is a complex problem and its impact portrays the characteristics of a society, civilisation and a country.

By taking action together, we hope to save the plant and animal life of marine ecosystems and improve the ocean’s health.

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 is a Lecturer and Marine Reseacher, Universitas Padjadjaran

 is an Engagement Specialist for National Plastic Action Partnership, World Resources Institute

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In view of the standoff between the Indian and Chinese armies, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India had requested Russia to expedite the delivery of S-400 air defence system. Technically it was not possible.

Later this year, Russia is going to deliver the first regimental set of S-400 Triumf ‘SA-21 Growler’ air defence systems. Sources have confirmed to Financial Express Online, “Though specific month or date has been confirmed yet, the Russian side is going to deliver the first set later this year.”

Financial Express Online had reported earlier quoting Russian officials about the delivery of the first set, in later 2021. In view of the standoff between the Indian and Chinese armies, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India had requested Russia to expedite the delivery of S-400 air defence system. Technically it was not possible.

Why?

Because technically there are different stages including the technology-related stages of production, acceptance and transfer of equipment.

What is India expected to get?

Both countries have inked a $ 5.43 billion contract. This contract is for the S-400 Triumf ‘SA-21Growler’, which is long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. This system is for the Indian Air Force (IAF) and will help in further enhancing the air defence (AD). And India will get five Triumf regimental kits from Russia.

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Featured image is from Sputnik/ Sergey Malgavko