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In view of the standoff between the Indian and Chinese armies, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India had requested Russia to expedite the delivery of S-400 air defence system. Technically it was not possible.

Later this year, Russia is going to deliver the first regimental set of S-400 Triumf ‘SA-21 Growler’ air defence systems. Sources have confirmed to Financial Express Online, “Though specific month or date has been confirmed yet, the Russian side is going to deliver the first set later this year.”

Financial Express Online had reported earlier quoting Russian officials about the delivery of the first set, in later 2021. In view of the standoff between the Indian and Chinese armies, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), India had requested Russia to expedite the delivery of S-400 air defence system. Technically it was not possible.

Why?

Because technically there are different stages including the technology-related stages of production, acceptance and transfer of equipment.

What is India expected to get?

Both countries have inked a $ 5.43 billion contract. This contract is for the S-400 Triumf ‘SA-21Growler’, which is long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. This system is for the Indian Air Force (IAF) and will help in further enhancing the air defence (AD). And India will get five Triumf regimental kits from Russia.

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India may build new coal-fired power plants as they generate the cheapest power, according to a draft electricity policy document seen by Reuters news agency, despite growing calls from environmentalists to deter use of coal.

Coal’s contribution to electricity generation in India fell for the second straight year in 2020, marking a departure from decades of growth in coal-fired power.

Still, the fuel accounts for nearly three-fourths of India’s annual power output.

Environmental activists have long rallied against India adding new coal-fired capacity.

Solar and wind energy prices are falling to record lows, which would help the world’s third-largest greenhouse gas emitter cut emissions.

US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry this month said India was “getting the job done on climate, pushing the curve,” as he began talks with government leaders aimed at cutting carbon emissions faster to slow global heating.

But a 28-page February draft of the National Electricity Policy (NEP) 2021 – which has not been made public – showed India may add new coal-fired capacity, though it recommended tighter technology standards to reduce pollution.

“While India is committed to add more capacity through non-fossil sources of generation, coal-based generation capacity may still be required to be added in the country as it continues to be the cheapest source of generation,” the NEP draft read.

All future coal-based plants should only deploy so-called “ultra super critical” less polluting technologies “or other more efficient technology”, it added.

Cabinet approval needed

State-run NTPC Ltd, India’s top electricity producer, said in September it will not acquire land for new coal-fired projects. Private firms and many run by states across the country have not invested in new coal-fired plants for years saying they were not economically viable.

A source with direct knowledge said a government panel of various power sector experts and officials will discuss the draft and could make changes before seeking cabinet approval.

India’s Power Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sunday.

The draft document also proposed trade of renewable energy in day-ahead markets, creating separate tariffs for electric vehicle charging stations and privatising electricity distribution companies.

Alternate sources 

The NEP 2021 is India’s first attempt at revising its electricity policy enacted in 2005, when the country produced negligible renewable energy.

Experts say phasing in renewable energy sources and phasing out conventional sources such as coal and natural gas rapidly could lead to instability in the electricity grid, potentially causing blackouts.

While suggesting flexible use of coal-fired and natural gas-fired power to ensure grid stability in the coming years, the draft policy lists promoting clean power as its primary objective.

The policy draft suggested expediting adoption of “cost effective” pumped hydro storage to support the electricity grid, adding that only 4.8 gigawatts (GW) of a potential 96.5 GW of pumped storage capacity has been developed so far.

The policy also recommends compensating natural gas-fired plants for operating at reduced efficiency to ensure grid stability, and for suffering higher wear and tear due to fluctuations in generation.

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India: What We Can Learn from the Farmers’ Protests

April 20th, 2021 by Ruchira Talukdar

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Narendra Modi’s government hurriedly passed three agricultural laws in September, without allowing for public consultation or parliamentary scrutiny.

The “farm laws” introduce deregulation and facilitate large corporations into the sector with the stated intent of “modernising systems” and “helping farmers realise better prices”.

The laws weaken state control over pricing and sale of food crops by allowing corporate retailers to directly buy from and enter into pre-agreed contracts with farmers, bypassing government marketing boards set up to ensure fair prices. They deregulate crop storage by allowing private traders to stockpile and removing restrictions meant to avoid speculation and inflation.

Farmers’ agitation against the three anti-farmer and pro-corporation laws crossed the 100-day mark in early March. In a definitive moment of the resistance, when the Modi government blocked peaceful marches to New Delhi by digging trenches and fixing nails and concertina wires, farmers responded by planting flowers and sowing crops, demonstrating a firm resilience in the face of repression.

The movement is defined by caste, gender and class solidarities. It has made a global impression, with celebrities like Rihanna and climate activist Greta Thunberg extending their support. International protests supporting the movement have been led by the Punjabi Sikh community in Canada, the United States, Briatin, Australia and New Zealand.

Through these various dynamics, the anti-farm-laws protests have set new milestones for social movement politics in India.

Farmers versus farm laws

The farm laws could pave the way for the dismantling of government agricultural markets, under which state-based marketing boards purchase surplus wheat and rice produce from farmers at guaranteed minimum support prices (MSPs).

The laws ignore the long history of well-knit relations between farmers and commission agents or small private traders. They assume that large corporations will ensure better prices especially for small farmers – who cultivate two hectares or less and make up 85% of the farming economy — by allowing them to sell their produce directly.

But studies from the state of Bihar where government markets were scrapped in the mid-2000s indicate that, “farmers (were) left at the mercy of traders who unscrupulously fix(ed) lower prices for agricultural produce”.

Inadequate market facilities and institutional arrangements resulted in low price realisations and price instabilities under free-marketisation in Bihar and led to farmers’ distress.

The current laws also disable rights to legal recourse. These so-called reforms can disproportionately disadvantage the small farmers they purport to support, by exposing them to price fluctuations, exploitation by large retailers too powerful to bargain with, and leaving them without the ability or means to seek justice.

Lastly, the laws pose a risk to federalism as enshrined in the Constitution.

In response, more than 400 local, state and national farmers’ and agricultural workers’ unions have unanimously demanded the Modi government repeal the three laws, set profitable MSPs on all crops, and legally guarantee that government markets and procurement from farmers at set MSPs will continue.

Protests

While opposition has come from across India, Punjab and Haryana — two northern states with a majority farming-dependent rural population, where well-established government markets have ensured sustainable crop prices since the Green Revolution in the 1970s — have become the face of the anti-farm-laws protests.

After three months of localised opposition and failed negotiations with the centre, farmers escalated their resistance through a Dilli Chalo (March to Delhi) campaign last November, under the umbrella of the United Farmers’ Front.

Thousands of protestors stayed in makeshift camps fashioned from tents and parked tractors at border points to Delhi — at Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur. Through the intensifying winter, these previously unheard of locations came to be known as sites of historic resistance to neoliberalism.

The participation of socio-economically marginalised groups in the protests — such as landless Dalits(lower caste) whose livelihoods depend on casual labour in government markets — indicates that historic caste and power conflicts are dissolving and various agrarian communities are forging common ground in response to sweeping neoliberalisation.

The prominence of women (considered agriculture’s invisible workforce) and Indigenous Adivasi peasants in protests throughout India add other critical dimensions to the movement’s intersectionality.

Yet another historic dimension is characterised by the movement’s unity with industrial workers protesting the Modi government’s new labour codes introduced to facilitate ease of business. The new codes were also controversially legislated around the same time as the farm laws.

Coinciding with India’s Constitution Day, on November 26, workers unions joined farmers and agricultural workers in the world’s biggest general strike: across India more than 250 million workers and millions of farmers protested both sets of laws in a demonstration of Kisan Mazdoor Ekta (farmer-worker unity).

The strikes also raised concerns around rising unemployment and prices and the lack of income-support in a sinking Indian economy. This was followed by another joint national strike on December 8.

The national anti-farm-laws movement has grown in size and significance since then. Taking into account the governments’ crackdown on dissent, on December 10, World Human Rights Day, farmers called for the release of all civil rights activists, academics, lawyers and intellectuals imprisoned on trumped-up charges under draconian laws.

Adani

Farmers confronted crony capitalism by labelling them “Adani and Ambani laws” after India’s richest industrialists close to Modi and called for a boycott of their products.

The Adani Group in particular is poised to control the market once the laws take effect.

The Supreme Court made an uncharacteristic intervention in January, designed to thwart the movement. Instead of ruling on the laws’ constitutional validity, it suspended the implementation of the farm laws and attempted to mediate the dispute. Farmers rejected the Supreme Court’s process outright.

On January 26, Indian Republic Day, farmers symbolically reclaimed democracy by staging an alternative tractor parade to the national capital.

Their innumerable protests used well-worn tactics of peaceful resistance such as rail and road blockades and Chakka Jam where convoys of tractors blocked highways.

A prominent youth leadership emerged from the protests and proved crucial in forging anti-caste and farmer-worker solidarity. Observers described the sites of Ghazipur, Tikri and Singhu as a “festival of democracy” reminiscent of the anti-Citizenship Amendment-Act (anti-CAA) movement in 2019 at Shaheen Bagh in east Delhi (and around India).

These sites witnessed a flourishing of revolutionary songs, dance and Punjabi poetry. Protesters builtmakeshift libraries, a school, gym and kitchens where they cooked Langar community meals for hundreds daily. Foot massages and yoga sessions were offered for weary protesters.

The Sikh community that dominates Punjab’s farming landscape has a proud history of land resistance. The community is also defined by a history of religious oppression and resistance; the most recent anti-Sikh pogrom following the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1984 still brings memories of terror and vulnerability.

Their past experiences have shaped an active distaste for the Modi government’s Hindu nationalist project. The passing of blatantly pro-corporate laws by a Hindu-nationalist government triggered political alarm bells and compelled the Sikh farming community to fight for their livelihoods and future.

Overseas, Sikhs who retain strong ties to their lands and families in Punjab supported the Indian movement by urging their respective governments to speak out and leading protests to draw global attention.

In Canada, where the Sikh community is politically influential, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau supported the peaceful Indian resistance and expressed concern over the use of water cannons, tear gas and other violent tactics to restrain marching farmers.

Crackdown

By February, farm leaders had met with the Modi government eleven times but had still not been able to get their demand for a repeal of the laws accepted. By this time the government started a civil society wide crackdown centred on the anti-farm-laws mobilisation.

Following the disruptive hoisting of the Nishan Sahib (Sikh) flag by some groups at India’s Republic Day celebrations on January 26 and the ensuing clashes with the police — which some farm leaders have called a conspiracy designed to smear their peaceful actions — more than 200 farmers, journalists and activists were detained and several charged under anti-terrorism and sedition laws. Water, electricity and Internet were cut off at protest sites, leaving thousands stranded without basic essentials.

The government went on the offensive in a bid to silence international and social media support for the farmers. Twitter, which took a tough stand against Donald Trump, struggled between defending free speech and complying with an Indian government order to block accounts sympathetic to the protests.

It eventually suspended more than 500 accounts, but refused to block those belonging to media, journalists, activists and politicians.

The government’s propaganda machinery alleged that the protesters were acting under the influence of India’s rival Pakistan and pro-Khalistan (separatist) Sikh organisations based overseas. It raised the bogey of the “foreign hand” by claiming that a social media tool kit that Thunberg tweeted while supporting the farmers was an international conspiracy to create disharmony in India.

While police arrested young activists for merely distributing the toolkit, Modi criticised overseas activists and warned against the “Foreign Destructive Ideology”.

But such attacks only served to strengthen support for the movement. The pleas of farm leaders following the attacks generated fresh mass meetings and new political solidarity in North India.

Globally, celebrities and activists took to twitter to express solidarity. Global appeals for justice were made for youth activists tortured in custody for protesting the farm laws and those arrested for circulating the toolkit. These attacks brought international political criticism, generating a debate in the British Parliament on press freedom and protesters’ safety in India.

In Australia, while the Scott Morrison government maintained a selective silence on India’s plummeting democratic condition, opposition Labor and Green parliamentarians spoke against the Indian state’s violence against democratic dissent.

Social commentators pointed out that the Modi government had finally encountered a peoples’ resistance it could not suppress with strongarm tactics, or discredit with its propaganda machinery that includes a large section of the mainstream media.

Lessons

This movement reflects a political turn through the bridging of historic class, caste and gender divisions; it indicates rising global concern for people’s struggles in India; and finally, the manner in which the Indian government passed the farm laws and supressed dissent serves as a reminder of how neoliberalism can compromise India’s democratic process.

These protests offer lessons for agrarian movements resisting marketisation worldwide. The movement’s dynamics help in understanding the ramifications of free-marketisation under high social and economic inequality, and how affected communities combine age-old tools of resistance with solidarity to sustain peaceful and steadfast protests against the new economic order.

India’s “dance of democracy” around neoliberalisation is not new. Since the early 1990s, affected peoples’ movements have resisted sweeping market reforms across various sectors that threatened their lands and livelihoods, often compelling governments to pass ameliorative legislation.

Farmers’ long marches in 2018 and 2019 demanded improvements in support prices for crops, drought relief and land rights. The current movement continues and surpasses the previous protests in significance.

This year, the Modi government pushed through several controversial market reforms as “COVID recovery measures”, while civil society’s ability to democratically dissent was curtailed under lockdown restrictions.

The extent and persistence of the farmers’ mobilisation demonstrates what is at stake for the millions who feed the nation, and ultimately for food security.

Modi’s systematic attack on human rights and religious freedom is also not lost on the world. The movement has come to signify a democratic resistance to crony capitalism, communalism and authoritarianism.

With the protests now in their fifth month, farmers are bracing for a scorching summer after facing a harsh winter that claimed more than 200 lives. The world can continue to show support by following their ongoing struggle for justice.

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Ruchira Talukdar is an independent researcher and writer on climate and environmental politics and social movements based in Melbourne. Her Doctoral thesis compared the politics and social resistance on climate and coal in India and Australia. She regularly writes for publications in India and Australia.

Featured image: Indian farmers have been protesting for more than five months against new laws favouring big agribusiness. Photo: Wikimedia Commons CC0 1.0

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On his first official visit to China as Malaysia’s foreign minister, Hishammuddin Hussein sought to exude a touch of personal charisma. In a live televised press conference on April 2, he referred to his Chinese counterpart Minister Wang Yi as “elder brother,” speaking in rehearsed Mandarin as he beamed with an ear-to-ear smile.

Appearing surprised by the remark and even visibly uncomfortable, Wang responded by saying: “We are brothers.” Chinese social media users widely interpreted Hishammuddin’s remark, which was broadcast on state media, as a show of Malaysia’s respect and deference to China.

Back at home, however, Hishammuddin was widely criticized for a perceived diplomatic faux pas. Against the backdrop of China’s increasingly assertive stance in the South China Sea, where the two countries have competing claims, the foreign minister was widely seen as kowtowing to Beijing.

For many Malaysians, the gaffe revived anxieties about rising Chinese influence in Southeast Asia and raised new questions about the country’s foreign policy direction under Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, with the two sides having officially committed to deepening cooperation in the post-Covid-19 era.

Moreover, the irony of Hishammuddin, a politician from the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) who earlier in his career had pandered to ethnic Malay Muslims by vowing to defend their interests in relation to Malaysia’s own large ethnic Chinese community, striking such a cordial tone towards Beijing was not lost on many observers.

After being chided by Malaysian netizens, Hishammuddin took to Twitter to tamp down the controversy by implying he was merely practicing “Asian values” by showing respect to his senior Chinese counterpart. “Being respectful does not signify weakness,” he said, stressing that his country upheld an independent foreign policy.

But that explanation failed to assuage opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who demanded that Hishammuddin retract his comment and issue an apology to the country. Anwar said his remark signaled to the international community that “Malaysia’s orientation as a neutral nation is changing under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government.”

The Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) president voiced concerns that “allies and adversaries alike” may attempt to take advantage of Muhyiddin’s weak political position and razor-thin governing majority to seek opportunities “to extract benefits in their engagements with Malaysia” at the expense of national interests, security and sovereignty.

Anwar, who analysts generally view as favoring the United States, went as far to claim that Hishammuddin’s remark seemed to reflect Malaysia’s status as a “foreign puppet,” telegraphing an uneasiness with China shared by many across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), particularly among political camps that lean more toward Washington than Beijing.

While the US has traditionally been an important player in Malaysian foreign policy and a key hedge against an ascendant China, that balancing act began to shift during the Donald Trump presidency, which saw China-ASEAN trade and economic relations deepen amid Washington’s trade and tech wars against Beijing.

Prior to Muhyiddin taking power, Malaysia had already been a key node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and host to its largest planned foreign infrastructure project, the multibillion-dollar East Coast Rail Link (ECRL). But with a shaky grip on power and Covid-19 battering the economy, Muhyiddin has little alternative but to lean toward Beijing, analysts say.

“In the case of Muhyiddin, because of the fact that he came to power through a backdoor government and also because of Covid-19 – the economy has stalled, foreign investment has stalled, everything has stalled – he really has no choice,” said James Chin, director of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute.

“It’s obvious that no other country has the financial resources to invest as deeply in Malaysia. Malaysia is also very careful about how it projects its image. Although it has tried to appear neutral in terms of its actions, if you look carefully, they’re moving closer and closer to China,” he said. “China has also deepened its investments in Malaysia.”

Indeed, the diplomatic incident overshadowed what was otherwise a constructive two-day visit that saw the two sides sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the establishment of a high-level committee for post-Covid-19 cooperation that aims to provide “policy guidance for all aspects” of relations including BRI projects.

Plans to establish a Malaysian production base for Chinese-made coronavirus vaccines was also announced. The Southeast Asian nation has so far procured jabs produced by China’s Sinovac Biotech and CanSino Biologics, both of which have underperformed in clinical trials and lagged behind Western-made vaccines Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna in real-world results.

Malaysia announced earlier this month that it will receive 3.5 million doses of the single-shot CanSino vaccine that the company says is around 50-65% effective after one to six months of inoculation. Malaysia plans to use the shot mainly in rural areas and places where it is difficult for recipients to receive double injections.

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin receives a first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at a government clinic in Putrajaya. Photo: Malaysia Department of Information / Maszuandi Adnan

The two sides also agreed in principle to the mutual recognition of digital “vaccine passports” that will eventually facilitate travel and generate stronger winds for Malaysia’s economic sails. China’s economy is firmly recovering, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising a record 18.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2021, according to recently released government data.

A trade breakthrough was clinched when Beijing – Malaysia’s largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years – agreed to allow imports of Malaysian red palm oil, which had previously failed to meet China’s color specification standards. Malaysia’s economy relies heavily on exports of the commodity.

“Sino-Malaysian relations have generally remained stable over a prolonged period of time, such that their trade volume has consistently stayed at the top of all in Southeast Asia,” said Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. “The two countries value pragmatic interactions more than ideological differences.”

Muhyiddin’s pragmatism was on display when, shortly after Hishammuddin’s visit to China, his administration announced that it had agreed to an upward price revision for the proposed ECRL, a 14% increase that will bring the total expenses up to 50 billion ringgit (US$12.1 billion), the latest alteration of terms for a mega-project that had once been a bilateral sore point.

The ECRL was first launched in 2016 under the Najib Razak administration, which had elevated economic and defense ties with China, seen in its purchase of Chinese-made warships for the Malaysian navy. But the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal turned rising Chinese influence in the country into a political lightning rod.

Mahathir Mohamad took power under Pakatan Harapan (PH) in May 2018 after defeating Najib and UMNO at the ballot box. He rode a wave of fury and misgivings over Najib’s alleged corruption and shady dealings with China amid suspicions, later substantiated, that he had siphoned off money from BRI projects funded by Chinese loans to pay 1MDB debts.

Mahathir shifted the tone of relations by warning of the risks of Chinese “debt traps” and what he saw as Beijing’s “new version of colonialism.” His administration initially canceled the ECRL, though in April 2019 it agreed to a revised proposal with a shortened route and total construction costs reduced by a third to 44 billion ringgit ($10.6 billion).

The ECRL’s latest revision under Muhyiddin, made on the basis that it enhances the overall viability of the mega-project, extends the line to 665 kilometers after it was shortened to 640 km from an initial 688 km. Services are due to commence in 2027 despite changes to the route – that is, unless a future Malaysian government opts to revise it again.

A map showing the ECRL’s previous proposed route. Source: Facebook

Muhyiddin’s administration has developed closer China-Malaysia ties despite lingering issues involving 1MDB-linked fugitives. Last year, Malaysia’s Inspector-General of Police publicly claimed that wanted Malaysian businessman Low Taek Jho, or Jho Low, is living in Macau under the apparent protection of Chinese law enforcement authorities.

At the time, China’s embassy in Kuala Lumpur strongly rejected the claims as “groundless and unacceptable.” Responding to questions about the allegations made by Malaysia’s police chief in Parliament last year, Hishammuddin approached the issue with caution, stating that he “did not know if he (Low) is truly in China.”

As an opposition politician in 2018, Hishammuddin publicly offered to help Mahathir’s government find Low, acknowledging at the time his personal connections to China built through his experience liaising with Chinese officials as transport minister following the Malaysia Airlines MH370 disaster and as defence minister under Najib’s administration.

Chin told Asia Times that the foreign minister’s “elder brother” remark appeared to strike a chord precisely because “Malaysians already know that Hishamuddin is too close to the Chinese, and that Malaysia’s foreign policy is too much aligned with China’s interests. He merely confirmed what they were already thinking.”

But not everyone perceived his remarks as negative or indicative of subservience to Beijing. Some analysts argue that Hishamuddin’s personal brand of diplomacy has helped to boost Chinese goodwill towards Malaysia, putting the country on a better footing to achieve national goals.

“Broadly speaking, those Malaysians with vested interests in dealing with China tended to view the comment very positively and as a matter of fact, indeed hopefully heralding even closer collaboration. This is especially so during a period of economic hardship,” said Oh. “Many of those who are Chinese-speaking view the comment rather positively.”

Amrita Malhi, a research fellow at Australian National University, believes the episode hit a nerve because it “exposed the contrast between how many Malaysian politicians address ethnic Chinese Malaysians,” who make up around 24% of the total population, “and how they address the People’s Republic of China.”

She pointed to a 2006 speech Hishamuddin gave at UMNO’s Youth General Assembly for which he was later forced to apologize. “He waved a keris (dagger), and several other delegates referred to UMNO using it to defend Malay Muslims from Malaysia’s minorities. So, his dramatic change of tone in this context has attracted some derision.”

Malhi said remarks from Anwar and other opposition politicians were aimed at “portraying the government as hypocritical amateurs, who, for all their campaign rhetoric aimed at strengthening Malay Muslim rights, are unable to maintain Malaysia’s historical non-alignment in the face of China’s rising power.”

“Pakatan Harapan’s 2018 election campaign made artful use of this apparent contrast, arguing that while UMNO was pointing at Malaysian Chinese as the main threat to Malay power, it was also growing increasingly reliant on China’s Belt and Road projects to fill the fiscal hole created by 1MDB,” she added.

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Abstract

The world’s electric power system continues to be a principal source of carbon emissions, comparable to transport and such industries as steel and cement. Intense debate surrounds the issue of the pace at which it is greening. In this paper we offer a precise definition of greening as a rising proportion of electric power sourced from water, wind and sun (WWS), since these are all fundamentally renewable. Using the latest data from the BP Energy Review as well as national and regional sources, we demonstrate that by 2019 the EU-28 had reached a proportion of electricity generated from WWS of 34%, followed by China at 27%, Japan at 19% and the US at 17%. Moreover, the EU-28 achieved the fastest pace of transition, increasing its WWS-share of electricity generated from 20% in 2010 to 34% in 2019, or a 14% green shift in a decade. Over the same period, China’s green shift in power generation was 10%, while that of Japan was 9% (all achieved in the decade following the Fukushima disaster) and the US at an 7% shift. The IEA has just issued a report revealing that globally renewable sources of energy account for 29% of electricity generated in 2020, up 2% on 2019 levels.

In this paper we examine the performance of China in greatest detail, since it is now the world’s largest burner of coal, operates the world’s largest electric power system, and is responsible for the highest levels of carbon emissions. We make the case that China has overall goals of decarbonization and dematerialization (i.e. using less material per unit of GDP), where the former goal is met by the shift to renewable sources of energy and the latter by the shift towards urban mining and the circular economy. Based on newly published data from the China Energy Council, we update our previous analyses of China’s energy choices, looking for the green shoots in an otherwise black energy system. China’s electric power system, now the largest in the world, continues to burn a lot of coal – nearly 4 billion tonnes in 2020, a 1% decrease on the 2019 total. But within this black power economy the green shoots are increasingly significant. We show that the proportion of China’s electric power generation sourced from water, wind and sun (WWS) by 2020 reached 27%, up from 17% a decade earlier – a 10% green shift in a decade. In terms of generating capacity the figures for China are even more striking. In 2020 China’s generating capacity sourced from WWS reached 41%, up from 25% in 2011, or a 16% green shift in capacity in 10 years. At this rate of a 1.6% green shift in generating capacity per year, China’s electric power system would be more green than black by 2026, with widespread repercussions, for China and the world. We put these data in their international comparative perspective, and in the perspective that China is electrifying its economy faster than any other major region. But the levels of carbon emissions continue to rise (reaching 13.5 billion tonnes carbon dioxide in 2020), with China’s leadership not predicting their peaking before 2030. So there is much to be done in terms of decarbonizing energy and electric power in particular. The wider significance of China’s green choices, in the context of its increasing assertiveness internationally, is discussed.

Introduction

The greening of the world’s major industries remains a matter of major concern, with attention focused on the sectors with the highest carbon emissions – electric power generation, transport (including shipping), and industrial sectors such as steel and cement. While the consumption of fossil fuels (coal in electric power generation, oil in transport and natural gas in industry) the absolute levels usually discussed conceal any underlying greening tendency in terms of an accelerating shift towards renewable sources. In this paper we offer a definition of greening of the electric power sector in terms of rising proportion of electric power sourced from water, wind and sun (WWS) – both in terms of electric power capacity and in terms of electricity generated. We focus on the level of electric power sourced from WWS, and the pace of the green shift, in terms of the total proportional shift over the past 10 years. Our interest is mainly focused on China, because it now has the largest electric power system in the world, and continues to burn the largest quantity of coal and emit the largest quantities of carbon (greenhouse gases). In this context, we wish to know whether the greening of China’s electric power system outweighs its blackening, and the pace at which this green shift is occurring.

First we examine the share of renewables (WWS) in total electric power generation, placing the EU-28, China, Japan and the US in comparative perspective. The data up to 2019 from the BP Statistical Review are given in Fig. 1, which we have prepared based on the data available.

Figure 1. Share of renewables in total electric power generation, by region, 2000-2019

Data: BP Energy Review

The global picture is dominated by the EU-28, which over the past 10 years has raised the proportion of electricity generated from WWS from 20% to very nearly 34% — or a 14% green shift in 10 years. The EU is followed by China, which reached 27% by 2019 (up from 17% in 2011, or a 10% green shift in the past decade). Then follows Japan which reached 19% by 2019 (a 9% shift), and the US at 17% (up from 10% a decade ago, a 7% shift).

At a global level, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has now just released its 2020 Global Energy Review, where electric power trends over the past 10 years are examined from the perspective of rising proportions of electric power from renewables and falling proportions from coal – as shown in our Fig. 2.1This is (we believe) the first time that the IEA has charted electric power trends in this way, clarifying the proportional rise in power sourced from renewables.

Figure 2. Global electric power generation, 2010 to 2020

Source: Authors, based on IEA Global Energy Review 2020

To summarise: In terms of our definition of greening, the world has witnessed an increase in electricity generation sourced from water, wind and sun reaching 29% by 2020, up from 20% a decade earlier (according to the IEA). The EU has reached the highest proportion of power sourced from WWS, and it is greening fastest – a 14% green shift in power generated in 10 years. China follows the EU at 27% of its power sourced from WWS, and with the greening proceeding at a rate of 10% green shift in the last 10 years, then Japan at a green shift of 9% and the US at 7%. The IEA source indicates that Chinese carbon emissions in 2020 (post-pandemic) exceed levels for 2019.

Regional shares

The EU overtook China to become the world’s greenest electric power system in 2009, and accelerated its transition, greening in the past decade from 20% electricity sourced from WWS to close to 34% — a 14% green shift in power generated in 10 years. At this rate it will take the EU another 20 years to raise its proportion of green power to 50% — a tipping point of enormous significance.

Japan too has been increasing the proportion of electricity sourced from WWS from 10% in 2010 to 19% by 2019 – or a 9% green shift in the past 10 years. This was accelerated by the shift away from nuclear power triggered by the Fukushima nuclear disaster on March 11, 2011; prior to Fukushima, there had been no increase in the proportion of electricity sourced from WWS in Japan for the previous decade. In 2019, Japan’s electric power generation reached 1.036 trillion kWh (1,036 TWh). Of this, thermal sources accounted for 71% (NG 35%, coal 32%, oil 4%), renewable (WWS) for 19%, and nuclear for 6%.

In the US thermal power generation has remained dominant, with nuclear also continuing to make a major contribution to GHG reduction. In the US, as shown in Figs. 3a and 3b, thermal (coal-fired) electricity generation dropped below that of nuclear power in 2020, giving the US a fresh aspect of decarbonization. NG remains the principal source of electricity, giving the following breakdown for the US.

Fig. 3a. Power Generation in the US, 2000 to 2020

Data source: EIA

Figure 3b. US net electricity generation by source, 1990 to 2020

Fig. 3a reveals that the US power generation system has reached a relatively stable level of 4,000 TWh over the past decade (compared with 7600 TWh in China – nearly double the US level), with the share of electricity generated from WWS sources reaching 19% by 2020 – compared with 27% for the case of China and 34% for the EU. In the US the share of electricity produced from thermal sources was around 63%, from nuclear sources 20% and the balance of 17% from WWS sources in 2019.2 Non-carbon sources of electricity in the US (nuclear + WWS) amount to 39%.

When we turn to China, we may view its performance in international comparative perspective. China has built an enormous power system to drive its expansion of manufacturing industry, now the largest in the world. Initially this was based largely on coal, with oil imports targeted at transport. China’s dependence on coal appears to have plateaued and is now falling slightly each year. Based on newly published data from the China Energy Council, in this article we update our previous analyses of China’s energy choices.3

Our fundamental chart (Fig. 4) reveals that China’s green shift in electric power generation has now lasted for 13 years of continuous change, since the year 2007. The newly updated chart reveals that in terms of electricity generated, the proportion of electricity generated from WWS sources has risen from 17% in 2011 to 27% in 2020, or a 10% green shift in 10 years. Over the 13-year span from 2007 to 2020, the green shift has been continuous, amounting to a green shift of 12% from WWS (up from 15% in 2007 to 27% in 2020).

The green shift in terms of electrical generating capacity is even more striking.4 In terms of generating capacity, China’s proportion of power capacity sourced from water, wind and sun (WWS) reached 41% in 2020, up from 20% in 2007 – or a 21% green shift in generating capacity over 13 years. This amounts to an average of 1.6% per year for the past 13 years. If continued at this rate (and all policy positions indicate that it will be) then China would reach a tipping point of 50% generating capacity sourced from WWS by 2026 at the latest.5 By that time China’s electric power system would be more green than black – a fundamental tipping point that would have ramifications throughout the economy.

Fig. 4. Greening of China’s electric power system, 1990 to 2020

Data source: CEC and NBS China

These are surprising results in themselves, considering that the Chinese electric power system is now the largest in the world. (China’s electric power generation in 2020 reached 7,623 TWh, compared with US total generation of 4,000 TWh.) What is even more remarkable is that these proportional green shifts have proven to be continuous over the last 13 years, overwhelming any reversion to coal-fired power particularly in recent years.

Nevertheless China’s carbon emissions continue to rise, indicating that the country’s decarbonization is not proceeding fast enough. China has clear energy goals of electrification of the economy and greening of its electric power system, combined with dematerialization in the sense that materials are increasingly sourced from circular flows (urban mining and recycling). The significance of these goals for China itself and for the world are now becoming clear to commentators, such as the international consultancy Wood Mackenzie.6

The detailed results for China’s power generation over the past 10 years are given in Table 1, updated to include results for 2020.

Table 1 China’s electric power sector, 2010 to 2020

1A. Installed Capacity (GW)

1B. Power Generation (TWh)

1C. Annual investment (CNY Billion)

Data Source: CEC and NBS

Table 1A reveals that China’s electric power system is still dominated by fossil fuels, particularly coal. In 2020 coal-fired power (thermal power) of 1,245 GW accounted for 57% of China’s electric capacity – but it has been decreasing at 1.5% per year and is unlikely to expand much in future. It can be expected to reach the 50% tipping point by 2025, and certainly before 2027. According to Yin Linlin, Director of the Power Fuel Division of CEC’s Department of Industrial Planning, Environment and Resources, while China is endeavouring to control the installed capacity of coal power below 1,250 GW, those of wind and solar will each exceed 400 GW by 2025, thus non-fossil energy installed capacity will account for nearly 50%.7 The total electric power generating system reached 2,200 GW (i.e. 2.2 TW) in 2020. In terms of new capacity added in 2020, coal-fired power (thermal power) accounted for 54 GW of new capacity, while hydro accounted for 14 GW, wind for 72 GW and solar for 48 GW – making an addition of 134 GW from WWS sources. So the new capacity added from WWS (green) sources at 134 GW was three times the capacity addition from thermal (black) sources.8 This is why we can say that the Chinese electric power system continues to green faster than it is blackening, and is doing so overwhelmingly from WWS sources.

Table 1 reveals that China has been expanding its reliance on nuclear power in the generation of electric power. In terms of electricity generated, nuclear power has increased from 75 TWh in 2010 to 366 TWh in 2020, or a fivefold increase over the decade. In terms of capacity addition, nuclear was increased from 11 GW in 2010 to 50 GW in 2020, or an increase of 450% over the decade. But the Table also reveals that nuclear is significantly overshadowed by WWS (green) as proportion of electric power. In terms of electricity generated, nuclear rose from 2% of electricity generated in 2010 to 5% in 2020, while in terms of capacity it was even less significant, rising from 1% of electric capacity in 2010 to 2% in 2020. At these levels, China looks to emulate the US, Japan and the EU in terms of reliance on nuclear – but in a way that fails to keep up with the faster rising proportion of green electric power.

Fig. 5 shows how China’s total power system has doubled in terms of capacity over the past decade (expanding from 966 GW in 2010 to 2200 GW (2.2 TW) in 2020, while continuing its relentless greening.

Fig. 5. China’s Installed Power Capacity 2010 vs 2020

Data Source: CEC and NBS

Total electric capacity sourced from WWS reached 905 GW by 2020 – which means that it can be anticipated to reach the milestone of 1000 GW (or 1 terawatt (TW)) within the next year. China would be the first major industrial country to reach terawatt level for green sources of power (WWS). The time to reach the second terawatt of green power can be anticipated to be much shorter than the time needed to reach this first terawatt – such is the nature of cumulative exponential expansion. These green targets are reinforced by the statement from China’s president, Xi Jinping, in December 2020 of new Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to reaching global climate targets, where China announced that wind and solar generating capacity combined would reach 1,200 GW (1.2 TW) by 2030.9 The data presented above would indicate that this fresh target is well within reach.

The data on investment provided in Table 1C replicate the same story of a continuous green shift. Investment in green sources of power reached RMB 431 billion in 2020 which at an exchange rate of 0.15 would translate to US$ 64.7 billion – allocated as RMB 108 bn for hydro, RMB 262 bn for wind and RMB 61 bn for solar. These totals far exceed the RMB 55 billion allocated to investment in thermal (coal-fired) sources – which translates to US$ 8.3 billion. The fact that investment in green sources in 2020 was about eight times investment in black sources (US$ 64.7 billion for green sources as compared with just $8.3 billion for black) is another strong indicator of the continuing green trend. The investment data also reveal a falling reliance on nuclear power, with investment falling from 16% of total investment in 2010 down to 12% in 2020.

Fig. 6 shows the rise in annual generating capacity increases over the past 30 years, and the relentless rise of capacity growth from WWS sources. Since 2016, WWS sources have constituted over 50% of the annual capacity addition. In 2020, the proportion of electric capacity added in the year attributed to WWS sources reached 71%.

Fig. 6. China’s annual capacity additions, 1991-2020

Data source: UN and CEC

Fig. 7 shows the electricity generated from all sources each year over the past 30 years, allowing for a comparison between electricity generated from thermal sources as compared with that generated from WWS sources, 1990 to 2020. Total electricity generated reached 7623 TWh (billion kWh) in 2020, with 5174 TWh coming from thermal sources and 2053 TWh coming from WWS sources. The RHS reveals that this generation of power from WWS sources now accounts for 27% of total electricity generated. This reveals what a huge struggle it has been for green power to overhaul black power in a colossal system experiencing rapid expansion like the Chinese.

Fig. 7. Annual power generation in China, 1990 to 2020

Data sources: CEC, NBS, World Bank

Next, fig. 8 on the coal-fired power system reveals just how enormous it continues to be. The coal-fired plants generated 5,174 TWh power in 2020. However, the total coal consumption is estimated to have dropped 0.8% down to 3.9 billion tons based on the data from January to October 2020.10 According to the preliminary accounting of National Bureau of Statistics of China, the share of coal in the total energy consumption decreased 1% from 2019 to 56.7% in 2020.11

Data Source: CEC, NBS and BP Energy Review

A different angle on China’s greening of its electric power system is its imports of fossil fuels, measured in tonnes, as shown in Fig. 9. In 2020 China was the world’s largest importer of oil (used mostly in transport) with natural gas imports growing marginally each year over the past five years. Coal imports have remained stable at just over 300 million tonnes imported in 2020. We have consistently viewed the high level of dependence of China on fossil fuel imports as one of the principal drivers of its green shift in electric power generation. The rise in fossil fuel imports gives rise to pressure to produce energy in China from manufactured devices, such as wind turbines, solar cells and energy storage devices like batteries, all of which involve electrification and are under domestic control. This is one of the factors leading to the creation of a quite different energy paradigm in China, one that departs from dependence on fossil fuels and instead enhances reliance on electrification and manufacturing.

Fig. 9. China’s imports of fossil fuels, 2010 to 2020

Data sources: UN and GACC

Carbon emissions

China’s greening of its electric power system has yet to be reflected in the data on its carbon emissions, which continue to rise, albeit in moderated fashion. Figure 10 on carbon emissions reveals the pattern over the past decade.

Figure 10. China and US: Emissions of carbon dioxide per year, 2010 to 2020

Data Source: Climate Action Tracker and World Bank

Emissions of carbon dioxide in billion tonnes per year (GtCO2/year) have increased from 10.9 GtCO2/year in 2010 to 13.5 GtCO2/year in 2020, revealing that China has yet to reach the critical turning point where carbon emissions start to decline. But the increases are falling, and this tipping point can be anticipated to be reached in the near future, and certainly earlier than the 2030 target specified by China’s leadership. During the same period, emissions of the US were in the range between 6.5 and 7 GtCO2/year. In terms of per capita emissions, China had figures just below 10 tons (8.2 tons in 2010 and 9.6 tons in 2020), which were less than 50% of the US levels throughout the decade.

Electrification

Finally we put these China data on the greening of electric power in the setting that China leads the world in the pace of its electrification. As shown in Fig. 11, China has been expanding its electrical power system as a proportion of its total energy consumption, substituting electrical energy for direct combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) in industry, transport, domestic use and other sectors as well. From a low base starting at around the year 2000 China has built its electrical power system to the point where it overtook the proportional electrified levels of the US and EU by around 2015 (reaching a proportion of 16%) and ultimately caught up with Japan by 2019 (reaching an electrification level of 18.5%) by the beginning of the 2020s. China now stands first in the proportion of its energy consumption supplied by electrical power. It is thus most open to greening through the contribution of power sourced from water, wind and sun. But the question remains: which part of the world is moving most rapidly in this greening direction?12

Figure 11. Share of electricity in total energy consumption, China, EU, US, Japan, 2000-2019

Data: BP Energy Review

The geopolitics of materials needed for the green shift in electric power

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently turned its attention towards the role of “critical raw materials” (CRMs) as the world economy gears up to an unprecedented green shift in 2021, after the pandemic year 2020. There are two issues involved. Firstly, there are raw materials needed for the operation of energy systems, where both thermal power systems and nuclear systems call for raw materials that have to be mined, and thereby set a limit to renewability – as contrasted with power generated based on water, wind and sun which are all continuously renewed. And secondly there are raw materials needed for the manufacture of green energy equipment (e.g. wind turbines, solar cells, batteries) as well as electrified transport (e.g. EVs and FCVs). It is the latter issue to which the IEA is drawing attention, promising a major review and report on the matter by May 2021.13 Of course of all the major regions China is least likely to be affected by these issues, given its dominance of supply of rare earths and other critical materials needed in manufacture of green technologies, and its progress in promoting recirculation of materials in high-tech industries, which is known in China as “urban mining”.14

The green shift and China’s rising international assertiveness

We cannot conclude this commentary on China’s green energy choices in comparative perspective without putting them in the context of the country’s increasing international assertiveness. China is now both seeking international leadership via its Belt and Road Initiative and its recent treaty with the EU even as it moves aggressively to enforce its territorial claims in the South China Sea. The steady expansion of its green power sector can be viewed as one element of its bid for international leadership which is threatened by its aggressive policies elsewhere.

Clearly it would be naïve to see China greening its energy system as an act of benevolence for the world community. Our argument is that China must be perceived as systematically proceeding to green its energy system because it views it as in its national interest to do so. More than other countries, China views a green energy system as one that reduces geopolitical tensions and enhances its energy security as well as drastically reducing carbon particulate pollution in its urban and industrial areas. It is therefore from China’s perspective worth pursuing as an end in itself. Pursuit of world leadership in greening is clearly recognized by China as one factor in achieving a strong position in building the industries that will dominate energy choices in the 21st century. It is also an aspect of the global economy where the US has abdicated leadership (especially under Trump). That China’s energy choices reduce global carbon emissions is a favorable by-product of China’s search for energy security and environmental clean-up.

Concluding remarks

The significance of the energy choices made by China lies in the fact that they reveal how China is inexorably swinging its economy behind greater and greater electrification, where the electric power system is being “fuelled” less and less proportionally by fossil fuels and more and more from renewable (WWS) sources. This decarbonization trend is complemented by a dematerialization trend where China increasingly sources its industrial materials from circular flows, i.e. urban mining and recycling. In this paper we are concerned to point to these trends, as green shoots of a green growth economy – without losing sight of the fact that China is still the world’s largest importer and user of fossil fuels and world’s largest consumer of industrial raw materials like iron ore, aluminium and copper. The significance of this for China is amplified by the fact that such sources are based on devices that are manufactured rather than on materials mined and drilled from the earth – on solar PV cells, wind turbines, batteries and their associated value chains and cost reductions based on associated learning curves. This is a trend that can be expected to continue.15 In the transport sector the same shift is leading to batteries and EVs and FCVs – all products of manufacturing, and all enjoying strong cost reductions associated with the learning curve. And within these segments themselves, solar PV cells are moving to new generations like eARC PV cells and wind turbines from onshore wind power to offshore wind power, where the turbines are mounted on platforms which also have to be manufactured. These newer generations of devices are all products of manufacturing and innovation, where China plays a key role as a leading patenter of new energy technologies. What is involved is a revolution in the energy system, from one based on extraction of fossil fuels (with their environmental and geopolitical hazards), to one based on manufacturing, complemented by the circulation of materials via recycling and urban mining. Of course the specialized material requirements of these green technological shifts are also significant, in terms of rare earths and other industrial materials like copper – where China’s innovations in the circular flow economy are helping to redress the balance.

The leadership of the EU in engineering a green shift in power generation, as demonstrated in this paper, shows how the opportunities are there for leading industrialized countries to stay one step ahead of China in terms of innovation and market capture. Commentaries such as the recent Wood Mackenzie report, Tectonic Shift (cited above) tend to regard China’s lead in low-carbon technologies as unassailable – but the fact of EU leadership in the green shift in electric power indicates that this is not the case.

Commentary on China’s energy choices continues to emphasize how its coal consumption remains the largest in the world, its carbon emissions continue to be the largest, while its imports of oil (and gas) have now reached the largest in the world, though in per capita terms the US holds an enormous lead in both coal and oil consumption. Our argument is that such data, while real, miss the essential greening that has been in continuous operation now for the past 13 years. This article reveals that China has been experiencing a green shift in electric power capacity of 1.6% per year for the past 13 years, which if continued (as seems likely) will result in China’s electric generating capacity becoming more green than black (more than 50% from green, WWS sources) within six years, by 2027. This is the trend that dominates China’s energy choices, providing a level of energy security that would be quite impossible if China had continued to pursue a fossil fuel pathway.

Decarbonization and dematerialization (i.e. reducing material usage per unit GDP), meeting China’s twin goals of enhancing energy and material security, have the fortunate side effect of eventually lowering carbon emissions, which have now been made an official goal in the commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Such choices also resolve otherwise insoluble problems to do with rising geopolitical tensions as competition heats up for dwindling fossil fuel resources and with rising levels of carbon particulate pollution from burning of fossil fuels. China is leading the way in a dramatically effective solution for such problems through its green shift, meeting its own national interests before all else. The fact that its greening choices reduce carbon emissions worldwide is a favorable by-product of this increasingly assertive country’s energy choices.

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John A. Mathews is Professor Emeritus in the Macquarie Business School, Macquarie University, Sydney.

Xin Huang is a research associate at Macquaire Business School, Macquaire University, Sydney, Australia.

Sources

Charles, R.G., Douglas, P., Dowling, M., Liversage, G. and Davies, M.L. 2020, Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 161 (104923)

DeWit, A. 2020. Decarbonization and Critical Raw Materials: Some Issues for Japan, Asia Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, Vol 19, issue 3, article 2, at: Decarbonization and Critical Raw Materials: Some Issues for Japan | The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus (apjjf.org)

Mathews, J.A. and Huang, C.X 2020. Greening trends within China’s energy system: A 2019 update, Asia Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, Vol 18, issue 17, article 3

Mathews, J.A. and Tan, H. 2014. Manufacture renewables to build energy security, Nature, (11 Sep 2014)

Mathews, J.A. and Tan, H. 2016. Circular economy: Lessons from China, Nature, (23 March 2016), at: Circular economy: Lessons from China : Nature News & Comment

Notes

See IEA, Global Energy Review: CO2 emissions in 2020, at: Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020 – Analysis – IEA

See the EIA Q&A, at: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

See the updated CEC data.

The reason that the green shift is less pronounced in electricity generation is that the levels of generating efficiency vary across solar, wind and hydro sources.

Calculated as a further six years at a shift of 1.6% per year – or a 9.6% shift in capacity over six years. The sequence is: 2020 41.0%; 2021 42.6%; 2022 44.2%; 2023 45.8%; 2024 47.4%; 2025 49.0%; and 2026 50.6%.

See the latest report from Wood Mackenzie, Tectonic Shift: China’s world-changing push for energy independence, 2021, at: Tectonic shift: China’s world-changing push for energy independence | Wood Mackenzie

See “2021 National Coal Trade Fair: How to make a steady start?” 24 January 2021.

Note that nuclear added a further 1 GW capacity in 2020, making 135 GW non-fossil fuel capacity (WWS + nuclear). Nuclear now accounts for only marginal increases.

See “China’s new 2030 climate commitments: Beyond peak emissions”, HIS Markit, 15 Dec 2020.

10 See “2021 National Coal Trade Fair: How to make a steady start?” 24 January 2021.

11 See “Total energy consumption in 2020 about 4.97 billion tons of standard coal and task of total energy consumption control completed”, 25 January 2021.

12 Another indication is “Access to electricity (% of population)”. According to the data of World Bank, Japan, US and EU-28 had all achieved 100% by 2000. China caught up from 96.91% in 2000 to 100% by 2013.

13 The IEA report, to be titled The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions, is due to be published in May 2021 (DeWit 2021).

14 See the Commentary by Mathews and Tan in Nature in 2016 on this theme. For a review of the rising significance of “urban mining” (recovering strategic materials like copper from material flows), see the recent report from the Fraunhofer Institute in Karlsruhe, Germany, The promise and limits of Urban Mining, Nov 2020 . On the rising levels of recovery of critical raw materials from green technologies, see Charles et al (2020).

15 See the argument on this point in the Commentary published in Nature (Mathews and Tan 2014). 

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The Japanese Cabinet of Ministers has reached an official decision on the discharge from the Fukushima Daiichi emergency nuclear power plant into a significant body of water that has already accumulated on the territory of the nuclear power plant. The entire Fukushima Daiichi site is currently lined with these tanks containing more than 1.25 million tons of water still contaminated, despite its purification, with isotopes of radioactive tritium, which cannot be extracted. It is better to separate the tritium, but the task is incredibly difficult and very expensive. In part, the Japanese tested this technology, but never implemented it.

According to Japanese authorities, the annual level of radioactivity in the area of water discharge from the Fukushima Daiichi will be up to 0.62 microsieverts in seawater and 1.3 microsieverts in the atmosphere, which supposedly falls within the concept of “maximum permissible concentration”.

However, due to the consequences of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and the ingress of radioactive substances into the environment, and without the discharge of this water, negative consequences have already been noted. In 2018, American wine from California was found to contain radioactive particles from the accident at Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima. Small amounts of radioactive isotopes of Iodine and Cesium were also found in vegetables grown in South Korea and in fish caught off the Japanese coast.

According to experts, the radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi emergency nuclear power plant, although partially purified, if entering the human body, even as a result of eating ocean fish, will cause additional internal radiation, which is many times more harmful than external. The logic of the Japanese authorities is clearly erroneous and fairly common for any nuclear industry enterprise, which is that the Pacific Ocean is huge, and the concentration of those radionuclides that remain in the tanks when diluted will drop. However, for humans, such radionuclides in the environment pose a great danger, since, entering the food chain, and, ultimately, into the human body, they cause internal radiation. And it is responsible for most diseases. After Japan does pour radioactive water into the ocean, life on the planet will become even more dangerous, and not only in Japan. The Japanese themselves should know this first of all, since the population of this country has already suffered as a result of the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US Air Force, the subsequent radioactive contamination of the country and its environment.

According to the structure of the currents, after the discharge of radioactive water in the area of the nuclear power plant, fishing zones will certainly suffer, in which not only Japanese fishermen catch fish, supplying it to international food markets.

The population of Fukushima Prefecture, especially the All Japan Fishing Cooperatives Association, despite the “reassuring statements” of the country’s authorities, oppose this dump. Also, deep concern on this issue was expressed by the states neighboring with Japan, in particular, China, South Korea, Russia.

The head of the South Korean Office for the Coordination of Public Policy, Ku Yun Chol, at a briefing on April 12, in particular, said:

“The decision to dump contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the ocean not only endangers the safety and ocean environment of the surrounding countries, but is also a unilateral decision by Japan without due discussion and permission from our country as a close neighbor. Our parliament, civil society, local authorities and local assemblies are all against the decision to dump. Even within Japan itself, not only fishermen, but also experts and society are strongly opposed to it.”

He also said that South Korea has long banned seafood imports from eight prefectures near Fukushima and is generally conducting a thorough scrutiny of all seafood. In recent months, the verification procedure and tracking measures for the entry of radioactive products into the country have been strengthened, and now South Korea will even more closely monitor the place of production of all imported seafood and check their level of radioactivity. Ku Yun Chol emphasized that South Korea plans to strengthen coordination on this issue with international organizations such as the IAEA and the WTO.

The sharply negative reaction of the Chinese authorities to Japan’s decision to discharge purified water from Fukushima Daiichi was expressed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry in a statement on April 12: “Such actions testify to extreme irresponsibility, they cause serious damage to health and threaten the safety of the population of neighboring states.” As emphasized by the Chinese diplomatic department, such unilateral actions by the Japanese side “can lead to radiation contamination of the waters of the Pacific Ocean and lead to genetic disorders.”

The Japanese media have long reported on Japanese authorities preparing a decision on the prompt discharge of purified water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in order to have time to do this even before the start of the Olympic Games in Japan.

In this regard, it is appropriate to recall that the decision to hold and postpone the Olympic Games in Japan until the summer of 2021 was made last year after the assurances of the Prime Minister of this country at that time (Shinzo Abe) that the situation after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is controlled by the Japanese government. Stating that radioactive water would have to be dumped into the Pacific Ocean in the current climate would be an extremely unfortunate option today, as it would, at the very least, lead to a heated discussion about the health of athletes who will be arriving for the upcoming Tokyo Olympics. Surfers, for example, planned to compete for medals 250 kilometers south of Fukushima in Tsurigasaki in the Pacific Ocean, and some other competitions were envisaged less than 60 kilometers from the nuclear power plant.

The Tokyo Olympics have been famously postponed from the summer of 2020 to 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic. It was planned that in 2021 the competition will be held in Japan from July 23 to August 8.

However, according to Kyodo, which recently conducted a social survey of residents about the holding of the Olympics in Tokyo, most Japanese residents oppose its holding in 2021.  39% of the Japanese surveyed were in favor of canceling the Games, and about 33% were in favor of postponing the Olympics. Only 24.5% of Japanese residents are positive about the fact that thousands of athletes from all over the world will come to the Japanese capital in the summer of 2021.

In these conditions, the new Japanese government, balancing on the mood of the population of its country, has been looking for an opportunity for several months to find an objective reason for canceling the Olympic Games and report it “without losing face.” Finally, as reported by the British The Times, citing responsible sources, the Japanese government is still tacitly inclined to the decision to cancel the Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo “because of the Covid-19 pandemic”, intending, nevertheless, to claim the right to hosting the 2032 Games.

Since a decision is being made to refuse to host the Olympic Games, then the decision to dump water from the storage tanks of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant did not wait long in the minds of representatives of the Japanese government…

However, another problem remains: after these two decisions, how will the Japanese themselves, the athletes of the Olympic Games in Tokyo, as well as the international community, remember the current Japanese government?

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Vladimir Odintsov, expert politologist, exclusively for the online magazine ‘New Eastern Outlook’.

India’s Impending War on Crypto

April 16th, 2021 by Peter C. Earle

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A senior official in the Indian government recently revealed to Reuters that the government would soon propose a law banning the trade and possession of cryptocurrencies. India has quickly become a global cryptocurrency hub, with 8 million investors holding an estimated $1.4 billion USD in crypto assets. The legislation, which intends to pave the way for an official digital rupee, would give holders up to six months to liquidate their cryptocurrency holdings, after which they would face penalties of varying degrees.

Though the legislation has not been made official as of yet, its effects have still been felt. Bitcoin tumbled from its all-time high price of $61,556.59 several weeks back as the prospect of a ban in the fifth-largest economy shook expectations. However, as is the case with any number of government-imposed bans, India’s proposed legislation may be doomed before it is even implemented.

The proposed legislation would only be the latest example of the Indian government’s overt hostility toward crypto. In 2019, a government panel recommended jail time of up to 10 years for people who mined, held, transferred, or dealt in cryptocurrencies. Despite this, Indian user registrations at crypto exchanges have skyrocketed; Bitbns reported a 30-fold increase, while Unocoin added 20,000 users in January and February even amid the ban chatter.

Bitcoin’s similarities to gold may, at least in part, explain the propensity among many Indians to accumulate it. Indian crypto advocate Kashif Raza shared, “Indian culture always promoted savings. India has always been a huge holder of gold. Every family is keeping gold in their house.” Among the nation’s young and deeply tech-savvy population, Bitcoin may simply be the modern iteration of wealth preservation.

Bitcoin in Indian Rupee (5 yrs)

Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP

Should Indian officials have second thoughts about the impending legislation, there are any number of cautionary case studies to be found around the world. Many countries have already banned and restricted the usage of cryptocurrencies, inevitably to varying degrees of failure. Take Iran, for example: in 2018, the Central Bank banned the use of cryptocurrencies so as to “prevent crimes such as money laundering and terrorism.” At the official level, that ban has been reaffirmed over the years and officials have been publicly hawkish as recently as March 2021––but behind the scenes, sentiments may be shifting. Recently, the Iranian Presidential Center for Strategic Studies, a think tank linked to President Hassan Rouhani, called for the nation to mine cryptocurrency in order to circumvent tough international sanctions and help Iran’s hurting economy.

Iranians have endured mounting inflation for years, and in August of last year saw extreme stock market losses when the local equity bubble burst. Bitcoin, however, did not falter––and many Iranians chose to recoup and grow their fortunes by investing in the instrument. Bahman Habibi, who heads the Iranian crypto exchange Bittestan, sees crypto as a way to improve the Iranian capital market, not avoid it: “By buying and stacking cryptocurrency reserves in the country, we would actually be creating reserves that have a much higher added value than US dollars, euros, or even gold.” (The Iranian government is decidedly hostile to gold ownership as well.)

With the Iranian rial growing ever weaker, it is no wonder that Iranians have sought alternatives. India could well be on a similar course––just days ago, Moody’s Analytics dubbed its inflation rate “uncomfortably high.” Economic strain has shaken virtually every nation, and in India, people seem to be coping with uncertainty and unemployment by turning to crypto.

India Wholesale Price Index for all Commodities, YoY (5 yrs)

Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP

States consistently seek to regulate what they do not and cannot control. India’s tentative cryptocurrency ban is concerning, to be sure––but it is also a sign of the far-reaching support that alternative assets have accrued. Indian citizens have embraced cryptocurrencies in astonishing numbers, and despite the government’s best efforts to suppress the crypto economy, history would indicate that it’s a futile endeavor. By trying to ban them, the case for cryptocurrencies is made all the more clear, propelling their use and further innovation. The cryptocat is out, irrevocably so, of the bag.

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Peter C. Earle is an economist and writer who joined AIER in 2018 and prior to that spent over 20 years as a trader and analyst in global financial markets on Wall Street. His research focuses on financial markets, monetary issues, and economic history. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, NPR, and in numerous other publications.

Pete holds an MA in Applied Economics from American University, an MBA (Finance), and a BS in Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point. Follow him on Twitter.

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No one could have put a simple proposition better than what Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi did last week on the mending of the Sino-India relationship which has been uneasy following the tense border skirmishes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh region last year.

On March 7, the Chinese foreign minister held a news conference on the sidelines of the fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress in Beijing, the country’s top legislature, to explain China’s diplomatic agenda for 2021 to the outside world.

Wang Yi sets tone for future of Sino-Indian ties

Although the virtual media conference was dominated by questions on the US-China relationship in post-Trump era, China-Russia bilateral relations, COVID-19 vaccine cooperation, Hong Kong electoral system, global governance, the Belt and Road Initiative and some major domestic events to be held this year, Wang also spoke about the importance of building a “constructive relationship” with India. He offered a fresh blueprint to clear the air on Sino-Indian bilateral relations after the prolonged border standoff in the Ladakh border area.

The foreign minister exhibited both hope and confidence on relations between Asia’s two biggest countries. “The boundary dispute, an issue left from history, is not the whole story of the China-India relationship,” Wang said. The candid tone of his remarks emphasized that China values its friendship with India and will work to manage its differences with its neighbor.

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Australia’s Labor Party’s recognition of Palestine as a State on March 30 is a welcomed position, though it comes with many caveats.

Pro-Palestinian activists are justified to question the sincerity of the ALP’s stance and whether Australia’s Labor is genuinely prepared to fully adopt this position should they form a government following the 2022 elections.

The language of the amendment regarding the recognition of Palestine is quite indecisive. While it commits the ALP to recognize Palestine as a State, it “expects that this issue will be an important priority for the next Labor government”. ‘Expecting’ that the issue would be made an ‘important priority’ is not the same as confirming that the recognition of Palestine is resolved, should Labor take office.

Moreover, the matter has been an ‘important priority’ for the ALP for years. In fact, similar language was adopted in the closing session of the Labor conference in December 2018, which supported “the recognition and right of Israel and Palestine to exist as two states within secure and recognized borders,” while adding this important clause: The ALP “calls on the next Labor government to recognize Palestine as a State”.

Unfortunately for Labor, they lost the May 2019 elections, where the Liberal Party maintained the majority, again forming a government under the leadership of Scott Morrison.

Morrison was the Prime Minister of Australia when, in 2018, the ALP adopted what was clearly a policy shift on Palestine. In fact, it was Morrison’s regressive position on Israel that supposedly compelled Labor to develop a seemingly progressive position on Palestine. Nine days after former US President, Donald Trump, defied international law by officially recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel – and subsequently relocating the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem – Morrison flirted with the idea as well, hoping to enlist the support of the pro-Israel lobbies in Australia prior to the elections.

However, Morrison did not go as far as Trump, by refraining from moving his country’s embassy to the occupied city. Instead, he developed a precarious – albeit still illegal – position where he recognized West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, promising to move his country’s “embassy to West Jerusalem when practical, in support of, and after, final-status determination.”

Canberra, however, did take ‘practical’ steps, including a decision to establish a defense and trade office in Jerusalem and proceeded to look for a site for its future embassy.

Morrison’s self-serving strategy remains a political embarrassment for Australia, as it drew the country closer to Trump’s illegal, anti-Palestinian stance. While the vast majority of United Nations member states maintained a unified position regarding the illegality of the Israeli occupation of Palestine, asserting that the status of Jerusalem can only be determined based on a negotiated agreement, the Australian government thought otherwise.

As Palestinians, Arabs and other nations mobilized against Australia’s new position, the ALP came under pressure to balance out the Liberal party’s agenda, seen as blindly supportive of military occupation and apartheid.

Since the ALP lost the elections, their new policy on Palestine could not be evaluated. Now, according to their latest policy conference conclusion, this same position has been reiterated, although with some leeway, that could potentially allow Labor to reverse or delay that position, once they are in power.

Nonetheless, the Labor position is an important step for Palestinians in their ‘legitimacy war’ against the Israeli occupation.

In a recent interview with Professor Richard Falk, former UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories, the international law expert explained the need to “distinguish symbolic politics from substantive politics”.

“In the colonial wars that were fought after 1945, the side that won usually was the side that won what I call the legitimacy war, which is the ‘symbolic battlefield’, so to speak, and maintain the principled position that was in accord with the anti-colonial flow of history,” Falk said.

Practically, this means that, often, the militarily weaker side which may lose numerous military battles could ultimately win the war. This was as true in the case of Vietnam in 1975 as it was in South Africa in 1994. It should also be true in the case of Palestine.

This is precisely why pro-Israeli politicians, media pundits and organizations are fuming in response to the ALP’s recognition of Palestine. Among the numerous angry responses, the most expressive is the position of Michael Danby. He was quoted by Australian Jewish News website as saying that ALP leaders, Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles, have done more than adopting the pro-Palestinian position of former British Labor leader, Jeremy Corbyn, by also adopting “his Stalinist methods by suppressing debate on the foreign policy motions”.

Israel and its supporters fully understand the significance of Falk’s ‘legitimacy war’. Indeed, Israel’s military superiority and complete dominance over occupied Palestinians may allow it to sustain its military occupation on the ground a while longer, but it does very little to advance its moral position, reputation and legitimacy.

The fact that ALP’s position advocates a two-state solution – which is neither just nor practical – should not detract from the fact that the recognition of Palestine is still a stance that can be utilized in the Palestinian quest for legitimizing their struggle and delegitimizing Israel’s apartheid.

Falk’s theory on ‘substantive politics’ and ‘symbolic politics’ applies here, too. While calling for defunct two-states is part of the substantive politics that is necessitated by international consensus, the symbolism of recognizing Palestine is a crucial step in dismantling Israel’s monopoly over the agenda of the West’s political elites. It is an outright defeat of the efforts of pro-Israeli lobbies.

Politicians, anywhere, cannot possibly win the legitimacy war for Palestinians, or any other oppressed nation. It is the responsibility of the Palestinians and their supporters to impose their moral agenda on the often self-serving politicians so that the symbolic politics may someday become substantive. The ALP recognition of Palestine is, for now, mere symbolism. If utilized correctly, through pressure, advocacy and mobilization, it could turn into something meaningful in the future.  This is not the responsibility of Labor, but of Palestinians themselves.

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Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of five books. His latest is “These Chains Will Be Broken: Palestinian Stories of Struggle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons” (Clarity Press). Dr. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) and also at the Afro-Middle East Center (AMEC). His website iswww.ramzybaroud.net

Australia’s Self-Inflicted Economic Woes Continue

April 15th, 2021 by Joseph Thomas

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Australia had until recently been enjoying economic growth alongside the rise of China. This all changed when Canberra began following Washington’s lead, antagonising China, and in what would snowball into a costly, self-inflicted economic crisis.

Today, Australia not only faces mounting barriers to trade erected by China in response to Australia’s systematic antagonism, but now is seeing what had been temporary trade disputes transform slowly into a Beijing strategy to permanently eliminate dependency on Australian imports.

Once set into place, the ability for Australia to return to previous levels of lucrative trade with China will be unlikely.

Australia’s Self-Inflicted Economic Ruination 

In 2018, Australia buckled under US pressure to ban Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from nationwide 5G infrastructure contracts citing still unfounded “national security concerns.”

The BBC in an article titled, “Huawei and ZTE handed 5G network ban in Australia,” would claim:

“…the Australian government said national security regulations that were typically applied to telecoms firms would be extended to equipment suppliers.

Companies that were “likely to be subject to extrajudicial directions from a foreign government” could present a security risk, it said.

Even the BBC and the Australian government were clear to use the word, “could present,” versus the demonstrated security risk US-made hardware poses as revealed by the Western media itself in articles like MIT Technology Review’s, “NSA’s Own Hardware Backdoors May Still Be a “Problem from Hell”,” which would note:

In 2011, General Michael Hayden, who had earlier been director of both the National Security Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency, described the idea of computer hardware with hidden “backdoors” planted by an enemy as “the problem from hell.” This month, news reports based on leaked documents said that the NSA itself has used that tactic, working with US companies to insert secret backdoors into chips and other hardware to aid its surveillance efforts.

Quite clearly then, the threat of compromised hardware is not the real reason this ban has been leveled against Chinese companies since similar bans have not been used to target US-made hardware. Instead, the most likely motivation fits in with Washington’s wider strategy of encircling and containing China, including the blunting of its economic rise as a whole, and the sabotage of individual Chinese companies poised to overtake their Western rivals.

More recently, Australia followed suit in a US-led propaganda campaign to shift the blame for the global COVID-19 crisis on China.

A Reuters article titled, “Africa’s miners and winemakers toast China’s row with Australia,” would not only note China’s moves to permanently resolve this growing dispute with Australia by simply finding more dependable and amicable trading partners, but also attempted to explain how this trade row recently escalated when Canberra, “led calls for an inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan.”

Of course, this was a politically-motivated inquiry meant to insinuate China was responsible for the spread of COVID-19, and by implication, also responsible for the resulting global crisis.

Logically, even if China had been responsible for COVID-19’s spread throughout its own territory, failing to detect, isolate, and contain its spread, it is difficult to understand how China is also responsible for it spreading in Australia or the US.

What prevented the Australian or US governments from detecting, isolating, and containing the spread of the virus within their own borders, and how exactly would China be to blame for the fact that they didn’t? Here reveals the propaganda value of this inquiry and precisely why China responded through additional tariffs against Australian imports.

The trade war is hurting Australia in ways it will not be able to overcome without quickly reconciling with Beijing.

The amount of iron ore exported to China from Australia cannot simply be diverted elsewhere. Which nation possesses the same sized industrial base and demand for such ore? The answer is; no one.

Worse still are “economic solutions” Australia is exploring to make up for its declining economic health.

Australian state media, ABC, in an article titled, “Australia to produce its own guided missiles as part of billion-dollar defence manufacturing plan,” would claim:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison will unveil the plan later today but is warning the “changing global environment” highlights the need to create the sovereign capability.

The article also noted:

The Department of Defence will choose a “strategic industry partner” which will be contracted to operate the manufacturing facility.

Potential partners include Raytheon Australia, Lockheed Martin Australia, Konsberg and BAE Systems Australia.

Thus, there really is no “sovereign capability” being developed, since the weapons will be made by the Australian subsidiaries of US and Western European-based arms manufacturers, using Australian tax dollars, and creating a minimum number of jobs in the process all while using technology with little to no practical application outside the realm of arms manufacturing.

The missiles, once completed, will most likely be pointed at China by Australia, or sold to nations in the region who will likewise point them at China.

The propaganda campaign fueling Australia’s growing antagonism toward China and creating the climate of fear among the Australian public to justify expenditures on weapons often stems from policy think tanks like the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).

That ASPI is funded by the very same arms manufactures mentioned above, Raytheon and Lockheed, directly profiting from the growing crisis, should be no surprise.

If the trade row wasn’t bad enough, special interests driving Australian foreign policy doubling down on “solutions” that will only expand the row (and also a wider conflict) signals to Beijing that Australia wasn’t, isn’t and likely well into the future won’t be a reliable partner.

China Moving on Without Australia? 

Conversely, China has plenty of alternatives to choose from and has been cultivating them for years out of a desire to hedge against economic uncertainties. But it was a strategy that has clearly served Beijing well in the face of the sort of political uncertainties Australia’s antagonism now represents.

The same Reuters article discussing Australia’s China-COVID-19 inquiry would also note:

In the mining sector though, China has spent the past decade ramping up projects in Africa to safeguard the flow of raw materials to the manufacturing juggernaut.

Those investments are now paying off and African producer countries are pocketing the royalties as exports to the world’s second biggest economy get a boost at Australia’s expense.

The article covers a wide range of ores, minerals and other goods China is seeking to diversify away from dependence on Australia for, and toward partners in Africa.

The article describes how in just a few years, momentum is already starting to swing in favour of African exporters at Australia’s expense. Once the process is complete, it will be very difficult for Australia’s government to repair both the political damage it has created and convince Beijing to forego its new partners in favour of a return to Australian trade, now proven to be politically unreliable.

Like the US itself whom Australia follows the lead of, Australia finds itself needlessly rendering itself irrelevant because of a fundamental inability to accept an emerging global balance of power, correcting the unwarranted concentration of power and wealth in the hands of Western nations at the expense of the rest of the world.

Australia’s inability to find a constructive role to play among the nations of the Indo-Pacific region and recognize China’s rise as a regional and global power, insisting instead to partner with Washington in a campaign to reassert Western primacy over the region, is not “going to be” Australia’s downfall, it already is Australia’s downfall.

How far Australia falls, and if it arrives at depths it can never fully return from, is up to Canberra.

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Joseph Thomas is chief editor of Thailand-based geopolitical journal, The New Atlas and contributor to the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

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Beijing warned that it might take action in response to Tokyo’s decision to dump radioactive water from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant into the sea, adding to already strained ties between the two East Asian neighbours, while also urging Washington to be “impartial” on the issue.

China’s foreign ministry on Tuesday blasted the Japanese government for being “extremely irresponsible” in its decision to release 1 million tonnes of waste water into the Pacific Ocean in two years, a decision that has prompted fierce opposition from the local fishing industry as well as neighbouring countries, including South Korea, and environmental groups. However, the United States said the approach was acceptable.

“The US side has always paid a lot of attention to environmental issues. We hope the US side can be impartial in its treatment towards environmental issues of real concern,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that the decision, long delayed by public opposition and safety concerns, was the “most realistic option”. This comes a decade after the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl was triggered by a huge earthquake and tsunami that ripped through northeastern Japan in 2011.

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A “Win-win” for US, Turkey in Hindu Kush

April 14th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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The zeal with which Washington is soliciting Turkey’s services to plot the pathway leading to the mainstreaming of Taliban in Afghanistan raises some troubling questions. Acting on Washington’s request, Turkey will be hosting high-level talks on the Afghanistan peace process (likely April 16) to bring together the Afghan government and the Taliban. Turkey has appointed a special envoy to assume the mediation role. 

Turkey is entering the cockpit to navigate the Afghan peace process to a conclusion that meets US objectives. This will have a salutary effect on the fraught Turkish-American relationship. The US appreciates that preferred engaging Turkey is an influential OIC member country, enjoys historical links with Afghanistan and has a positive image among Afghans. But digging deeper, the unholy US-Turkey alliance in the Syrian conflict creates disquiet. 

Pentagon and CIA are reluctant to vacate Afghanistan by May 1. Turkey will be overseeing an open-ended US-NATO presence. The US hopes to retain a strong intelligence presence backed by special operations forces. A report Friday in the CNN disclosed that “CIA, which has had a significant say in US decision-making in Afghanistan, has “staked out some clear positions” during recent deliberations, arguing in favour of continuing US involvement.” 

The scale of the CIA activities in Afghanistan are not in public domain — especially, whether its regional mandate extends beyond the borders of Afghanistan. The CNN report cited above lifted the veil on “one of the most heavily guarded bases” of the CIA — Forward Operating Base Chapman, “a classified US military installation in eastern Afghanistan.” 

Suffice to say, given the presence of the ISIS fighters (including those transferred from Syria to Afghanistan — allegedly in US aircraft, according to Russia and Iran) — the nexus between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and above all, the presence of Uighur, Central Asian and Chechen terrorists, Turkey’s induction as the US’ buddy in Afghanistan is indeed worrisome for regional states. Turkey has transferred jihadi fighters from Idlib to Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh to fight hybrid wars.  

Significantly, Turkey has abruptly shifted its stance on the Uighur issue after years of passivity and hyped it up as a diplomatic issue between Ankara and Beijing. China’s ambassador to Ankara was summoned to Turkey’s Foreign Ministry last Tuesday.

On the other hand, a perceptible “thaw” in the US-Turkey relations is under way. During the recent NATO ministerial in Brussels, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken underscored, “I believe having Turkey in  NATO is particularly for the benefit of us.” Clearly, any American overtures to Turkey will be in need of a powerful success story. That is where Turkey’s mediatory role in Afghanistan and a potential role in post-settlement Afghanistan become templates of Washington’s dual containment strategy toward Russia and China. 

Turkey has staked claims for the mantle of leadership of the Turkic world stretching from the Black Sea to the steppes of Central Asia and Xinjiang. Simply put, Turkish role in Afghanistan and Central Asia will challenge its relationship with Russia, which is already under strain in Libya, Syria, Caucasus and potentially in the Black Sea and the Balkans. (In a phone conversation Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned Turkish president Recep Erdogan about “the importance of preserving the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits with a view to ensuring regional stability and security.”)

Equally, the US hopes to keep Iran off balance regionally by encouraging Turkish revanchism. The Turkish-Iranian rivalry is already palpable in Iraq where Washington hopes to establish the NATO as provider of security. Serious rifts between Ankara and Tehran appear also over Nagorno-Karabakh. Thus, Afghanistan’s future figured prominently in the discussions during Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif’s recent 6-day regional tour of Central Asian capitals.

China and Russia are vigilant about the US intentions in Afghanistan. (See my blog China resents US presence in Afghanistan.) And both have problematic relations with Erdogan. Turkey’s ascendance on the Afghan-Central Asian landscape cannot be to their comfort. During his recent visit to Tehran, China’s State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi voiced support for Iran’s membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to visit Tehran on April 14. 

Overall, these geopolitical realignments are taking place as the US intensifies its suppression of China and Russia. But, for Turkey, the intervention in Syria has proved profitable. The Turkish-controlled territories of northern Syria consists of a 8,835-square-kilometre area already and Ankara has no intentions to vacate its occupation. 

Turkey will no doubt look for similar gains. For a start, regaining primacy in the western alliance system as the US’ irreplaceable partner and as Europe’s interlocutor with Muslim Middle East has always been a Turkish dream. A clincher will be whether Washington can prevail upon the EU to grant some special dispensation for Turkey — “associate membership” is one possibility. 

For EU, too, Turkey becomes a key partner if NATO is to consolidate in the Black Sea and encircle Russia in its backyard. Turkey has already positioned itself as a provider of security for the anti-Russian regime in Ukraine. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky visited Erdogan on Saturday against the backdrop of rising tensions with Russia.  

Turkish officials are cautiously optimistic about recent high-level efforts to improve dialogue between Ankara and Brussels. The European actors are coordinating with Washington. The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel’s visit to Ankara last Wednesday can be seen as a significant initial effort to improve relations with Turkey. As one Turkish commentator put it, the “olive branch” given by the EU leaders to Erdogan has “five main leaves”:

  • Concrete agenda on economic cooperation and migration;
  • Handling and updating the problems related to the Customs Union;
  • Commitment to continue the flow of funds for refugees in Turkey;
  • Adding momentum to the relations with Turkey on key cooperation areas; and, 
  • The Eastern Mediterranean security and stability. 

All in all, Turkey is being “incentivised” to get back into the western fold and play its due role as NATO power. Today, Turkey is probably the only ally regionally and internationally that Washington can lean on to wean Pakistan away from the orbit of influence of China and Russia, which truly makes Turkey an indispensable partner for the US and NATO in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. 

Indeed, Russia and Turkey have been historically rivals in Afghanistan. Turkey has deep-rooted centuries-old pan-Islamic ties with Afghanistan that by far predate Pakistan’s creation in 1947. How far Pakistan will be willing to play a subaltern role in future Afghanistan remains to be seen. But then, all this must be having Russia worried in regard of the security and stability of its Central Asian backyard and North Caucasia. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Islamabad last week was the first such ministerial since 2012.

Fundamentally, the contradictions in US-Turkey relations will not simply wither away — US’ alliance with Kurds in Syria; US opposition to Turkey’s intervention in Libya; Erdogan’s abysmal human rights record; discord over Turkey’s S-400 missile deal with Russia; and so on. But the two Cold War allies are also used to finessing contradictions whenever opportunities came their way to work together to mutual benefit. 

Without doubt, in the power dynamic of the highly strategic regions surrounding Afghanistan, the two countries can look forward to a “win-win” cooperation. 

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Asia’s Problems Must be Solved by Asian Countries

April 14th, 2021 by Vladimir Terehov

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A series of recent events involving China, Japan and India allows us to revisit the theme of the growing influence of these three leading Asian countries on the nature of developments in the Indo-Pacific region.

This fact is of particular importance against the backdrop of the continuing decline of the US role in the world in general and in the region in particular. Which, incidentally, is in the national interest of the country. That is, the process is quite objective in nature and does not depend on political rhetoric about the “return” (to somewhere and for some reason) of the next American administration.

This is evidenced by its own statements about the rejection of scenarios of forceful intervention in internal political perturbations of other countries, about the continuation of the policy of the previous administration on the military withdrawal from Afghanistan and in general the reduction of the American military presence in the Greater Middle East.

As for the “return of America” to Europe, the problems arising from it can already be seen with the naked eye. For example, in connection with contradictory signals from Washington about the Nord Stream 2 project. For the price of the issue is not so much this project and the (pseudo) problem of the “Russian challenge” in general, but rather the relations with Germany, the leading European country. And, consequently, this “price” includes a very likely problematization of NATO, which is the main instrument of maintaining the military and political presence of the United States in Europe.

It is unlikely that the trade and economic (quite extensive) sphere of Euro-Atlantic relations will undergo significant changes. But this is a completely different format from what they had during the entire Cold War period.

So far, no such progress has been seen in US relations with its key Asian allies. Mainly because Asia is now the place where the principal geopolitical opponent of the United States is located, in the form of China. Therefore, efforts are being made to, first, strengthen the long-standing bilateral alliances here, and, second, to create something akin to a multilateral (Asian) counterpart of NATO in the IPR.

Japan remains a key US ally in the region, and Washington has given it an equally important role in a (hypothetical) “Asian NATO”. The current forum-based QUAD of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, whose first (video) summit was held on March 12 this year, is seen as a kind of leaven for such a politico-military alliance.

Once again, we note that this event, too, did not dispel the dense fog that originally surrounded the prospect of a full-fledged multilateral military-political alliance with an anti-Chinese orientation in the region. Mainly because there is no more or less common perception of the PRC as a source of threat to national interests in Asian countries today. This is fundamentally different from the situation in Cold War Europe. Beijing still has problems of varying degrees of importance in its relations with almost all of its neighbors. This is mainly due to territorial disputes that have their origins in both relatively recent and rather distant history. This kind of problem can only be solved on the basis of the goodwill of the parties directly involved and is unlikely to be resolved within the framework of current international law.

This is illustrated by the zero significance of the decision of the Arbitration Court in The Hague in the summer of 2016 regarding China’s claims to ownership of 80-90% of the South China Sea. It has had no effect on the complex situation in the Southeast Asian subregion, but can be taken advantage of by some “problem solver” as a legal justification for the use of force here.

So far, the main (external, it is important to emphasize) “solver” in this regard is Washington. But lately some of the Europeans have decided to join the US for some reason. Which continues to amaze, for it is completely incomprehensible why Europeans are multiplying the number of their own problems by getting into the anthill (already going through turmoil) that is on the other side of the globe.

And there are no threats to their trade and economic ties with Southeast Asia, China, Japan, South Korea… That is, in the area in which postwar Europe so excelled and what accounts for its current standing in the international arena.

And in which postwar Japan was no less successful. However, its increasing presence in the IPR is not at all surprising. For Japan is an inseparable and one of the most important elements of the region.

Europe and the United States may well be present here, too. But rather in the role of guests (invited, which is important to emphasize), not as the hosts. Who are suffering from obviously inflated self-esteem, the consequence of which is their current ridiculous position as teachers in the field of “human rights”. However, they have been taking that stance for completely understandable political and practical purposes.

As for Japan, it could not be excluded from the IPR (and SEA) even if it wanted to. In this regard, the second (since 2015) Japan-Indonesia meeting in Tokyo on March 30 in the “2+2″ format, that is, with the participation of foreign and defense ministers, was rather notable. Judging by the comments of its results, the parties have found common ground on a wide range of issues.

Indonesia is one of the main countries of Southeast Asia and the ASEAN regional grouping, with the world’s leading players vying for influence. Without exception, all ASEAN members seek to move beyond the format of the objects of the game of “big players” and to position themselves in one way or another in relation to each of them without really “offending” any of them. Since it’s really more trouble than it’s worth.

In this regard, the trip of Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi along the Tokyo-Beijing route looked quite natural. During her talks with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, the (no less broad) range of topics was discussed: from cooperation in combating the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to security issues in Southeast Asia.

There is a noteworthy recent trend in Chinese foreign policy aimed at reducing its notorious “assertiveness” while increasingly striving to develop mutually beneficial relations with its neighbors. Without this, both the success of China’s key Belt and Road Initiative project and the extremely difficult role of the global power, whose interests go far beyond some local turmoil and conflicts, will be impossible.

In this context, it is difficult to overestimate the positive significance of stopping and possibly reversing one of the most serious conflicts in recent decades between China and India, that is, with one of the members of the regional strategic triangle identified above.

With Japan, the matters are much more complicated. Especially after the US-Japan “2+2″ talks in mid-March, which will be followed up by a visit to the United States by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Washington’s commitments to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, recorded after the first event, were granted to Tokyo, of course, “for a reason”. They could turn out to be chains, constraining Japan’s freedom of maneuvering in the space of regional politics. As happened a few years ago, when the instrument of issuing such commitments was used by Washington in order to disrupt the process of building relations between Tokyo and Moscow.

However, a positive factor for Sino-Japanese relations remains the signing late last year (after years of negotiations) of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with the participation of 15 IPR countries, chief among them China and Japan. Let us note, though, a negative aspect of the negotiation process on this topic, due to the withdrawal of India from it at the last moment.

No less important for Sino-Japanese relations may be the realization of Beijing’s recently announced intention to join another Japanese-led regional association, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which includes 11 countries of the same IPR.

Once again, if the many regional problems are to be solved at all, it will only be with the growing participation of the three leading regional powers that make up the China-Japan-India regional strategic configuration. Helping its participants with advice and deeds could be done only at their own (joint) request.

There are nuances in the positions of each of them on the increasingly important situation in Myanmar, a Southeast Asian country and member of ASEAN. But none of the three mentioned are hysterical about the “crimes of the military junta,” in contrast to the hysteria in which almost immediately and unanimously (after the famous events in this country) all the major Western capitals found themselves. Instead, the press of leading Asian countries is turning to the very complex history and current state of Myanmar in order to get to the bottom of what happened in that country on February 1 this year.

It would be very appropriate and timely for Asia to collectively address these capitals: “Guys (and gals as well)! Forget the old colonial times and deal with your own current problems. You have just as many, and they are just as serious. And we’ll deal with our own, this time without you.”

Let us add to this (hypothetical) address by saying that Asia is forming its own “solvers” of regional problems.

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Vladimir Terekhov is an expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

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Earlier this month, more than 300 people gathered near the borders of the Dahaiyagala Wildlife Sanctuary in Sri Lanka’s Uva province armed with axes, long knives, ropes and handheld hoes called mamoties. Their apparent intention: Take control of sanctuary lands and expand their farms.

Triggered by a rumor that the protected status of Dahaiyagala would soon be stripped as part of a countrywide drive to increase agricultural productivity in the Indian Ocean island nation, the farmers entered the forest area aiming to clear the forest and cultivate the land.

Shortly after the incursion, officers from the Department of Wildlife Conservation (DWC) managed to get the situation under control, but by that time, several patches within Dahaiyagala had already been deforested. Now, the sanctuary remains under serious threat.

Patches of Dahaiyagala’s forest were burned by a mob on Feb. 7, 2021. Image courtesy of Sameera Weerathunga.

Dahaiyagala is a 2,685-hectare (6,635-acre) section of forest that lies between Udawalawe National Park and Bogahapattiya, a proposed forest reserve rich in wildlife, with abundant water and vegetation that make it a refuge during times of drought. Dahaiyagala was declared a sanctuary in 2002 in a nod to its importance as a corridor for elephants and other wildlife.

Sri Lankan law restricts human activities in wildlife sanctuaries, disallowing deforestation and the expansion of farmland. Several farmers had been tending crops before the latest incursion, but today the threat of further encroachment from nearby communities looms larger. And more than a decade of attempts by conservation organizations has yet to result in the complete protection of the area.

In 2008, a group of environmental organizations filed a fundamental rights petition seeking judicial intervention to prevent logging and forest clearance inside the sanctuary. The court called for the demarcation of the sanctuary’s boundaries and the relocation of the farmers living within the borders. But in 2010, local politicians halted an attempt by the DWC to delineate the sanctuary’s boundaries.

In January 2021, Sri Lanka’s head of state Gotabaya Rajapaksa met with the people of Thanamalwila, which sits near the edge of the park. In the Rajapaksa pledged to release traditional farmlands that had been absorbed into conservation areas to facilitate more agriculture for surrounding communities. He said he had issued instructions to prevent action from being taken against farmers. The attempted land grab ensued on Feb. 7, 2021, forcing wildlife officials to make several arrests to control the mob.

However, there had been a recent surge in local communities trying to push into forest areas to expand agricultural activities.

Some existing farmlands around Dahaiyagala have crept into sanctuary lands. Image courtesy of Sameera Weerathunga.

A lifeline for elephants

The chance to catch a glimpse of wild Asian Elephants (Elephas maximus maximus) year-round makes Udawalawe National Park a popular stop for tourists. Elephant corridors like Dahaiyagala have contributed to this success, enabling elephants to move freely from other areas.

“The Dahaiyagala corridor is a narrow stretch of forest and not large enough to sustain any resident elephants,” says Shermin de Silva, a conservation biologist and behavioral ecologist who founded the elephant-focused NGO Trunks and Leaves.

But they use it as a sort of highway between Bogahapattiya and Udawalawe, de Silva adds. “Elephants using this patch are the same creatures found within the national park.”

Udawalawe is a popular national park that’s just 300 square kilometers (116 square miles) in size. In more than 15 years studying Udawalawe’s elephants, de Silva has recorded between 800 and 1200 individual elephants that use Udawalawe National Park.

The park is “just part of these elephants’ seasonal home range, which means these elephants do not live just inside that park. The majority — more than 60% — roam around all of the available forests nearby, including the Dahaiyagala corridor, which they use to reach Bogahapattiya, a resource-rich area needed for their survival,” de Silva says.

In the past two months, she has observed that Udawalawe elephants were starting to look thin. What’s more, they didn’t seem to put on enough weight to regain good body condition during the wet season, which she says is a sign of inadequate fodder.

Udawalawe elephants also have very low birth rates, and calves suffer when mothers have inadequate milk supply. Previous generations may have survived into their 60s, but de Silva said the elephants are now dying younger.

Our studies have shown that the elephant population is already in slow decline for these reasons, and [the] blocking of [the] Dahaiyagala [corridor] would make the situation worse,” de Silva told Mongabay.

Elephants aren’t the only animals that need connectivity between protected areas and forested areas. Other species like leopards (Panthera pardus kotiya) and Sri Lankan sambar deer (Rusa unicolor unicolor) need to move around as well, Silva said, highlighting the importance of the sanctuary.

Udawalawe National Park is home to many iconic tuskers, including Sumedha (pictured here). If access to Dahaiyagala Wildlife Sanctuary is blocked, these elephants would be forced to move into other areas or run the risk of being killed due to human-elephant conflict. Image courtesy of Milinda Wattegedara.

Impacts on nature-based tourism

Udawalawe National Park is Sri Lanka’s second-most popular national park, after Yala National Park. The Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLDA) found that in 2018, Udawalawe took in $3 million, primarily from ticket sales and vehicle and boat rentals. Additionally, many nearby communities are involved in park-related tourism, and it is an important economic resource for them.

The park is also famous for some of its iconic “tuskers,” which offer visitors the chance to see older male elephants. Sumedha is one such tusker, and sightings confirm that he uses the Dahaiyagala corridor. The area is also home to the only known dwarf Asian Elephant, a bull with short legs but an otherwise average-size body.

“If Dahaiyagala corridor is blocked, iconic elephants may decide to remain within deep-forested areas or may even get killed in their attempt to follow seasonal patterns of migration,” Weerathunga said. “Either way, the park will lose its key attraction.”

Others say that turning the sanctuary into farmland in the short run will have long-term consequences.

“Is it worth sacrificing Dahaiyagala forest to help a handful of encroaching farmers? This will impact the Udawalawe elephant population and have a serious bearing on local livelihoods,” says Rohan Wijesinha, a trustee of a Sri Lankan coalition called the Federation of Environmental Organizations.

Wijesinha has been a regular visitor to Udawalawe for more than 30 years, and he said the elephants have driven the region’s tourism.

“At least 10,000 locals directly depend on the national park. Not only safari jeep drivers, there are local hotel owners who directly service tourists,” Wijesinha says. “If the park loses its edge as one of Sri Lanka’s [premier] national park[s], its revenue generation would significantly decrease.”

Scientists report that some Udawalawe elephants are emaciated, raising concerns that they may not have enough to eat. Blocking the vital elephant corridor may exacerbate food shortages, potentially leading to the death of some elephants. Image courtesy of Shermin de Silva.

Increased human-elephant conflict   

In addition to the immediate economic impacts, environmentalists fear the closure of the Dahaiyagala corridor could drive elephants into other areas, further escalating human-elephant conflict (HEC).

If people crowd into this corridor and convert it to agriculture, that would likely trigger a surge in HEC in the area, says Sumith Pilapitiya, a former director-general of the DWC. Then, authorities will have little recourse to stop it.

“A government decision to block the corridor will not reduce the biological need for these elephants to move between the two protected areas,” Pilapitiya says.

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Featured image: Udawalawe National Park in southern Sri Lanka, the second-most visited wildlife park in the country, in part because tourists can see wild Asian elephants there throughout the year. Image courtesy of Mevan Piyasena.

Whither India-Russia Ties?

April 14th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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On Monday, the prominent Moscow daily Kommersant commented that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to New Delhi on April 5-6 “is not going to be easy because relations between the two countries are facing an increasing number of risks, which particularly include the Chinese factor test.” 

Indeed, the daily politely printed a laboured Indian explanation that the crucial difference between Russia-India and Russia-China relations is that closer ties between Moscow and Beijing “mostly stem from the two countries’ common negative agenda” with the United States, but “there is neither a negative agenda nor related damage in terms of Moscow’s relations with New Delhi.” 

Again, on Monday, another Moscow paper Nezavisimaya Gazeta quoted a Russian pundit, Professor Sergei Lunev at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, as saying, “Relations have been stalled for the past ten years. Economic ties are suffering in particular. The Soviet Union used to be one of India’s top three economic partners, but Russia barely makes it into the top twenty.” 

But, again, the professor pointed out, “There also are some positive aspects. For instance, cooperation is underway on the Sputnik V vaccine. India will produce it in larger amounts than Russia itself. Defence cooperation remains a cornerstone of relations and progress continues here on all tracks, from the S-400 systems to small arms. Russia accounts for half of India’s weapons exports.” 

These frank opinions are the tip of the iceberg, as a certain distancing has appeared between Moscow and Delhi lately. This must be the first time that a Russian Foreign Minister undertook a whirlwind regional tour of India and Pakistan. More importantly, this must be a rarest of rare occasions when a visiting Russian foreign minister was not received by India’s prime minister. 

The latter part is particularly glaring as PM Modi enjoys diplomatic interactions and would doubtless allot quality time for Mike Pompeo or Antony Blinken. (Modi found time even for visiting British foreign secretary Dominic Raab recently.) Alas, the signalling is that Russia is no longer a priority.

Yet, this isn’t about diplomatic signalling alone. In the feudal darbar culture in Delhi, this also signified a signpost for the entire governmental machinery — bureaucrats and politicians, civilian and military alike. Whereas, the perception through Modi’s first term had been that he was a stakeholder in India-Russia friendship, investing in it personally his time and energy.

Even the political establishment in Washington watched it with shock and awe. An acerbic piece in the Washington-based online journal Nikkei Asian Review last August by Marco Rubio — high-flying Republican senator from Florida and acting chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, co-chair of Congressional executive commission on China and a ranking member of Senate committee on foreign relations — carried barbs personally aimed at Modi as if PM was acting under some magical spell that Russian President Putin cast on him. 

Now, Rubio himself may have some difficulty to locate India on a world map. Clearly, this favourite sidekick of former president Donald Trump — and more so, secretary of state Pompeo — was standing in to transmit a sinister, ominous, barely-veiled warning to Delhi that it was about time Modi disengaged from the India-Russia relationship.  

That is why today, any signalling that Modi has lost interest looks a cowardly behaviour and can be lethal to the India-Russia relationship. It may pacify the US foreign policy establishment and President Joe Biden himself, who are paranoid about “killer” Putin and frantic that so long as Russia ties continue to provide an anchor sheet for India’s strategic autonomy, the agenda to lock in India in the American stable as a military ally will remain elusive. 

To be sure, the US remains vigilant about every breath Modi takes, every move he makes, every bond he forges with Putin to energise India’s relations with Russia. The US geo-strategy is heavily loaded, too, as it is proving to be immensely rewarding — India has already given up its fascination for Russian energy and has settled for US shale oil; Russia’s status as India’s number one arms supplier is being steadily replaced with American weaponry. 

Late on Monday, in fact, even as Lavrov’s plane was landing in Delhi, Secretary of State Blinken announced in Washington the names of Turkish officials and entities who will be sanctioned w.e.f  Wednesday for Ankara’s acquisition of the advanced S-400 Russian air defence system. A timely reminder for External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar! 

Surely, Lavrov was asked about the US pressure regarding India’s S-400 deal. He replied, “This has been publicly and without any hesitation announced by the United States. Everyone knows this well. We are also well aware of the response from India.” Lavrov added, “American ‘calls’ were not discussed today (with Jaishankar.)… I did not feel any hesitation here on the part of our Indian friends and partners.” Jaishankar of course kept mum. 

Interestingly, Lavrov in his characteristic way also chose to unilaterally comment on the “Asian NATO” (read Quad). He said, “Today we exchanged opinions on this matter. We and our Indian friends have a common position that this would be counterproductive (as a military alliance.) We are interested in making our cooperation inclusive and keen for it to work towards something and not against anyone.” But Jaishankar wouldn’t respond. He instead titled his head sideways and with an enigmatic look curled his lips. 

India has a rare international environment today to strengthen its strategic autonomy and take  advantage of it. But it needs political courage to explore the new opportunities. On the contrary, Modi Govt’s preferred choice is to hitch wagons to Biden’s “America is back” platform. Good luck to Modi Govt!  

China realises that India is best left alone to explore the pathway it has chosen, and to self-assess later with hindsight the efficacy of such a trek. Thus, things have ground to a halt in the disengagement process in Ladakh. Equally, Lavrov’s visit shows that Moscow too is giving a wide berth to Modi Govt. In his opening statement at the joint press conference with Jaishankar, Lavrov recalled, “By tradition, our relations stand out for mutual respect. They are intrinsically valuable and not subject to opportunistic fluctuations.” 

When a veteran diplomat brings himself to reminisce, the striking thing is that he thought it important and necessary to speak in plain words. Lavrov has a well-earned reputation for being frank. Comparisons have been drawn frequently in the West between Lavrov and the iconic figure of the Soviet era Andrey Gromyko. On the occasion of Gromyko’s 110th anniversary, in a poignant speech in Moscow in December 2019, Lavrov said,

“For Russian diplomats, the Gromyko school is primarily about patriotism, professionalism, self-discipline, the ability to delve deeply into the heart of a matter, to persistently and reasonably promote the interests of the Fatherland, and to seek effective solutions in the most complicated situations.” Succinctly put, that was what Lavrov’s mission to Delhi aimed at. Now, as they say, the ball is in Modi’s court.

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Featured image: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (L) at press conference with  External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar (R), Delhi, April 6, 2021 (Source: Indian Punchline)

Forecasting Biden’s Policy in Southeast Asia

April 13th, 2021 by Benjamin Zawacki

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Remarks by Benjamin Zawacki at the panel discussion, “Forecasting US Foreign Policy on Southeast Asia under a Biden Administration,” co-hosted by the Asian Center for International Development of Thailand’s Mae Fah Luang University and The Asia Foundation, on March 18, 2021.

The day before John F Kennedy’s inauguration in 1961, he met with an outgoing President Eisenhower. According to the Pentagon Papers, “Eisenhower said with considerable emotion that Laos was the key to the entire area of Southeast Asia … that we should make every effort to persuade member nations of SEATO … to defend the freedom of Laos … President-elect Kennedy … asked if the situation seemed to be approaching a climax … Eisenhower stated that the entire proceeding was extremely confused.”

If, two months ago, a similar briefing had been given to a president-elect Biden by an outgoing President Trump, the details 60 years on would have been different, but the tone, tenor and message strikingly similar. The main difference would have been a shift in focus from Laos – and by extension, Indochina – in 1961, to Thailand on the mainland and to the Philippines in maritime Southeast Asia.

That is, a shift from countries six decades ago whose governments the US was propping up, to those today with which it has increasingly uncertain relations. And, of course, two weeks after that recent imaginary briefing, Myanmar would have been added to the list overnight.

The reason for the briefing, however –and for the policy it was intended to inform – would have been nearly identical: an assertive People’s Republic of China with growing influence in Southeast Asia.

The Indo-Pacific Directorate, the largest within the new National Security Council, reflects the importance the Biden administration is placing on the region. It is led by former assistant secretary Kurt Campbell, well known to Southeast Asia, three China directors and up to 17 other officials.

In his first major speech, Blinken himself characterized US-China relations as the “biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century.” China was the only country-specific foreign policy issue among the eight he explicitly addressed, and perhaps not since the start of the War on Terror 20 years ago has there been an issue with such broad bipartisan support.

With the exceptions of climate change and nuclear proliferation, for which Biden has revisited his vice-presidential view of China as a “cooperative partner,” President Biden is set to continue his predecessor’s characterization of Beijing as a “peer competitor.”

Even more so than it was for Kennedy, who inherited a global Cold War, Southeast Asia will be for President Biden one of the most pivotal regions of his foreign policy. Diplomatically, he will seek to make up for influence lost to China. Militarily, he will prepare for – although not precipitate – a regional security crisis involving China on some level.

This is not to predict that such a crisis will in fact occur, but rather that Biden will take into account the 2018 assessment of the US Indo-Pacific Commander that “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”

Concerning diplomacy – which he has pledged to privilege in his foreign policy – President Biden will continue rebuilding the State Department. Thailand experienced a 17-month period without a US ambassador until March last year, while vacancies in the Philippines, Singapore, current ASEAN chair Brunei and at ASEAN itself all precede his inauguration. Singapore’s vacancy dates back to Trump’s inauguration.

Secretary Blinken’s calls to the foreign ministers of Thailand and the Philippines the day after his confirmation demonstrate that bilateral relations will retain their place in Biden’s diplomacy toolbox, and that bilateral alliances will be given broader meaning. At the same time, multilateralism will likely prove the more widely and publicly used tactic.

After not one but two years of superficial US representation at ASEAN summits hosted by Thailand and Vietnam, expect four years of perfect attendance in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia and Laos PDR by either the president, the vice-president or the secretary of state.

The Trump administration deserves credit for raising the profile of the Mekong River and its economic subregion, which many see as mainland Southeast Asia’s equivalent of the South China Sea. While it is too early to assess the effectiveness of Trump’s Mekong-US Partnership, which replaced the Obama administration’s Lower Mekong Initiative, engagement under Biden is set to rise in response to China’s own Lancang-Mekong Cooperation forum.

And finally, as made plain by Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released by the White House earlier this month and by the nomination of Samantha Power as head of a newly elevated USAID, Biden will clearly if carefully reinject the promotion of democracy, human rights and the rule of law into Southeast Asian diplomacy.

This “values-based” approach may well be advanced in response to Myanmar’s recent coup, though tempered by the strain in bilateral relations caused by lump criticism of Thailand’s 2014 coup, and by America’s own domestic democratic recession.

Southeast Asia is also the front line militarily in America’s new peer competition with China, even more so than Northeast Asia where China is located. Bilateral defense treaties with Japan and South Korea are on solid ground – as are over 65,000 US troops between them.

North Korea admittedly remains unpredictable, but it falls within an area more of common interest between the US and China than of potential conflict. And where conflict is potential – namely over Taiwan – how it starts and ends will turn as much on contested and newly militarized islands, reefs and shoals in the South China Sea as it will on points further north.

Biden will ensure a repeat of the inaugural US-ASEAN naval exercises of 2019, engage the US-ASEAN Defense Forum and continue the inclusive flagship Cobra Gold exercises. But in the reverse of his diplomatic tactics, he will otherwise focus far more on bilateral than multilateral defense relations.

After all, Thailand – also a major non-NATO ally – and the Philippines are the only two Southeast Asian nations party to the 1954 Manila Pact.

At the same time, Biden’s Southeast Asia policy will also face headwinds largely beyond his control. Collectively, the region consistently advocates two principles in its dealings with external powers: neutrality – “Don’t make us choose a side” – and “ASEAN centrality.”

These principles are mutually exclusive. While ASEAN is the oldest piece of abundant regional architecture and sits squarely at the center of the Indo-Pacific, centrality means more than pedigree and more than geography. It means leveraging those positions to the point of becoming essential, to becoming the institution whose views and voice on any major issue implicating the Indo-Pacific must be accounted for and at times even deferred to.

Yet, concerning the paramount geopolitical issue of our time, the meeting of the global powers on ASEAN’s very doorstep, the institution rushes to the periphery. And there it remains, well, peripheral, sacrificing its potential centrality for a neutrality that places it at the mercy of the great powers.

“Don’t force us to choose” is thus merely a reactive request, rather than the basis of a proactive and agency-driven policy.

This poses a challenge to Biden since China has benefitted from ASEAN neutrality, allowing it to deal with its member states on a strictly bilateral basis, rather than face a unified – and potentially opposing – voice on issues of contention between Washington and Beijing.

On the other hand, Southeast Asia, by almost any measure, may be the most diverse region in the world, as reflected in an ASEAN whose construction, although indigenous, recalls the colonial era divisions and definitions it had to contend with.

It is fair to ask what the average policymaker in, say, the Philippine islands – Catholic, English-speaking and several seas away – has in common with a counterpart in, say, Myanmar, host to an official 135 ethnic minorities and bordering both China and India.

What do policymakers in a land-locked Laos of just seven million mostly Buddhist citizens have in common with their counterparts in a Muslim-majority Indonesian archipelago with a population 39 times as large?

Unwittingly or otherwise, the Trump administration’s emphasis on bilateralism was thus a recognition of certain realities that are not going way, and that Biden will need to account for by way of not one, but 11, Southeast Asia policies: ASEAN and each of its 10 member states.

More to the point, and in sharp contrast to Kennedy’s time, Southeast Asian countries do not see China nearly so predictably, or as congruently with the American point of view, as they did 60 years ago.

Talk of a new Cold War may have equal traction in Washington and in regional capitals, but participation at all in such a standoff – much less in ways Washington would prefer – is a very different story. Again, one need look no further than treaty allies Thailand and the Philippines for the most dramatic expression of this changed and changing landscape.

In the end and in conclusion, whether President Biden’s policy on Southeast Asia is successful will depend not only on America’s ability to compete with Beijing, but also on Southeast Asia’s calculation of its own interests.

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Benjamin Zawacki is a senior program specialist in The Asia Foundation’s Southeast Asia program and the author of Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the US and a Rising China. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author, not those of The Asia Foundation. This story first appeared on The Asia Foundation’s website and is republished with permission. To see the original, please click here

While the Forests Are Burning

April 12th, 2021 by Nepali Times

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Nagarkot’s Datadol forest is the latest to experience a wildfire, as a series of fire incidents continue to be reported from across the country.

A fire sparked off by ‘unknown causes’, according to the local residents, engulfed major parts of the forest on Saturday, starting at around 5PM. It took three fire trucks, assisted by local men, several hours into the night to douse the fire.

There had been smaller fires incidents in the community forest in the past, but locals say they had never seen anything of the scale recorded on Saturday night.

“We’ve no idea how the fire started,” Bane Tamanag, a Nagarkot resident told Nepali Times.

Local residents said they were not aware what had started the fire. Similar feedback has been reported in other forest fire incidents in other parts of the country, with witnesses saying the source of the fire was unknown.

Click here to read the full article.

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Featured image is from AMIT MACHAMASI

US: Indian Ocean Is Not India’s Ocean

April 12th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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The guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones sailing past Lakshadweep Islands April 7 has thrown India’s Sinophobes into confusion. One leading daily noted it as a “rare falling out between the two partners in the Quad grouping.” An anti-China analyst tweeted that it’s just a “botched PR exercise” on the part of Americans. 

The Ministry of External Affairs took a legalistic perspective as if it is answering a writ petition in the Delhi High Court. But, reflect seriously. Yes, this is a rare fracas within the cosy Quad family. Yet, Quad is a toddler. What all can happen when President Biden grooms it into a boisterous adolescent?

Make no mistake, what happened is the military equivalent of what the great American diplomat-scholar George Kennan once wrote about the oil reserves in Persian Gulf — they are “our resources”, he wrote, integral to America’s prosperity and, therefore, the US should take control of them. (Which it did, of course.) 

The ocean beds of South China Sea and Indian Ocean are sitting on unimaginable wealth of mineral resources — potentially, the last frontier. USS John Paul Jones acted like a dog marking the lamp post. Spectre of acute future big-power scramble — not only with China or Russia but also involving European rivals — haunts Washington. With all their tragic colonial history, Indians tend to forget. 

Thus, after 65 years, Britain is returning to “east of Suez”. The 65000-tonne HMS Queen Elizabeth, Britain’s newest aircraft carrier, is sailing to the Indian Ocean in its inaugural deployment. The grandiloquent title of the impressive 114-page document released last month by the British PM Boris Johnson says it all — Global Britain in a competitive age : The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy. 

The document says rather explicitly on Page 66-69 under the sub-title The Indo-Pacific tilt :

“Indo-Pacific is the world’s growth engine: home to half the world’s people; 40% of global GDP; some of the fastest- growing economies; at the forefront of new global trade arrangements; leading and adopting digital and technological innovation and standards; investing strongly in renewables and green tech; and vital to our goals for investment and resilient supply chains. The Indo- Pacific already accounts for 17.5% of UK global trade and 10% of inward FDI and we will work to build this further, including through new trade agreements, dialogues and deeper partnerships in science, technology and data.” 

It concludes:

“We (Britain) will also place a greater emphasis than before on the Indo-Pacific, reflecting its importance to many of the most pressing global challenges in the coming decade, such as maritime security and competition linked to laws, rules and norms.” 

Again, the month of April will see French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian arriving in India to pursue political dialogue with India, and, importantly, the 42,500 tonne Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is leading a strike force to exercise with INS Vikramaditya in two phases in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. 

Without this “big picture”, India will keep counting the trees for the wood. There are four things about the US Navy 7th Fleet statement on Friday that arrest attention. One, it asserts in the very first sentence that this freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) took place “inside India’s exclusive economic zone, without requesting India’s prior consent.” 

Two, the statement rubs it in:

“India requires prior consent for military exercises or manoeuvres in its exclusive economic zone or continental shelf, a claim inconsistent with international law. This freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea recognised in international law by challenging India’s excessive maritime claims.” 

Now, don’t the Indians know it? Of course, they do. But the US must proclaim it to the entire IOR including Pakistan — and European capitals alike — that India’s vaulting ambitions will not go unchecked.

Three, the US Navy statement flags that FONOP “demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.” Now, interestingly, this is Mike Pompeo’s standard anti-China language.  Plainly put, this is not a freak (“rare”) event. Besides, it’s the Arabian Sea now, but it can be Bay of Bengal tomorrow; it’s a warship sailing by today but tomorrow it can be The Dragon Lady lurking in the Indian skies at 70000 ft asserting the US prerogative to operate in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

Four, the statement has been issued since the Indians failed to take seriously that the FONOP are “routine and regular… as we have done in the past.” Presumably, Delhi hushed up such previous incidents. But the FONOP missions “are not about one country, nor are they about making political statements.” Simply put, the US regards India’s EEZ as part of “global commons” where it will exercise its (perceived) prerogative to act in its supreme national interests, as it deems fit. The “defining partnership of the 21st century” with India will not inhibit Washington from pursuit of American interests.  

The bottom line is that in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India should not punch above its weight. It may not be a coincidence that Washington administered this firm stricture within earshot of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly-publicised High Level Virtual Event on Thursday with Wavel Ramkalawan, Prime Minister of Seychelles, for “the joint e-inauguration of several development assistance projects funded by India in Seychelles and the handing over of a Fast Patrol Vessel supplied by India for the use of the Seychelles Coast Guard.” 

Modi dramatically called Ramkalawan the “son of India”, alluding to the ex-pastor’s Bihari family lineage. But Washington regards Ramkalawan as the doggedly nationalistic leader of an IOR island nation that is a difficult neighbour, separated by a mere 1894 kilometres of blue waters from Diego Garcia. The establishment of a top secret military asset by India in Seychelles’s Assumption Island is bad enough but Modi Govt’s reported plans of setting up a military base in that island nation is an entirely different proposition. (For all one knows, the media leak bears the stamp of the US intelligence.)   

Unsurprisingly, Delhi gave a supine response to the Pentagon warning — straight out of Chanakya’s rule book. However, now that the US warships have disappeared over the horizon, let us sit upon the ground and reflect sadly where all the heady Quad (“Asian NATO”) misadventure is taking India. 

The heart of the matter is that the ruling elites’ seething sense of rivalry over China’s rise is engendering a warped Indian mindset. The Chinese commentators have been warning the Indian establishment repeatedly that its big power aspirations in the IOR are unrealistic. They were speaking from experience. In fact, contrary to the Indian narrative that Quad membership can be leveraged to extract concessions from China, Beijing thinks that Quad is more India and Russia’s geopolitical headache, but it would intrinsically have no future, given internal contradictions. 

The Chinese scholars have consistently held the view that although the mainstream of the US-Indian cooperation nowadays has been cooperation instead of competition, “in the specific case of the Indian Ocean, their respective strategic views on the regional power structure are deeply rooted and these will become more and more obvious in the case of the power shift” — to quote from the prominent Chinese scholar Chunhao Lou, Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations headquartered in Beijing. 

In a 2012 essay titled US-India-China Relations in the Indian Ocean: A Chinese Perspective, the leading scholar added, “Although the China factor will always be there to promote US-India cooperation, the ‘democratic peace theory’ will give way to realistic politics, and the differing interests of the US and India in the IOR will be difficult to reconcile.” Chickens are coming home to roost. 

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Featured image: Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones prepares to pull alongside aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (File photo) 

Fatuous Defence: Australia’s Guided Missile Plans

April 8th, 2021 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

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Even in times of pandemic crises, some things never change.  While Australia gurgles and bumbles slowly with its COVID-19 vaccine rollout, there are other priorities at stake.  Threat inflators are receiving much interest in defence, and the media is feeding on it with a drunken enthusiasm.  We live in a dangerous environment, and think-tankers, parliamentarians and commentators are starting to get a sweet taste for imminent conflict.

The latest instalment in this pitiable train towards conflict was revealed in Canberra last month.  Australia, it seems, wants to make its own guided missiles.  In a joint statement, the Prime Minister and Ministers for Industry and Defence outlined the enterprise.  “The Morrison government will accelerate the creation of a (AU)$1 billion Sovereign Guided Weapons Enterprise, boosting skilled jobs and helping secure Australia’s sovereign defence capabilities.” 

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison outlined his views in a media release on March 31.  “Creating our own sovereign capability on Australian soil is essential to keep Australians safe, while also providing thousands of local jobs in business right across the defence supply chain.” 

In making the announcement, he opted for a chalk and cheese comparison. “As the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, having the ability for self-reliance, be it in vaccine development or the defence of Australia, is vital to meeting our own requirements in a changing global environment.”  That specious idea ignores the point that the weapons are going to be made, not by Australian arms companies (they can barely even manage any credible local production) but by foreign entities. 

Australia’s Department of Defence is on the hunt for a “strategic industry partner”, which, in all likelihood will be one of the giants such as Raytheon Australia, BAE Systems Australia or Lockheed Martin Australia.  The mere fact that such companies have tagged Australia at the end of their antipodean corporate base is no reassurance about a local killing capability.  But the newly appointed Defence Minister Peter Dutton gives the impression that the selection will be somehow competitive and balanced, promising to resort to a “Smart Buyer” process in picking the said partner.  Such smartness is bound to be bereft of any intelligence, as with previous procurement deals that go pear shaped within a matter of months.  (At this writing, the Australian-Naval Group future submarine contract is sinking under incompetence, disagreement and cost.) 

Dutton praises the idea of having an Australian base for the manufacture of such guided weapons, as they will “not only benefit and enhance our ADF operational capacity but will ensure we have adequate supply of weapon stock holdings to sustain combat operations if global supply chains are disrupted.”  Given Australia’s poor performance in coping with disruptions to the supply of COVID-19 vaccines, despite the propaganda about sovereign capability in that field, this is actually mildly amusing.

We already know from government mutterings that the US will be crucial (when is it not?) in feathering the Australian project, giving it a faux independence.  The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, heavily commercialised, compromised and bound to the US-Australian insecurity complex, prattles constantly about the need to get involved with useless machinery that only serves to inspire the arms manufacturers of other countries. 

Take this number from Andrew Davies from last month, thinking that it might not be such a bad idea to get on board the hypersonic weapons bandwagon.  Australia, he suggested, “might well join” the major powers in acquiring them.  The country, he claims, has “some world class researchers”.  The nub: Australians have been “in joint programs with the US for over 20 years.”

The announcement about guided missiles excited ASPI’s director of defence, strategy and national security, Michael Shoebridge, a man who has been salivating for a proper war for some few years now.  The latest initiative was “being driven by the two Cs, China and COVID.”  Shoebridge fantasises about long-range anti-ship missiles and new vehicles with missile capabilities.  In June last year, he warned of “a glaring gap we must close in our ability to supply the Australian Defence Force with precision munitions – notably missiles.  Advanced missiles give the militaries the edge in combat.”  His nightmare: Australian impotence in the face of supply disruptions; a slow production rate from overseas sources; abandonment.  This is particularly more acute given that Australia is no longer interested in peacekeeping missions.  Blame, he says, “the deteriorating strategic environment in our region” – a real favourite expression in the Prime Minister’s office and ASPI.

With Canberra making it clear that it wishes to continue a hissing and booing campaign against China even as it ingratiates Washington, the entire process has a heavy tang of needless stupidity.  As to whether it actually benefits Australia in any concrete sense, a clue is offered by Dutton.  “We will work closely with the United States on this important initiative to ensure that we understand how our enterprise can best support both Australia’s needs and the growing needs of our most important military partner.”  If that is sovereign capability and independence, one hates to think what vassalage looks like.

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Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research. Email: [email protected]

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With the US and Japan all but officially teaming up in trying to encircle China in the Pacific, Beijing has made the most significant military display yet, sending an aircraft carrier group between Japanese islands and Taiwan.

On Monday morning, China announced it sent an aircraft carrier group through a location known as the Miyako Strait, an island chain which bridges the gap between the Pacific Ocean and the East China Sea. The area largely consists of Japanese waters and has several strategic islands such as Okinawa, the disputed territory of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, and bridging down to Taiwan itself. As Beijing sent the Liaoning steaming through this location, Tokyo sent a destroyer to monitor it. The Global Times later posted a triumphant article stating that China intends to do more of these exercises, and that its naval capabilities will only continue to grow.

Military tensions between China and Japan are not new, and anyone with even the most basic knowledge of Asia will be aware that it has a long history. Whilst there have been lots of mini standoffs with coastguard boats around the disputed islands recently, the move of sending an entire aircraft carrier group up near Japanese waters is in fact new and raises the stakes dramatically. Beijing wants to send a strong message to Tokyo, which has recently affirmed its alliance with the United States under Biden and publicly pledged to involve itself, albeit ambiguously, in any Taiwan contingency, with its prime minister also set to visit Washington soon. As a result, China is flexing its muscles in this strategic area. There’s more to come.

Japan and China both have eyes on the Miyako Strait and the Ryukyu island chain as a strategically essential location. It forms a broader segment of regional geography known as ‘the first island chain’ – stretching all the way from Russia’s Far East, incorporating Japan itself, Okinawa, the island of Taiwan, and down into the South China Sea. The key point is that it completely surrounds China’s naval periphery. Therefore, whoever dominates this area has the advantage in any conflict involving Beijing. China sees naval and air superiority over this space as essential to its own national security and likewise does Tokyo, which believes that losing parity over this region means Japan in its entirety becomes vulnerable to Chinese naval hegemony.

For Tokyo, balancing against Chinese power means the island of Taiwan becomes an essential chess piece. If China was to gain control over Taiwan, then Beijing subsequently gains a monopoly of the entire strait itself and the encirclement of Japan is complete. This has led Tokyo to strengthen its alliance with the United States and the Quad initiative countries in order to push back, producing the rare affirmation that the US and Japan ought to work together in a Taiwan war. In America’s own war planning for this region, as revealed in recently declassified documents from the Trump administration, Washington’s goal is to try and prevent China from dominating the first island chain outright, and to maintain supremacy over the second in the wider Pacific. Japan is obviously a key partner for this.

Japan and China both have eyes on the Miyako Strait and the Ryukyu island chain as a strategically essential location. It forms a broader segment of regional geography known as ‘the first island chain’ – stretching all the way from Russia’s Far East, incorporating Japan itself, Okinawa, the island of Taiwan, and down into the South China Sea. The key point is that it completely surrounds China’s naval periphery. Therefore, whoever dominates this area has the advantage in any conflict involving Beijing. China sees naval and air superiority over this space as essential to its own national security and likewise does Tokyo, which believes that losing parity over this region means Japan in its entirety becomes vulnerable to Chinese naval hegemony.

For Tokyo, balancing against Chinese power means the island of Taiwan becomes an essential chess piece. If China was to gain control over Taiwan, then Beijing subsequently gains a monopoly of the entire strait itself and the encirclement of Japan is complete. This has led Tokyo to strengthen its alliance with the United States and the Quad initiative countries in order to push back, producing the rare affirmation that the US and Japan ought to work together in a Taiwan war. In America’s own war planning for this region, as revealed in recently declassified documents from the Trump administration, Washington’s goal is to try and prevent China from dominating the first island chain outright, and to maintain supremacy over the second in the wider Pacific. Japan is obviously a key partner for this.

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Tom Fowdy is a British writer and analyst of politics and international relations with a primary focus on East Asia.

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Video: What Is Australia’s Problem with China?

April 8th, 2021 by Brian Berletic

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Australia continues to double down on its growing trade and political row with China. 

It is costing the Australian economy significantly, and backing it into a strategic corner only greater belligerence toward China and subordination to US regional ambitions will remain as options.

I explain in this video the deadend this represents as a foreign policy, and the foreign special interests encouraging Australia’s current government to move the nation in this direction.

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Brian Berletic, formally known under the pen name “Tony Cartalucci” is a geopolitical researcher, writer, and video producer (YouTube hereOdysee here, and BitChute here) based in Bangkok, Thailand. He is a regular contributor to New Eastern Outlook and more recently, 21st Century Wire. You can support his work via Patreon here.

Sources

Nikkei Asia – China determined to build iron ore hub in Africa as Australia goes Quad: https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/China-determined-to-build-iron-ore-hub-in-Africa-as-Australia-goes-Quad

Reuters – Africa’s miners and winemakers toast China’s row with Australia:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-china-trade-idUSKBN2AA0SO

ABC Australia – Australia to produce its own guided missiles as part of billion-dollar defence manufacturing plan:  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-31/government-weapons-facility-guided-missiles-made-in-australia/100039990

Australian Strategic Policy Institute – Funding: https://www.aspi.org.au/about-aspi/funding

Australian Strategic Policy Institute – Funding (PDF): https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-03/ASPI%20by%20the%20numbers%2019-20.pdf?7zWjlTgji6uCH5SOC14LFLjAcsyOckue=

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Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, arrived in India this Monday to discuss several geopolitical matters, including important deals, such as the P-75i submarine project and also the AK-203 rifle’s local production in Uttar Pradesh’s Amethi. Other topics of discussion were the Indian stance on the Afghan peace talks with the Taliban and also the forthcoming BRICS summit. The upcoming India-Russia annual summit was also discussed – Indian growing ties with QUAD is a concern for Moscow. The purchase of the S-400 air-defence missile system was expected to be discussed but Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam  Jaishankar stated this shall be discussed at a defense ministers meeting sometime later this year.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently raised the issue of the S-400 systems in his first visit to India during a meeting with the Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. The US has been threatening New Delhi with sanctions. In late March, Indian senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ideologue Subramanian Swamy tweeted that purchasing the S400 system will result in India being “expelled” from QUAD by the US. This was an amazing statement. Could this be so?

Last year, in November, India and the US did sign a game-changer defence deal. However, Indo-Russian relations go way deeper. Russian-Indian alignment started in the 1950s and rose tremendously over the past two decades. Both countries agree on multipolarity and multilateralism prevailing in the global world.

Washington has threatened New Delhi with sanctions more than once – invoking their Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) – a federal law that imposed sanctions on Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This piece of legislation was signed into law by then President Trump in 2017. Trump himself claimed he believed the Act had serious flaws but signed it nonetheless. It provides sanctions for activities pertaining to any transactions with the Russian intelligence and defence sectors. It is a federal law that can backfire and actually discourage some middle powers from enhancing their defence relationship with the US (to avoid compromising their autonomy).

The Modi government has stressed it has a diversified portfolio. New Delhi in fact  has used Russian systems for years. Plus,  India started the process to purchase the Russian system before the CAATSA was introduced. Nevertheless, the US keeps threatening their ally. In January the US imposed sanctions on Turkey over the buying of the same missile system from Russia. This apparently demonstrates that the US is willing to implement and reinforce CAATSA, some analysts argue.

For India, such a defence system update will be very welcome. Indian rivals and neighbors – China and Pakistan – have advanced fighter jets with long range missiles. The S-400 is the most advanced surface-to-air missile defence system globally: it can track and destroy spy planes, drones, missiles and could even intercept Chinese hypersonic ballistic missiles. Moreover, switching to a different system would certainly cause a kind of operational void – and this is not an option (even for just a few years). Such “void” in the Indian air space would jeopardize a strategic warfare domain and this would not even be in the US best interests regarding the Indo-Pacific region.

Besides, many other defence equipment items that India procures from Russia could invite American sanctions. And we are talking about a very strong level of Indo-Russian cooperation which comprises joint military exercises and some key agreements signed.

Be it nuclear submarines, fourth-generation aircrafts, cruise missiles, New Delhi has counted on Moscow over the years to arm its military. According to Daniel Kliman (a senior fellow of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security), Russia is an essential partner for India because it has been showing willingness to share sensitive technology and has offered somewhat more relaxed standards for transfers in contrast to US guidelines on copyrights and classified technology. The truth is that India needs Russia and this will not change over the next several decades.

To sum it up, New Delhi cannot possibly cease to purchase defence systems and equipment from Moscow to comply with a quite bizarre American piece of legislation.  If the US enforces such sanctions, it would have much to lose: Indian-US defence trade today is worth more than $20 billion.

The US has indeed “punished” Turkey (a NATO ally), but India is no Turkey. Its importance is far greater. Its geographical position in the Himalayas make it a kind of geopolitical pivot or even a “pivot of world peace”, as defence analyst and retired Indian army officer Anil Kumar Lal describes it.

The American threats against India in all likelihood are an instance of rhetoric and bad diplomacy. So, India is likely to join China and Turkey in purchasing the Russian S-400 system.

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Uriel Araujo is a researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts.

Featured image is from InfoBrics

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The rapid growth of the gig economy, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, has boosted the coffers of the international tech giants. By the end of last year the meal delivery sector had grown by more than 100%. Uber posted a 40% increase in profit.

But those people working for Uber and Deliveroo have not been on the receiving end of the boom. Because gig economy companies are able to claim that their workforce are independent contractors, they can erode labour standards and pay workers less than the minimum wage.

A December Actuaries Institute podcast pointed out that gig workers have “no employment rights under the Commonwealth Fair Work Act to legal minimum pay rates, sick leave, or unfair dismissal protections”.

Its research confirmed previous findings that gig economy workers are over-represented in sections of the workforce with less bargaining power — students, those who have been unemployed and young people.

The death of five meal delivery riders in two months at the end of last year shone the spotlight on delivery riders’ conditions.

Another delivery rider was seriously injured on March 12. The 20-year-old was rushed to hospital with severe head injuries after being hit by a car in Sydney’s south.

The Transport Workers Union (TWU) has started a campaign aimed at Uber and Deliveroo. It is seeking justice for delivery and ride share drivers who have been unfairly dismissed, injured at work or have been pressured to work faster than is safely possible.

At a vigil outside the Sydney Uber Eats headquarters last November, TWU national secretary Tim Kaine said that the drivers were a vital part of the economy and one reason why Australia had managed so well during the pandemic.

Uber and other meal delivery companies have been “allowed to get away with trampling on workers’ rights and risking their lives,” Kaine said.

Those rallies and vigils organised after the drivers’ deaths helped focus a national spotlight on the drivers’ poor conditions which, in turn, has forced Uber to offer some concessions.

For instance, it was recently announced that delivery riders will now be supplied with safety gear including lights, reflective vests, bells and phone holders.

A new feature on the Uber app will detect whether riders are wearing a helmet before they can accept jobs, though Uber are still not offering drivers free helmets.

While new safety measures are welcome, the onus remains on the drivers to complete a mandatory roadworthiness checklist of their bike. It maintains responsibility with the riders and may be used to punish and restrict riders whose bikes are not up to standard.

In March, the TWU started pushing for delivery companies to pay the fines given to riders for breaking road rules, while trying to meet unrealistic delivery deadlines. It said that workers are being unfairly punished for the companies’ business model.

Conditions improving?

While gig economy workers are often forced to choose between safety and making enough to live on, there is some hope following several TWU wins to protect delivery workers, including unfair dismissal cases against Deliveroo and Foodora.

The campaign for rights has been bolstered by a landmark case in the British Supreme Court in February that ruled that Uber drivers are workers, not contractors.

Two former Uber drivers, James Farrar and Yaseen Aslam, took Uber to an employment tribunal in 2016, arguing that they worked for Uber and should receive associated workers’ rights.

They won the case and are now General Secretary and President of the App Drivers and Couriers Union. Uber appealed the case three times, only to lose in the Supreme Court.

Uber claims it is simply a matchmaking service for passengers and drivers. However, the Supreme Court ruled that there was “no factual basis” for that claim.

The judgement referenced five major controls that Uber has over drivers including: the rates charged for rides; the terms of company contracts; the Uber rating system as a performance management system; the determination of which jobs are offered to drivers and penalties for rejecting jobs; and the fact that drivers cannot market themselves outside of the Uber app.

Uber has now been forced to pay workers the minimum wage and offer pensions and holiday pay in Britain. In Australia, the TWU is urging the federal government to regulate the gig economy.

The court ruling has given hope to the campaign here. The major difference is that Britain has three categories of worker — employee, contractor and worker — whereas Australia only has employee and contractor categories.

It will be more difficult for gig economy workers to achieve employee status here than it was to achieve worker status in Britain.

However, the Supreme Court ruling sets up a good foundation for the case to be made.

The union campaign for gig economy workers’ rights has to continue as the corporate giants fight back. Uber Eats drivers and riders are now required to hold Australian Business Numbers, making it harder for drivers to argue that they are only employees.

This change was pushed by Uber Eats after it settled a case with a driver outside court to avoid the case being appealed to the Federal Court.

Kaine described the change as “a sign of absolute desperation”. The TWU are pushing for a new independent tribunal to monitor the gig economy and ensure workers are not disadvantaged.

November 25 vigil in Sydney for Uber drivers killed at work. Photo: Peter Boyle

Opposition leader Anthony Albanese has committed Labor to improve conditions for gig economy workers if it is elected to govern.

In February, Labor pledged to make job security a priority including legislating for workers’ entitlements in insecure industries and for a cap on back-to-back short-term contracts for the same position. Daniel Mookhey MLC has been named as shadow minister for the gig economy.

The Greens, which opposed the government’s industrial relations “omnibus bill” said it was a priority to “outlaw insecure work and protect gig economy workers”. Greens leader Adam Bandt has previously sought support for a private members’ bill to classify gig economy workers as employees, to allow them to receive minimum pay and rights.

Kaine said that the small improvements that have been won are “down to the bravery and tenacity of food delivery riders” and added that the union would continue to speak out against the “Silicon Valley behemoths”.

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Featured image: Sydney vigil in November 2020 for Uber drivers killed at work. Photo: Peter Boyle

Hindi War Films Which Also Give a Message of Peace

April 7th, 2021 by Bharat Dogra

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War films can easily degenerate into war propaganda and narrow nationalism. However there are other war films which vividly bring out the inherent pain and destructiveness of war in sensitive ways and hence, whatever their story content,  also convey a message of peace. It is true that war films made in any  country are often aimed at bringing out mainly the courage of its soldiers in battlefield, but even such themes handled with sensitivity can convey a message of peace.

Haqeekat, a war film made with a lot of sensitivity and commitment by Chetan Anand, is perhaps the most durable war film    made in Hindi cinema. When we see this film, the great sense of dedication with which this film has been made by various members of the film unit comes across very clearly, whether in acting or in the great songs which are still widely used for their inspirational as well as sad content—songs like kar chale ham fida and ho ke majboor mujhe.

Haqeeqat (1995).jpg

Let us recall the background to this film. The defeat in China War of 1962 was seen as a great debacle in India. There was a lot of criticism, and an overwhelming sadness. The country had to come out of this.  Chetan Anand starts  with this aim. This is a war film which sets out not to glorify any victory but to make defeat acceptable without losing honor. The way forward Anand finds is to  focus on just one point of very courageous resistance  by Indian soldiers. Of course despite the defeat and the debacle there were some cases of Indian soldiers fighting very bravely in very difficult conditions. Instead of going into the wider debacle  or its causes Chetan Anand just focuses on one case of very courageous resistance. So he can still remain close to truth in the part selected by him, without going into the wider controversial details.

His point of courageous resistance is then inter-woven with love-stories and close human ties being threatened to make a poignant and sensitive story which brings out the tragedy of war. Hence the film supports myths at some levels but in ways which are not harmful and provide solace to people. On the other hand the sensitive handling of the various situations, the relationships, the songs also leave a lasting  anti-war message, a message of the futility of war, in ways where this does not appear to be an imposed message at all.

In another film Hindustan Ki Kasam Chetan Anand takes up the Indo-Pak war of 1965. This time the context is  of Air force rather than of army . While this film celebrates the courage and skills of Indian fighter pilots, the impact in terms of the devastation caused in a single family of exceptionally courageous and committed members is brought out very vividly. Hence this film also  conveys an overwhelming message of peace, a message of futility of war.

Hindustan Ki Kasam (1999).jpg

In contrast to these predominantly war films, Usne Kaha Tha, a film of Bimal Roy Productions, is not primarily a war film but instead a love story. This is based on the famous short story of the same title written by Chandradhar Sharma Guleri. However in film the anti-war message is more emphasized than in the story. The song which is filmed against the background of departing soldiers Jaane Wale Sipahi se Poochho Wo Kahaan Jaa Raha Hai ( Ask the departing soldier where he is headed for) can perhaps be called the most defining anti-war song of Hindi cinema.

These are only a few examples which reveal how war themes can also be treated in ways which ultimately leave a message of peace. Another remarkable film made by V.Shantaram titled Dr. Kotnis Ki Amar Kahani focuses on the courageous and dedicated services of a great doctor from India ( a real-life story) to Chinese soldiers and people during the Second World War. This film  still reminds people of the need and importance of friendship  between India and China even though times have  changed to feelings of hostility and suspicion. This film also has a story of tender love running alongside the main story of great sacrifices and commitment.  This again reminds us of how often love stories have been interwoven with war themes to bring out the tragic impacts of wars on humanity and human relationships.

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Bharat Dogra is a journalist and author. His recent books include Man Over Machine and Sachai Ki Kasam ( Hindi short stories).

Featured image is from Countercurrents

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After a series of coal-slurry spills into the Malinau River in Indonesian Borneo, locals and environmental groups are calling for tougher sanctions, and for national banks to divest from the coal industry.

The latest spill in February at a facility operated by PT Kayan Putra Utama Coal (KPUC) in North Kalimantan province killed thousands of fish and forced downstream municipalities to cut off their water supplies.

The government of Malinau district in North Kalimantan immediately issued a decree requesting that the company repair embankments, establish a system of inspections, develop a rapid response plan, and replace the dead fish. The company itself apologized, pledging to provide clean water and reseed the river with fish and shrimp larvae.

However, the Mining Advocacy Network (Jatam), a watchdog group, says these steps are not enough to exact reform.

“This is not a sanction but a recommendation,” said Andri Usman of Jatam.

KPUC was in 2017 required to shut down its operations for 60 days following a similar spill by another miner in the same region. That company, along with KPUC and two others, subsequently signed an agreement that if another spill occurred, their mining licenses would be revoked.

“The 2017 sanctions are heavier than now, while the current impact is more severe than the 2017 case,” Usman said.

Dead fish collected by locals from the polluted Malinau River. Image courtesy of Rosiena Kila.

Jatam suggested the light penalty is linked to the fact that one of KPUC’s owners is a prominent businessman who backed the election of the current deputy governor of North Kalimantan, Yansen Tipa Padan. Prior to being elected, Yansen was the Malinau district head when the current mining permits were initially approved. The previous deputy governor, Udin Hianggio, is a part owner of two other coal companies, including PT Baradinamika Muda Sukses (BMS), which was responsible for the 2017 slurry spill. The fourth company cited in that incident is owned by the son of the former Malinau district chief, Marthin Billa.

Muhammad Jamil from Jatam’s national office points to several laws on the books that could be cited to impose penalties on KPUC, including the suspension or revocation of permits, or bringing criminal charges for environmental destruction.

“Neither the district environmental agency nor the water board will talk about these impacts,” Jamil said. “But this isn’t just about the waterway, but also the local community around the Malinau River. This is destroying livelihoods that depend on the river.”

According to Jamil, local police have several legal channels for pursuing real punishment for KPUC, including going after the company on the basis of the 2017 agreement that it signed.

“The problem is whether they want to or not. That’s what we’re waiting for. The path is clear, it’s just a matter of commitment,” Jamil said.

Ahmad Ashov from Bersihkan Indonesia is also working to end the trend of corporate environmental crimes going unpunished. He said the best way to prevent issues arising from the coal industry — which range from land disputes, to water pollution, to carbon emissions, to even higher susceptibility to COVID-19 — is to shut it down entirely.

“Let [the coal] remain in the ground,” Ashov said. “Because we already know the impact.”

Dead fish collected by locals from the polluted Malinau River. Image courtesy of Rosiena Kila.

A large part of what keeps the industry going is funding from banks, said A.H. Maftuchan, executive director of sustainable financing watchdog Perkumpulan Prakarsa. Six domestic banks — Bank Mandiri, BNI, BRI, BCA, BTN and Indonesia Eximbank — issued $6.29 billion in loans to coal companies between October 2018 and October 2020, he said.

Outside Indonesia, more than 130 globally significant banks have committed to divesting from coal mining or coal-fired power plants, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. However, money still flows into the country, including from China, which invested $9.3 billion into Indonesia’s coal-fired power between 2000 and 2019.

Maftuchan said he’s encouraged by the government’s Financial Services Authority (OKJ) recently publishing Phase II of its sustainable finance roadmap, which encourages financial institutions to apply environmental and social governance to their activities. However, critics say these guidelines are not enough without concrete actions, timelines for divestment, and strict enforcement.

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Featured image: A fisherman catches fish in the upper waters of the Malinau river; the river is an important resource for food in the region. Photo by Michael Padmanaba/CIFOR via Flickr.

Video: Myanmar: US-backed Opposition Is Armed

April 6th, 2021 by Brian Berletic

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After weeks of denying the violence carried out by US-backed opposition groups in Myanmar, US-funded propaganda outlets like “Myanmar Now” are finally admitting and making excuses for the opposition fighting government security forces with war weapons. 

The opposition has announced a parallel government the US is likely going to “recognize” and offer military support to – creating a catastrophe directly on China’s as well as Thailand’s borders in a chain of events identical to the US engineered “Arab Spring” and interventions in Libya and Syria in 2011.

Armed groups linking up with US-backed anti-government protesters represent US-British backed proxies armed and trained by the West for decades – including as colonial forces used by the British to occupy Myanmar – then called “Burma.”

Now just as they were under the British Empire, these ethnic militants are key to dividing and destroying Myanmar, denying it peace and stability, and denying its neighbors – including China and Thailand – a stable and prosperous partner.

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This article was originally published on the author’s blog site, Land Destroyer Report.

Brian Berletic, formally known under the pen name “Tony Cartalucci” is a geopolitical researcher, writer, and video producer (YouTube hereOdysee here, and BitChute here) based in Bangkok, Thailand. He is a regular contributor to New Eastern Outlook and more recently, 21st Century Wire. You can support his work via Patreon here

Sources

Myanmar Now (US NED-funded) – As slaughter of civilians continues, some decide it’s time to take up arms: https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/as-slaughter-of-civilians-continues-some-decide-its-time-to-take-up-arms

Columbia Journalism Review – Myanmar’s Other Reports (paragraph 19, Myanmar Now’s NED funding): https://www.cjr.org/special_report/myanmars-other-reporters.php

US National Endowment for Democracy – Burma (2020): https://www.ned.org/region/asia/burma-2020/

LD – West Grinds Development to a Halt in Myanmar (Burma) (2011): https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2011/12/fruits-of-globalization-regression.html

LD – Militants Threaten China’s OBOR Initiative in Myanmar (2018): https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2018/07/militants-threaten-chinas-obor.html

US National Endowment for Democracy – Burma (2020): https://www.ned.org/region/asia/burma-2020/

Will South Korea Become a QUAD+ Member?

April 5th, 2021 by Dr. Konstantin Asmolov

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The US government is seeking to include Korea in an expanded version of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic forum created in 2007 to contain China. The Quad is made up of Australia, India, Japan and the United States, but the US wants to expand it by inviting South Korea, New Zealand and Vietnam. This project is known as QUAD Plus.

So far the QUAD is relatively informal, but even under Trump there have been attempts to turn it into something greater, preferably the equivalent of an “Indo-Pacific NATO,” which would be both an economic and a military bloc. In this context, it is essentially a reincarnation of the concept of SEATO, but four countries are not enough for the functioning of a full-fledged military bloc, which is why it needs allies like South Korea and even Vietnam. As noted by US Deputy Secretary of State Steven Bigan:   “The Indo-Pacific region lacks strong multilateral structures. It has nothing like NATO or the European Union there.”

NEO expert Vladimir Terekhov notes that since late 2019, the QUAD has begun to become more institutionalized, but for now it remains one of many forums where the US and its allies discuss pressing regional issues. However, if its format is expanded, the likelihood of it becoming an “Asian NATO” will grow significantly.

The change of administration had no effect on these plans, and the anti-Beijing and anti-Pyongyang course only intensified. So on March 12, 2021, Joe Biden and his colleagues from Australia, India and Japan reaffirmed their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea and stressed the need to immediately resolve the issue of the Japanese citizen abducted by North Korea.

But Seoul does not want to damage its relations with Beijing and so far has shown a rather ambiguous stance.  When asked on September 25, 2020, ROK Foreign Minister Kang Gen-hwa was asked if her country would be willing to join Washington’s initiative to expand the QUAD, which currently includes Australia, Japan and India, her response was mostly negative. “We don’t think something that automatically shuts down and excludes the interests of others is a good idea“.

On November 13, 2020, Seo Joo-seok, deputy director of the National Security Administration, stated that South Korea had not received a formal request from the United States to join the QUAD.

On February 18, 2021, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed to meet regularly with his colleagues from the other three QUAD member countries. The agreement was reached during a virtual meeting attended by Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi.

On February 22, 2021, Ned Price of the US State Department stated that the United States will continue to develop the QUAD:

“This is an example of the United States and some of our closest partners coming together in the name of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”

On March 8, 2021, Hwang Ji-hwan, a member of the South Korean Presidential Policy Advisory Panel, told the American Journal that South Korea “may be considering joining the QUAD in an attempt to influence US policy toward North Korea”. Afterwards, however, First Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kyung disavowed this: “South Korea has consistently opposed the creation of a regional structure that excludes a particular country“.

On March 10, 2021, the Blue House stated that South Korea would consider joining the QUAD in a “transparent, open and inclusive” manner. Moreover, this time again, he did not confirm whether or not the US request for South Korean participation had been formal.

The QUAD issue has not yet been mentioned in the joint statements of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during their visit to South Korea or in the program of Defense Minister Seo Wook’s visit to India: “The upcoming talks will focus on defense cooperation between the two countries“.

Let us draw some conclusions. At the moment, the QUAD is more of a regional forum that has not yet acquired the features of a political or military bloc. This allows Seoul to maintain a certain distance and hold its ambiguous stance.

On the other hand, there has been no official request for Seoul to join the QUAD+, and without it, there has been no response.

It is likely that the United States expects that further confrontation with China and/or North Korea as a forced ally of China will lead to some developments that could push Seoul to join the QUAD as a necessary response. In this sense, the situation resembles the THAAD story, when Park Geun-hye said neither yes nor no for a long time, and then quickly and without prior preparation made this decision in the face of the North Korean nuclear tests.

From the author’s point of view, the accession of the ROK to the QUAD is inevitable — if not under Moon, then under his successor. At best, Seoul will reprimand itself with somewhat of a special status, which will allow this to be presented to domestic audiences as a diplomatic victory: “We negotiated, not capitulated.” The worst would be full acceptance of US conditions, very likely justified by the current activity of North Korea.

The fact that this has not happened so far is due, on the one hand, to fears of harsh Chinese sanctions and, on the other hand, to Moon Jae-in’s populist image as an independent politician. In this context, it is undesirable for Moon to take measures that would harm his public image, unless there is a clear justification in the form of, say, North Korean provocations. In addition, his status as a “lame duck,” which doesn’t really help him in the long-term future, for now allows Moon to stall for time. The process of forming an anti-Chinese alliance will take time in any case, its final stage could happen as early as 2022, and then the burden of choice will fall on his successor.

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Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of the Far East at the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

Featured image is from New Eastern Outlook

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Abstract: Drawing on Japanese press and TV reports, the authors explain the extraordinary costs of the decade long cleanup of the 3.11 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown, with no end to the process in sight.

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Many of the Japanese print and broadcast features related to the 10th anniversary of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami addressed the current circumstances of the people affected, with a recurring theme of how difficult it has been to move on, especially for those who lost loved ones. Among these stories was one that stood out like a rusty nail, since it covered a less sympathetic response to the crisis: greed.

A three-part series in the Asahi Shimbun focused on the city of Tamura in Fukushima prefecture, in particular a highland district called Utsushi-chiku with about 1,850 residents, mainly tobacco farmers. After a hydrogen explosion occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant on March 12, 2011, some fled, though they weren’t ordered to since Utsushi-chiku was outside the mandatory 20-kilometer evacuation zone. However, the government restricted the distribution of crops grown in the area, so agriculture was halted and the residents became worried about their livelihoods.

Then in the autumn the government allocated about ¥4 trillion to some 100 local governments to clean up the radiation that contaminated much of the area. As part of this work, residents of Utsushi-chiku were recruited to remove contaminated topsoil and clean exteriors of buildings in non-exclusion areas. Many were eager to sign up since no skills or experience were needed. About 450 residents, average age about 60, formed a special project team, supervised by local construction companies, that started doing cleanup work in November 2012. Each worker received a daily wage of ¥9,500, which the residents considered good pay. One woman in her 40s who described herself as a homemaker said there were few part-time jobs for women like herself in the area, so she hired on and worked between 2 and 5 days a week, 7-and-a-half hours a day, receiving around ¥150,000 a month. There was no work quota and, she reports, everyone enjoyed the neighborly camaraderie of toiling together.

The job officially ended in September 2014. The woman said she had made ¥3 million altogether, but there was more. The cleanup funds for her area that had come from the central government amounted to about ¥2.65 billion, of which ¥1.3 billion was left unspent, so all the workers received a kind of bonus. In the end, each made on average about ¥35,000 a day for all the work they did. The woman ended up getting an extra ¥7 million, which allowed her to send her son to a private university and buy a new car. Some workers received more than ¥10 million in additional pay. As the deputy team leader put it, “It was like money falling from the sky.”

According to a documentary special that aired on public broadcaster NHK in February, ¥5.6 trillion has so far been spent on decontaminating the areas surrounding the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, but not all of this money has been spent directly on cleanup activities, the goal of which was to bring the affected area back to “normal” as soon as possible so that evacuees could return to their homes. But ten years later that hasn’t happened, or, at least, not to the degree originally envisioned. After 90% of the work was finished, an estimated 60% of the radiation had been reduced, and the cleanup had become a self-generating public works project with its own profit motives for contractors and sub-contractors.

The central problem was the way the work was allocated. Ideally, the trade or education ministry should have been in charge, since both have experience in the nuclear energy field; or the construction ministry, which has extensive experience in large public works projects. However, the government chose the environment ministry, which has never carried out any large-scale public works. The other ministries, apparently, were loath to take on a job involving “waste.”

Usually, when a government entity orders work to be done, they set up a bidding process. In this case, there were multiple distinct areas targeted for cleanup, as well as various stages in the cleanup process. Under such circumstances, general contractors try to get all the work in a given area in order to maximize profits, and ideally, they will have no competition for bids, which means they can essentially charge whatever they want. When NHK examined the bid documents for the areas targeted for cleanup and related work, they found that 68 percent of the work orders only had one bidder. These sorts of public works normally generate a profit margin of 5%, but in this case, it was about 10%. As one environment ministry official admitted to NHK, they had no real idea about the competitive situation and didn’t know how to oversee the work.

As a result, there was a lot of misuse of funds. NHK looked at one subcontractor headquartered in the city of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, that was investigated by the tax authorities. The company’s president was described by others as being a big-hearted individual who had once worked at the nuclear power station himself and wanted to help his neighbors move back into the area. That’s why he started the company, with the intention of reconstructing the area. The company grew quickly. After only two years, its profits exceeded ¥10 billion, at which point, according to one employee, “the original motivation” for starting the company “disappeared.” The company was freely padding receipts and spending money to entertain contractors who controlled work orders so that they could get even more lucrative jobs. The president started giving away new cars to valued employees. After six years, one of the contractors discovered that the Iwaki subcontractor had bribed several of its employees and dropped the subcontractor. Subsequently, the subcontractor started laying off people as profits decreased sharply, and they weren’t the only ones. Two employees of another large general contractor were arrested for fraud for having reported fake costs and pocketing the difference. As one subcontractor explained, it was easy to do. The manager of a particular job asks the subcontractor to forge receipts saying that twice as many people worked on the job or asks a company that supplies lodging for workers to inflate the room charge on the receipts. At least 15 employees of one general contractor were accused of fraud or failure to report income. The total amount of money swindled in these cases was about ¥4 billion.

One contractor told NHK that he knew the environment ministry was understaffed so he didn’t worry about getting audited. The ministry asked for more personnel and the government always refused, saying the cleanup was only a short-term project. As initially planned, it would be finished in three years and cost a little over ¥1 trillion, but after 10 years it’s still not finished and actual costs have soared past ¥3 trillion, not counting the money spent for processing waste and constructing storage facilities. The ministry planned to build only two incinerators for waste disposal, but the local governments said they would only allow waste collected within their borders to be burned, so the ministry ended up building 16 incinerators in Fukushima Prefecture alone. And while they were built to last 20 years, half of them have since been demolished in order to alleviate local anxieties, so in many areas the work was not completed, though the cost of waste incineration ended up being more 5 times the original estimate.

Public funds paid for all of this, but direct tax money was used mainly for mid-term storage of irradiated materials. Everything else related to the cleanup is supposed to be paid for by capital gains made from the government selling Tokyo Electric Power Co. (Tepco) stock. NHK says that the government bought ¥1 trillion worth of Tepco stock at ¥300 per share and estimates that in order to pay off the cleanup costs they would need to sell that stock at ¥1,500 per share. Unfortunately, the stock hasn’t gone up in price since the government bought it. As of February 20, it was about one-fourth what it needed to be, so they have simply put off sale of the shares. One expert NHK talked to, a scholar who has done extensive research into nuclear accidents, said that if the stock doesn’t go up in price, then the government will end up using tax money anyway to pay for the cleanup; either that, or Tepco is going to have to cover more of the cost, which means utility bills will go up again. So, the public—more specifically, future generations—pays for it either way.

This pay structure was built into the law quite recently. Originally, Tepco was legally responsible for cleaning up any situations caused by an accident at their facilities, and thus were expected to pay for the Fukushima disaster, but since the job was so huge the government borrowed money and paid for the operations on behalf of Tepco. In turn, all of Japan’s electric power companies were supposed to reimburse the government. But in March 2013, Tepco talked the government into changing the pay structure, convincing it to shoulder more of the burden by saying that making utilities pay for everything is unfair to their shareholders, since nuclear power is a “national policy.” A letter that NHK uncovered from Tepco to the trade ministry said that Tepco would not be able to “revive” itself if the government didn’t take more responsibility for the cleanup. Nine months later, the Cabinet decided on the capital gains strategy. According to various officials interviewed by NHK, the government knew that the capital gains plan wouldn’t be able to cover the costs of the cleanup, even before it ballooned out of proportion, but that they had to come up with something quickly “on paper.” As one trade ministry official said, the plan puts the government in a double bind, since in order for the stock to go up appreciably, it has to guarantee not only Tepco’s survival, but its success as a private corporation in the short run. And that, presumably, means getting nuclear power plants back online as soon as possible, a task that has run up against a wall of public opposition in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.

In the summer of 2019, at a meeting to dissolve the Utsushi-chiku-based project team, the deputy team leader confessed that he had received millions in yen in extra payments. As it turned out, a total of ¥26 million had been paid to three officials of the team unbeknownst to the team members, and when they found out they were angry. The officials defended the payments, saying that it was “compensation for calculating accounts and working on tax documents,” and that it was perfectly legal. One returned a substantial portion of the money he had received, but the residents were unmoved. The three officials were eventually “expelled” from the team and are now pariahs in the town. Since all the money for the cleanup had to come through the city, the Asahi Shimbun reporter asked a city official about the matter. He said it was an “internal problem” for the team. The city had nothing to do with it.

However, when Asahi talked to rank-and-file members of the team, they discovered that many already knew, or at least suspected, that it was easy to make a lot of money. Since work orders were paid on unit bases — a certain amount per cubic meter of soil collected or per structure cleaned — and no one was checking, it was easy to inflate unit costs. One worker explained how expensive the black bags were for storing contaminated soil and vegetation. The retail price was ¥10,600 per bag, so they bought the bags wholesale for ¥4,200 each and kept the difference. Using such a system, they could make hundreds of thousands of yen extra just on bags for one cleanup job.

An elderly farmer from the area told Asahi that before the cleanup, some residents received large compensation payouts from the government because of their relative proximity to the accident while others received much less, even if they were neighbors, thus giving rise to resentments. Once the cleanup started, however, everybody had the same chance to make money and nobody complained. The work, in fact, made it possible for them to endure and eventually return to farming. But what does that mean when, as a result, their sense of community had been destroyed?

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This is an expanded version of an article that appeared in The Japan Times.

Philip Brasor is a Japan Times columnist. He blogs at PhilipBrasor.com.

Masako Tsubuku is a freelance translator and editor.

Featured image is from The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus

The Future of Australian Universities: Bogans of the Pacific

April 5th, 2021 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

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When Nobel Laureates open their mouths in despair and anger, their observations tend to be worth noting.  Immunologist Professor Peter Doherty was willingly doing so last week, and found himself indignant at the merciless cuts to courses and subjects in Australian universities.  He was particularly worried about what was happening at the University of Melbourne, which is removing various subjects in the sciences as part of its “pandemic reset programme”.

His sombre words were recorded in The Age:  “If we are serious about tackling climate change with technology, if we are serious about preventing more pandemics, then research and the study of science of technology need to be right up there as a national priority and properly funded.”  Australia risked “becoming the bogans of the Pacific.”

A touch harsh, perhaps, given that “bogan” is a word defined in the Australian National Dictionary as “an uncultured and unsophisticated person”, “boorish” and “uncouth”.  But both meaning and consequence are clear enough.  Australian teaching and research institutions are being ravaged by the razor ready commissars of administration who cite one alibi for their hazardous conduct: the pandemic.  Little time is spent on focusing on why the Australian university sector, bloated as it is, began to cannibalise funding and focus on single markets, such as that of China, sacrificing, along the way, standards. 

The approach by the University of Melbourne is a template of savagery.  In September last year, some 200 professors who sit on the academic board issued a warning at the imminent loss of 450 jobs.  The letter to Vice-Chancellor Duncan Maskell warned that the pandemic restructure plan was destined to “damage our capacity to deliver on our public purposes in the short and long term”.  The University risked engendering distrust and damaging morale, harming “our reputation as a preeminent university, both nationally and globally.”

A university spokesman at the time brought out the usual, meaningless formulae one has come to expect from the chancellery.  First, embroider the message with caution; second, celebrate the institution you promise to ransack; third, claim that the ransacking will actually do it good in the future.  The institution was taking a “considered and rational approach to critical decisions that must be made during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure it continues to be Australia’s leading university that is focused on outstanding teaching and research, not just for today but well into the future”.

Just to show how rational and considered these bureaucratic wonks can be, cuts have been made to such important parts of the university as the Veterinary School’s teaching hospital at Werribee.  In an effort both futile but necessary, staff and supporters of the hospital tried to put their case to John Fazakerley, Dean of Veterinary and Agricultural Science.  “The university’s Pandemic Reset Programme proposals do not recognise the correlation between skilled professional staff and teaching in a hospital that provides a high standard of care.”  Did they ever?

Other sectors in the university are also being given more than a haircut.  In November, 209 voluntary redundancies, a cheery form of remunerated execution, were announced, all paving the way for the euphemistically termed “professional services redesign” for staff working in finance, data and reporting, occupational health and safety, facilities management, research outputs and post-award finance support.  (That’s bureaucracy for you.) 

What is particularly stinging to Doherty, however, is the move to torch specific subjects and make various positions redundant.  Staff at Melbourne University have been told that subjects with low enrolment will be scrapped.  These include physical cosmology, quantum field theory and advanced environmental computation.  In all, 11 units in chemistry, physics, biology and earth science risk being discontinued or suspended.  Senior teaching positions in the fields of genetics, chemistry and biosciences will be made redundant.  Office staff and lab technicians also find themselves in this mess.

The assault on science teaching and research is not merely the work of the surfeit barbarians in the chancellery.  Australian higher education is imperilled, not merely by a university management class keen to squeeze students and productive staff into oblivion but a Federal Parliament that sees little value in them.  A country facing the sharper side of climate change, brutal weather, environmental destruction and energy crises would be expected to be pouring money into degrees directed towards their study.  But scientific illiteracy, along with other forms, is as contagious as the novel coronavirus.

In October 2020, changes made to higher education with the blessing of the Centre Alliance and One Nation parties in the Australian Senate saw an effective reduction of 29% to the subject of environmental science.  Dianne Gleeson, president of the Australian Council of Environmental Deans and Directors, called this budgetary slicing “one of the largest funding cuts to any university course”.  It would do away with the technologically heavy side of the course: the use of satellites, drones, analytical equipment from DNA sequencing.

The move did not seem to discourage Catriona Jackson, the perennially ignorant chief executive of Universities Australia.  Australian universities, she promised, “remain committed to providing world-class degrees in all aspects of environmental studies, recognising the growing importance of this discipline”.

The disturbing irony in this tragedy (or monstrous cock-up) is that slashing cuts were always going to happen.  The central problem is that the wrong things, not to mention positions, are being slashed.  A further commodification of the tertiary sector, with degree programs reduced to market based fictions with stated “objectives”, is promised.  When the Australian government and universities speak about “job ready” packages, they are bound to be rendering students both unready and distinctly boganised.

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Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research. Email: [email protected]

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Violent demonstrations in Bangladesh, reportedly by activists from the Hefazat-e-Islam group, resulted in 12 people being killed during the Indian Prime Minister’s two-day visit on March 26. Narendra Modi’s visit was to celebrate Bangladesh’s 50-year anniversary since its independence from Pakistan. The anti-Modi riots highlighted an increasing problem in Bangladesh – an Islamist resurgence that has bad portends for South and Southeast Asia.

Hefazat, an influential group with a huge following despite only being formed in 2010, has tactically declared it is not a political party. However, its influence has been all-pervading and challenges the traditional moderate nature of Islam in Bangladesh that is heavily influenced by Bengali culture and language. The group came to prominence as it denigrates secularism and was courted by different political parties, including the ruling Awami League, because the parliamentary system requires mainstream parties to be in coalition with Islamist groups. Hefazat was seen as an antidote to the Jamaat-e-Islami, the principal Islamist political party in the country (that was banned in 2013). The group has thus been able to penetrate different strata of Bangladeshi society.

Bangladesh has seen an increase in terrorist activity in recent years, including attacks on foreigners, activists and religious minorities. The conventional thinking is that most radicals are poor, but this theory no longer holds as many of the perpetrators of these attacks include people from privileged backgrounds. News reports indicate that the Islamists believe that the secularists in Bangladesh are attacking Islam. Secularists, in their view, includes anyone who opposes extremist Islam and pursues cultural mores.

Bangladesh was founded in 1971 with secularism as an important tenet of the country’s foundation values. Secularism in Bangladesh today is being continually challenged by radical Islamists. The rise of radical Islam in Bangladesh began with the 1975 assassination of its founding leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. With a military government ruling over Bangladesh, either directly or as proxy for the next 15 years, conservative Islamic views became more central in the country. This was so much so that in 1979, secularism was removed from the Bangladeshi constitution. In 1988, Islam was made the official state religion.

The number of state-sanctioned Islamic schools (madrasas) increased exponentially, from 1,830 in 1975 to 5,793 in 1990.  But the biggest radical change in the country came in the 1980’s when U.S.-backed Bangladeshi mujahideens returned from their anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan. These veterans sought to transplant Saudi-sponsored Taliban-styled Islam to Bangladesh.

Although Sheikh Hasina won the 2008 elections and restored secularism to the Bangladeshi Constitution, the country remains an Islamic Republic. The Islamists do not win votes in elections but instead exert considerable societal and cultural power through madrassas, banks and other institutions.

In the last decade, Bangladesh’s Islamists have resorted to street power to mobilize against secularism. In February 2013, when top Islamist leaders were convicted of war crimes committed during the 1971 Bangladeshi Liberation Struggle, one of main figures was given what the moderates considered a light sentence. A campaign began to demand his execution, but the Islamists countered this with a well-coordinated counter-protest led by Hefazat. As many as 500,000 people shut down major roads to the capital and interpreted the protesters demands as defaming their religion and Muhammad, the founder of Islam. The fact that Pakistani-backed Islamist militias killed hundreds of thousands of people during the Liberation Struggle was ignored by Hefazat.

In a 13-point list, Hefazat demanded the death penalty for blasphemy and an end to Bangladesh’s education policy that they say prioritizes “secular” subjects like science and math over religious studies. To appease Islamist interests, the government agreed to meet some of their demands, including an expansion on the government’s ability to crack down on those who “hurt religious beliefs” and for “acts of defamation.”

Under this revised law, Bangladesh has arrested at least eight bloggers since 2013 for writing articles critical of the Saudi government and posting derogatory remarks about the founder of Islam. Police have used the defamation clause of the Information and Communication Technology Act and its replacement, the Digital Security Act of 2018, to silence criticism against the government. Between 2013 and 2018, over 1,200 people were charged under this law.

Bangladeshi preachers also aspire to shape society according to their interpretations of what constitutes “pure” Islam. Popular Islamic televangelists reach millions of people across the Muslim world, spreading the notion that Islam in the Indian subcontinent must be “purified” of non-Arab elements, ie. of all Indo influences. An example of Indo influence on Islam in the region is the Qawwali Sufi devotional singing which originated on the Indian subcontinent. Today, Qawwali singers are being targeted and/or killed in Pakistan and Bangladesh by Islamic fundamentalists.

Just as Pakistan became a hub for terrorists on India’s western border, Bangladesh’s descent into radical Islam could turn it into another jihadist hub, but on India’s eastern border. By Pakistan becoming a hub for jihadists, it was able to spread terror into Afghanistan, Kashmir and other parts of India, as well as the wider region. In this way, Bangladesh, as a gateway into Southeast Asia, could galvanize and encourage already existing jihadists in eastern India, Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia if it continues appeasing radical Islamists and refuse to return to the principles of their founding fathers 50 years earlier.

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Paul Antonopoulos is an independent geopolitical analyst.

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“It started when some people from the government came around the community telling us that we were illegally occupying the land,” Chhae Kimsrour said in June 2020. “I’ve lived here since 1995, but six months later they came back and started filling in my lake. They said it was their land now – many families in the area have been affected.”

At the time, Kimsrour was raising fish and crocodiles in Beoung Samrong, a small community on the northwestern outskirts of Phnom Penh. Living with three generations under one roof, he said his aquaculture enterprises were sustaining his family – until the government filled in two of his three lakes, claiming that the land was in fact state-public land that the authorities were requisitioning, reportedly to build a park.

“They built a road right through my property, everything I own, I earned through sweat and blood – what other country would do this to its people?” said a visibly distraught Kimsrour.

In March 2021 Kimsrour confirmed that, despite going through the bureaucratic administrative processes set out by the Municipal Department of Land Management, he has now lost over a hectare of his land and was unable to afford a lawyer.

“The government has been promising compensation since last year [2020] but I’ve had nothing. When is it coming? That land was mine for decades” he said.

Meanwhile, in July 2020 Touch Soeun awoke each morning in fear that the bulldozers would return. The month prior, a fleet of bulldozers flanked by local authorities and police officers arrived to inform him that the Boeung Chhouk A village – a small hamlet in northern Phnom Penh – was illegally occupying land that was owned by an unnamed property developer.

Touch Soeun gazes at his land, which has been cleared without his consent. Image by Gerald Flynn.

Touch Soeun gazes at his land, which was cleared without his consent in June 2020. Image by Gerald Flynn.

By that time, six houses had been torn down and one homeowner had had a heart attack as the bulldozers tore through his home, according to Soeun.

“I’ve still not heard back from the complaint I submitted to City Hall last month [June 2020], but I don’t know what will happen if they [the bulldozers] return,” he said in July. “The community is united. We’re prepared to stop the authorities from taking our homes.”

But now Soeun said that the remaining 22 families of Boeung Chhouk A live in limbo. As of March 2021, his community’s case has not moved forwards and the authorities maintain they are illegally occupying the land, but would be compensated if they left.

“We’re living as normal now; it’s been nine months since they first tore down houses. We don’t know what is happening, but we don’t want to leave,” he said in March 2021.

The potential for international justice

Kimsrour and Soeun’s stories are all too common in Cambodia, where the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) in 2014 estimated that at least 770,000 people had been affected by land grabs that cover some 4 million hectares of land – 145,000 of them in Phnom Penh alone.

The well-documented politicization of Cambodia’s judiciary has rendered justice elusive and land disputes – as frequent as they are – rarely even make it to court. But FIDH aims to bring a case against land grabbing to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

FIDH, along with Global Witness and Climate Counsel, submitted an open letter dated March 16 to Fatou Bensouda, the current prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC), urging her to open a preliminary examination into land-grabbing in Cambodia.

“The Cambodia situation offers a unique opportunity for the ICC to engage with the single greatest threat facing humankind – the climate and environmental emergency,” the authors write in their letter. “Land grabbing is not only about the violent forced evictions of residents, or the beatings, murders, or unlawful imprisonment of land activists.”

While FIDH, Global Witness and Climate Counsel began the process in October 2014, when the first communication was sent to the Office of the Prosecutor at the ICC – which was followed up by a second in July 2015 – progress has remained slow. But FIDH’s latest letter suggested that a decision will be made by the end of Bensouda’s term as prosecutor on June 15, 2021.

“Obviously we can’t make a decision for the prosecutor,” said Andrea Giorgetta, FIDH’s Asia Desk director.

“This case has been brought to her attention for many years, so the decision is overdue – we’re hopeful that the decision will be made one way or another,” he said in a telephone interview.

The Office of the Prosecutor at the ICC did not respond to requests for comment on the matter, but a December 2020 report on Preliminary Examination Activities stated that Bensouda’s office will send responses to communications that warrant further analysis this year, including the case of land grabbing in Cambodia.

Indeed, on Feb. 17, Bensouda delivered a keynote speech at the Institute of International & European Affairs where she again confirmed that a decision would be made on Cambodia before her term ends on June 15, 2021.

“We also do have an issue that we’re dealing with currently in respect to Cambodia – the land grabbing issue – we are dealing with that and we’ll provide responses to that,” she said in her speech.

Cautious optimism among those seeking justice for land grabs in Cambodia was somewhat renewed following the publication of a policy paper by the ICC on Sept. 15, 2016 that effectively broadened its processes for selecting and prioritizing cases.

“[T]he Office will give particular consideration to prosecuting Rome Statute crimes that are committed by means of, or that result in, inter alia [among other things], the destruction of the environment, the illegal exploitation of natural resources or the illegal dispossession of land,” the policy paper states.

“That’s why we’re hopeful,” Giorgetta said. “[B]ecause in fact it falls within what the policy paper describes as one of the types of situations that they’d want to look into.”

This being said, Giorgetta was quick to point out that the ICC has not expanded its mandate and the Office of the Prosecutor is still only able to investigate crimes that full under the Rome Statute. Rather, the court could prioritize cases where currently listed crimes have contributed to environmental degradation, illegal exploitation of natural resources or the illegal acquisition of land.

There had been hope, both among the ICC and the NGOs involved, that the submission of communications to the Office of the Prosecutor alone would have had some impact and altered the behavior of those involved in land grabs across Cambodia; but as Giorgetta observed, this hasn’t been the case.

“The opposite has happened,” he said. “The government has dismissed this communication and seems to be ignoring it, which reinforces the message that there is no political will, particularly in the lack of independence of the judiciary to address the issue.”

Touch Soeun gazes at his land, which has been cleared without his consent in June 2020. Image by Gerald Flynn.

Touch Soeun’s home, where trees once stood. Image by Gerald Flynn.

When asked for comment on the potential for land grabbing to be examined by the ICC, spokesperson for the Ministry of Environment Neth Pheaktra said he wasn’t the right person to speak to. Seng Lot, spokesperson for the Ministry of Land Management could not be reached for comment and holds a reputation – even among government-owned media in Cambodia – for never speaking publicly.

Likewise government spokesperson Phay Siphan declined to comment on how the government was feeling about the ICC’s progress, as did Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) spokesperson Sok Eysan, Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Koy Kuong and Council of Ministers spokesperson Ek Tha.

As such, it’s impossible to know whether anyone within Prime Minister Hun Sen’s administration is especially concerned about being targeted for involvement in land grabs, but as Giorgetta noted, the government has previously buckled slightly at the prospect of international sanctions.

“Here we’re not talking about sanctions, we’re talking about criminal accountability, but when the international community has acted to target individuals, that’s when the government has reacted,” he said, adding that he believes some officials and tycoons are likely concealing their concerns.

Historic problems, inadequate solutions

Land ownership has long been a sensitive social issue in Cambodia after the genocidal Khmer Rouge regime abolished land titles – a move that would lead to surviving land titles being voided in the 1980s, but the value of land concessions became apparent during the bitter conflict that consumed Cambodia for much of the 1990s.

Between 1991 and 1997, the government allocated some 7 million hectares of land as forest concessions as various political factions sought to fund their bids for supremacy in the wake of the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia mission.

While people like Kimsrour and Soeun settled on Phnom Penh’s outskirts in 1995, the Land Management Ministry didn’t even exist until 1999 and the 1992 version of Cambodia’s Land Law suffered from weak-to-no enforcement until its 2001 amendment.

But despite requesting the support of international donors to issue land titles in 1995, the World Bank in 2001 estimated that 80% of Cambodia’s land area was deemed property of the state and as few as 600,000 of the 4 million applications for land titles had been processed.

By 2010, the United Nations Capital Development Fund found that 30% of Cambodia’s land was owned by just 1% of the population, largely due to the 2001 amendments to the Land Law that made possible the conversion of land from state-public to state-private, which allows land to be sold if certain criteria were met.

“Right now, with widespread issues of forced evictions and land grabbing – especially following international attention – the government has been forced to shift the way it deals with land concessions,” said Eang Vuthy, director of local land rights NGO Equitable Cambodia.

“More state-public land is being privatized, we’re seeing the filling in of rivers, lakes and wetlands, it’s heartbreaking to see,” he said, adding that this trend of privatization isn’t just happening in cities, but across the country, especially in coastal regions.

Some 400 Cambodians travelled from three provinces to Phnom Penh on Sept. 22, 2020 to protest outside the Ministry of Land Management over unresolved land disputes – many of which had arisen from the government allegedly reclaiming people’s land.

A protest against land-grabbing held in front of the Land Management Ministry in September, 2020. Image by Gerald Flynn.

A protest against land-grabbing held in front of the Land Management Ministry in September, 2020. Image by Gerald Flynn.

Vuthy said land grabs are justified by the government as land concessions, housing developments or infrastructure projects, but noted that residents often have no idea until construction – or demolition – begins.

He said that justice in these cases is both rare and slow. Land disputes that arose in 2010 over sugar plantations in Oddar Meanchey, Koh Kong, Kampong Speu and Preah Vihear provinces remain unsolved.

Of the 700 families affected in Oddar Meanchey province, Vuthy said that fewer than half had received a 2-hectare plot of land in compensation, while more than 1,000 families were given 1.5-hectare plots in Koh Kong province. In both cases the relocation and compensation packages were inadequate for the needs of the community, he added.

Vuthy said that even those solutions haven’t been offered to the 2,130 families in Kampong Speu and Preah Vihear who lost their land to sugar companies owned by or connected to Ly Yong Phat – a wealthy and powerful CPP senator.

Similarly, in Ratanakiri province, Vietnamese rubber giant HAGL has been accused of illegally clearing the sacred land of some 2,000 indigenous families.

Indigenous communities are more adversely affected by land grabs, Vuthy said, because the land is often central to their animist beliefs and their livelihoods, and they are even less likely to be afforded justice than ethnically Khmer victims.

“The problem is that these bigger cases drag on due to the inadequacy of the solutions offered,” Vuthy said. “People in Koh Kong province managed to get some of their land back after being evicted years earlier, but simply getting their land back doesn’t restore their livelihoods – they’re often facing high indebtedness, they cannot restore their businesses and often end up selling the land back to whoever took it from them.”

Land grabbers accused of ecocide

One element that remains absent from communications sent to the ICC regarding land grabbing in Cambodia is the intrinsic relationship between the illegal acquisition of land and environmental degradation.

This is an issue that the ICC has also pledged to address, according to the 2016 policy paper and as recently as December 2020, when international lawyer Philippe Sands and Florence Mumba – a judge at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia – announced they were drafting a definition of ecocide to be included on the list of international crimes that includes such atrocities as genocide and crimes against humanity. Their definition is expected early this year and could mean perpetrators of environmental destruction could be brought to international justice.

“The very process of industrial development creates conditions for cultural genocide and ecocide,” said Courtney Work, an assistant professor at the National Chengchi University’s Department of Ethnology. “Perpetrators don’t explicitly intend to kill people or the environment – at least proving they do is difficult – but they do intend to make a profit.”

Recent deforestation inside Phnom Samkos Wildlife Sanctuary.

Recent deforestation inside Phnom Samkos Wildlife Sanctuary.

Speaking at a webinar hosted by the Center for Khmer Studies on March 12, Work said that the flurry of land concessions that the Cambodian government handed out in the 2000s resulted in widespread environmental destruction. She referenced a Cambodian saying: while Khmer Rouge leader Pol Pot killed the people, current developments – much of which Work linked to land concessions – are killing everything else.

“There’s a possibility that new rumblings at the ICC could make some difference,” she said. “But we need a change of perspective, not a new law.”

One area of interest for Work is Prey Lang Wildlife Sanctuary, where rampant logging has been tied to economic land concessions awarded to companies that enjoy close relationships with each other and the government.

Chu-Chang Lu, chairman of Think Biotech and on the board at Angkor Plywood – two companies operating within the protected area of Prey Lang – denied his company was involved in illegal logging and was unconcerned by the prospect of legal action, in Cambodia or internationally.

“Why stop me? I’m not the one burning everything, causing air pollution,” Lu said. “The forest should be protected by the government – we’re businessmen, we’re not here to stop illegal logging.”

Satellite imagery from Planet Labs and Sentinel 2B shows recent large-scale deforestation of primary forest right outside Prey Land Wildlife Sanctuary.

Satellite imagery from Planet Labs and Sentinel 2B shows recent large-scale deforestation of primary forest inside Think Biotech’s timber concession, which abuts Prey Lang Wildlife Sanctuary.

Work’s research in Cambodia began in 2009 and has covered the social and ecological consequences of land concessions in their many forms across Cambodia, including Pursat, Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Speu and Stung Treng provinces, where the dispossession of land and destruction of the environment remained pegged to the economic land concessions granted in each province.

“These were more rapacious than the previous forest concessions [of the 1990s],” she said, adding that, at their height, economic land concessions took up more than 2 million hectares of land in Cambodia until they stopped being awarded in 2012.

Has international development failed Cambodia?

Economic land concessions gave way to social land concessions, an initiative introduced by the World Bank that was designed to ensure land tenure for Cambodia’s growing landless population. But rights activists warn that this, like almost all well-intentioned programs pertaining to land titling, has been bastardized.

Reports from local land rights advocates suggest that social land concessions are not only being used instead of proper compensation mechanisms for communities who’ve been evicted in the wake of land grabs, but have even been abused to provide land to military officials, along with the friends and family of local authorities.

As recently as June last year, the World Bank announced another $93 million would go to fund the third phase of its land tenure project in Cambodia, despite mounting allegations of abuse within the system that has led critics to accuse the World Bank of being complicit in land grabbing and the environmental damage it has caused.

“The extent to which the World Bank is not benevolent is astounding,” Work wrote in an email. “And the reason the Cambodian government continues to get funding from them, despite being ‘extreme extractors,’ is a sign of the priorities of the bank.”

Representatives of the World Bank in Cambodia said that they were “not aware of serious issues with the land allocated through the LASED projects” adding that the success of LASED I and LASED II had prompted increased funding for the third phase.

“As illustrated by its long-term engagement with the government SLC program, the World Bank has been keen to support securing access to land for poor households,” the World Bank representative wrote in an email, adding that land secured was proving a valuable safety net during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The first two phases of LASED have so far cost $39.86 million and have been running since 2008 – LASED III is set to run from 2021 to 2026 and will bring the total cost to $146.8 million – but so far just 17,000 hectares have been allocated to 5,091 previously landless families. Of them, only 3,362 land titles have been issued, meaning the World Bank has spent nearly $12,000 for each land title acquired.

On March 12 the World Bank published findings from the Ecosystem Accounting framework, which aims to attach a dollar value to ecosystems in a bid to help preserve them.

The Cambodian government reportedly requested the World Bank provide economic data to support a decision to preserve 65% of Cambodia’s forests. The analysis found that economic gains from preserving forests were five times higher than cutting them down for charcoal production or agriculture and that other sectors linked to forest ecosystems would benefit by as much as 20 times more than the cost of maintaining the forests.

Deforestation appears to spill out of the Pheapimex Group concession near Phnom Samkos Wildlife Sanctuary.

Deforestation appears to spill out of the Pheapimex Group concession near Phnom Samkos Wildlife Sanctuary.

Satellite imagery shows recent burned areas in another area near Pheapimex's concession. According to data from U.S. space agency NASA, fire activity began in the concession.

Satellite imagery shows recently burned areas of primary forest in another area outside the Pheapimex concession. According to data from U.S. space agency NASA, fire activity began in the concession.

But critics remain unconvinced by the World Bank’s motives and are skeptical of even the ICC’s ability to stimulate change in Cambodia’s relationship with conservation.

“Honestly, the fact that they [the World Bank] are talking about recognizing ecological value and not doing what is necessary to actually value ecological systems is frightening,” said Work. “We are seeing very little change to practices on the ground, even though there’s a lot of talk about change and value…  and the value is only economic. There seems to be no intrinsic value for our collective life support system.”

She added that so far the government hasn’t changed their response to any form of provocation – whether from development partners, NGOs, activists or the potential ICC case – but said that maybe the ICC could have some government officials “sweating just a little.”

“I am not convinced that the whole global development project has much to show for itself,” she said. “[B]ut it is all so starkly visible in Cambodia, which stands as a shining example of everything that’s wrong with our global economic system.”

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After Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi met with his Indonesian counterpart Prabowo Subianto earlier this week, he stated that their two countries agreed to expand defense cooperation and conduct joint military exercises in the South China Sea. The Indonesian Minister of Defense and Minister of Foreign Affairs visited Tokyo for bilateral talks with their Japanese counterparts. The meeting was part of Indonesia’s efforts to delicately balance its relations with all Indo-Pacific players, including China, the U.S. and Japan, in light of regional issues such as the demarcation of the South China Sea and the political crisis in Myanmar.

In October last year, Japan and Indonesia – both archipelago countries – held a naval exercise in Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone off Natuna to the west of Borneo island. Beijing and Jakarta are at odds over Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone demarcation line in the South China Sea, so observers believe that holding a joint military exercise there could be a provocation against China. Japan emphasizes that it is developing military relations with its partners in Southeast Asia in response to China’s increasingly assertive policy in the South China Sea.

Japan, the U.S, Australia and India are part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), one of the main regional mechanisms to halt Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. It is likely that Japan is attempting to draw Indonesia into QUAD so it can be part of an alliance aimed against China.

However, Indonesia is unlikely to participate in QUAD in the near future. Although Indonesia has major disagreement with China over maritime delimitations in the South China Sea, it is not to the extent that decisionmakers in Jakarta would jeopardize trade relations. If Indonesia were to join QUAD against China, it will undoubtedly lead to a negative backlash by Beijing and the disadvantages it will cause will certainly outweigh any advantage that is perceived.

Even Vietnam, which has centuries long animosity with China and more tense relations over the South China Sea, shows no intentions of joining QUAD. Besides the lack of interest from Vietnam, and likely from Indonesia too, QUAD members themselves, at this point in time, have not named any specific candidates to join their anti-China coalition.

Jakarta’s current policy is balancing its relations with Washington, New Delhi, Canberra, Tokyo and Beijing. Although its economy is reliant on Beijing, Indonesia has identified Japan as a country to boost military ties with since they too are a naval country that has maritime issues with China.

This has not stopped Indonesia from making moves that the U.S. would view as hostile. China as the world’s largest exporter, and Indonesia as Southeast Asia’s largest economy, agreed last September to promote the use of the Chinese Yuan and Indonesian Rupiah in trade and investment transactions between the two countries instead of the U.S. dollar. Currently, around 10% of Indonesia’s global trade uses Yuan and in 2018, the value of the Yuan reached $29 billion, or about 63% of the entire Indonesian market.

The Japan-Indonesia 2 + 2 meeting was not reduced to boosting military ties though. The ministerial meeting in Tokyo also reflected the different Japanese and Indonesian approaches to the situation in Myanmar. Since the Myanmar military came to power through a coup on February 1, the Foreign Ministers of Japan and Indonesia, Toshimitsu Motegi and Retno Marsudi, held two phone conversations about the issue.

After the meeting in Tokyo, the parties agreed to work closely to improve Myanmar’s situation. The Japanese Foreign Minister welcomed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) efforts in responding to the Myanmar crisis. According to Western news agencies, Motegi harshly criticized Myanmar’s increased military repression of civilian protests. Meanwhile, there was no information about the response of the Indonesian Foreign Minister to these Japanese assessments, nor a statement against the Myanmar military government.

Indonesia, along with Singapore and Malaysia, led an ASEAN initiative to end the violence by pushing for a special summit that would allow dialogue with the Myanmar military. This is in stark contrast to Japan, the largest provider of economic assistance to Myanmar ($1.7 billion in 2019), who on Tuesday suspended new aid to the country and called for the release of President Win Myint and other detained members of the National League for Democracy, which decisively won last November’s general election.

Although Japan and Indonesia have striking differences on how to handle the situation in Myanmar, it is unlikely that it will affect their bilateral relations as they prioritise and focus on naval cooperation and coordination. In this way, Indonesia is delicately balancing its relations with all major countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Paul Antonopoulos is an independent geopolitical analyst.

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On Malaysia and the DPRK Breaking of Diplomatic Relations

March 30th, 2021 by Dr. Konstantin Asmolov

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On March 19, 2021, the DPRK announced a complete break in diplomatic relations with Malaysia, accusing Kuala Lumpur of illegally extraditing a North Korean citizen to US authorities. The DPRK Foreign Ministry said in a statement published by the KCNA news agency that “Malaysian authorities committed an unpardonable crime by forcibly transferring an innocent DPRK citizen to the United States”.

The culprit in the scandal was a 56-year-old North Korean businessman named Moon Chul Myung, who lived in Malaysia and bought expensive alcohol and watches and sent them to North Korea through dummy companies. These goods fall under the category of luxury goods banned for shipments to North Korea.

Moon has lived in Malaysia for ten years and was arrested in May 2019 after a federal judge in Washington issued an arrest warrant for Moon on May 2, 2019 on money laundering and conspiracy charges.

During the trial, Moon denied all charges, and his defense argued that he would not get a fair trial in the US and that his extradition was politically motivated and intended to increase pressure on North Korea because of the country’s missile program.

In the end, Moon’s appeal was rejected and he became the first DPRK citizen extradited to the United States on money laundering charges.

On March 22, Moon Chul Myung was taken to federal court in the District of Columbia. The charges were brought on a total of six counts. According to the US Department of Justice press office, the court documents contain evidence that between April 2013 and November 2018, Moon Chul Myung conspired with several other individuals to gain access to the US financial system. The money laundering activity is believed to have involved transactions in amounts exceeding $1.5 million.

North Korea believes that Malaysia has failed to provide a single shred of evidence to accuse Moon of engaging in “legitimate foreign trade activities,” and warned that Malaysian authorities would be fully responsible for any consequences that arise between the two countries. “This world-shocking incident is the clear product of a conspiracy against the DPRK, created by the abhorrent hostile policy of the United States to isolate and strangle our country, as well as pro-American subordination on the part of the Malaysian authorities.”

The KCNA warned that the US would “pay their due price” as the “behind-the-scenes manipulator and main perpetrator of the incident“, and stated that shortly after the incident, the US Ambassador to Malaysia invited Malaysian law enforcement officials to a banquet where they were given a substantial tip.  Also, coincidentally or not, it was revealed on March 22 that SKC Inc., the chemical division of South Korean conglomerate SK Group, intends to spend 700 billion won to build its first overseas plant in Malaysia to produce copper foil, one of the key materials for electric car batteries.

On March 21, 33 North Korean citizens, including embassy officials and their families left Malaysia on a flight to Shanghai. The Malaysian authorities declared the North Korean diplomats personae non grata and demanded that they leave the country within 48 hours.

The night before, the DPRK flag was removed from the embassy, after which the embassy’s interim chargé d’affaires Kim Yu-sung issued a statement saying that the action was “the result of a US-led plot against North Korea, which has undermined the basis of bilateral relations between the DPRK and Malaysia.”

To some, this response seemed unusually harsh. But we should recall that after the assassination of Kim Jong Nam, the two countries were already on the verge of severing diplomatic relations. An important element of the investigation at the time was the case of another North Korean businessman who, as it turned out later, was also involved in complicated schemes to deliver to North Korea various equipment, and possibly even banned goods. A chemical engineer named Lee was portrayed by the South Korean media and intelligence as the main organizer of the murder, but no incriminating evidence has been discovered. So Lee was simply deported, and when he returned home, he said that South Koreans were present at his interrogations, who actively pressured him to escape to the ROK.

Let’s not forget the story of the “12 escaped waitresses”. The high-profile escape ended up being a story about a corrupt manager who tricked the women into leaving for the South, but what is important is that the group left China again for Malaysia, after which they were escorted by special forces to the Korean embassy and then back to their “home country”.

At the same time, up to a certain time, North Korean business was doing quite well in Malaysia. There have been cases when Malaysian trading companies turned out to be in fact North Korean, and there were even cases of military equipment being sold through such structures.

This, however, is but a preamble to the real story. In essence, it was the first time that a citizen of the DPRK found himself in the hands of American justice, and the latter will likely not be particularly shy about getting information out of him. This, in turn, could have several unpleasant consequences for the DPRK, with those types of consequences looking much the same.

The first option is that such a person really has something to tell and these secrets will be forced out of him. It is not clear what this information is, but in any case it will be a hurtful loss for Pyongyang. The second option is that some amount of information obtained illegally from classified sources can be “legitimized”: say, he might have confirmed such information, or we might have just reached similar conclusions as a result of interrogations. The third scenario is that now it is possible to throw in scary secrets of any degree of unreliability, which could lead to the formation of an entire flock of “Pyongyang ducks”. That said, it would not technically be an anonymous source in North Korea who told his story to an anonymous DailyNK volunteer, but someone with a specific name.

Pyongyang cannot punish Washington for such a move, but the door has been slammed on Malaysia, and another weight has appeared on the scales of further aggravation of the relations between the United States and the DPRK, so we will try to follow the developments closely and get ready for likely sensational confessions.

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Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of the Far East at the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

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Australia’s Plan for Manufacturing Missiles to be Accelerated

March 30th, 2021 by Prof. Michelle Grattan

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The government is speeding up the establishment of its planned $1 billion Sovereign Guided Weapons Enterprise, which aims to boost Australia’s own defence production capabilities as it faces a deteriorating security outlook.

The defence department will now start the process of selecting a strategic industry partner to operate a sovereign guided weapons manufacturing capability to produce missiles and other weapons on the government’s behalf .

The new enterprise will specialise in guided missiles for use across the defence force.

The increasing assertiveness of China and Australia’s deteriorating relations with that country, as well as the lessons of COVID, have strengthened the push for greater sovereign capability.

Scott Morrison, who will announce the acceleration in Adelaide on Wednesday, said in a statement,

“Creating our own sovereign capability on Australian soil is essential to keep Australians safe, while also providing thousands of local jobs in businesses right across the defence supply chain.

“As the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, having the ability for self-reliance, be it vaccine development or the defence of Australia, is vital to meeting our own requirements in a changing global environment.”

Peter Dutton, who was only sworn into the defence portfolio on Tuesday, said the announcement “builds on the agreement the Morrison government achieved at AUSMIN last year to pursue options to encourage bilateral defence trade and to advance initiative that diversify and harness our industry co-operation”.

Dutton said Australia would work closely with the United States “to ensure that we understand how our enterprise can best support both Australia’s needs and the growing needs of our most important military partner”.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a defence think tank, estimates Australian will spend $100 billion in the next 20 years on buying missiles and guided weapons.

ASPI defence expert Michael Shoebridge wrote in June last year:

“The ADF gets its missiles from US, European and Israeli manufacturers, at the end of long global supply chains. And, when the home nations of these manufacturers need missiles urgently themselves, their needs can get in the way of meeting ours […]

“The deteriorating strategic environment in our region, combined with the heightened understanding of how vulnerable extended global supply chains are, means the current situation has become unacceptable.”

Companies that could be a potential partners include Raytheon Australia, Lockheed Martin Australia, Kongsberg, and BAE Systems Australia. The partner will need to be suitable to work with the US and have strong links with Australian supply chain businesses.

The new Minister for Industry, Science and Technology, Christian Porter released a National Manufacturing Defence Roadmap on Tuesday, for a 10 year plan for investment.

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 is a Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra.

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After halting forest-clearing operations in 2020, the Digoel Agri conglomerate has apparently restarted its activities in Indonesia’s Papua province, raising alarms among local Indigenous communities who say they never agreed to its presence on their ancestral lands.

Satellite imagery from the first two months of 2021 shows 64 hectares (158 acres) of deforestation in two Digoel Agri concessions, those held by its subsidiaries PT Boven Digoel Budidaya Sentosa and PT Perkebunan Boven Digoel Sejahtera, according to forest monitoring platform Nusantara Atlas.

Pusaka, an Indonesian nonprofit that analyzed the satellite imagery, says it has heard from local villagers that the conglomerate’s land-clearing contractor started bringing heavy equipment into the area in November 2020.

In 2019, Digoel Agri cleared 164 hectares (405 acres) of forest, before pausing operations in October that year, when it reportedly stopped paying staff salaries.

The concessions form part of the Tanah Merah project, a vast area on the island of New Guinea earmarked to become the world’s largest oil palm plantation. The project lies in the heart of the world’s third-largest rainforest, after the Amazon and Congo.

Development on the project has only just begun, but if it is carried through to completion, it will result in the clearance of 280,000 hectares (692,000 acres) of rainforest, releasing a huge amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

The project has been mired in controversy, such as allegations of falsified permits, conflicts with Indigenous peoples, and the use of shell companies in offshore secrecy jurisdictions to conceal the identifies of the investors behind the project, several of which remain a mystery.

Digoel Agri was founded by the family of the late Ventje Rumangkang, a founder of Indonesia’s Democratic Party who died last year. They have partnered with a New Zealand property developer named Neville Mahon, who in 2018 became the majority shareholder in the Digoel Agri subsidiaries. Neither party replied to a request for comment.

A report from Pusaka includes allegations that Digoel Agri has failed to obtain the free, prior and informed consent of local Indigenous tribes.

“The ancestral forests that have important value for their livelihoods and cultures will be gone” if the project continues, Pusaka director Franky Samperante told Mongabay, adding that the group had been unable to obtain copies of permits held by Digoel Agri.

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The generally perceived attitude regarding inter-state water disputes in India has been that these should be resolved as soon as possible so that the many-sided potential of various river-valley projects can be realized as early as possible by taking up the construction of dams, canals and hydro power plants.

So when the Narmada Tribunal settlement led to resolving water sharing agreement about five decades back, this was widely seen as a great opportunity to go ahead with a number of large dam projects. However when these projects came to ground level implementation it became clear that the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people , the submergence of highly fertile farmland and invaluable forests and habitats as well as other massive ecological disruptions including intrusion of saltwater over wide stretches of coastal area were involved.

So what actually happened over the next five decades was a complete disruption of the entire  environment, livelihoods and in fact the basic geography of the Narmada region the like of which had perhaps not been seen in the past five thousand years. The tunnel vision which celebrates this change is incapable of seeing or understanding  what they  have done to peacefully living farming communities, forest and tribal communities, to various forms of life including animals and fish, to forests and habitats. If they are incapable of seeing and understanding all this, then  of course they  are also incapable of learning any lessons from this and so the possibility of such gigantic mistakes being repeated remains with us.

Recently there was celebration regarding the states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh reaching agreement on sharing of river waters, paving the way for the early implementation of the Ken-Betwa link project, a project that has been widely criticized, among others by several eminent experts, regarding its disruptive impacts including the felling of over two million trees, while its basic rationality in terms of its stated aims has also been  questioned seriously

But then this is only the first of many rivers inter-linking projects, conceived as components of a gigantic river-linking project at national level. Such a scenario of water sharing agreements paving the way  for hurried implementation of many dam projects may be repeated time and again, particularly as powerful construction lobbies are  often exerting pressure for this all the time.

But the real task is to first access very carefully and independently all the possible adverse impacts as well as examine the stated  benefits so that a decision which is truly beneficial for society can be taken. The fact that an inter-state agreement on sharing of waters has been reached cannot itself be taken as a signal for rushing through dam projects which have not been investigated properly regarding all their impacts and regarding which many serious questions have been raised in the past. However past experience tells us that actually agreements on water sharing are often followed by hurried execution of dam and related projects, as though water sharing agreement is by itself a green signal for this. This may prove very costly in terms of very adverse social and environmental costs. Such hurried and indiscriminate tinkering with rivers has always been costly, and it is likely to prove all the more costly in times of climate change which have brought their own uncertainties and difficulties.

The same can  be said also of projects involving sharing of water with neighboring countries. In such cases the need for caution is even more, as here any carelessness or uncalled for hurry can not only cause a lot of harm to environment and people  but also have adverse implications for relationships between two countries.

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Bharat Dogra is a journalist and author. His recent books include Man Over Machine and Protecting Earth for Children.

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There were Cold War preparations underway as early as August 1945 and the two regions selected, Korea and Vietnam, were pre-planned years in advance before the actual wars were to take place, Cynthia Chung writes.

In part one of this series, I discussed how a massive U.S. arms stockpile in Okinawa, Japan that was originally intended to be used for the planned American invasion of Japan was cancelled once the two atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

L. Fletcher Prouty, who served as Chief of Special Operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Kennedy and was a former Col. in the U.S. Air Force, remarks in his book “The CIA, Vietnam and the Plot to Assassinate John F. Kennedy,” that these massive arms shipments were not returned to the United States but rather, half were transported to Korea and the other half to Vietnam.

The implications of this are enormous.

It signifies that there were Cold War preparations already underway as early as August 1945 and likely much earlier, and that the two regions selected, Korea and Vietnam, were pre-planned five years in advance and the other ten years in advance respectively, before the actual wars were to take place.

What this means is that the official narrative for why the Korean War and the Vietnam War were fought are fabrications of the Cold War “reality.”

Therefore, it should be asked, what was the real reason that Americans entered these two brutal wars? Why did leading figures among the American elite, many who were so adamant on not joining in the combat against fascism in WWII, become so quickly convinced, that everything having to do with communism, was their personal responsibility to destroy?

These questions will be answered in this series titled “The Fascist Roots of the CIA.”

The CIA and the Pentagon: A Tale of Two Star Crossed Lovers

As discussed in part one of this series, with the Eisenhower-Nixon victory in 1952, the culmination of years of political strategizing by Wall Street Republican power brokers, the new heads of the State Department and the CIA were selected as none other than Foster and Allen Dulles respectively; and they would go on to direct the global operations of the most powerful nation in the world.

It is for this reason that the 1952 presidential election has gone down in history as the triumph of “the power elite.”

The entire period of April 12th 1945 to that fateful Election Day can be best understood as the first stage of America’s coup. This is especially clear between the period of 1945 and 1949, when a number of new pieces of legislation were passed which successfully reorganised the departments within the United States such that much of the government and military decisions would be beholden to the authority of a few men, men who were much more powerful than the president himself.

The National Security Act of 1947, a Trojan horse, was one of the first of this new breed of legislation and led to the creation of the Central Intelligence Agency, placing it under the direction of the National Security Council.

Although it did not explicitly authorize the CIA to conduct covert operations, Section 102 was sufficiently vague to permit abuse. By December 1947, (less than four months after the creation of the CIA), the perceived necessity to “stem the flow of communism” in Western Europe—particularly Italy—by overt and covert “psychological warfare” forced the issue and NSC 4-A was born.

NSC 4-A was a new directive to cover “clandestine paramilitary operations, as well as political and economic warfare,” this provided the authorization for the intervention of the CIA in the Italian elections of April 1948.

It was understood that the U.S. military could have no “direct” role in covert operations, since that would defeat the purpose of deniability.

The Communist Party of Italy, admired for leading the fight against Mussolini, was expected to win in Italy’s first post-war election. This, of course, was considered intolerable under the Iron Curtain diktat and American covert operations were deployed to block the anti-fascist victory. Investigative journalist Christopher Simpson writes in his book “Blowback,” how a substantial part of this funding came from captured Nazi assets. This intervention, according to Simpson, tipped the balance in favour of Italy’s Christian Democrats Party, which hid thousands of fascists in its ranks.

In just a few months from its creation, the CIA went from what was supposed to be a civilian intelligence gathering arm of the government to being responsible for covert operations including “psychological warfare.” This was a far cry from what had organised the United States prior to WWII, and which relied on a civilian army. Such a government mandate for cloak and dagger operations during a time of peace would have been considered unthinkable.

But that is why the Cold War narrative was so imperative, since under this paranoid schizophrenic nightmare, it was thought the world would never be at peace until a significant portion of it was wiped out. The Cold War defined a pixelated enemy that was under-defined and invisible to the eye. The enemy was what your superiors told you were the enemy, and like a shape-shifter could take the form of anybody, including your neighbour, your colleague, your partner…even the president.

There would always be an enemy, because there would always be people who would resist the Grand Strategy.

NSC 4-A was replaced by NSC 10/2, approved by President Truman on June 18th 1948, creating the Office of Policy Coordination (OPC). NSC 10/2 was the first presidential document which specified a mechanism to approve and manage covert operations, and also the first in which the term “covert operations” was defined.

From 1948-1950 the OPC was not under CIA’s control, but rather was a renegade operation run by Allen Dulles. OPC was brought under CIA control in October 1950, when Walter Bedell Smith became Director of Central Intelligence, and it was renamed the Directorate of Plans.

Although the CIA was strictly in charge of covert operations, it often needed the military for additional personnel, transport, overseas bases, weapons, aircraft, ships, and all the other things the Department of Defense had in abundance. In reality, the military, whether it liked it or not, found itself forever in the embrace of its toxic lover, the CIA.

Prouty writes in 1992:

OPC and other CIA personnel were concealed in military units and provided with military cover whenever possible, especially within the far-flung bases of the military around the world… The covert or invisible operational methods developed by the CIA and the military during the 1950s are still being used today despite the apparent demise of the Cold War, in such covert activities as those going on in Central America and Africa…the distinction between the CIA and the military is hard to discern, since they always work together.

A Daring Declaration

On Sept. 2nd, 1945, Ho Chi Minh signed the Declaration of Independence for a new nation, the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, which stated the following lines:

 “A people who have courageously opposed French domination for more than eighty years, a people who have fought side by side with the Allies against the Fascists during these last years—such a people must be free and independent.

Ho Chi Minh had been leading the nationalist Viet Minh independence movement since 1941 against the colonial rule of Japan. Like most of the world, Ho Chi Minh viewed the war against the fascists as aligned to a war against imperialism. He believed that if the world was to finally make a stand against such tyranny, than there would be no place for colonialism in the post-war world. The world would have to be organised according to the recognition and respect of independent nation states, along the lines of Roosevelt’s post-war vision.

After a long and horrific battle against the ruthless Japanese fascists, with support during the war from the United States and China, it was the hope of Ho Chi Minh that Vietnam could return to its former days of peace with its new-found independence from colonial rule.

The Japanese had surrendered and were leaving. The French had been defeated by the Japanese and would not return—or so it was thought.

Vo Nguyen Giap, Ho Chi Minh’s brilliant military commander, while serving as Minister of the Interior of the provisional government, delivered a speech describing the United States as a good friend of the Viet Minh. That, too, was in September 1945. Ho Chi Minh had been supplied with a tremendous stock of military equipment by the United States, and he expected to be able to administer his new government in Vietnam without further opposition.

But on September 23, 1945, shortly after the Democratic Republic of Vietnam had issued its Declaration of Independence, a group of former French troops, acting with the consent of the British forces (who had been given jurisdiction of the area from the Potsdam Conference) and armed with Japanese weapons stolen from surrender stockpiles, staged a local coup d’état and seized control of the administration of Saigon, in South Vietnam, known today as Ho Chi Minh City.

By January 1946, the French had assumed all military commitments in Vietnam and reinstalled the French government.

It should be understood that the removal of the French presence in Indochina was no small feat, since it was not only their military presence that had to be dealt with, but also its business interests including French banks, among the most powerful in Asia. The French had imposed its colonial presence in Indochina since 1787.

Negotiations between the French and the Democratic Republic of Vietnam began early in 1946. Ho Chi Minh traveled to Paris, but the conference failed due to French intransigence.

The French Indochina War broke out in 1946 and went on for eight years, with France’s war effort largely funded and supplied by the United States.

In 1949, Bao Dai, the former emperor who spent most of his time in the lap of luxury in Paris, France, was set up by foreign interest to be the puppet government of the State of Vietnam (South Vietnam).

On May 8, 1950, Secretary of State Dean Acheson announced that the United States would give both economic and military aid to France and to the State of Vietnam. The value of this military assistance surpassed $3 billion.

There was never any official reason for why the United States changed its allegiance from Ho Chi Minh to the French colonial interests and their puppet government. Although Ho Chi Minh’s belief in communism was used to justify this betrayal, the truth was that he was a threat because he considered himself first and foremost a nationalist, who believed that the Vietnamese people were one and that his nation deserved independence from colonial dominance.

It was this nationalism that could not be tolerated in areas of the world which were regarded as imperial territories and subject lands. It is for this very same reason that MI6 and the CIA staged a coup against the beloved nationalist Mosaddegh in Iran, a non-communist who held a Ph.D. in law and was well on his way to removing all British imperial claims on oil in the country after winning his case against the British at the Hague and at the UN Security Council in 1951.

This is why the interests of imperialism and fascism were often linked hand in hand, as seen with Edward VIII (though he was not alone in the British Royal family in his views), the Vichy government in France, King of Italy Victor Emmanuel III who appointed Benito Mussolini as Prime Minister in 1922 (who only deposed Mussolini in 1943 when it was clear they were going to lose the war) and Imperial Japan under Emperor Hirohito.

It is for this reason that we saw, before WWII was even over,the imperialists and the fascists in discussion with each other as to what would form the post-war world. It is for this reason that the countries chosen to oversee this Grand Strategy would be the U.S., Britain, France, Germany and Japan, rather than Roosevelt’s choice of the U.S., Russia, Britain and China.

It is for this reason that the Iron Curtain, that was originally announced, not by Churchill, but rather by German Foreign Minister Count Lutz Schwerin von Krosigk, reported in the London Times on May 3, 1945, was to announce the terms of an indefinite war against communism. In reality, it meant any country opposed to imperial rule, opposed to the idea that some were born to rule and others to be ruled, in other words, imperialism and sovereign nation states could not co-exist.

Ho Chi Minh was an ally to the Americans under the leadership of Roosevelt. However, with Roosevelt’s death and the soft coup that followed, Ho Chi Minh was now an enemy.

The Saigon Military Mission

On January 8, 1954, at a meeting of the National Security Council, President Eisenhower made his views clear that Americans did not belong in the Vietnam War. But that did not really matter.

Eisenhower, who was used to people diligently following his line of command as a General of WWII, was soon to learn that this did not apply as President of the United States.

Among those at the January 8, 1954 meeting of the National Security Council were Allen W. Dulles and his brother John Foster Dulles. There was no way that the Dulles brothers could have misunderstood the words of President Eisenhower.

Yet, on January 14, 1954, only six days after the President’s “vehement” statement against the entry of U.S. armed forces in Indochina, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said:

Despite everything that we do, there remained a possibility that the French position in Indochina would collapse. If this happened and the French were thrown out, it would, of course, become the responsibility of the victorious Vietminh to set up a government and maintain order in Vietnam…[I do] not believe that in this contingency this country [the United States] would simply say, “Too bad; we’re licked and that’s the end of it.

Thus, the seed was planted. If the French were forced out, which was rather predictable, it was understood that the U.S. would not engage in open warfare with the Viet Minh. However, it could carry out clandestine operations against Ho Chi Minh’s forces so as to cause them trouble, or in the words of Foster Dulles “to raise hell.”

This is how American intervention and direct involvement in the Vietnam War began, a war in which the Americans had been arming both sides since 1945 and to which there was no official military objective except “to raise hell.”

According to a record of the January 14, 1954 National Security Council meeting, it was:

Agreed that the Director of Central Intelligence [Allen Dulles], in collaboration with other appropriate departments and agencies should develop plans, as suggested by the Secretary of State [John Foster Dulles], for certain contingencies in Indochina.

And, just like that, the entire overseeing of the Vietnam War was placed into the hands of the Dulles brothers.

Two weeks later, on January 29, Allen Dulles, selected Colonel Lansdale to head the team that was going to be deployed in Vietnam “to raise hell.”

Edward G. Lansdale, chief of the Saigon Military Mission, arrived in Saigon on June 1, 1954, less than one month after the defeat of the French garrison at Dien Bien Phu, for the purpose of a covert operation to conduct psychological warfare and paramilitary activities in South Vietnam.

Prouty writes:

It was not a military mission in the conventional sense, as the secretary of state had said. It was a CIA organization with a clandestine mission designed to “raise hell” with “guerrilla operations” everywhere in Indochina, a skilled terrorist organization capable of carrying out its sinister role in accordance with the Grand Strategy of those Cold War years.

…With this action, the CIA established the Saigon Military Mission (SMM) in Vietnam. It was not often in Saigon. It was not military. It was CIA. Its mission was to work with the anti-Vietminh Indochinese and not to work with the French. With this background and these stipulations, this new CIA unit was not going to win the war for the French. As we learned the hard way later, it was not going to win the war for South Vietnam, either, or for the United States. Was it supposed to?

It should be noted here that although NSC and Department of State records show that the Saigon Military Mission did not begin until January 1954, there were other CIA activities in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos (such as the White Cloud teams) long before 1954, and some members of the SMM had participated in these earlier activities as far back as 1945. (1)

Though Lansdale is listed as a U.S. Air Force Col. who was put in charge of the SMM, this was just a ploy. He would continue in Vietnam, as he had in the Philippines, to exploit the cover of an air force officer and to be assigned to the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) for “cover assignment’’ purposes. He was always an agent of the CIA, and his actual bosses were always with the CIA.

With Ho Chi Minh’s defeat of the French in 1954 at the Battle of Dien Bien Phu, ending the First Indochina War, it was understood that new oppositional leadership would be required if Ho Chi Minh were to be prevented from taking control of South Vietnam.

Ngo Dinh Diem would oust Bao Dai in a rigged referendum vote in 1955, becoming the first President of the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam). The South Vietnamese were not interested in either candidate.

The reader should take note here that South Vietnam (otherwise known as Cochinchina for centuries), had never had a real form of government because it had never been a nation in its entire existence but rather had been made up of ancient villages for several centuries with relatively little change. There was no congress, no police, and no tax-system – nothing essential to the function of a nation. Diem’s “government” was nothing but a façade of bureaucracy.

Despite this, Diem’s Republic of Vietnam was treated as an equal member of the family of nations, as if it could stand on its own two feet and respond accordingly to the crisis its people were being thrown into. The Vietnamese government that Eisenhower believed ought to be fighting the Viet Minh on its own behalf did not exist.

The choice of a predominant number of Indochinese was overwhelmingly for Ho Chi Minh. They felt no loyalty to Bao Dai, who lived in Paris, and they hated the French. Ngo Dinh Diem was a nobody, who never accomplished anything to win the hearts of his people.

The Vietnam War, as it understood today, was full of oversights. But perhaps the most serious oversight of all was that not one of the six U.S. administrations who oversaw the Vietnam War ever stated a positive American military objective for that war. The generals sent to Saigon were told not to let the “communists” take over Vietnam, period. As Prouty stated repeatedly in his book, this does not constitute a military objective.

The Saigon Military Mission was sent to Vietnam to preside over the dissolution of French colonial power. The Dulles brothers knew, by January 1954 if not long before that, that they would be creating a new Vietnamese government that would be neither French nor Vietminh and that this new government would then become the base for continuing the decade-old war in Indochina.

That was their primary objective.

The Geneva Conference, A Genocidal Exodus

The defeat of the French resulted in the Geneva Accords in July 1954 which established the 17th parallel as a temporary demarcation line separating the military forces of the French and the Viet Minh. Within 300 days of the signing of the accords, a demilitarized zone, or DMZ, was created, and the transfer of any civilians who wished to leave either side was to be completed.

Ho Chi Minh and all northern Vietnamese believed the nation to be “one.” They did not want a division of their country, as the Geneva Agreements had guaranteed.

The closing article of the Geneva Agreements, Number 14, a scarcely noticed few lines, read; “…any civilians residing in a district controlled by one party, who wish to go and live in the zone assigned to the other party, shall be permitted and helped to do so by the authorities in that district.

The ominous meaning of this was concealed under the guise of humanitarian words. The American-British note spoke of a “peaceful and humane transfer,” as if they were being kind and sensitive to the situation at hand, ready to uproot people who had lived all their lives in a settled village that had existed for tens of thousands of years.

The people of the world, most of whom had no knowledge of the Tonkinese, were led to believe that this offer was a most compassionate gesture. And, what is worse, the planners of this sinister plot were certain that the people of the world would never learn the truth, that this movement of one million North Vietnamese was really intended to be the kindling that would set the country on fire. It was a set-up and would lay the essential groundwork for America’s direct entry into the war.

The mass exodus of North Vietnamese to South Vietnam would be orchestrated by the Saigon Military Mission. This was a terrible upheaval for these people but it was sold to the West as if they were refugees fleeing Ho Chi Minh. In reality, they were fleeing the “psychological warfare” and “paramilitary tactics” today called “terrorism” that the SMM were unleashing in these small Northern villages.

In their own words, as found in documents released with the Pentagon Papers, leaders of the SMM wrote that the mission had been sent into North Vietnam to carry out “unconventional warfare,” “paramilitary operations, ” “political-psychological warfare,” and rumor campaigns and to set up a Combat Psy War course for the Vietnamese. The members of the SMM were classic “agents provocateurs.”

Prouty writes:

This movement of Catholics—or natives whom the SMM called “Catholics”—from the northern provinces of Vietnam to the south, under the provisions of the Geneva Agreement, became the most important activity of the Saigon Military Mission and one of the root causes of the Vietnam War. The terrible burden these 1,100,000 destitute strangers imposed upon the equally poor native residents of the south created a pressure on the country and the Diem administration that proved to be overwhelming.

These penniless natives…were herded into Haiphong by the Saigon Military Mission and put aboard U.S. Navy transport vessels. About 300,000 traveled on the CIA’s Civil Air Transport aircraft, and others walked out. They were transported, like cattle, to the southernmost part of Vietnam, where, despite promises of money and other basic support, they were turned loose upon the local population. These northerners are Tonkinese, more Chinese than the Cochinese of the south. They have never mixed under normal conditions. wherever these poor people were dumped on the south were given the name ‘‘Communist insurgencies,” and much of the worst and most pernicious part of the twenty years of warfare that followed was the direct result of this terrible activity that had been incited and carried out by CIA’s terroristic Saigon Military Mission.

…Nothing that occurred during these thirty years of warfare, 1945-75, was more pernicious than this movement of these 1,100,000 “Catholics” from the north to the south at a time when the government of the south scarcely existed.

It didn’t take long before the disturbance caused by the Diem-favored northern intruders onto the southern natives broke out into violence. Before long, the “friends,” according to the Diem government and its CIA backers were the one million northern Catholics, and the “enemy”—or at least the “problem”—was the native Cochinese of the south.

The time was right to fan the flames into war and to bring in the Americans.

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Cynthia Chung is a lecturer, writer and co-founder and editor of the Rising Tide Foundation (Montreal, Canada).

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India: A Year of Pandemic, Deadlock, Disaster and Dissent

March 25th, 2021 by Adv Dr Shalu Nigam

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The lockdown that has been imposed almost a year back in the wake of COVID-19 has introduced several changes in almost every part of the world. The virus has not only resulted in damages resulting in high mortality and morbidity, but it has also made adverse qualitative changes in the lives of billions while its socio-political repercussions have devastated economies in the Global South. The pandemic has resulted in not only widening the wealth inequalities but it has also exposed the socio-economic vulnerabilities and the way the social protection system has crumbled depriving billions of their right to dignified life. The neoliberal policies being pushed by the governments over the decades has resulted in deepening of crisis that expands during the pandemic. Also, the lockdown imposed by the state led to chain of events that resulted in the loss of hard-gained rights and further marginalized those on margins. Moreover, the records of sufferings of those vulnerable are being erased from the public memory and are being stifled by the compulsory distortion of reality.

However, those on the margins continued to resist against the authoritarian regimes. For instance, the ill-planned lockdown in India was imposed amidst the protests when the millions of citizens have been dissenting against the Citizenship Amendment Act. As soon as the lockdown is imposed with merely four hours of warning, millions of migrant workers in cities defied the plea of the Prime Minister and walked thousands of miles to reach their homes. A year later, the resistance took a different hue when thousands of farmers began protesting against the farm laws introduced by the government. Also, the unwarranted policies of intense privatization resulted in increasing unemployment pushed by the state compelled millions of workers and students to join the protest. Currently, the situation is that the state, instead of resolving the crisis caused due to the pandemic, seems to have initiated a war against its own citizens. Those in power are lamenting that `too much democracy’ is obstructing the tough reforms while ignoring the plight of the common citizens.

The year of the pandemic, therefore, is about the onslaught of repression by the state whereby the state enacted the anti-people laws and policies behind the garb of lockdown, that have deeply scarred the society, yet on the other side, it has also seen the outrage and the resistance from those who have been marginalized by the autocratic regime. Though the vaccination may heal the impact in terms of morbidity and mortality caused due to the virus, however, achieving justice, political, economic and social, or the democratic ideals as enshrined in the Constitution, may take longer in the society ridden with the inequalities and oppressions at various levels and in different forms. Presently, the situation is that more the state is muzzling the dissent abusing its repressive power, more resolutely are dissenting the protestors. It may therefore be said that the struggle against oppressive policies and laws may continue in the post-COVID world for an idea to forge a better more just world.

The Pre-Lockdown Stage

In December 2019, when the Chinese authorities identified the human case of coronavirus, its neighbor India was witnessing a huge protest against the citizenship laws where the protestors all over the country demanded to scrap the laws claiming that these are discriminatory. (Nigam, 2020 a) Started as a spontaneous gathering at Shaheen Bagh resisting against the police violence and against the citizenship laws, it emerged into a successful non-violent movement to protect the `idea of India’.  Gradually, many Shaheen Baghs emerged across the country where millions of men and women resisted against the repressive legal matrix. (The Indian Express, 2020) The goal of this movement was to protect the constitutional rights where the common people rebelled against the divisive ideology of hate. (Nigam, 2020 b) The government refused to initiate any dialogue with the protestors. Rather steps were taken by the ruling regime to malign the protestors and to question their integrity. The state portrayed the protestors as enemies of the imagined Hindu rashtra. The electricity at the protest site was cut off and the tents set up by the protestors were taken away in the freezing cold. The sites were cleared after 101 days when the lockdown was imposed whereby the protestors vowed to continue their fight for justice. (Lama, 2021) Later, during the lockdown, many students who participated have been arrested. The Supreme Court in October 2020 observed that the right to protest in public places should be balanced with the right of the general public to move without hindrance.

Accounting human losses during the strict lockdown

India imposed a strict brutal lockdown on 24 March 2020, without any preparation or consultation from various departments and ministries, when India had less than 600 cases and nine people died of the coronavirus (Purohit and Parmar, 2021).  1.3 billion population was given only four hours to prepare for the heavy disruption in their lives including restriction on their mobility and complete cessation of economic activities. In order to explain as to why the government imposed the nationwide lockdown on merely four hours notice, it is being explained that this step was taken on the `recommendation of experts’ and after `taking into account the global experience’ to prevent the danger of spread of coronavirus.  (Azam. 2020) The Oxford University tracker that calculated the governments’ response to COVID-19 has identified India’s response as one of the most stringent in the world. (India Today, 2020) Other scholars have termed it as a punitive and a draconian lockdown. (Ray and Subramanian, 2020)

However, as soon as the lockdown was announced, millions of poor men, women and children started walking from the cities to their hometowns defying the appeal made by the Prime Minister on the national television. These workers took to roads while fleeing cities and cowering police batons, in brutal heat while battling hunger and fatigue. (Nigam, 2020 c).  Some squeezed themselves in container trucks while others walked. These informal workers are backbone of economy as they construct buildings and flyovers, cook food, serve in eateries, salons, automobiles, and do other odd jobs to earn meagerly to sustain themselves in the city. However, the state did little to help these desperate citizens. The arrangements for food and the transport was done after much delay and not all those moving could be reached out.

The lockdown, hence, reminded of fear, violence and mass exodus that took place during the Partition of India in 1947 (Hajari, 2020) During the Partition, sectarian and the communal violence forced millions to cross the political boundary, however, this time, the catastrophic ill-planned lockdown endangered the livelihood of those who are survive on hand-to-mouth existence with no social security provision being made available. The fear of survival and homelessness were the major concerns that compel millions to face hardship. (Petersen and Chaurasia, 2020)   In one instance, disinfectant was sprayed on the migrant workers, others were beaten by the police, but that could not deter them to try all possible ways to return to their home.

The mass exodus also happened earlier in 1918 when the Spanish flu gripped the world. At that point of time, the British rulers were hardly concerned about the health or the economy of the colonial India, however, this time too, the state has hardly made any preparation to deal with the calamity. (Sreevatsan, 2020)  Rather the state acted to deny the sufferings of the migrant workers as it declared the pandemic as an `act of God’  (The Telegraph, 2020). Steps are taken to erase the pain and agony of those vulnerable from the public memory while distorting the reality. The human loss is being made invisible by those in power. In the Parliament it is claimed that no data is available on the death of migrant workers (The Indian Express 2020) though some organizations documented 971 non-COVID deaths of workers during the lockdown. (SWAN, 2020) Other database reported that 989 deaths occurred due to the financial distress, exhaustion, train and road accidents, suicides due to fear, absence of facilities, police brutality and so on. (Article-14.com, 2021) Many women and children were compelled to face adverse as the state failed to ensure basic minimum rights guaranteed under the Constitution. (Nigam, 2020 c)  The lived experience of Berjom Bamda Pahadiya, a 54-year-old migrant labourer from Jharkhand who arrived home from Delhi after seven months with no money in his pocket and after being looted and cheated by the contractor resonates with that of millions of other families who have been devastated during the lockdown.

The Supreme Court, too ignored the `crisis within crisis’ of the migrant workers during the pandemic because of the omission of the government to prepare for the lockdown. It is being observed that in the darkest hour, the fundamental rights of the vulnerable citizens, that constitute more than 70 percent of the population, are denied and abdicated by those sitting in the `ivory towers’ of justice though some of the high courts played a stellar role while acting with `rationality, courage and compassion’ to uphold the rule of law (Shah AP 2020; Mihir D, 2020)

How COVID-19 Pushed the Marginals beyond Margins

Economic disruptions due to lockdown also resulted not only in loss of livelihoods, wage loss, poverty, food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition, but also more children are orphaned, or are spending time in domestic work and a digital gender gap left many women and children unprepared for future. As per the UN Report, the health care disruptions caused due to the pandemic has killed 228,000 children in South Asia under 5 years of age and resulted in estimated 239,000 maternal and child deaths. The halt in crucial services such as nutrition, immunization, health care services and range of other services has affected children and increased child mortality by 15.4% in India, 13% in Bangladesh, 21.5% in Sri Lanka and 21.3% in Pakistan. The obstruction in health services with no access to contraception resulted in 3.5 million additional unwanted pregnancies including 400,000 among teenagers. The data indicates that 5,943 additional deaths occurred because of non-availability of treatment related to tuberculosis, malaria, typhoid and HIV/AIDs. The absence of basic public health and educational facilities has curtailed educational attainment of around 420 million school aged children. Only 2 out of every 3 are being reached by remote learning while denying access to children in rural areas in poor households. The report estimated that this disruption in education may cost India of US $ 52.8 billion, Bangladesh US $ 7.4 billion and Sri Lanka $ 1.9 billion in long run. The high dropout rate of adolescent girls and economic hardships of the families is resulting in early marriage and increasing adolescent pregnancies. UN Women termed the COVID-19 pandemic as a `most discriminatory crisis’ that resulted in women losing more jobs as compared to men, also women faced domestic violence or `shadow pandemic’ while pushing 47 million more women into living less than $1.90 per day. (UN 2021)

COVID-19 and the Widening Inequalities

The pandemic has resulted in weakening of economy affecting poorest of the poor while the wealth of the billionaires increased by 35 percent and by 90 percent since 2009 (Oxfam, 2021). The GDP fell down by 24 percent and the estimates suggest that it may take long to recover. The COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force was announced on 19 March 2020 to meet the economic challenges caused due to pandemic however the reports reveal that it never came into existence (ANI, 2020). The economic experts also criticized that the economic stimulus announced by the government during the lockdown remained inadequate to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. (Dutta PK 2020) The report CMIE, 2021depicts that the rate of unemployment increased by 8.7 percent in March 2020, 23.5 percent by April 2020 and by June 2020 it was 20 percent. It is in February 2021 that unemployment rate reached to 6.9 percent. However, the labour force participation rate and employment rate, both remained significantly low. Moreover, the jobs move away from high labor productive sectors such as manufacturing and services to low productivity sectors such as agriculture and construction (The Economic Times, 2021). Another research shows that the pandemic pushed 32 million Indians out of the middle class (those earning 10 to 20 $ a day) leading to sharper rise in poverty while undoing years of economic gains (NDTV, 2021). It is estimated that the number of poor people with income of less than 2$ or less each day has gone up by 75 million due to the recession induced by the pandemic. As a result, those on the brink, not only suffered due to government’s inaction but are being pushed further beyond margins. The state has done little to mitigate the social and economic impact of the pandemic rather it pushed for tough reforms and attempts are made to crush and muzzle any resistance from the citizens.

The Weak Social Protection System

During the pre-pandemic period too, the government has been pushing for tough economic reforms.  The measures such demonetization and GST has already crumpled and weakened the economy. The imposition of stringent lockdown further made adverse impacts. (Kumar A, 2020) During the lockdown, hunger and unemployment rise rapidly. The Food Corporation of India had four times the buffer stock yet the state discontinued the supply of food grains through Public Distribution System in November 2020. (Narayanan, 2021) The post pandemic recovery approach ignored the plight of the citizens as evident by the lesser allocations towards social safety programs such as reducing the expenditure on the Rural Employment Guarantee Act by 73,000 crores, leading to increasing stress for the bottom pyramid of population. Also, the government scrapped 3 crores ration cards for not linking it with Aadhaar card denying common people their basic right to food as ensured under the National Food Security Act of 2013  (NDTV, 2021) Instead of mitigating the impact of lockdown, the government initiated a series of reforms in the labour and the agriculture sector without consultation or debate from various stakeholders. These reforms aimed at increasing flexibility and supporting the employers and corporates rather than protecting the rights of the farmers or workers. Pushing such economic reforms is creating chaos. (Jha 2021)

The Farmer’s Protest

Farmers’ protest in India. Source: Green Left

It is during the lockdown that the farmers began their agitation against the three farm laws enacted by the state to liberalize the agricultural market by flouting all democratic norms. (Jain RK and V Suresh, 2021) Instead of addressing the agrarian crisis or resolving the issues relating to farmers’ debt or suicide, or providing safety nets to protect the rights of farmers, the state pushed the neoliberal agenda to empower the market. In September, 2020 while laying siege to the malls, the farmers cordoned the godowns belonging to the corporates, occupied the railway tracks and burned the effigies of the Prime Minister and the corporate bigwigs. (Ziya, 2021) On 26 November, 2020, thousands of farmers rode on tractors, bikes, cars and trucks to start an indefinite sit-in in the capital. When prevented from reaching Delhi, they camped themselves at the borders of the capital. The state though engaged with the farmers and held several discussions with them, it also acted vengefully while using water cannons in freezing cold, digging up trenches on the road and putting fenced blocked, nails, barbed concertina wires. Iron lances and maces were mixed with cement were put up blocking the roads and with these resentful actions the state also obstructed the process of negotiations. Water connection, toilet facilities and internet were blocked at the protest sites, social media was censored while draconian laws were used against the protestors while demonizing them. The protestors were dubbed as separatists, secessionists, paid protestors or Khalistanis. The international celebrities who tweeted in support of the protest were slammed whereas the international diplomats have been rebuked by the Indian government (BBC, 2021b). Multiple petitions have been filed in the courts to remove the protestors projecting the issue as right to protest versus the right to public convenience (Chaturvedi, 2020) rather than actually addressing the true causes for which the protestors raised their voice. As I write, the protest has completed almost four months, yet a breakthrough remained elusive. However, during this period, the protest that began with a group of farmers slowly is emerging as a mass struggleresonating across villages, chaupals and tea stalls (Khan, 2021). It is gaining momentum with many students and workers joining and extending their support. (Kumar, 2021)  Some are terming these developments as a satyagraha. (The Conversation, 2021)

Dissenting Citizens versus the State

The omissions and commissions by the government besides its dereliction of duties has caused much anguish among citizens – for some it entails loss of lives due to non-COVID reasons, others faced extreme starvation, debt, loss of livelihood, stress, atrocities of various kinds committed on them by police and administration in the garb of compliance of lockdown norms. The past year shows that government is at the war with its own citizens, be it women protestors at Shaheen Bagh protesting to scrap citizenship laws, the migrant workers who walked miles as soon as lockdown was imposed or the farmers who are continuing to protest against the farm laws. The state is adamant of not only dissecting the existing citizenship matrix denying the citizens their rights, but it is also pushing the neoliberal reforms guaranteeing the domination of the market. World over, the research shows that the economic liberalization has not guaranteed efficiency, rights or protection to the marginalized groups. Instead, economic approach that promotes massive deregulation has led to market volatility and has denied and deprived livelihood to many. However, the state is adamant and is muzzling dissent using various tactics. Several international organizations have intervened and called for the state authorities to protect the basic rights of the citizens to protest. (The Amnesty International, 2021)

Yet, at the local and the national level, the dissent is growing stronger. The creative non-violent resistance at the ground level is paving the way for the independent journalism (DW.com, 2021) reviving the brotherhood or `bhaicharabetween the Hindu and the Muslim communities in western Uttar Pradesh where for decades the electoral politics has utilized the divide and disharmony to its vested interest, garnering international attention (UN News, 2021, The Hindustan Times, 2021), initiating debates on issues relating to democracy and governance among the common citizens and more importantly giving voice to the women who are being excluded and made invisible for decades (Bhowmick and Sonthalia, 2021) In fact, hassled with the protests and different forms of resistance by the citizens, those in the ruling regime lamented that `too much democracy’ is making the tough reforms difficult.

Marching Ahead in Post-COVID world

A year of pandemic shows that more than a medical calamity, the crisis is humanitarian and arose because the fascist state is pushing the neoliberal agenda behind the garb of the lockdown. The lockdown has provided an opportunity to the authoritarian state to utilize its repressive apparatus to deny common people of their rights while consolidating power relationship with the rich corporates. The V-Dem Institute and the Freedom House both have downgraded the world’s largest democracy to a flawed and partially free democracy. Despite the abuse of power by the state, the masses are not blindly following the traps laid down by the corporate controlled media and are resisting to save the democratic ideals. The mass mobilization during the lockdown as evident by the farmers’ protest against the ruling regime has re-kindled a heated debate on several issues such as survival with dignity, culture, corruption, identity, federalism, dissent, democracy and more importantly the `idea of India’. The continuous resilience and resistance by the common citizens against the government’s failure to uphold the constitutional values are igniting change, depicting the power of the people and is indicating towards the strength of democracy as imagined by the makers of the constitution. The citizens driven dissent against the citizenship laws, the social movement by the farmers, or the defiance by the workers who walked thousands of miles, all are the part of articulation of disagreement with the arbitrary laws and the policies of the government by the common citizens. Whether the demands being made by the protestors crystalize into action or not, what is significant is that these protests are initiating a debate and are heightening the political consciousness that is critical to functioning of democracy. The ruling regime may arbitrarily enact the anti-people laws in haste, however the citizens are mobilizing and challenging those in power. These acts of resistance against neoliberalism as well as against nationalist communalism depict solidarity among subalterns that is essential to build a cohesive society in the post-COVID world. Looking beyond the binaries of triumph or failure of social movements is vital to bring in social transformations to shape human destinies and to reaffirm the commitments towards inclusion, justice, equality and above all the human dignity.

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The author is an advocate, researcher, and activist working at the intersection of gender, law, governance, and human rights issues. Her publications include The Founding Mothers: 15 Women Architects of the Indian Constitution (coauthor, 2016) and Women and Domestic Violence Law in India: A Quest for Justice (2019). She has been a regular contributor to countercurrents.org and has published essays in journals such as the South Asia Journal, Social Action, International Journal of Gender and Women’s Studies, and Legal News and Views. Her forthcoming book is titled as Domestic Violence Law in India: Myths and Misogyny.

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In a Shift, Pakistan Suing for Peace with India

March 25th, 2021 by FM Shakil

All Global Research articles can be read in 27 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version).

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Pakistan has unveiled a new “geo-economic vision” that offers to “bury the past” with neighboring rival India if it reciprocates with a “relaxation” on the two sides’ long-running dispute over Kashmir.

Pakistan’s olive branch announcement, made on March 18, comes after last month’s bilateral resolution to revive an 18-year-old ceasefire agreement to end Kashmir’s Line of Control (LoC) skirmishes, which have claimed thousands of lives on both sides of the divide over the years.

By de facto offering peace with India, Pakistan appeared to turn the page on its trademark militarized rhetoric by calling for a new bilateral emphasis on “infrastructure development and regional integration” for the sub-continent.

General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan’s army chief, made the pledges while addressing the first-ever Islamabad Security Dialogue on March 18, vowing “non-intervention” in the internal affairs of neighboring and regional countries while acknowledging that unless “one’s own house is in order, nothing could be expected from the outside.”

Bajwa, moreover, called for peaceful coexistence, non-interference, boosted intra-regional trade and connectivity, and the creation of new intra-regional investment and economic hubs as the four pillars of his geo-economic vision.

“On top of it, we spend huge money on defense which creates a paucity of funds for human development programs. That is precisely the reason that despite rising security challenges, Pakistan has resisted the temptation of an arms race in the region and over time scaled down the country’s defense expenditure,” Bajwa claimed.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir since British colonialists left the subcontinent. Pakistan’s de-escalation of its conflict with India, of course, is still only rhetorical.

A report published this month by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) placed Pakistan among the top 10 major arms importers of the world and the biggest in Asia for the period spanning 2016-2020, accounting for 2.7% of total arms sales.

Moreover, the report revealed that Pakistan had several overdue orders for arms scheduled for delivery through 2028, including 50 combat aircraft, eight submarines and four frigates from China, and four frigates from Turkey.

But the signals emanating out of Pakistan are increasingly peaceful. Prime Minister Imran Khan said that economic prosperity was possible only in a serene regional neighborhood.

“We would not take full advantage of our geostrategic location until we have regional peace and our trade relations with our neighbors restored,” he said on March 17.

The shift from a security to economics orientation will be contentious in Pakistan. A senior Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) opposition leader who requested anonymity told Asia Times that General Bajwa had no constitutional right to say what he said about the nation’s future course of action vis-à-vis India.

“A soldier cannot dictate terms for a peace process, which is the job of political leadership to decide. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Khan has outsourced his responsibilities, which has disrupted the power equilibrium. That is why the army chief is overstepping his constitutional responsibilities,” he said.

The opposition politician said that Bajwa’s proposed de-escalation of border tensions and shift towards a “geo-economic” strategy ultimately aimed to push ahead stalled infrastructure development projects and regional connectivity schemes now being built under China’s global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

A map shows the route of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Photo: Wikimedia Commons/Wanishahrukh

The two sides are currently engaged in a $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor infrastructure development program that has recently stalled on security concerns, including in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province. Bajwa has been a major supporter of the CPEC and is a key point person for Beijing.

“Beijing’s huge investment cannot achieve its objective unless peace is returned to the region and in my view, China did play a role in bringing India and Pakistan back to the negotiation table under an 18-years old Line of Control (LoC) ceasefire agreement at a time when the situation on both sides was tense,” said the opposition politician.

The peace overtures between New Delhi and Islamabad began last month when both countries agreed on a ceasefire at the Line of Control (LoC) under an old agreement reached in 2003. A statement jointly released on February 25 revealed that the nuclear powers have agreed to follow all agreements and understandings reached since 2003 to maintain a ceasefire across the LoC.

The statement added that the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) on both sides decided to address all such mutual concerns that could create mistrust on both sides and ignite LoC violations so that the situation does not boil up on the border.

The announcement was highly unexpected, leaving analysts and observers to speculate how and why it was brokered. International media reports have suggested various behind-the-scenes motivations.

Some have speculated that the US helped to broker the deal to make Pakistan exclusively focused on the security situation in Afghanistan, which threatens to devolve into chaos and mayhem as a vowed US troop withdrawal, which may or may not happen, approaches in May.

Others have suggested China helped drive the deal. The China-India Himalayan standoff over contested territory in Ladakh, some speculate, pushed New Delhi to normalize with Pakistan, as Indian fears of a potential two-front armed conflict spiked in recent months.

The fact that India and Pakistan’s ceasefire announcement came just two weeks after China and India reached a similar arrangement reinforced the speculation. Beijing and New Delhi jointly announced a military disengagement in the north and south of Pangong Lake to end a nine-month stalemate at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

“Does India think it has obtained nominal objectives so it is time to take an off-ramp?, Asfandyar Mir, a scholar at Stanford University who specializes in South Asian security affairs, asked.

“Alternatively, due to sustained Chinese pressure over the last year, Indian policymakers feel they need to pull back on the level of hostility with Pakistan? Both are plausible, but I speculate the Chinese pressure on India over the last year has been substantial and exerted more influence on India’s decision to de-escalate [with Pakistan.]

“India’s decision to re-engage is somewhat more surprising. For years, India has sought to keep the temperature on the LOC high not just for local, LOC-specific goals but also in the furtherance of India’s broader coercive strategy,” Mir said. “The strategy has been to change Pakistani policies of supporting various India-specific jihadists and separatism in Kashmir, as well as the country’s longstanding claim on Kashmir,” he added.

Pakistani officials, for their part, say there is no secret push behind the de-escalation of hostilities. The deal “will save innocent lives so no-one should question the intent nor should wrong inferences be drawn,” Moeed Yousaf, special assistant to Prime Minister Khan, wrote on Twitter.

“There is nothing more than (what) meets the eye here.”

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The ongoing injustices and dispossession of First Nations peoples can be seen in the devastating impact of stolen water rights.

A 2020 report from Griffith University researchers on the diminishing water rights of Traditional Owners of the rivers which make up the Murray Darling Basin confirms the extent of First Nation’s dispossession.

Trends in Aborginal water ownership in New South Wales, Australia: The continuities between colonial and neoliberal forms of dispossession details how reduced access to safe drinking water has led to difficulty in maintaining cultural practices which have helped devastate riverine environments and wetlands.

Across 10 catchments in the New South Wales portion of the Murray-Darling Basin, Aboriginal people make up almost 10% of the population. Collectively, however, they have access to just 12.1 gigalitres of water — 0.2% of all available surface water.

The population of First Nations peoples is predicted to rise to 15%, which the authors say will worsen water dispossession.

The Griffith study found that the value of water held by Aboriginal organisations was $16.5 million (over 2015–16), just 0.1% of the value of the Murray-Darling Basin’s water market.

From 2009–2018, water rights held by Aboriginal people in the Murray-Darling Basin in New South Wales shrunk by at least 17.2%, or 2 gigalitres of water per year. No new entitlements were acquired over the decade.

The federal government has set aside $40 million to buy water back for Aboriginal organisations but, so far, this has not happened. In a drastically over-allocated free market water allocation system, this is unlikely to be anything more than token.

However, last November the Victorian government announced a landmark reallocation of 2 gigalitres of water outside of the Murray Darling Basin on the Mitchell River to the Gunaikurnai Land and Waters Aboriginal Corporation.

Improvements in water management in the Gippsland region have led to unallocated water being returned to First Nations peoples for cultural, environmental and economic purposes. Aboriginal Water Rights advocate Will Mooney said the Gunaikurnai water grant showed the state government recognised First Nations’ “inherent rights” and that “water justice needs to involve that transfer of water back”.

But Troy McDonald, a spokesperson for the Gunaikurnai Land and Waters Aboriginal Corporation (GLaWAC), cautioned about the barriers that remain for Traditional Owners in their allocation of water. Writing for the November 20 The Conversation, McDonald said: “Victoria’s water entitlement framework is consumption-based — it is designed for water to be taken out of rivers, not left in.

“This can make it hard for Traditional Owners to leave water in the river for the benefit of the environment. So water entitlements and rules should be changed to reflect how traditional owners want to manage water.”

GLaWAC want water recovery reforms to cover fees and charges, which can run into tens of thousands of dollars each year.

Land rights and Native Title claims awarded to Traditional Owners in other states have excluded rights to water.

When the Barkandji of the Barwon Barka Darling Rivers won their title, after 18 years of legal battle in 2015, it came with no water, wetlands or riverine environments. These ecosystems have since all collapsed, with devastating impacts.

The Traditional Owners of Lake Victoria, near the South Australian border, have been pushing for compensation for the land and water that have been taken from them.

Murra Wurra Paakintji elder Dorothy Lawson is using laws that led to her people’s dispossession to make the claim under the Nullum Tempus Act and the principle of adverse possession for the lake where her people once lived.

Lawson said her great-grandfather, Dan McGregor, along with his Maraura contemporaries, obtained the possessory title of their homeland in western NSW in 1848, having lived there, uninterruptedly, for 60 years since the British colony was set up.

In 1922, NSW allowed SA to take charge of Lake Victoria, and use it for water storage. Three judges of the NSW Court of Appeal have now ruled that any rights Lawson held over that land were converted into a claim for compensation under the Public Works Act when SA assumed management of the lake.

It remains to be seen whether the SA Water Minister and NSW solicitors will appeal that decision in the High Court. The case is currently listed for the Land and Environment Court.

The Murray-Darling Basin Plan included detailed rules for how states must engage with the views of First Nations peoples.

But, until last year, no Aboriginal representative had been appointed to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority Board. Nari Nari man Rene Woods, former CEO of Murray Lower Darling Rivers Indigenous Nations, was finally appointed in November.

Following the litany of errors leading up to, and since, the fish kills on the Darling River, the NSW government is finally being dragged to the table.

Murray Lower Darling Rivers Indigenous Nations spokesperson Will Mooney told Green Left:

“They have had to recognise that there was a complete absence of recognition of First Nations’ water rights and that the public discussion has moved forward so much [showing] that their policy framework was seriously deficient.

“We need much stronger commitments and actions to recognise cultural flows, First Nations Rights to access water and their right to have a really strong role in water management.”

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Featured image: Murrumbidgee River. Photo: Tracey Carpenter

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Abstract: This paper focuses on Meiji Japan’s annexation of the Ryukyus as seen through the eyes of key Western diplomats in the 1870s. Although it played out over seven years, the annexation process unfolded relatively smoothly on the international stage. One reason for this was the skill with which Japanese diplomats handled inquiries and potential protests by Western diplomats. In this article, I show that, as early as 1872, leading members of the Meiji government were gaining familiarity with the nuances of Western diplomatic maneuvering. Indeed, in some ways the annexation functioned as a rehearsal for future diplomatic challenges the regime would face. In retrospect, it offers an excellent lens through which to view Japanese diplomacy of the 1870s.1

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Following the restoration of imperial power, Meiji Japan embraced modernization and, as part of this process, it sought to determine its national borders in order to create a modern nation-state. In the north, in 1869, the Meiji leaders incorporated the former foreign territory known as “Ezo,” renaming it Hokkaido; in 1875, they exchanged the island of Sakhalin with Russia in return for the acquisition of the Kuril Islands; in the south, in 1876, they annexed the Bonin Islands through a formal declaration; and in the same year, they imposed an “unequal treaty” on Korea, employing the same kind of gunboat diplomacy that Commodore Matthew Perry had used against Japan in 1853-54. Finally, in 1879, Japan formally annexed the former kingdom of the Ryukyus.

As previous scholarship has shown, by the early 1870s Japanese diplomats had recognized the interconnected nature of Japan’s unresolved border issues and the need to devise a comprehensive policy towards them.2Although I fully acknowledge the importance of understanding Meiji Japan’s national border issues as a single question, in this paper I confine myself to addressing the Ryukyuan annexation to Japan.

Dissatisfied with the Ryukyus’ ambivalent status – China and Japan both laid claims to the territory – in the new era of international relations, between 1872 and 1879 Tokyo’s leaders resorted to political and diplomatic maneuvers that aimed to formally incorporate the Ryukyu Kingdom into the newly established Meiji state. They ordered the Ryukyus to dispatch an embassy to Tokyo, where they appointed the ruling monarch as “King of the Ryūkyū Domain”; sent a punitive mission to Taiwan to avenge the deaths of a group of Ryukyuan fishermen considered to be “Japanese subjects”; concluded, through British mediation, an international agreement with the Qing court that (implicitly) stated that the Ryukyuan people were Japanese; ordered the kingdom to cease tributary relations with China; and, finally, in the face of strong resistance from the Ryukyuan authorities, annexed the kingdom by force.

Historians have conventionally referred to this process, which culminated in the establishment of Okinawa prefecture in 1879, as the Ryūkyū shobun (“the disposition of Ryukyu,” 1872-1879; hereafter “annexation”).Gregory Smits has pointed out that during the 1880s, “the shobun became an international event, involving diplomatic activity between and among China, Japan, Britain, the United States, France, and, of course, former officials of the Ryūkyūan court.”4

As Smits’ analysis suggests, the Ryukyu islands presented the new Meiji State with a diplomatic conundrum, one that involved not only relations with China, but also its relationship with several Western countries, especially those which had negotiated treaties with the Ryukyus (“Lew Chew”) in the 1850s. In other words, the Meiji leaders needed, at the very least, the powers’ tacit approval of their future plans for the islands.5

This paper focusses on the annexation as seen through the eyes of a number of key Western diplomats during the 1870s. Had these diplomats chosen to make a serious issue of Japan’s annexation of the Ryukyus, the matter could easily have become more complex and international tensions escalated. Although it played out over seven years, the annexation unfolded relatively smoothly on the international stage. One reason for this was the skill with which Japanese diplomats handled questions and potential protests by Western diplomats. As we will see, a number of their inquiries were directed specifically at the Ryukyuan treaties.6

As early as 1872, leading members of the Meiji government were becoming increasingly adept at interpreting the nuances of Western diplomatic maneuvering.7 Indeed, the annexation of the Ryukyus can be seen as an early example of the future diplomatic challenges the regime would face. In retrospect, the annexation provides an excellent lens through which to view Japanese diplomacy of the 1870s.

The Ryukyuan treaties

In 1609, the Ryukyu Kingdom was defeated by the Satsuma Domain and surrendered unconditionally; as a result, it was placed under the de facto rule of Satsuma (and by extension, of the Tokugawa bakufu).8 However, the Ryukyus continued to maintain the posture of an independent country, with Satsuma’s approval and financial support, in order to maintain tributary relations with China.9 In this way, while Satsuma gave the kingdom a high degree of autonomy in its internal affairs, it exercised considerable control over the kingdom’s foreign relations and created what Smits has called a “theatrical state” in its relations with China.10

After centuries under this arrangement, Westerners arrived in East Asia, visiting both the Ryukyus and Japan. Subsequently, the United States, France, and Holland concluded treaties of amity with the Ryukyu Kingdom in 1854, 1855, and 1859, respectively. In so doing, these Western nations recognized that the kingdom possessed at least some degree of diplomatic capacity, as the Ryukyuan authorities had signed these various agreements without the direct involvement of Satsuma officials. Ryukyuan officials drafted the treaties they exchanged with their Western counterparts in classical Chinese and dated them according to the Chinese calendar, omitting any reference to the kingdom’s subordination to Japan.

The Ryukyuan officials who negotiated with these Western powers were exercising the same kind of “theatrical diplomacy” that the Ryukyus had employed for centuries with China. While they repeatedly emphasized the kingdom’s status as a tributary of China, they never revealed their subordinate relationship with Satsuma and the bakufu.11 Although the powers’ arrival was perceived as a threat to the kingdom’s stability, and the Ryukyuan negotiators took great pains to prevent the signing of these agreements, in the end, they succumbed to the Westerners’ demands.

In the 1850s, Western observers were further prevented from fully understanding the Ryukyus’ status by the bakufu’s ambiguous replies when they asked about its relations with the kingdom. When, in early 1854, Commodore Perry demanded that bakufu officials open the port of Naha, the Japanese negotiators replied that “the Ryukyu islands are very distant and the opening of its ports cannot be discussed by us.” It was following this reply that Perry decided to sign a treaty with the Ryukyus without the bakufu’s involvement.12

On the other hand, the bakufu did not raise any objection to the compacts the Ryukyus signed with the US and France, and when in 1857 the Dutch asked the shogunate to mediate a treaty between Holland and the Ryukyus, the shogunate replied that even though the Ryukyu Kingdom shitagafu (obeys or submits) to Japan, moto yori gaikoku no koto nite (“it has been a foreign kingdom from the beginning”), and thus it would be problematic for Japan’s rulers to give instructions about such a treaty.13 From the bakufu’s perspective, the Ryukyus were subordinate to Japan, but not part of Japan; thus, they thought it prudent not to intervene in the Ryukyuan–Dutch Treaty. Although, at that time, the bakufu did not fully grasp that an international treaty was an agreement signed by two sovereign states and all the ramifications that flowed from that, it still tacitly approved the instruments signed by the Ryukyu Kingdom in the 1850s.

The Ryukyuan–American Treaty concluded on July 11, 1854, stipulated that American citizens in the Ryukyus should be treated with courtesy and friendship; Americans were granted the right of free trade and the ability to move freely on the islands without restriction, as well as the right of extraterritoriality (but not of consular residence); and that US ships in difficulty should be assisted and treated with courtesy by the Ryukyuan authorities. In the French treaty, in addition to these privileges, the Most Favored Nation clause was also included, along with rights to rent houses, land, and boats. The Dutch treaty was similar to the American treaty, but like the French instrument it also included the Most Favored Nation clause.

In the original documents, these agreements were referred to variously as “treaties,” “compacts” and “conventions.” As the treaties lacked ratification clauses, the rights and relations defined in them were valid and effective immediately following the exchange of the documents between the parties involved.14 However, while the US government ratified its treaty with the kingdom in 1855 (a purely domestic act to formally sanction the agreement), the French and Dutch government decided not to ratify their respective treaties with the Ryukyus in the late 1860s.

Last page of the 1854 Ryukyu-US Treaty
Courtesy of the Diplomatic Archives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (外務省・外交史料館蔵)

As early as 1862, the bakufu had revised its former policy and begun to characterize the Ryukyus as subordinate to both China and Japan, while also strongly affirming Satsuma control over the kingdom as a means of controlling the Western powers’ advances. In this way, the new policy provided the powers with more detailed – but still far from unambiguous – information about the Ryukyus and their relations with China, Satsuma, and the bakufu. Therefore, although in the 1860s the bakufu had no intention of incorporating the kingdom, it had in effect created a diplomatic environment that would prove advantageous to Meiji Japan when it eventually decided to annex the kingdom.15

Based on the foregoing analysis, it is reasonable to dismiss the Ryukyuan treaties as irrelevant and problematic in terms of Japan’s international relations. However, because they remained in place, any encroachment on the islands would potentially involve the Ryukyus’ treaty partners. In the sections that follow, I demonstrate that the discussions between the Japanese Foreign Minister, Soejima Taneomi, and the Western ministers based in Tokyo over Japan’s “alleged” annexation of the kingdom in late 1872 illustrate the intentions – and involvement – of all parties in ways that are not immediately apparent. By examining these negotiations and their outcomes in detail, I tease out Japan’s skillful responses to the powers’ demands in determining the status of the Ryukyus.16

The debate over the political status of the Ryukyus within the Meiji government

Japan’s encounter with the Western imperialist powers generated constant anxiety about the nation’s security. The Meiji leaders fully understood that the “unequal treaties,” which had been signed by the Tokugawa bakufu in the 1850s, had placed Japan in a subordinate position with respect to the Western powers and, because of this, their revision was to be given top priority.D While the main object of the Iwakura Mission of 1871-73 was the revision of the treaties, the Meiji officials who visited the US and Europe clearly understood from the inflexible attitudes of their Western counterparts that it would require a long process of radical reform to achieve their goal. The other pressing issue, as I noted at the outset, was the need for Meiji Japan to establish well-defined national borders.

Although the Meiji government had provisionally assigned control of the Ryukyus to the newly established Kagoshima prefecture (1871), in the spring of 1872, when the Iwakura Mission was abroad, Meiji leaders began to discuss the Ryukyu Kingdom’s political status in earnest. From their discussions, three main proposals emerged.

First, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance, Inoue Kaoru, proposed that Japan abolish the dual subordination system and, in order to enhance the prestige of the Meiji Emperor, bring the Ryukyu Kingdom under exclusive Japanese rule.18

Japan’s Foreign Minister, Soejima Taneomi, who also sought to bring the Ryukyus under Japan’s exclusive rule, proposed that, as a first step, the Ryukyuan king, Shō Tai, should receive his investiture from the Meiji emperor. Soejima also suggested appointing Shō Tai as king of a newly established Ryūkyū Domain and terminating all “private intercourse” (shikō) between the Ryukyu Kingdom and foreign countries.19

The third proposal came from the members of the sain, or Ministry of the Left, who submitted a detailed, nine-point plan that argued that Japan should maintain the status quo by declaring publicly that the Ryukyu Kingdom was subordinate to both China and Japan.20

In the event, the Meiji leaders adopted Soejima’s proposal and the Ryukyu Kingdom was required to dispatch an embassy to Tokyo.

At around the same time (early summer 1872), news of what became known as the Taiwan Incident reached the Meiji government. In 1871, a group of fishermen from the Ryukyus’ Miyako Island were shipwrecked on an isolated part of the Taiwanese coast; 54 of the 69 survivors were killed by indigenous people known as the Botan. For Japan’s leaders, the incident underlined the need to resolve the Ryukyus’ ambiguous political status and incorporate the kingdom into the new Meiji state.21

On October 16, 1872, when the Ryukyuan embassy arrived in Tokyo, the Meiji emperor formally appointed the king of the Ryukyus, Shō Tai, as king of the Ryūkyū Domain – a move that seemed intended to replicate the Chinese emperor’s investiture of the Ryukyuan royal line. Despite this installation having no precedent in relations between Japan and the Ryukyus, the Meiji leaders used it to establish a clear hierarchical relationship between the Japanese emperor and the Ryukyuan king.22 This was the first political measure taken by the Meiji leaders to bring the Ryukyu Kingdom into a closer relationship with their central government administration. It is important to keep in mind, however, that at the time these events were taking place, king Shō Tai was in Okinawa and was unaware that the Meiji government had conferred this new title on him through his ambassadors (the significance of this is made clear below).

For some Japanese officials, the emperor’s investiture of the Ryukyuan king meant that the kingdom’s international treaties were now null and void. For example, on the same day that Shō Tai was appointed king of the Ryūkyū Domain, Kabayama Sukenori, a major general in the Imperial Japanese Army hailing from the former domain of Satsuma, recorded in his diary that Shō Tai’s new role meant that the Ryukyus’ treaties with the Western powers had been effectively rescinded.23 Thus, just as the Tokugawa bakufu had not regarded the Ryukyus’ foreign treaties as an impediment to its control of the kingdom, Kabayama did not foresee further involvement of the Western powers in Ryukyuan matters now that, as he thought, the treaties had been abolished.

Shortly after the investiture, on October 30, 1872, the Meiji government replaced the resident magistrate appointed by Satsuma with a branch office of the Foreign Ministry to oversee the Ryukyus’ diplomatic relations with the powers.

Aware of the diplomatic sensitivities involved, the Meiji leaders decided against informing the Qing of Shō Tai’s new appointment, allowing the Ryukyus to continue tributary relations with China. However, during the Ryukyuan embassy’s stay in Tokyo, the Meiji government informed the American and French representatives, albeit informally, that Japan would henceforth assume responsibility for the Ryukyus – a clear indication of Japan’s new stance toward the kingdom. 

De Long’s request to the Meiji government

In the pre-telegraph age – as was the case in East Asia in the 1870s – the actions and decisions of diplomats stationed abroad often had an immense influence on the diplomacy of their governments. As we will see, it was a time when the exchange of notes between diplomats could change the status of territory regardless of the reality on the ground.

When Foreign Minister Soejima Taneomi revealed his plans for the Ryukyus to the American minister in Tokyo, Charles E. De Long, the status of the treaty that the kingdom had signed with the US in 1854 emerged as a question of major importance.24 After Soejima privately informed De Long of Japan’s annexation of the Ryukyus (as a result of Shō Tai’s appointment as king of the Ryūkyū Domain), on October 20, 1872, the American minister wrote to Soejima seeking clarification of the status of the 1854 agreement:

Understanding you advised me a few days since that the King of the Lew Chew Islands had been called upon by the Japanese Government to resign his titles and estates to it, which had been done, letters patent of nobility issued to him constituting him a member of the nobility of your Empire ranking [him] as to the former daimios, thus incorporating Lew Chew as an integral portion of the Japanese Empire; I feel called upon to call your attention to a Compact entered into between the former Kingdom of Lew Chew and the United States of America, on the 11th of July 1854 … and to ask if the same will be observed in all its provisions by Your Government within the territorial limits of the former Kingdom.25

It is clear from this letter that De Long understood (from Soejima’s words) that Shō Tai had resigned his “titles and estates” to the Meiji government and that the Ryukyus had been incorporated into Japan.26 This is an important point because, according to Japanese sources, at that time (1872) Meiji leaders had not yet made clear their intention “to annex” the Ryukyus.27 As soon as he learned of the kingdom’s new status, De Long sought assurances that the change of status would not negatively affect the US and its treaty.

De Long’s exchange with Soejima in 1872 has long been known to scholarship; previous studies have used it to demonstrate the close relationship between the two men.28 However, earlier studies have failed to consider why, of all the questions he might have put, De Long asked the Japanese government if it would take responsibility for the 1854 treaty.

De Long’s reasoning is clarified in a letter he sent to the US Secretary of State, Hamilton Fish, in which he explained Shō Tai’s new appointment and the consequent formal incorporation of the Ryukyus into Japan. De Long wrote that the king “had accepted” his new title and the kingdom’s incorporation. As we have seen, however, Shō Tai did not know what was happening in Tokyo at that time. Most likely De Long’s understanding was based on what Soejima had told him. Next, De Long noted that the Ryukyus–US Compact, which had been “proclaimed” by American President Franklin Pierce in 1855, “gave to our people certain privileges not embodied in our treaty with Japan” and that because of this he had requested, and obtained, an undertaking from the Japanese Foreign Minister to respect and observe its contents.29

Thus, De Long was unconcerned by the Ryukyus’ new status so long as Americans could continue to enjoy freedom of trade and movement in the islands – a right they did not have in Japan at that time.30

In his letter to Fish, De Long also noted that the Taiwan Incident gave the US an “opportunity” (with the assistance of the former American Consul in Amoi, General C. Le Gendre) to “put our legation at Peking and yourself [Fish] in such rapport with the views and intentions of this government [Japan] as to be of substantial benefit to us and at the same time advance my standing and intimacy with this government [Japan].”31 Because De Long was seeking to ingratiate himself with the Japanese government and be seen to cooperate with them, it seems he had no interest in verifying the accuracy of Soejima’s claims about the new status of the Ryukyus.

In response, Fish approved De Long’s request to take measures to ensure that the Japanese government would observe the Ryukyus–US Compact.32 Fish wrote that “it is supposed that the absorption or incorporation of one state by another does not discharge or release, within the limits of the absorbed or incorporated state, the obligation which it may be under to a third power at the time of such absorption or incorporation.”33 It is thus clear that in the Americans’ interpretation, Japan’s annexation of the Ryukyus was that it was a fait accompli – a precondition for future discussion with Japan as to whether it would respect the 1854 treaty.

Fish’s phrase, “it is supposed,” is of particular interest. In his view, following the incorporation of one state into another, the annexed state’s former obligations included in international treaties would not be rescinded. A thorough investigation of the position of international law on this question at that time would require a separate article. Here, however, it is sufficient to consider the point that precisely because De Long informed Fish that Japan had already assured him that it would uphold American privileges in the Ryukyus, Fish promptly approved this arrangement, which he “supposed” was in accordance with international law.34

The French government is informed of the Ryukyus’ annexation to Japan

The French Minister in Tokyo, Paul Louis de Turenne, also played an important role in events as they unfolded in late 1872.35 On October 16, 1872 (the same day Shō Tai was appointed king of the Ryūkyū Domain), Turenne wrote to his government informing it that some days previously, Soejima had told him of Japan’s intention to claim the Ryukyus, and that this decision was closely connected to the Taiwan Incident. Turenne informed Paris that he understood the reasoning behind Soejima’s plan, since the US and Prussia, which lacked bases in East Asia, might have an interest in the islands. Turenne had responded by telling Soejima that he hoped he would succeed in his intentions. Turenne also reported that he had asked Soejima whether he expected Chinese opposition to Japan’s plans for the Ryukyus, as Beijing had exercised its own rights over the archipelago for three centuries. According to Turenne, Soejima replied that he was planning to propose “a compromise” to the Ryukyuan ambassador: Japanese assistance and abolition of the traditional annual tribute to Satsuma in exchange for the ambassador’s commitment to reject Chinese “interference” in the kingdom’s affairs. Once this deal was accepted, and if the Ryukyuan “prince” (Soejima was likely referring to the king) was willing to renounce his “essential attributes of sovereignty” (aux attributs essentiels de la souveraineté), Soejima planned to have the kingdom redesignated as a han (domain) and to appoint the Ryukyuan king as a member of the Japanese court. Turenne argued that Soejima’s plan deserved serious consideration by the French government because, although he thought it unlikely that the two countries would go to war over the issue, it was likely to destabilize Japan–China relations once China learned of it.36

Turenne’s report to his government reveals that, before Shō Tai was appointed king of the Ryūkyū Domain on October 16, 1872, Soejima had already obtained Turenne’s tacit approval for Japan’s intention to annex the kingdom and transform it into a Japanese domain. Although Soejima told Turenne that he was planning to offer a compromise to the Ryukyuan ambassador, there is no evidence that any such offer was ever extended from the Meiji leaders to the Ryukyuan envoys.

A few days later, on October 29, Turenne again wrote to Paris with the news that Soejima had informed him that the Ryukyuan ambassador had accepted his offer of compromise and, as a result, “apart from the possibility of Chinese interference in this matter,” the territory’s incorporation into Japan “can be considered as accomplished.”37

Although France had earlier signed a treaty with the Ryukyus which was never ratified, Turenne did not refer to this in the letter. For him, the Ryukyu Kingdom was dependent on both China and Japan; he also saw it as the possible target of American and German imperialism, as well as a complicating factor in China–Japan relations. Like De Long, Turenne also accepted Soejima’s statements without verifying them (as we have seen, since there was no offer of compromise on the table, the ambassador could not have accepted what did not exist). Turenne did not seek clarification or verification when Soejima told him that the ambassador had accepted the offer without specifying whether the king had indeed renounced his “essential attributes of sovereignty.”

Thus, French diplomatic sources reveal that in late 1872 Soejima was already talking about the Ryukyus’ annexation to Japan to a senior French official.

At this point, some clarification is in order. Since France had decided not to ratify the treaty it had made with the Ryukyus, it is understandable that Turenne did not raise the treaty as an issue during his meetings with Soejima. As we have seen, rather than seeing the Ryukyus as an independent kingdom, Turenne maintained the view that the islands were subordinate to both China and Japan. However, it is important to appreciate that, based on the surviving sources, neither the Ryukyuan, Meiji, nor Qing governments ever made an issue of this lack of ratification. In 1862, a French mission had gone to the Ryukyus and ascertained that the treaty France had signed with the kingdom in 1855 was still being observed by the Ryukyuan authorities. Thus, from the Ryukyus’ perspective, the treaty with France remained in force. However, when in 1867 the French government (after consulting Holland about the status of its treaty with the Ryukyus) decided not to ratify the treaty, it did not notify the Ryukyu Kingdom of its decision to drop the Ryukyuan-French Treaty from its list of formal treaties.38

Thus, in the eyes of the Ryukyuan, Japanese, and Chinese governments, the Ryukyuan–French Treaty was a formal and binding agreement and, as a result, their respective heads of state considered France’s involvement in Ryukyuan affairs to be significant. In other words, far from being a mere bystander, the French government was another actor involved, at least indirectly, in the developing Ryukyuan story. 

Soejima’s response to the Western diplomats’ inquiries

At this point, let us reconsider what we have examined so far from the Meiji government’s perspective. As we have seen, neither De Long nor Turenne sought further clarification about Soejima’s assertions and informed their governments that the Ryukyuan king and his ambassador had accepted the Japanese government’s offers, including the kingdom’s incorporation into Japan.

Returning to the negotiations between De Long and Soejima – as De Long’s inquiry showed, the Americans had privileges in the Ryukyus and were unwilling to renounce their treaty rights. De Long asked that the treaty be honored in all its provisions and sine die (indefinitely). But, at the same time, by using the words “thus incorporating Lew Chew as an integral portion of the Japanese Empire,” he was effectively admitting that the Ryukyus had been annexed. Thus, De Long’s decision not to question the kingdom’s incorporation and to consult Japan alone on the future of the US–Ryukyu Compact was key to determining Soejima’s stance on the Ryukyuan-American Treaty. This had a doubly favorable outcome for Japan: It both offered Meiji leaders a prudent solution to the problem of the pre-existing treaty (by implicitly suggesting that Japan assume responsibility for it) and, more importantly, it assured the Japanese government that, so long as it upheld the treaty in all its provisions, the US would not obstruct Japanese encroachment on the Ryukyus.

Mindful of De Long’s interests, Soejima did not argue that the Ryukyus’ treaties were invalid (or had been rescinded, as some Japanese officials believed), as this would have certainly triggered American objections. As we have seen, in the 1870s Japan was politically subordinate to the Western powers and would not risk antagonizing the Americans on the Ryukyuan issue. The best option for Japan was to accede to the concessions demanded by De Long. On November 5, 1872, Soejima wrote to De Long: “The Lew Chew Islands have been dependencies of this empire for hundreds of years, and to them the title of Han [domain] was recently given.” Giving the Ryukyus the status of a domain was, according to Soejima, all that the Meiji government had done until that point. Then, using De Long’s own words, he went on: “As you [De Long] say, the Lew Chew being an integral portion of the Japanese Empire, it is natural that the provisions of a compact … will be observed by this government.”39

Soejima showed his diplomatic skills by using De Long’s own words to demonstrate that his American colleague had already acknowledged the kingdom’s annexation; this being the case, Soejima felt able to grant major concessions to the US government in return for its tacit approval of Japan’s annexation of the Ryukyus.

In assessing these bilateral discussions, it is important to appreciate that, initially, De Long had asked whether Japan would honor the Ryukyuan–American Treaty, an option that Meiji Japan might have rejected at this stage (Kabayama, for example, was talking about “abrogation” of the treaties, not “upholding” them). Consequently, Soejima accepted De Long’s suggestion that Japan take full responsibility for the treaty signed by the Ryukyu Kingdom with the US. In this way, the Meiji leaders deftly sidelined one of the strongest potential supporters of the kingdom’s autonomy, given that the American government alone had ratified its treaty with the Ryukyus.

Following De Long’s inquiry and Soejima’s response, the US and Japanese governments reached an important, albeit informal, consensus. On December 21, 1872, Mori Arinori, the representative of the Meiji government in Washington, D.C., wrote to Soejima informing the Japanese government that during a “private conversation” with Fish, the secretary of state had assured him that “so long as Japan upholds the [Ryukyuan–American] Treaty in all its provisions and does not make any changes to it, [the US government] will not raise any objections at all.”40

Thus, through an informal understanding between the two governments, the Meiji government obtained tacit approval from the US for the continuation of the Ryukyuan-American Treaty and, more importantly, of Japan’s annexation of the Ryukyus.

From that time, the Meiji government – which, as we have seen, gave little weight to France and Holland’s decision not to ratify their respective Ryukyuan treaties – handled the kingdom’s treaties with kid gloves, even to the extent of making no mention of these agreements during negotiations with France and Holland.41 In other words, Japan left both countries to make the first move in any discussion of the treaties, although the issue was never raised by either party. Japan only discussed the Ryukyuan treaties when other nations raised the matter first, as happened with the US.

In March 1873, with the clear intention of proving that Japan was in charge of Ryukyuan diplomacy, the Meiji government ordered the Ryukyus to hand over the original documents on which the three treaties were based. Although Ryukyuan officials firmly opposed the directive, the documents were seized in May 1874 and the Meiji leaders then returned to the Ryūkyū Domain a copy of the original documents. At that point, the Ryukyuan officials implored the Meiji leaders not to change the content of their treaties during negotiations with the powers.42

A number of other powers were also focusing their attention on the Ryukyuan treaties. On August 27, 1873, at the very time when the foreign ministers in Tokyo were pressing Japan to open up the interior of the country to foreigners, the Italian Acting Minister, Conte Balzarino Litta, and the German Minister, Maximilian A. S. Von Brandt, each sent very similar requests to Soejima. Having acknowledged that the Ryukyus were now an integral part of Japan (even though the islands would not be formally incorporated for six years), they asked the Meiji government to submit notes granting Italian and German vessels and citizens the same rights and privileges included in the former Ryukyuan treaties and extended to the US, France, and Holland. It is interesting to observe that both diplomats considered that, temporarily at least, the simple exchange of notes was sufficient for the granting of these concessions. The alternative, they noted, was for the Meiji government to sign a new treaty that would meet their requests, if that was its preferred option.43

Thus, while the Italian and German representatives sought major concessions (the upholding of the Ryukyuan treaties in all their provisions and indefinitely, even though neither Italy nor Germany had had formal relations with the Ryukyus), by offering to settle the issue through the exchange of notes they also made it clear that they had no intention to undermine the Japanese government; in fact, a simple exchange of letters would avoid invoking the MFN clause enjoyed by all of Japan’s treaty partners.

On September 19, 1873, Soejima replied that he would handle the matter as outlined in their proposal and would inform the Ryūkyū Domain of the new arrangements.44 In this way, in return for Italy and Germany’s tacit approval, the Meiji government granted them the same privileges enjoyed by the US, France, and Holland in the Ryukyus.

Once the Western powers (the US and France and, after 1873, Italy and Germany) had accepted that Japan had formal responsibility for the Ryukyus, Japan had only to convince the Chinese government and, to a lesser extent, the Ryukyuan authorities, who now found themselves stripped of their former (albeit “theatrical”) diplomatic status.

The Western diplomats in Japan were the representatives of imperialist states that were naturally focused on their own interests and privileges. Certainly, they did not feel any moral or other kind of obligation to advocate for Ryukyuan sovereignty or autonomy. Rather, they perceived the kingdom as a minor actor in the East Asian arena, having nothing of great value to offer their ambitions. However, the fact that a number of Western diplomats had accepted the Japanese annexation so swiftly was advantageous for the still politically weak Japan, whose attitude toward the imperialist powers veered between suspicion and admiration. At the same time, the diplomats’ acceptance of Japan’s actions put the Ryukyuan authorities into a difficult spot. They were unaware that the treaties had been superseded by Japan with Western blessing, and they wanted to maintain their former arrangements with China and Japan. In addition, the Chinese government knew nothing about the informal understanding reached by Soejima with a handful of Western diplomats. It was in this context that when in 1873 a group of Ryukyuan officials in Tokyo sought guarantees of their kingdom’s future from Soejima (who had just returned from China for the ratification of the 1871 Sino-Japanese Treaty), the Japanese foreign minister told them that the Ryukyuan polity and government would remain “unchanged through eternity” (kokutai seitai eikyū ai kawarazu).45

Significantly, Western documents reveal information about the annexation that is not found in Japanese sources. In private meetings, Soejima sought to justify the Japanese incorporation of the Ryukyus by assuring De Long and Turenne that the Ryukyuans – the Ryukyuan king and his ambassador – had accepted annexation, despite the fact that this was not the case. In other words, during the build-up to formal annexation, Soejima was careful to ensure that both the US and France (powers that had signed treaties with the Ryukyus) would not raise any objections to Japan’s plans.

Britain had its own intelligence sources on the matter. On October 22, 1872, the British Acting Minster in Tokyo, R. G. Watson, informed his government of the arrival of the Ryukyuan embassy in the Japanese capital, noting that the Meiji government “it seems has taken advantage of the visit of this mission to take Loochoo entirely under its protection, and to incorporate it with the Japanese Empire” as a “Han.”46 It seems that Watson did not receive this information directly from Soejima, as De Long and Turenne had done. Apparently, Soejima selected the diplomats to whom he disclosed Japan’s plans for the Ryukyus.47

The legacy of De Long’s inquiry and Soejima’s response

In May 1874 Meiji Japan invaded Taiwan to revenge the 1871 massacre of a group of shipwrecked Ryukyuan fishermen.48 Although, following protracted negotiations between China and Japan, the two countries signed an agreement on October 31, 1874, they failed to agree on the status of the Ryukyus.

A year later, in early 1875, what was to be the last Ryukyuan tributary embassy arrived in Beijing. The Taiwan Expedition and the arrival of this mission in China showed that the Ryukyus had not in fact been incorporated to Japan, as previously declared in the American and French dispatches.

At this point, the Japanese Acting Minister in Beijing, Tei Einei, informed his American colleague, Minister B. P. Avery, that the Meiji government had decided to assert “the complete jurisdiction of Japan over the islands.” On May 30, 1875, Avery informed the US Secretary of State, H. Fish, of these developments.49

On July 29, 1875, Fish wrote to John Bingham, who had replaced De Long in Tokyo two years earlier, reminding him that “A compact was concluded between the United states and the Royal Government of the Lewchew … granting certain privileges to American citizens and vessels going to the Lew Chew islands.” Fish was citing the very words used by De Long in 1872; now, he instructed Bingham to “examine the question, and in the event of any consolidation of those islands by Japan, see to it that our compact be preserved, unless it should be found more advantageous … to apply the treaty with Japan.”50

These exchanges show that, mindful of the 1872 developments, Fish focused on American privileges that must be “preserved” or even increased in the event that the treaty with Japan proved more advantageous to the Americans in the Ryukyus.

Following Fish’s instructions, on April 4, 1876 Bingham wrote to the Japanese Foreign Minister, Terashima Munenori: “I make these inquiries because it is the wish of my Government to know whether anything has been done in the premises which in anywise contravenes, limits, or changes the subsisting compact between my Government and that of the Lew Chew Islands.”51 Again we see a persistent concern that Japan preserve US treaty rights in the territory of the Ryukyu Kingdom.52

On May 31, 1876, Terashima (who had asked about, and consequently been informed by the Meiji government about Soejima’s 1872 response to De Long53) replied to Bingham, writing that “this government [Japan] has not at any time interfered with the rights of the United States as secured by its subsisting compact with the Lew Chew and before taking such action this Government will confer with the Government of the United States.”54

We can observe a nuanced shift in the Japanese strategy around the Ryukyuan–American Treaty. Whereas in 1872 Soejima had promised De Long to uphold the treaty in its entirety and indefinitely, in 1876, Terashima informed Bingham that Japan had been maintaining American privileges in the Ryukyus. Although, in the near future, Japan was planning to make some changes to the arrangement, he assured his American colleague that “before taking such action,” the Meiji government would inform the US government.

After receiving Terashima’s reply, the US government did not make further inquiries on the matter and, for a second time, the Ryukyuan issue was settled through an exchange of notes between the Japanese Foreign Minister and the American Minister in Tokyo. 

The Ryukyus’ request for help from the US and France in 1878

As part of their attempt to preserve the kingdom, the Ryukyuan authorities called on the US, France, and Britain (whose diplomats also represented the Dutch government in Tokyo) for help. While the events of 1878-79 require a detailed and thorough analysis, in what follows I set out only the major points for reasons of space.55

In August 1878, the American minister John Bingham met a group of senior Ryukyuan officials in Tokyo, who urged the US government to prevent the annexation of their kingdom to Japan. In drafting their petitions, these officials received a good deal of support and guidance from the Chinese legation.

The petitioners set out in detail the five-century history of tributary relations between China and the Ryukyus; they explained that the US, France, and Holland had concluded treaties with the Ryukyus, specifying that the agreements were to be written in Chinese and dated according to the Chinese calendar. “As to our intercourse with Japan” before 1868, the petitioners merely stated that “it was formerly with the dependency of Satsuma.” Next, they detailed the “compulsory orders” issued by the Meiji government from 1872 onward, which, among other things, specified that “all business” in the islands “should be transacted with the Department of Foreign Affairs.” They pointed out that “in your petitioners’ humble opinion though our kingdom be but a small nationality, nevertheless, it is a nationality.” On the treaties, they argued that if the Ryukyus had been prohibited from enjoying the same tributary relations with China, since “the treaties into which we have entered” were written in Chinese and dated according to the Chinese calendar, they “will be like so much wastepaper.” Finally, they pointed out that as “the United States recognized and treated Lew chew as a distinct nationality and permitted us to enter into treaty relations, … we turn to the United States, in the hope that they may advise and induce Japan to leave Lew Chew to remain as it has been hitherto.”56

In sum, the approach taken by the petitioners was to seek Western support based on the Ryukyus’ existing treaty relations and to paper over their former relations with Satsuma and the bakufu.57 (The petitions handed to the French and British legations were very similar in content.)

In response, Bingham informed his government that Japan’s demands on the Ryukyus infringed the Ryukyus–US Treaty and, more importantly, that “It seems to me that this Government [Japan] is too late in asserting supreme authority over those islands after allowing them perfect freedom for five centuries, and manifestly assenting to the action [the signing of the Ryukyu-US Treaty] taken by Lew Chew with our own Government in 1854.”58

Bingham’s response is significant because of the chain of logic that it demonstrated: based on his own interpretation of international law, a senior Western diplomat had concluded that – because Japan had allowed the Ryukyus to continue their relations with China and sign a treaty with the US – there was a good case for the Ryukyus to be seen as independent of Japan. Bingham saw the infringement of the Ryukyuan-American Treaty as a possible reason for American involvement in the issue. Bingham’s criticism of Japan is especially significant when we consider that, in contrast to most Western diplomats, he had displayed an empathy and sensitivity toward Japan during his long tenure in Tokyo (1873-1885) and made serious efforts to revise the many “unequal treaties” that Japan had concluded with the West.59

We cannot dismiss the fact, however, that Bingham based his opinions on the Ryukyuan petition, which failed to mention Satsuma’s de facto control of the Ryukyus.

In late 1878, the American assistant secretary of state, F. W. Seward, replied to Bingham: “According to the information in the possession of the Department the independence of the Lew Chew Islands is a matter of dispute solely between the government of China and the Lew Chew Islands on one side and the government of Japan on the other, and is a question in which this government cannot interfere unless its rights under Treaty stipulations with any of the powers concerned in the controversy appear to be endangered.” Seward also reminded Bingham that “This declaration (the previously mentioned Terashima’s reply to Bingham of May 31, 1876) of the Minister of Foreign Affairs does not appear to be inconsistent either with the stipulation of the instrument above referred to or with any information hitherto communicated to this Department.”60 In other words, the US government saw no reasons to intervene in the matter because Japan had been continuing to honor the Ryukyus–US Treaty.

The Ryukyuan officials fared no better with France. In late 1878, while the Chinese legation in Japan was pressing the Tokyo-based French minister Louis de Geoffrey (who had arrived in Japan a year earlier) to meet the Ryukyuan envoys, Geoffrey wrote to his government that he was trying to avoid meeting the Ryukyuan officials and, more importantly, that France had “no direct interest” in supporting Chinese (and Ryukyuan) claims, even if they were supported by the “law” (or even if they were simply “just”). He also argued that if France had to choose between China and Japan on the issue, it would do better to support Japan, through which “we have more to gain in moral and material [terms].”61

In the end, the Chinese legation succeeded in arranging an appointment between the Ryukyuan envoys and Geoffrey; however, the minister did not change his mind after meeting with the Ryukyuan officials and reading their petition.

At the time, French sympathies were warmer towards Japan than China, as France’s relations with China were becoming increasingly complicated and strained over the Tonkin question concerning the status of northern Vietnam on China’s border. However, it is also important to note that Geoffrey refused to support the Ryukyus, not because France had not yet ratified its treaty with the tiny kingdom, but because he did not foresee any direct interest in championing its cause.62

In early 1879, after a summary of the Ryukyuan officials’ petitions had been published in the Nichi Nichinewspaper, the British minister in Japan, Harry Parkes, questioned Foreign Minister Terashima Munenori about Japan’s plans in the Ryukyus. When Parkes insisted that it was commonly understood that the Ryukyus had been paying tribute to China (in addition to Japan), Terashima argued that the distinction between “tribute” and “taxes” proved that the Ryukyus had not been subordinate to the Qing, but only to Satsuma, which had been collecting taxes from the kingdom.63 This distinction became a crucial argument in Japan’s claims on the Ryukyus as East Asia subscribed increasingly to Western-based international law.

Towards bilateral negotiations

As we have seen, the Meiji government did not rescind the Ryukyuan treaties; instead, Soejima and Terashima promised the powers that their privileges in the Ryukyus would continue. Their promises to the US government bore fruit at the precise moment when the Ryukyuan authorities were seeking American help.

On the other hand, from late 1878, Qing officials were at pains to point out to Japan and Western diplomats alike that the Ryukyu Kingdom had concluded international treaties on its own behalf. The Chinese claims were mainly based on the fact that the kingdom had been a tributary of China for centuries, that the Ryukyus had signed these foreign treaties as an independent state, and that annexation would be in violation of the 1871 Sino-Japanese Treaty.64

After the Qing court began issuing strongly worded protests through its Tokyo-based diplomats opposing Japan’s action in the islands and Ryukyuan officials petitioned foreign diplomats, the Meiji government decided to proceed with formal annexation to avoid the Ryukyuan issue escalating into an international dispute.

Shortly after the establishment of Okinawa prefecture in April 1879, Meiji constitutional expert Inoue Kowashi handed the Japanese government an important memorandum discussing potential friction between Japan and China over the new prefecture.65 Inoue, who drafted most of Japan’s diplomatic documents in the 1870s and 80s, told his government that the three treaties which the Ryukyu Kingdom had signed in the 1850s would likely become a major sticking point for Japan.66

In the memorandum (dated July 3, 1879), Inoue pointed out that if the Qing were to claim that the Ryukyus were a semi-independent state, the Meiji government would find it very difficult to counter this argument. Inoue pointed to numerous examples in the West where, when a powerful state tried to annex a small country which was unable to defend itself, other powers joined together to oppose the incorporation. Inoue feared that the Qing might join with the powers and apply this strategy to the Ryukyus; in such a case, Japan would need to work very hard to counter this kind of argument.

Next, Inoue pointed out that the fact that the Ryukyus had signed treaties with the US, France, and Holland in the 1850s was “a matter of the greatest difficulty” (ichi no kon’nan naru jijō). Because this was tantamount to the bakufu leaders tacitly approving these agreements, the Meiji government would be at great pains to defend its position; moreover, these treaties were valid instruments. Dated according to the Chinese calendar, they were written in Western and Chinese languages, and were formally treaties of amity. Although the Ryukyus had been a Japanese dependency of Satsuma, in their external relations they had seemed to function as an independent state, thus giving the Chinese plenty of ammunition for their claims.

Next, after retracing the exchange of notes between Soejima and Terashima with their American counterparts, and noting that Japan had never made arrangements with France and Holland about the treaties, Inoue pointed out that when the Japanese foreign ministers had advised the American diplomats that Japan would continue to uphold the Ryukyuan-American treaty, this implied that the Meiji government had admitted that the Ryukyuan treaties were valid instruments. It also proved that the Meiji leaders had recognized that, in the past, the Ryukyus had the “right” (kenri) to sign treaties. Given these realities, Inoue foresaw major obstacles for the Meiji government as it sought to support its claims through the lens of international law.67

Inoue warned that what Smits has called the Ryukyus’ “theatrical state and diplomacy,” as well as the Meiji government’s decision to uphold the Ryukyuan-American Treaty, might turn out to be detrimental to Japan’s claims when placed under the spotlight of international law. It is important to note, however, that while Inoue urged his government to prepare counter-arguments to the Chinese claims, he also appreciated that the treaties would become a problem for Japan if the Ryukyuan question became an international issue – that is, if the Western powers became involved (a possibility that, for various reasons, failed to eventuate).68

At the very time Inoue was presenting his memorandum, a number of key diplomats informed their goverments about the Ryukyuan issue. On August 1, 1879, the day that Parkes sent the Ryukyuan petition to the British government, he wrote that “a difference of a grave character has arisen between the Governments of China and Japan” over Japan’s actions in the islands. He stated that, while the Ryukyuan people had been paying tribute to both countries, “they have at the same time formed a separate nationality and have enjoyed their own autonomy.”69 Then, when on August 29 Bingham sent the American government translations of the original documents that the Meiji leaders had presented to the Chinese government on July 16 concerning relations between the Ryukyus and Japan up to 1868 (including the surrender documents signed by the Ryukyuan king and his officials in 1611), he observed that “The paper does not in my opinion make a very strong case if indeed it makes any case whatever for the action taken by Japan in 1872 and since.”70 When Parkes sent the same translations to his government, he wrote “It seems to me that in claiming that they have exercised sovereign control over Loochoo for a long period…the Japanese Government omit to explain why they permitted Loochoo to keep up direct official relations with China…and to send every other year, with marked regularity and considerable ceremony, Public Envoys with tribute to the Court of Peking.”71 It seems that, in the months following their reception, a number of influential Western diplomats had been influenced by the arguments of the Ryukyuan petitioners.

As Inoue’s memorandum shows, the Meiji leaders had already grasped the diplomatic significance of the Ryukyus’ treaties and their potential legal significance. However, since the Ryukyu Kingdom had concluded several international treaties, it lay with the Western powers to choose to minimize their importance; and it was only because of their tacit approval that Meiji Japan was able to take a stronger stance toward China over the treaties.

In late 1879, after the Chinese reasserted their claim that the Ryukyu Kingdom was both a tributary of China and an independent kingdom (citing its international treaties as evidence), the Meiji government strongly rebutted their claims.

The Meiji leaders continued to frame the annexation of the Ryukyus as simply a matter of domestic reorganization by the Japanese government; among other arguments, they asserted that the tribute China had received from the kingdom was merely nominal, and that China’s investiture of the Ryukyuan kings was an empty title. On the other hand, by employing legal notions of effective possession and rule, the Japanese leaders claimed that the Satsuma domain had exercised “substantial effects” upon Ryukyuan “laws, taxes, and internal administration.”72

With regard to the treaties, the Meiji leaders asserted that the Qing had “absolutely no relation” with the Ryukyuan treaties and that the Western powers were the only “parties concerned” (tōjisha). They added that the powers had not grasped the true relations obtaining between Satsuma and the Ryukyus, and that during the pre-modern era, many arrangements had been agreed (according to feudal principles) that would be inconceivable in the present era of centralized government. And they had already assured the Western nations involved that Japan would uphold the treaties. Based on these arguments, the Meiji leaders concluded that the treaties in no way proved that the Ryukyus had not been an “internal dependency” (naizoku) of Japan.73

Even after the kingdom’s formal annexation, the Ryukyuan treaties were never formally abolished74; in late summer 1879, the Meiji government considered assuring the French government that it would uphold the latter’s treaty rights in the Ryukyus (an option that was later abandoned after the Meiji leaders realized that the Ryukyuan-French Compact was not listed among France’s formal treaties).75

In 1880, following the advice proffered by former US president Ulysses Grant, Japan and China agreed to enter bilateral negotiations aimed at settling the Ryukyuan issue. Japan sought to exploit its established position in the Ryukyus to put pressure on the Qing to grant it equal status with the Western powers in China. In the end, however, the two states were not able to find a compromise, and it was Japan’s victory in the First Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95 that, among other factors, effectively resolved the Ryukyuan question in Japan’s favor.

Conclusions

This study has set out to show that, as early as the 1870s, Japanese diplomats were increasingly mastering the nuances of Western-style diplomatic maneuvering. The skill with which Soejima and Terashima handled inquiries and potential protests by Western diplomats bears witness to this point. Soejima persuaded his Western counterparts that the Ryukyuan king and his ambassador had freely accepted Japanese annexation, while, on the other hand, he promised the Ryukyuan envoys that Japan would not change the kingdom’s traditional polity and government.76 In his memorandum, Inoue Kowashi showed a deep understanding of the theory of the balance of power and clearly appreciated that the bakufu’s tacit approval of the Ryukyuan treaties, as well as the Meiji government’s promise to honour the Ryukyuan-American Treaty, could very well undermine Japan’s claims. On the other hand, Chinese and Ryukyuan officials showed their skill in leveraging Western concepts of soveregnty and nationality, which clearly had an impact in 1878-79 on the Western diplomats’ understanding of the Ryukyuan issue. This study has also demonstrated that Meiji Japan benefitted massively from the responses of the Western powers over the issue, which helped pave the way for Japan to annex the Ryukyus from early in the process, and take a stronger stance toward China in the aftermath of annexation.

This latter point is a crucial one, as the annexation of the archipelago was, along with the incorporation of Hokkaido, one of the first expansionist expressions of the newly Japanese nation-state of the Meiji era. Placed in a politically subordinate position and constantly fearing Western intrusion, Japan understood the importance of granting concessions to the Western powers in return for their tacit approval of its encroachment on the Ryukyus. This cooperation was possible because, in the 1870s, Japan and the powers had mutual interests in the Ryukyus, namely Japan’s need of the powers’ tacit approval and the latters’ willingness to preserve their privileges, and they were able to satisfy their different interests through an informal exchange. On the other hand, the Meiji leaders felt emboldened to strike an uncompromising stance toward their Asian neighbors which, from that point on, would rapidly intensify. In fact, it was at the very moment that Japan annexed the Ryukyus that the Qing began to question its traditional policy of non-interference toward Korea. Indeed, the annexation of the Ryukyus can be seen as the first expression of the diplomatic challenges that Meiji Japan would face in the future. Looking back, the annexation provides an excellent lens through which to view the Meiji government’s early diplomacy toward East Asia and the West.

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Marco Tinello is an assistant professor of East Asian and Japanese history in the Faculty of Cross-Cultural and Japanese Studies at Kanagawa University.

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Beillevaire, Patrick, “Furansu seifu no tai-Ryūkyū koku seisaku,” in Furansu ni okeru Ryūkyū kankei shiryō no hakkutsu to sono kisoteki kenkyū, Heisei 9 nendo~Heisei 11 nendo, Kagakukenkyūhi hojokinn kiban kenkyū (A) (2) Kenkyū hōkokusho, 2000.

Caroli, Rosa, Il Mito dell’Omogeneità Giapponese: Storia di Okinawa, Milano, Franco Angeli, 1999.

Duus, Peter, The Abacus and the Sword: The Japanese Penetration of Korea, 1895-1910, University of California Press, 1998.

Eskildsen, Robert, Transforming Empire in Japan and East Asia: the Taiwan Expedition and the birth of Japanese Imperialism, Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.

Gabe Masao, Meiji kokka to Okinawa, Tokyo, San’ichi shobō, 1979.

Hammersmith, Jack L., Spoilsmen in a “flowery fairyland”: the development of the US Legation in Japan, 1859-1906, Kent, Ohio, Kent State University Press, 1998.

Kabayama Aisuke, Chichi, Kabayama Sukenori, Tokyo, Denki sōsho 44, Ōzorasha, 1988, 186.

Kamiya Nobuyuki, Bakuhansei kokka no Ryūkyū shihai, Azekura shobō, 1990.

Mayo, Marlene J., “A Catechism of Western diplomacy: the Japanese and Hamilton Fish, 1872,” The Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 26 No 3 May 1967.

McWilliams, Wayne C., “East Meets East: the Soejima Mission to China, 1873,” Monumenta Nipponica, 30, 1975, 237-275.

Miller, Hunter (Ed.), Treaties and Other International Acts of the United States of America, Vol. 6, Publications of the Department of State no. 1719, United States Government Printing Office Washington, 1942, 755

Mizuno Norihito, “Early Meiji Policies Towards the Ryukyus and the Taiwanese Aboriginal Territories,” Modern Asian Studies 43, 2009, 683–739.

Mori Toshihiko, “Soejima Taneomi no tai-Shin gaikō, Hōgaku zasshi, 41-4, 1995, 485-519.

Namihira Tsuneo, Kindai Higashi Ajia no naka no Ryūkyū heigō: Chūka sekai chitsujo kara shokuminchi Teikoku Nihon he, Tokyo, Iwanami shoten, 2014.

Nishizato Kikō, Shin-matsu Chū-Ryū-Nichi kankei-shi no kenkyū, Kyoto, Kyoto daigaku shuppankai, 2005.

Okabe Toshikazu, “Bei-Futsu-Ran sankakoku jōyaku to ‘Ryūkyū shobun,’” Higashi Ajia Kindaishi, 23, 2019.

Okamoto Takashi, Chūgoku no tanjō: Higashi Ajia no kindai gaikō to kokka keisei, Nagoya daigaku shuppankai, 2017.

Ozawa Yōsuke, “Gaimushō kankatsu-ki ni okeru tai Ryūkyūhan seisaku,” Hōsei shigaku, vol. 87, Hōsei daigaku shi gakkai (ed.), 2017.

Smits, Gregory, “The Ryūkyū shobun in East Asian and world history,” Josef Kreiner, ed., Ryukyu in World History. Bonn, Bier’sche Verlagsanstalt, 2001.

Smits, Gregory, “New Cultures, New Identities: Becoming Okinawan and Japanese in Nineteenth-Century Ryukyu,” in James Ketelaar, Yasunori Kojima, Peter Nosco (eds.) Values, Identity, and Equality in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century Japan, Brill, 2015, 159-178.

Smits, Gregory, “Rethinking Earlier Ryukyuan History”, The Asia-pacific Journal: Japan Focus, Vol. 17, Issue 7, April 2019.

Smits, Gregory, Maritime Ryukyu, 1050-1650, University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 2018, 251-252.

Tinello, Marco, “A New Interpretation of the Bakufu’s Refusal to Open the Ryukyus to Commodore Perry,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, Japan Focus, Vol. 16, Issue 17, No. 3, 2018.

Tinello, Marco, Sekai-shi kara mita ‘Ryukyu shobun’, Ginowan, Yōju shorin, 2017.

Tinello, Marco, “Senhappyakurokuju nendai ni okeru Tokugawa bakufu ni yoru Ryūkyū no ichiduke: bakufu ga Igirisu seifu ni teishutsu shita ‘hensho’ to hokokusho wo chūshin ni,” Tōyō-shi kenkyū 78, no.3 (2019), 72-103.

Uehara Kenzen, Kurobune raikō to Ryūkyū ōkoku, Nagoya daigaku shuppankai, 2020.

Umeki Tetsuto, Shin Ryūkyū koku no rekishi, Tokyo, Hosei daigaku shuppankyoku, 2013.

Yamamoto Takahiro, Balance of favour: the emergence of territorial boundaries around Japan, 1861-1875, PhD Thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), 2015.

Yamashita Shigekazu, Ryūkyū-Okinawa shi kenkyū josetsu, Ochanomizu shobō, 1999.

Yokoyama Yoshinori, “Nihon no kaikoku to Ryūkyū,” Kokka to taigai kankei: atarashii kinsei-shi 2, Shin jinbutsu ōraisha, 1996.

Watanabe Miki, “Inpei seisaku no tenkai to Ryū-Shin-Nichi kankei,” Ryūdai shigaku, vol. 20, 2018.

Notes

This paper is a fully updated version of Marco Tinello, Sekai-shi kara mita “Ryūkyū shobun”, Yōju shorin, 2017. I deeply thank Professor Gregory Smits for his invaluable comments and suggestions that allowed me to greatly improve the quality of the manuscript.

Robert Eskildsen, Transforming Empire in Japan and East Asia: the Taiwan Expedition and the birth of Japanese Imperialism, Palgrave Macmillan, 2019. Yamamoto Takahiro, Balance of favour: the emergence of territorial boundaries around Japan, 1861-1875, PhD Thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), 2015.

Considering that, when annexing the Ryukyus, the Meiji government’s chief priority was eliminating the archipelago’s traditional subordination to both China (from the 14th century) and Japan (from the 17th century), earlier studies have understandably viewed the annexation as an event in which the Ryukyus, Japan, and China were the main actors. See, for example, Kinjō Seitoku, Ryūkyū shobun ron, Okinawa taimususha, 1978; Araki Moriaki, Shin Okinawa shiron, Okinawa taimususha, 1980; Gabe Masao, Meiji kokka to Okinawa, San’ichi shobō, 1979; Rosa Caroli, Il Mito dell’Omogeneità Giapponese: Storia di Okinawa, Milano, Franco Angeli, 1999; Nishizato Kikō, Shin-matsu Chū-Ryū-Nichi kankei-shi no kenkyū, Kyoto, Kyoto daigaku shuppankai, 2005; Umeki Tetsuto, Shin Ryūkyū koku no rekishi, Tokyo, Hōsei daigaku shuppankyoku, 2013; Namihira Tsuneo, Kindai Higashi Ajia no naka no Ryūkyū heigō: Chūka sekai chitsujo kara shokuminchi Teikoku Nihon he, Tokyo, Iwanami shoten, 2014; Mizuno Norihito, “Early Meiji Policies Towards the Ryukyus and the Taiwanese Aboriginal Territories,” Modern Asian Studies 43, 2009, 683–739.

Gregory Smits, “The Ryūkyū Shobun in East Asian and World History,” Josef Kreiner, ed., Ryukyu in WorldHistory, Bonn, Bier’sche Verlagsanstalt, 2001.

On this point see, Ozawa Yōsuke, “Gaimushō kankatsu-ki ni okeru tai Ryūkyūhan seisaku,” Hōsei shigaku, vol. 87, Hōsei daigaku shi gakkai (ed.), 2017.

Recently, Okabe Toshikazu has argued that, by promising to take responsibility for the Ryukyuan treaties, the Meiji government was able to obtain the Western powers’ support; in so doing, the treaties became a useful political tool that the Meiji leaders used to strengthen their claims during their negotiations with China (Okabe Toshikazu, “Bei-Futsu-Ran sankakoku jōyaku to ‘Ryūkyū shobun,’” Higashi Ajia Kindaishi, 23, 2019). Okabe, however, bases his analysis entirely on Japanese sources and does not discuss the relationship between the powers and Japan during the 1870s, which is the focus of the present article.

For a detailed study of the diplomatic capability of the Japanese leadership during the early Meiji era, see Marlene J. Mayo, “A Catechism of Western diplomacy: the Japanese and Hamilton Fish, 1872,” The Journal of Asian Studies, Vol. 26 No 3 May 1967, 389-410.

The status of the Ryukyus during the early modern era has been the subject of academic discussion for decades. A commonly – but not universally – accepted definition of the archipelago among Japanese historians is a “foreign country within the Tokugawa baku-han system” (see, for example, Kamiya Nobuyuki, 1990). Smits has recently argued that, as a result of the unconditional surrender of the territory to Japan in 1609, all the Ryukyu islands became Shimazu territory (Gregory Smits, “Rethinking Earlier Ryukyuan History”, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, Vol. 17, Issue 7, April 2019). To add another element to the debate, in the bakumatsu era, even when it began to assert its control over the islands, the bakufu always referred to the Ryukyus, in both internal and foreign communications, as a subordinate but foreign territory (Marco Tinello, “A New Interpretation of the Bakufu’s Refusal to Open the Ryukyus to Commodore Perry,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, Japan Focus, Vol. 16, Issue 17, No. 3, 2018).

“Tributary” in the context of premodern Chinese foreign relations did not ordinarily mean political subordination. Although the topic is complex, “tributary” relations were mainly economic in nature, albeit with ritual recognition of Chinese cultural superiority required as a prerequisite for de facto trade.

10 Gregory Smits, Maritime Ryukyu, 1050-1650, University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 2018, 251-252.

11 On the relationship between the Ryukyus’ posture as an independent country and Ryukyuan diplomacy, see Watanabe Miki, “Inpei seisaku no tenkai to Ryū-Shin-Nichi kankei,” Ryūdai shigaku, vol. 20, 2018, 63-64.

12 Before signing the Ryukyus-US Compact, on July 18, 1854, Commodore M. C. Perry wrote to the Secretary of the Navy that “Lew-Chew, it appears, is in a measure an independent sovereignty, holding only slight allegiance either to Japan or China” (Message of the President of the United States, transmitting a report of the Secretary of the Navy, in compliance with a resolution of the Senate of December 6, 1854, calling for correspondence, &c., relative to the naval expedition to Japan, by the United States Navy Department, The Library of Congress, 1855, 168). I deeply thank Takeishi Kazumi, proprietor of Yōju shorin, for sending me this document.

13 BGKM, vol. 15, Tokyo Daigaku Shiryō Henshanjo (ed.), Tokyo daigaku shuppankai, 1972, 599-600.

14 See, for example, Hunter Miller (Ed.), Treaties and Other International Acts of the United States of America, Vol. 6, Publications of the Department of State no. 1719, United States Government Printing Office Washington, 1942, 755.

15 Marco Tinello, “Senhappyakurokuju nendai ni okeru Tokugawa bakufu ni yoru Ryūkyū no ichiduke: bakufu ga Igirisu seifu ni teishutsu shita ‘hensho’ to hokokusho wo chūshin ni,” Tōyō-shi kenkyū, 78, no.3 (2019), 96.

16 Given a lack of documentary evidence, I have not covered the Dutch government’s attitude toward Japan’s annexation of the Ryukyus. The Dutch minister in Edo, Jhr. F. P. van der Hoeven, left Tokyo on October 1, 1872, immediately prior to the period (late 1872) examined in this article. When in 1878 the Ryukyuan envoys asked their Western treaty partners (the US, France, and Holland) for support, the Dutch government was then represented by the British minister in Tokyo, Harry Parkes. Since the Dutch perspective on the Ryukyuan question is very significant, I look forward to forthcoming publications that clarify this aspect of the annexation.

17 Peter Duus, The Abacus and the Sword: The Japanese Penetration of Korea, 1895-1910, University of California Press, 1998, 1-28.

18 Meiji bunka shiryō sōsho, vol. 4, gaikō hen, Meiji Bunka Shiryō Sōsho Kankōkai, Kazama shobō, 1959-1963, 8

19 Ibid., 9.

20 Ryūkyū shozoku mondai kankei shiryō, Yokoyama Manabu seinin henshū, Honkoku shoseki, 1980, dai 2 shū, dai 6, jō-chū, 7-9.

21 Gregory Smits, 2001, 281 (cited in note 4).

22 This point is investigated in detail in Namihira, 2014, 142 (cited in note 3). 

23 Kabayama Aisuke, Chichi, Kabayama Sukenori, Denki sōsho 44, Ōzorasha, 1988, 186.

24 Soejima Taneomi’s foreign diplomacy is often described as “national rights diplomacy” as, during his short tenure (1871–73), he sought to protect and expand Meiji Japan’s national rights wherever he saw the opportunity. He also established close relations with a handful of American diplomats who were sympathetic toward his foreign policy stance. See, Eskildsen, 2019, 75-76 (cited in note 2); Mori Toshihiko, “Soejima Taneomi no tai-Shin gaikō,” Hōgaku zasshi, 41-4, 1995, 485-519.

25 FRUS, 1872, No. 244 (De Long to Fish, November 6, 1872), 553-555.

26 Charles E. De Long is often characterized both as someone who lacked experience in diplomatic affairs and was vastly ambitious. For a detailed study on De Long in Japan see, Jack L. Hammersmith, Spoilsmen in a “flowery fairyland”: the development of the US Legation in Japan, 1859-1906, Kent, Ohio: Kent State University Press, 1998, 80-105

27 In their 1872 proposals, Inoue Kaoru and Soejima Taneomi suggested bringing the Ryukyus under Japan’s exclusive subordination but did not explicitly mention the “annexation” of the Ryukyus to Japan.

28 Gabe Masao, 1979, 40. Also, it is important to observe that General C. Le Gendre would begin his collaboration with Soejima immediately after De Long’s acknowledgement of the Ryukyus’ incorporation. For a thorough investigation of the cooperation between Soejima and Le Gendre, see Eskildsen, 2019.

29 FRUS, 1872, No. 244 (De Long to Fish, November 6, 1872), 553-555.

30 For a detailed comparison of the Treaty of Kanagawa between the US and Japan (1854) and the Ryukyuan-American Treaty (1854), see Uehara Kenzen, Kurobune raikō to Ryūkyū ōkoku, Nagoya daigaku shuppankai, 2020.

31 FRUS, 1872, No. 244 (De Long to Fish, November 6, 1872), 553-555.

32 For a detailed study of US relations with East Asia and Japan under Hamilton Fish, see Marlene J. Mayo (cited in note 7).

33 FRUS, 1872, No. 247 (Fish to De Long, December 18, 1872), 564.

34 On this question, earlier studies argued that “Perhaps the correspondence of 1872 was overlooked.” (See, Treaties and Other International Acts of the United States of America, Vol. 6, 1942, 784, cited in note 14). Although my research in this subject is still at an early stage, it is worth noting that according to Henry Wheaton (in his, Elements of international law, Boston: Little, Brown, and company, 1866, Part III, Chap. II, section 275), treaties have an expiration clause “in case either of the contracting parties loses its existence as an independent State.” Thus, following international law, a different arrangement might have developed from the one proposed by De Long. At the same time, however, we cannot dismiss Gregory Smits’ view (cited in note 8) that the Ryukyus had lost their independence as early as 1609.

35 For a thorough study of the French government’s relations with the Ryukyus from the early-modern period to the modern era, see Patrick Beillevaire, “Furansu seifu no tai-Ryūkyū koku seisaku,” in Furansu ni okeru Ryūkyū kankei shiryō no hakkutsu tosono kisoteki kenkyū, Heisei 9 nendo ~ Heisei 11 nendo, Kagakukenkyūhi hojokinn kiban kenkyū (A) (2) Kenkyū hōkokusho, 2000.

36 Correspondance Politique (hereafter CP), Japon, vol. 21 (Turenne to Remusat, October 16,1872), 466-469

37 Ibid., (Turenne to Remusat, October 29, 1872), 479-480.

38 For an accurate account of the decision by France and Holland not to ratify their treaties signed with the Ryukyus see, Yokoyama Yoshinori, “Nihon no kaikoku to Ryūkyū,” Kokka to taigai kankei: atarashii kinsei-shi 2, Shin jinbutsu ōraisha, 1996.

39 FRUS, 1872, No. 244 (De Long to Fish, November 6, 1872), 553-554.

40 Ryūkyū shozoku mondai kankei shiryō, dai 2 shū, dai 1 dai 2, 1258.

41 On this observation, see Namihira, 2014, 309-310 (cited in note 3).

42 Okabe, 2019,19-20 (cited in note 6).

43 Ryūkyū shozoku mondai kankei shiryō, dai 2 shū, dai 6, jō-chū, 1259-60.

44 Ibid., dai 2 shū, dai 6, jō-chū, 1261.

45 Namihira, 2014, 227-228. (cited in note 3). On Soejima’s 1873 mission to China, see Wayne C. McWilliams, “East Meets East: the Soejima Mission to China, 1873,” Monumenta Nipponica, 30, 1975, 237-275.

46 FO 46/156, Japan Correspondence (Watson to Hammond, October 22, 1872), 50-57.

47 On November 16, 1872, the Japan Weekly Mail published an English translation of the Imperial Decree addressed to Shō Tai (published in Daijōkan Nisshi on October 16), which stated that “Ryukyu is now our southern border … We will confer on you a signal honor by raising you to be the king of the Ryukyu domain and appointing you a noble.” On 26 November, sending his government a copy of this article, Turenne commented that the annexation of the Ryukyus could be considered “with good reason” by the Japanese to be “a fait accompli.” CP, Japon, vol. 21 (Turenne to Remusat, November 26, 1872), 492-493. From American, French, and British sources, it seems that as early as October 1872 the Meiji government was already planning to annex the Ryukyus; however, this plan had been made in private and was known only to the Western diplomats in Tokyo. We can surmise that the reason for the lack of an official announcement was concern over managing objections by the Ryukyuan and Qing officials.

48 For a detailed study of the Taiwan Expedition, including the powers’ stance on the matter, see Eskildsen, 2019 (cited in note 2).

49 FRUS, 1875, No. 158 (Avery to Fish, May 30, 1875), 331-332.

50 Treaties and Other International Acts of the United States of America, Vol. 6, 1942, 784-785 (cited in note 14).

51 Ryūkyū shozoku mondai kankei shiryō, dai 2 shū, dai 1 dai 2, 1262-64.

52 With regard to Japan’s annexation of the Bonin Islands in 1875-76, Yamamoto Takahiro has pointed out that “The United States and Britain, in turn, condoned Japanese rule while trying to preserve their privileges of extraterritoriality,” Yamamoto, 2015, 190 (cited in note 2).

53 On this point see, Okabe Toshikazu, 2019, 20 (cited in note 6).

54 Ryūkyū shozoku mondai kankei shiryō, dai 2 shū, dai 1 dai 2, 1265-66.

55 The British stance on the Ryukyuan question requires a thorough study, which I hope to undertake in a separate work.

56 Diplomatic Despatches (N.A.M. 133), Japan, Vol. 38, No. 844 (Bingham to Evarts, September 2, 1878), 28-33.

57 By contrast, between 1875 and 1876, the Ryukyuan authorities repeatedly appealed to the Meiji government by invoking Confucian notions of dual obligation to justify the maintenance of their relations with China. The annexation turned out to be a long process, mainly as a result of the Ryukyuan authorities’ resistance and, from late 1878, the strong protests made by the Qing. It is important to observe, however, that resistance to annexation was restricted almost exclusively to the Ryukyuan authorities and never involved the Ryukyuan people as a whole. See Gregory Smits, “New Cultures, New Identities: Becoming Okinawan and Japanese in Nineteenth-Century Ryukyu,” in James Ketelaar, Yasunori Kojima, Peter Nosco (eds.) Values, Identity, and Equality in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century Japan, Brill, 2015, 159-178.

58 Diplomatic Despatches (N.A.M. 133), Japan, Vol. 38, No. 844, (Bingham to Evarts, September 2, 1878), 24-28.

59 Jack L. Hammersmith, 1998, 108 (cited in note 26).

60 Diplomatic Instructions, 1801-1906, Japan, N. A. M 77, Roll 105 vol. 2 (2), 133 (131), 1878, No. 380, (F. W. Seward to Bingham, October 9, 1878), 455-458.

61 CP, Japon, Vol. 26 (Geoffrey to Waddington, November 18, 1878), 362-384; 392-402. In his long report, Geoffrey also mentioned that although the Ryukyus had been under the dual subordination of China and Japan, they had maintained a level of independence, signed treaties with foreign states and governed their people freely. He also referred to the 1872 Japanese Imperial Decree that declared the annexation of the islands as a “Han.” Geoffrey added that, around that time, the Japanese government had promised the US, Holland, and France that it would take over and uphold all the obligations defined in the Ryukyuan treaties. In this way, it seems that De Long’s and Soejima’s arrangement would also be extended to the other Ryukyu treaty partners. As we will see below, however, in 1879 Inoue Kowashi and the Meiji government observed that Japan had never mentioned the treaties in their negotiations with France and Holland.

62 Ibid., Geoffrey was fully aware that France had not ratified the treaty; in his report, he surmised that if France intervened in favor of the Qing, Japan might respond by saying that the Ryukyuan–French Treaty had never been ratified. However, at that time, the Meiji government did not realize that the agreement had not received the French government’s formal sanction.

63 Ryūkyū shobun, ka (last volume), Matsuda Michiyuki (ed.), 132-138.

64 The 1871 Sino-Japanese Treaty stipulated, among other things, that “in all that regards the territorial possession of either country the two Governments shall treat each other with proper courtesy, without the slightest infringement or encroachment on either side.” For an excellent discussion of the Chinese perspective on the Ryukyuan issue, see Okamoto Takashi, Chūgoku no tanjō: Higashi Ajia no kindai gaikō to kokka keisei, Nagoya daigaku shuppankai, 2017. Despite the Chinese protests, at first the Meiji leaders refused to formally negotiate over the Ryukyus and they did not submit the first memorandum supporting their claims to the Qing until July 16, 1879.

65 On Inoue Kowashi’s constitutional documents, see Yamashita Shigekazu, Ryūkyū-Okinawa shi kenkyū josetsu, Ochanomizu shobō, 1999.AW

66 For a detailed analysis of Inoue’s memorandum, see Namihira, 2014, 307-312 (cited in note 3). Here, I focus on Inoue’s discussion of the Ryukyuan treaties.

67 Inoue Kowashi den, shiryō hen dai ichi, 174-177.

68 On this matter, I have argued elsewhere that former US president Ulysses Grant played an important role in the Ryukyuan affair in the summer of 1879. At precisely the time when a number of Qing officials thought it was absolutely necessary to include the Western powers in the Ryukyuan question and Inoue Kowashi was concerned that the Ryukyuan affair might involve the powers, Grant arrived in Japan and, after accepting a Chinese request to mediate in the Ryukyuan controversy between China and Japan, he suggested among other things that the two East Asian nations not allow any of the Western powers to enter the negotiations. China and Japan followed his advice, and the question did not blow up into an international issue as Inoue had feared. Marco Tinello, 2017, cited in note 1.

69 FO 46/247, Japan Correspondence, N. 140 (Parkes to Salisbury, August 1, 1879), 75-134.

70 United States, Department of State, General Records of the Department of State (R.G. 59), Diplomatic Despatches, Japan (N.A.M. 133), No. 943, (Bingham to Evarts, August 29, 1879), 3-24.

71 FO 46/247, Japan Correspondence, N.163 (Parkes to Salisbury, September 18, 1879), 342-343.

72 For a detailed analysis of the Meiji government’s 1879 claims as they related to China, see Namihira, 2014, 292-298, 304-312 (cited in note 3).

73 DNGB, vol. 12, 191-200.

74 On the termination of the Ryukyuan-American Treaty, see Treaties and Other International Acts of the United States of America, Vol. 6, 1942, 786 (cited in note 14).

75 It is unknown whether the Meiji leaders referred to international law when they decided to uphold the Ryukyuan-American Treaty in 1872. We might surmise that since De Long’s inquiry (1872) had a favorable outcome for both the US and Japan, the leaders of both countries had not investigated the requirements of international law on the issue in detail. However, the fact that despite formal annexation in 1879 Japan continued to maintain Western privileges in the Ryukyus is indicative of Japan’s weak position in relation to the powers in the second half of the 19th century. For example, in reply to the Japanese government’s claim that “the annexation of Hawaii would tend to endanger certain rights of Japanese subjects,” on June 25, 1897, US Secretary of State, John Sherman, pointed out that “The principle of public law whereby the existing treaties of a State cease upon its incorporation into another State is well defined by Halleck…also Wheaton…To this end the termination of the existing treaties of Hawaii is recited as a condition precedent. The treaty of annexation does not abrogate those instruments, it is the fact that Hawaii’s ceasing to exist as an independent contractant that extinguishes those contracts.” DNGB, vol. 30, 997-999. (also, see John Basset Moore (ed.), A Digest of International Law as Embodied in Diplomatic Discussions, Treaties and Other International Agreements, Washington: Govt. Print. Off, 1906, 348-350).

76 As one example of how Western diplomats were being manipulated, on December 2, 1878, Geoffrey wrote to his colleague and friend, the French minister in Beijing, stating that the Ryukyuan people were “good and interesting” people, and that their claims were “just.” He added that the Japanese had boldly annexed Ryukyuan territory and persuaded the whole world that the Chinese had acknowledged it. See, Beillevaire, 2000 (cited in note 35).

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***

“A nation at peace and a region in harmony are thus essential prerequisites for attainment of national security in the true spirit. No national leaders of today can ignore these factors,” said Army chief Gen Bajwa, marking a significant iteration of Pakistan’s latest security policy.

“…, it is an almost universally acknowledged fact that the contemporary concept of national security is not only about protecting a country from internal and external threats but also providing conducive environment in which aspirations of human security, national progress and development could be realised.

“Surely, it is not solely a function of armed forces anymore…”

Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa said this in the keynote address he delivered, at the first-ever Islamabad Security Dialogue (ISD) on March 17-18. The Dialogue was inaugurated by Prime Minister Imran Khan. The ISD was organised by the National Security Division, together with five leading think-tanks of the country, the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies, Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Institute of Strategic Studies, Institute of Regional Studies and National Defence University’s Institute of Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis. The broad composition indicates the united political will of the Pakistani state.

Reuters from Islamabad thus reported the event, March 18, 2021:

“Pakistan’s army chief called on arch rivals India and Pakistan to “bury the past” and move towards cooperation, an overture towards New Delhi that follows an unexpected joint ceasefire announcement last month between the two countries’ militaries…. The militaries of both countries released a rare joint statement on February 25 announcing a ceasefire along the disputed border in Kashmir, having exchanged fire hundreds of times in recent months….

“The United States immediately welcomed the move, and encouraged the two to “keep building on this progress”.

PTI reported: White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki had said on Feb 25 that the Biden administration remains “closely engaged with a range of leaders and officials in the region, including those in Pakistan.”

“This is a positive step towards greater peace and stability in South Asia which is in our shared interest and we encourage both countries to keep building upon this progress,” she said.

At a separate news conference, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the administration had called on the parties to reduce tensions along the LoC by returning to the 2003 ceasefire agreement. “We have been very clear that we condemn the terrorists who seek to infiltrate across the Line of Control,” he said.

The USA sells peace as well as war as it suits from time to time. In the eyes of the merchants of death, peace is the time between two wars. And it indulges in trade war too, which calls for shifts in policy. For India and Pakistan, both dependent on USA, unfortunately this nudge from the super power was needed, fortunately this time for peace.

Notably those engaged in backchannel talks with India were also associated in the ISD. Further, on Kashmir, the General simply said : “It is time to bury the past and move forward. But for the resumption of the peace process or meaningful dialogue, our neighbour will have to create a conducive environment, particularly in Indian-Occupied Kashmir.”

Who has to take the initiative? “The burden was on India” said Bajwa. Nay, the onus is on Pakistan, said India. Notwithstanding this refrain, it shows the thaw on both sides.

*

Further, it was really not so “unexpected joint ceasefire,” and it is based on political economy, as this report by indiatoday.in, March 19, 2021, indicates the chain of recent events:

“Bajwa said that “stable” Indo-Pak relations is a “key” to unlock the untapped potential of South and Central Asia by ensuring connectivity between East and West Asia…he also said that the potential of the region has “forever remained hostage to disputes and issues between two nuclear neighbours”.

“Calling the Kashmir dispute the “heart of this problem”, General Bajwa said, “It is important to understand that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, the process of sub-continental rapprochement will always remain susceptible to derailment due to politically motivated bellicosity“…

“Our position is well known. India desires normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan in an environment free of terror, hostility and violence. The onus is on Pakistan for creating such an environment,” Anurag Srivastava, spokesperson at the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), said during his weekly briefing on February 4.

“This came in the wake of General Bajwa’s earlier offer of peace, February 2, while speaking at the graduation ceremony at the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).  He had said, “Pakistan and India must resolve the longstanding issue of Jammu and Kashmir in a dignified and peaceful manner as per the aspirations of people of Jammu and Kashmir.”

“India and Pakistan had announced on February 25 that they have agreed to strictly observe all agreements on ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and other sectors. The ceasefire continues to hold, which is a positive sign.

“India had last month said that it desires normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan in an environment free of terror, hostility and violence. India had said the onus is on Pakistan to create an environment free of terror and hostility.

“General Qamar Javed Bajwa stressed however that the burden was on India to create a “conducive environment”, and said Washington had a role to play in ending regional conflicts.

“Pakistan and India, both nuclear-armed countries, have fought three wars, and in 2019, tensions rose dramatically post the Pulwama terror attack and the Balakot aristrikes…”

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Dr. Tara Kartha, Former Director, India’s National Security Council Secretariat, explained and underlined the significance of the events.  See this extract from tribuneindia.com, Mar 20, 2021:

“These are stirring times in Islamabad, where the rich and the powerful gathered for the ISD….In Pakistan, the rich and the powerful are either politicians, businessmen or those in khaki, or even all three. And since it is they who run the country, what they say usually matters.

“The ISD was organised by the National Security Division, a body originally set up under Nawaz Sharif to serve as the secretariat of the Cabinet Committee on National Security which replaced the Defence Committee of the Cabinet. Later called the National Security Committee, it was notified as the ‘principal decision-making body on national security’ in a move quite unlike the advisory role such bodies have in most countries. That it included the service chiefs hardly needs to be said….”

“The idea is aimed at bringing think-tanks and policy-makers together, in a praiseworthy effort to benefit both. Bureaucracies the world over are not very different from each other, particularly in South Asia, where there is usually a solid brick wall between the two. The first move to break that wall is the first ever advisory portal, an integrated platform to exchange ideas with universities, think-tanks and the bureaucracies. The second was obviously to get the army chief to lay down the proposals…

“This (singular obsession with India) now seems to be changing, just a little. It started at the beginning of this year. In February, there was talk of Pakistan prioritising geo-economics over other issues. That was echoed by Foreign Minister Qureshi soon after Khan’s visit to Colombo where he rather surprisingly talked about Sri Lanka being part of CPEC. Now at the ISD, PM Khan is talking of comprehensive security astonishingly, saying that security is not just about defence. Unsurprisingly, he praised China’s model, as he does at every forum available…

Then he places national security within ‘South Asia’, as the least integrated of regions…

If that’s not astonishing enough, there is the offer of regional connectivity. That’s not just about China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), though that is offered up as an ‘inclusive, transparent’ project for global and regional participation, particularly Afghanistan. What follows is best quoted in full.

The General says, “Let me also emphasise that while CPEC remains central to our vision, only seeing Pakistan through the CPEC prism is also misleading. Our immensely vital geostrategic location and a transformed vision make us a country of immense and diverse potential which can very positively contribute to regional development and prosperity.”

In simple words, he’s offering up Pakistan as a node for regional connectivity… This means that Pakistan is ready for roads, railways and shipping to cross its territory into the rest of the world, including India. That’s turning South Asian politics on its head…

Delhi had better consider this connectivity push and its pros and cons rather than dither about Bajwa’s hostile antecedents. Here is an opportunity. Take it up. It might mean money, and a lot of it.

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It goes against the simplistic and inobjective notions spread in India that the Pakistan army decides everything.

Bajwa spoke of “politically motivated bellicosity“…And it reminds former Pakistan Gen Musharaff’s statement that the armed forces know better about, and suffer the vagaries of war.

In this context, it is instructive to recall words of wisdom:

“24. WAR IS A MERE CONTINUATION OF POLICY BY OTHER MEANS.

We see, therefore, that War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means…the political view is the object, War is the means, and the means must always include the object in our conception.”  (Carl von Clausewitz, (1780-1831), On War)

The text of Gen Bajwa’s speech, given below, gives a fuller picture and deeper insights of what is going on.

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Full text of Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa’s speech at the Islamabad Security Dialogue, March 17, 2021.

Worthy Guests, Diplomats, Panelists, Participants, Ladies & Gentlemen!

Assalam-o-Alaikum & Good Afternoon!

It is my profound privilege and pleasure to address this august gathering of some of the best Pakistani and global minds. “Together for ideas” is a very appropriate theme chosen by the organisers for this dialogue. I am certain that the policy practitioners and scholars present here or participating virtually, will not only discuss Pakistan’s security vision but also formulate ideas to guide us on how best to tackle Pakistan’s future security challenges.

I would like to appreciate the National Security Division for identifying the need for Pakistan to have its own security dialogue. I commend the NSD and its Advisory Board for putting together the first iteration of this Dialogue. I hope this trend of integrating intellectual input into policy-making continues to grow.

Ladies and gentlemen, it is an almost universally acknowledged fact that the contemporary concept of national security is not only about protecting a country from internal and external threats but also providing conducive environment in which aspirations of human security, national progress and development could be realised.

Surely, it is not solely a function of armed forces anymore.

National security in the age of globalisation, information and connectivity has now become an all-encompassing notion; wherein, besides various elements of national power, global and regional environment also play a profound role.

National security is thus multi-layered: outer layers being the exogenous factors of global and regional environment and inner layers being the endogenous factors of internal peace, stability and developmental orientation.

A nation at peace and a region in harmony are thus essential prerequisites for attainment of national security in the true spirit. No national leaders of today can ignore these factors. I also firmly believe that no single nation in isolation, can perceive and further its quest for security, as every single issue and security dilemma faced by today’s world is intimately linked with global and regional dynamics. Whether it be human security, extremism, human rights, environmental hazards, economic security or pandemics, responding in silos is no longer an option.

Ladies and gentlemen!

The world has seen ravages of World Wars and Cold War, wherein polarisation and neglect of virtues blighted human future and brought catastrophic consequences for humanity.

On the contrary, we have witnessed how multilateral rule-based platforms contributed towards good of mankind.

Today we face similar choices; whether to stay etched in the acrimony and toxicity of the past, continue promoting conflict and get into another vicious cycle of war, disease and destruction; or to move ahead, bring the dividends of our technological and scientific advancements to our people and usher in a new era of peace and prosperity.

We must not forget that the desire to achieve autarky was historically divisive and a stimulus for grabbing more, leading to “haves” and “have nots”. History has taught us that the way ahead has always been through an interconnected, interdependent and collective sense of security…

Today the leading drivers of change in the world are demography, economy and technology. However, one issue which remains central to this concept is economic security and cooperation.

Frayed relations between various power centres of the globe and boomeranging of competing alliances can bring nothing but another stint of cold war. It is naive to apply the failed solutions of yesteryears to the challenges of today and tomorrow.

It is important for the world that the leading global players must reach a stable equilibrium in their relations through convergences instead of divergence.

In this environment, developing countries like Pakistan, today face multi-dimensional challenges, which cannot be navigated single-handedly. A similar situation is confronted by other countries in our region as well, therefore, we all require a multilateral global and regional approach and cooperation to overcome these challenges.

Dear Participants!

You are well aware that South Asia is home to one quarter of world’s population. However, despite tremendous human and resource potential, the unsettled disputes are dragging this region back to the swamp of poverty and underdevelopment.

It is saddening to know that even today it is among the least integrated regions of the world in terms of trade, infrastructure, water and energy cooperation.

On top of it, despite being one of the most impoverished regions of the world, we end up spending a lot of money on our defence, which naturally comes at the expense of human development.

Pakistan has been one of the few countries, which despite the rising security challenges has resisted the temptation of involving itself in an arms race. Our defence expenditures have rather reduced instead of increasing. This is not an easy undertaking especially when you live in a hostile and unstable neighbourhood.

But, having said that, let me say profoundly that we are ready to improve our environment by resolving all our outstanding issues with our neighbours through dialogue in a dignified and peaceful manner.

However, it is important to state that, this choice is deliberate and based on rationality and not as a result of any pressure. It is our sincere desire to re-cast Pakistan’s image as a peace-loving nation and a useful member of international community.

Our leadership’s vision is Alhamdullilah transformational in this regard. We have learned from the past to evolve and are willing to move ahead towards a new future, however, all this is contingent upon reciprocity.

Ladies and gentlemen!

The world knows that we are geo-strategically placed, to be a bridge between civilisations and connecting conduit between the regional economies.

We are a nation of significance due to our large and enterprising demography, fertile soil and adequate logistical infrastructure. We intend to leverage our vital geostrategic location for ours own, regional and global benefit.

Our robust role in current quest for peace in Afghanistan is proof of our goodwill and understanding of our global and moral obligations.

Our close collaboration and crucial support for the peace process has led to the historic agreement between Taliban and US and paved the way for intra-Afghan dialogue.

We will continue to emphasise on a sustained and inclusive peace process for the betterment of people of Afghanistan and regional peace. Moreover, besides offering our all-out support to Afghanistan peace process, we have also undertaken unprecedented steps to enhance Afghanistan’s trade and connectivity by:

  • Re-energising Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement and also providing access to Afghanistan to export her goods to India
  • Improving economic and trade environment along Pak-Afghan border by establishing border markets and development of infrastructure
  • Being part of energy and trade corridors binding Central. South and West Asia through land routes and inviting Afghanistan to be part of CPEC.

Dear Participants!

Stable Indo-Pak relation is a key to unlock the untapped potential of South and Central Asia by ensuring connectivity between East and West Asia. This potential however, has forever remained hostage to disputes and issues between two nuclear neighbours.

Kashmir dispute is obviously at the head of this problem. It is important to understand that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of sub-continental rapprochement will always remain susceptible to derailment due to politically motivated bellicosity.

However, we feel that it is time to bury the past and move forward. But for resumption of peace process or meaningful dialogue, our neighbour will have to create conducive environment, particularly in Indian Occupied Kashmir.

Ladies and gentlemen,

today we are a nation with tremendous geo-economic potential. In order to carve a promising future for our people, it is important for us to embark upon a solid economic roadmap, backed up by infrastructural developments and regional integration. Our choices with respect to the same have been clear and explicit.

This geo-economic vision is centered around four core pillars:

  • One: Moving towards a lasting and enduring peace within and outside
  • Two: Non-interference of any kind in the internal affairs of our neighbouring and regional countries
  • Three: Boosting intra-regional trade and connectivity
  • Four: Bringing sustainable development and prosperity through establishment of investment and economic hubs within the region

Pakistan has been working towards all four aspects with unity of purpose and synchronisation within the various components of national security.

We had realised that unless our own house is in order, nothing good could be expected from outside. Now, after having overpowered the menace of terrorism and tide of extremism, we have begun to work towards sustainable development and improving economic conditions of under-developed areas.

Pakistan Army has contributed tremendously towards this national cause by rebuilding and mainstreaming some of the most neglected areas through massive development drives besides ensuring peace and security.

Our long campaign against the tide of terrorism and extremism manifests our resolve and national will. We have come a long way and yet we are a bit short of our final objective but we are determined to stay the course.

Dear participants!

CPEC has been at the heart of our economic transformation plan and we have left no quarter to declare its necessity for addressing our economic woes.

Our sincere efforts to make it inclusive, transparent and attractive, for all global and regional players, with the aim of bringing its benefits to everyone.

Let me also emphasise that while CPEC remains central to our vision, only seeing Pakistan through CPEC prism is also misleading.

Our immensely vital geostrategic location and a transformed vision make us a country of immense and diverse potential which can very positively contribute to regional development and prosperity.

This vision however remains incomplete without a stable and peaceful South Asia. Our efforts for reviving Saarc, therefore, are with the same purpose. Our efforts for peace in Afghanistan, responsible and mature behavior in crisis situation with India manifest our desire to change the narrative of geo-political contestation into geo-economic integration.

While we are doing our bid, a major contribution is to be made by the global players through their cooperation.

I am sure that an economically interconnected South Asia is much more suited to them instead of a war-torn, crisis-ridden and destabilised region.

We also see hope in the form of incoming US administration which can transform the traditional contestation into a gainful economic win-win for the world in general and the region, in particular, South Asia can be the starting point for regional cooperation.

I have firm belief that economic and sustainable human development can guide us into a future, full of peace and prosperity.

And finally, it is time that we in South Asia create synergy through connectivity, peaceful co-existence and resource sharing to fight hunger, illiteracy and disease instead of fighting each other.

I thank you.

Courtesy : Dawn.com, March 18, 2021.

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In conclusion, Dr. Tara Kartha’s words are worth repeating:

“Delhi had better consider this connectivity push and its pros and cons rather than dither about Bajwa’s hostile antecedents. Here is an opportunity. Take it up. It might mean money, and a lot of it.”

Hope jingoists in India are listening and will heed.

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Racism is not fundamentally about individual behaviour – although often that’s how people experience it. It has been built into the institutions of Australian capitalism from its origins in the invasion, dispossession and genocide against the First Nation’s peoples.

Even if, miraculously, every individual racist changed their views, the major forms of racist disadvantage that Aboriginal people experience – from appallingly low life expectancy to the worst housing, education, ill health, joblessness and access to government services – would continue.

Nor would the extra attention they receive from government – the murderous police, jails, courts and child removal departments – disappear.

Racism is central to capitalism because the system benefits from it.

It is a process of divide and rule. Establishing divisions within the working class is fundamental to ruling class attempts to keep control over a society in which they constitute only a tiny minority, making their profits from the labour of the majority.

Constructing an enemy is also important for prosecuting imperialist wars.

This also explains why the targets of Australian racism have shifted over the decades depending on the needs of the ruling class at the time.

When the White Australia policy was introduced in 1901, most Chinese workers suffered. Italians were targeted in late 19th century. Today, First Nations peoples, Muslims, Africans and refugees are the prime targets of anti-migrant racism.

Vilifying these groups to justify Australia’s involvement in occupation and war has resulted in anti-terror laws that have strengthened the state’s power to spy and intimidate.

If refugees can be imprisoned and brutalised, so too can poor people and workers.

Racism has a specific economic use for the ruling class.

In general, societies where racism is more pronounced experience lower wages and poorer working conditions.

Historical divisions between Black and white workers in the southern states of the United States have created a downward pressure on wages for all workers; it has contributed to the confidence of bosses to ruthlessly exploit both Black and white workers.

To this day, workers in the US south are the most poorly unionised and lowest paid in the country. Of the five US states that have no minimum wage laws, all are located in the south (Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and South Carolina).

This is not the product of the retrograde views of your average racist; it’s a legacy of slavery, segregation and the prevalence of racism that has weakened the workers’ movement and held back good working conditions.

Those on precarious visas toil in some of the most exploitative industries in the country.

I have witnessed many refugees, asylum seekers, backpackers and international students being paid below the minimum wage, subject to intimidation, sacked if they speak up or join a union and living under the constant threat of deportation.

Racism and national borders make this situation possible. It’s a windfall for the bosses and a disaster for all working class people, both the migrant workers and those struggling to defend hard-won gains.

It’s the structural elements that link racism and capitalism, and over which most people have absolutely no control. But that does not necessarily mean people will swallow anything that is spoon-fed to them.

In recent years, we have seen tens of thousands of people march in Invasion Day rallies and oppose Australia Day.

Educating white people to be nicer to brown people won’t address the very real material underpinnings of inequality: it does not build more houses, or give poor people jobs.

Organising workers to overcome racial divisions and stand together against their bosses and the government is what helps sideline racist ideas.

It is not an accident that the high points of anti-racist struggle in Australia have coincided with the upsurges in class struggle in which workers most clearly see that the bosses are their real enemies and, conversely, that racism only undermines that struggle.

After all, the working class is multi-racial and multi-ethnic – our strength is in our unity. This is how we overcome racism and the system that perpetuates it — a system in which money and power matter more than human lives.

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Lavanya Thavaraja is an organiser with the Migrant Workers’ Centre. This article is based on a talk she gave to a Socialist Alliance forum on February 6.

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***

Within the space of five years India has meticulously manipulated the Kashmir dispute in ways which few, if any, people foresaw.

Begrudgingly, I doff my cap to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his left-hand man, national security adviser Ajit Doval.

Within the space of five years, they have meticulously manipulated the Kashmir dispute in ways which few if any people foresaw. Now they have managed to negotiate a de-escalation along both fronts in Kashmir set alight by their brinkmanship.

India’s military standoff with China in the Ladakh region of Kashmir was never expected to last long, or even escalate into a shooting war. But nobody foresaw the sudden restoration last Thursday of a ceasefire agreement between Indian and Pakistani forces in Kashmir.

Starting with the so-called surgical strikes mounted against some of Pakistan’s forward bunkers along the Line of Control in 2016, Modi & Co Ltd has snatched the geopolitical initiative on Kashmir from Islamabad. I am convinced that their strategy was built upon the element of surprise.

Quite simply, Pakistan did not believe that India would cross its red lines because of the risk that it could spark an unwinnable war between the nuclear-armed nemeses.

Islamabad’s conclusion was justifiable: India’s military, while significantly bigger, is in no better a position to seize territory from Pakistan than it was when they first went to war in 1965.

And, of course, India has a far superior Chinese military to contend with.

This lulled Pakistan’s decision-makers into a false sense of security and they made one big mistake: they dismissed Modi’s pre-2014 election rhetoric as mere words.

So did most people outside of India.

Meanwhile, Modi and his Hindutva coterie were forging ahead with their plans to put India on the geopolitical map of the world like never before.

Correctly, they surmised that Pakistan’s response to surprise escalations would be defensive, not retaliatory.

Their calculations also took into account that Pakistan was beset with internal problems. It had only just defeated the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the northwestern tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. A decisive counterinsurgency operation in the restive Balochistan province was ongoing. And the civilian government and the military were engaged in a hugely divisive power struggle.

Plus the 2019 general elections in India were fast approaching and the Modi government’s approval ratings suggested that his Bharatiya Janata Party would struggle to gain a majority.

As soon as the opportunity presented itself, in the form of a suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian troops in Kashmir, Modi sent Indian warplanes to bomb a deactivated militant training camp located inside Pakistan.

In doing so, Modi achieved three objectives at the bargain basement price of the rickety MiG-21 Pakistan subsequently shot down, and cringe worthy videos of the captured India pilot praising his captors’ hospitality and the quality of tea they served him.

This little propaganda victory and the impression of air superiority lulled Pakistan into believing that the status quo in Kashmir would hold.

So the memes flowed and Pakistan soon switched focus back to the domestic political theatre.

Behind closed doors, however, Modi & Co had conveyed what India would do if Pakistan were to retaliate in kind: ballistic missiles were in play.

Within three years, India’s military posture had gone from reactionary to retaliatory to punitive to a warhead choice short of nuclear war.

Islamabad was still coming to terms with this when Modi sprung the gigantic shock by stripping Indian-administered Kashmir of its special constitutional status.

It is difficult to overstate the sheer audacity of this geopolitical gamble. Somehow, Modi and his closest aides managed to keep the plan a secret, and that, along with the overhanging threat of a ballistic missile response to any Pakistani military retaliation is what shaped Islamabad’s non-reaction.

Of course, Modi does not hold all the cards and, like all big-stack bullies, his tactics were only effective until a bigger shark, China, bared its teeth in Ladakh last summer.

Nonetheless, by simultaneously negotiating de-escalations along India’s disputed borders with China and Pakistan, Modi has built himself a nice offramp. For the time being, the arrangement suits all parties – except Kashmiris, who still have to contend with life in one of the world’s biggest open-air prisons.

China and the US have bigger fish to fry: each other.

Neither India nor Pakistan wants to become a frontline proxy for either great power.

India needs to focus on reviving its Covid-hit economy, as does Pakistan. Meanwhile, Islamabad awaits President Joe Biden’s decision on whether or not to pull out remaining US forces from Afghanistan by May, as agreed with the Taliban a year ago. Either way, the situation is complex and besieged by spoilers, including the TTP militants and Baloch rebels based in Afghanistan and their financiers, who notably, but not exclusively, include India.

The other elephant in the room is Iran. A political settlement in Afghanistan is practically unachievable without its support. It won’t be forthcoming unless Iran and the US agree on the terms of their re-engagement under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Until those unknowns become known, India and Pakistan will remain in a holding pattern, limited to the tentative normalisation of their bilateral relationship.

We may see some bilateral meetings on the sidelines of multilateral confabs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which has previously proven a useful forum for de-escalating tensions amongst members.

The Istanbul-based Heart of Asia track of the Afghan peace process is another platform where they will have to work together, despite being at cross purposes.

What comes after that?

It all depends on whether everybody in the neighbourhood can agree to shift the focus of their foreign policy from geopolitics to geo-economics, as recently declared by Pakistan.

I wouldn’t bet on it. It would require several minor miracles, not to mention an unprecedented geopolitical focus on connectivity in the midst of the pandemic.

The historical form book, meanwhile, suggests that India and Pakistan will clash again after a brief respite because Modi won’t budge on Kashmir – followed by another bout of detente.

However, stranger things have happened recently, among them the Abraham Accords and the invention of the Indo-Pacific strategic theatre.

And there are people like Modi at the table who are prepared to roll the dice.

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Tom Hussain is a journalist and analyst on Pakistan affairs and geopolitics in South Asia.

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Myanmar: Hidden Opposition Violence

March 18th, 2021 by Brian Berletic

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As is common with US-backed color revolutions around the globe, the Western media will attempt to cover up opposition violence for as long as possible until shifting the narrative toward a “reluctant civil war” in which opposition groups were “given no choice” but to take up arms.

Of course, in every example – from Libya and Syria to Yemen and Ukraine – violence was part of US-backed political subversion from the beginning.

This is no different in the Southeast Asian state of Myanmar where US-backed protesters are in the streets fighting with Myanmar’s police and military.

The “Activists Say” School of Journalism

The Western media is once again relying on the “activists say” method of reporting – absolving themselves from actual, objective and factual journalism and instead reporting on the conflict from the point of view of Western-backed opposition groups who have every motivation to depict themselves as victims and Myanmar’s new government as being brutal and repressive.

Reports are based almost entirely on information from local media funded by the US government through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) – outlets like The Irrawaddy, Mizzama, DVB (Democratic Voice of Burma), as well as “monitoring groups” like the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP).

A glance at any Western media report will include at least one of these sources.

Far from journalists or actual monitoring groups – these are components of the opposition who have every motivation to relay a narrative that serves to advance their own political agenda rather than  reporting the truth.

Similar “activists say” reporting was used by the West for years during the Syrian conflict with the Western media attempting to cover up opposition violence up to and including junctures where militants began operating tanks, artillery, and anti-tank missiles.

Crumbling Facade

As in Syria and Ukraine – where Western attempts to cover up violence and brutality among the opposition eventually gave way to the fact that both opposition groups were violent extremists – the truth about violence used by protesters in Myanmar is also beginning to emerge.

An article from the Bangkok Post titled, “KNU vows protection for Karen protesting Myanmar coup,” would admit that the Karen National Union – an armed group who has waged a bloody insurrection against Myanmar’s central government for decades – has vowed to “protect” anti-government protesters.

Images of heavily armed militants travelling in convoys allegedly on their way to protest sites were circulating in media across Asia – but these reports are still being deliberately omitted from Western media coverage.

Similar scenes had played out in Libya and Syria in 2011 – with the public’s confusion and genuine belief that the Libyan and Syrian governments were brutalizing “peaceful protesters” owed wholly to the Western media’s deliberately misleading coverage.

US-funded fronts providing misinformation to the Western media, and the Western media’s reports themselves are being used to pressure the United Nations and the governments of countries around the globe to  in turn put pressure on Myanmar and restore the US client regime of Aung San Suu Kyi to power.

Efforts by Myanmar’s new government to tell its side of the story have been hampered by US-based social media companies that have shut down official accounts of Myanmar’s military and government, as well as Myanmar state media services – leaving literally only opposition media’s accounts for the global public to read.

AFP in its article, “Facebook shuts down Myanmar army ‘True News’ page,” would claim:

A Facebook page run by the Myanmar junta’s “True News” information service was kicked off the platform Sunday after the tech giant accused it of inciting violence.

Revealing is Facebook’s inaction toward opposition groups, including the KNU, who are clearly armed and engaging in violence, and using the US-based social media giant to coordinate their activities within the country and to spread misinformation abroad.

Carefully Manipulated Misinformation 

Carefully edited videos show only the moment security forces respond, with no context provided as to why Myanmar’s police and military are using force. A similar tactic is being used by US-backed protesters in neighboring Thailand – however the government and alternative media in Thailand have done a slightly better job showing the other side of the story – mainly to the Thai public and is likely one of several factors behind the protests finally fading there.

In the days, weeks, and months to come – if Myanmar’s government cannot manage this crisis and it continues to grow – the Western media will find it increasingly difficult to ignore the armed, violent nature of the opposition – an opposition – supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi – the Western media itself had noted were violently storming Rohingya communities in past years, killing locals and burning homes and businesses to the ground.

It is very unlikely that these same excessively violent opposition groups suddenly adopted peaceful protesting tactics since then – and even pictures in the media show them wearing body armor, holding shields, and in some cases advancing on the position of police and soldiers with clubs and metal rods – an act that would provoke violence from security forces anywhere in the world.

Evidence has already emerged that the opposition depicted as “peaceful protesters” by the West are using violence and further evidence will eventually emerge of deadly violence that is prompting an escalation across the country.

With reports of militant groups already mobilizing amid the protests – armed clashes are inevitable – and likely are already taking place. But – just as in Libya and Syria – the Western media will only report one side of the conflict for as long as possible – and alternative media, including state media from non-Western nations appear to have no presence in Myanmar and are instead – unfortunately – merely repeating Western reports – reports these alternative news sources should know better than to trust.

US-backed regime change succeeding anywhere, emboldens it everywhere.

If more voices are not raised in regards to Myanmar, demanding both sides of the story be told – the nation risks falling victim to the same chaos that consumed nations targeted by the US elsewhere – with the possibility of the violence and instability crossing over the border into Thailand and beyond.

A destabilized Southeast Asia is the ultimate goal of Washington. A destabilized Southeast Asia denies China access to stable and prosperous political, economic, and military partners along its peripheries. If out of the chaos the US can create viable client regimes – the region can even be turned against China.

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Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine New Eastern Outlook”.  

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US government meddling around the globe isn’t aimed only at elections and regime change, but also at the legal processes within any given targeted nation – including referendums for things up to and including constitutional changes.

Thailand’s constitution will require 2 public referendums before being amended. This process is a matter of Thailand’s internal political affairs – but as in previous elections and regarding petitions to have the constitution rewritten in the first place – the US government and other Western special interests seek to influence and interfere in this strictly internal matter.

US government-funded fronts – through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) – need to be watched carefully as Thailand prepares for these referendums while raising public awareness of this interference is essential in giving the Thai government the leverage it will need to effectively deal with it.

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Brian Berletic, formally known under the pen name “Tony Cartalucci” is a geopolitical researcher, writer, and video producer (YouTube here and BitChute here) based in Bangkok, Thailand. He is a regular contributor to New Eastern Outlook and more recently, 21st Century Wire. You can support his work via Patreon here

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Pakistan may allow cotton import from India through land route as prospects of the gradual restoration of bilateral trade ties have brightened after the new ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control, according to a media report on Sunday.

Citing sources in the Ministry of Commerce, The Express Tribune reported that Adviser to the Prime Minister on Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood may take a decision on whether to import cotton and yarn from India next week.

They said that the issue of the cotton shortfall has already been brought to the notice of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who also holds the portfolio of the commerce minister. Once a principled decision is taken, a formal order will be presented before the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet, the sources told the daily.

The sources said that in-house deliberations have already begun but the final decision would be taken only after seeking the approval of the prime minister.

“I cannot say yes or no at this stage and would be in a better position to respond on Monday,” Commerce minister told the daily, responding to a question on whether Pakistan was considering allowing cotton import from India.

The trade ties between both the countries can help minimise cost of production in Pakistan and ensure sustained food supplies, the daily said.

India and Pakistan issued a joint statement on Thursday to strictly observe all agreements on ceasefire along the LoC and other sectors after the hotline discussions by their Director Generals of Military Operations.

The two countries signed a ceasefire agreement in 2003, but it has hardly been followed in letter and spirit over the past several years.

Relations between the two neighbours have nose-dived after a series of terror attacks in India perpetrated by terror groups based in Pakistan.

Bilateral ties deteriorated further after India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019. The move angered Pakistan, which downgraded diplomatic ties and expelled the Indian High Commissioner in Islamabad. Pakistan also snapped all air and land links with India and suspended trade and railway services.

The paper reported that against the annual estimated consumption of minimum 12 million bales, the Ministry of National Food Security and Research expects only 7.7 million bales production this year. However, cotton ginners have given the lowest production estimates of only 5.5 million bales for this year.

There is a minimum shortfall of six million bales and Pakistan has so far imported roughly 688,305 metric tonnes of cotton and yarn, costing USD 1.1 billion, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. There is still a gap of about 3.5 million bales that needs to be filled through imports.

Due to shortage of cotton and yarn, the users were compelled to import them from the United States, Brazil and Uzbekistan.

Imports from India would be far cheaper and would reach Pakistan within three to four days.

Importing yarn from other countries was not only expensive but would also take one to two months to reach Pakistan, the daily reported, quoting businessmen who deal in these commodities.

The delay in yarn import can pose risk to timely deliver the export orders, according to the paper.

However, the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) is exerting pressure on the Pakistan government not to allow cotton and yarn import from India.

An industry insider told the daily that few millers have already hoarded the cotton and were now charging higher rates and import would dampen their short-term earnings. In an appeal to Dawood, Aptma said that the import of yarn from India will directly impact cotton prices in Pakistan.

“The cotton sowing season is currently starting in Pakistan and the predicted drop in cotton price owing to import of yarn from India is approximately 10-15 per cent, discouraging farmers not to sow cotton,” according to the Aptma.

On Thursday, India said it desires normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan and is committed to resolving all issues bilaterally in a peaceful manner.

Prime Minister Khan on Saturday welcomed the ceasefire agreement with India and said Islamabad remains ready to move forward to resolve “all outstanding issues” through dialogue.

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The Evolution of the East Asian Eco-Developmental State

March 17th, 2021 by Stevan Harrell

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Abstract: The four major countries of East Asia—China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—form one of the most densely populated regions on earth, and through the course of the late 20th and early 21st centuries the region experienced some of its fastest economic growth, propelled by the policies of state-led developmentalism. As a result of this density and these policies, the four countries in turn became some of the most environmentally degraded. As each achieved middle-to-high income status, however, the populace and then the regime in each country realized that they could not sustain either rapid economic growth or popular legitimacy without addressing the environmental consequences of this fast growth. The four states thus changed their fundamental economic policies from pure developmentalism to what we call eco-developmentalism, an attempt to reconcile economic prosperity with environmental sustainability. Although success so far has been mixed, this turn to eco-developmentalism has allowed these states to claim world leadership in mitigating environmental degradation.1

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East Asia’s four largest countries2—the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of China on Taiwan, Japan, and the Republic of Korea— contain some of the most densely populated regions in the world and support 21% of the world’s population. Their estimated GDP constituted about 25% of the world’s total in 2019 (Statistics Times 2020)3, up from just 7% in 1960 (World Bank n.d.). The dramatic growth of East Asia’s economy in the past half-century is widely attributed to the economic success of the East Asian developmental states, which have staked their popular legitimacy on economic development and the material benefits that such growth brings to their citizens. At the same time, the developmental states’ extreme focus on material growth, particularly in the early decades of their high growth period, led to intense pollution and environmental catastrophes. Betting on the populace’s propensity to value increases in material living standards above all, state planners and corporate enterprises often externalized the air, water, soil, forests, and biodiversity of their territories as something that they could take care of later, perhaps much later, after they had achieved material prosperity.

The Three Gorges Dam, China

Later has come. China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have all reached upper-middle or even high-income status, and the pollution and environmental degradation have become so intense that they threaten the health and livelihood of residents in urban as well as rural areas. Citizens across the region no longer automatically prioritize additional material wealth over cleaner air, water, and soil, more buildings over more greenspace. Beginning in Japan in the 1960s, and spreading to Taiwan and Korea in the 1980s and China in the 1990s, citizens and civil society groups began to demand that their governments shift priorities away from growth-at-any-cost. The governments were slow to take notice at first, but by the 1970s in Japan, the 1990s in Korea and Taiwan, and after 1998 in China, East Asia’s states began to modify their emphasis on growth to incorporate environmental restoration and preservation into their policies and practices.

This pro-environmental shift in policy orientation represents a fundamental change in the nature of these states—from purely developmental to what we call eco-developmental—which recognize that greater environmental sustainability is critical for them to continue to grow economically while maintaining their domestic political legitimacy and assert international leadership. East Asia’s eco-developmental states have thus committed themselves to some sort of balance between economic development and environmental sustainability. Commitment of course does not equal results, and the actual record of the four East Asian states has been mixed. China in particular continues to increase its greenhouse gas emissions, and it attempts to mitigate this growth partly by building massive, environmentally destructive hydroelectric dams. It also exports environmental degradation by building power plants and hydroelectric dams in many Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan also export environmental degradation by continuing to import massive amounts of fossil fuels and wood. But all four states have made immense progress in curtailing air pollution and deforestation, and are actively addressing a multitude of other environmental problems. Part of the four states’ turn to eco-developmentalism is based on public pressure: under these regimes, civil society groups have continued and frequently expanded their environmental action, sometimes in active opposition to and sometimes in wary or even enthusiastic cooperation with state environmental agencies. In addition, the desire to be seen around the globe as environmentally responsible has also accelerated the turn toward eco-developmentalism.

The Importance of East Asia

Despite its prominence in the world economy and the relative wealth of the four countries included in our analysis, East Asia is resource poor. Japan and Taiwan both import 93% of their energy, and Korea 81%. Although China imports a much smaller percentage of its total primary energy—around 16%—the total volume of imports—270 million tons of coal (Reuters 2018) and 3.06 billion barrels of crude oil (MAREX 2018) in 2017—still makes China the world’s largest total net energy importer (IEA 2017: 60-69). East Asia’s fossil-fuel thirst thus contributes to environmental degradation and economic imbalance in oil- and gas-producing countries. All four countries also import a large percentage of the wood they use in construction and manufacturing, something that has allowed Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to restore the forest cover lost before and during the early days of the developmental state and allowed China to increase its forest cover from 8-11% in 1960 to over 21% today (Robbins and Harrell 2014). The result is that all the East Asian countries, along with other high-consuming countries like the United States, are causing deforestation abroadtheir construction and furniture industries have depleted the forests of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Solomon Islands, and particularly the Russian Far East, and have negatively impacted forests as far away as Gabon in west-central Africa (ibid.). Finally, food imports, especially China’s enormous appetite for soybeans from Brazil and Argentina (Rapoza 2015; Gu and Thukral 2018), have contributed to deforestation and land degradation in those areas as well. All four countries’ enthusiasm for seafood has put pressure on world marine fisheries resources, threatening biodiversity (Cao et al. 2017).

The East Asian region also accounted (in 2012) for 48% of the world’s manufacturing exports (TMI 2013), a major reason for its polluted cities and rivers and its high GHG emissions. In 2017-18 China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan accounted for 51%, 6%, 4%, and 1.5% of the world’s steel production (World Steel Association 2018, 2019), and all four ranked among the top 10 net exporters of steel, meaning that the toxic effects of coal burning on the air and of steel manufacture on the soil and water resources are concentrated locally. Similar effects result from automobile manufacture in Japan and Korea, which respectively account for 10% and 4% of autos produced worldwide (OICA n.d.)4, and 12.6% and 5.2% of automobile exports ranked by monetary value, ranking second and sixth in the world (Workman 2019). Other manufactures such as leather goods, textiles, machine parts, and electronics, all of which are major East Asian exports, also contribute to the region’s high rate of pollution from producing goods that will be consumed abroad.

Because of the intensity of their local environmental problems and their rapid economic growth in the postwar era, all the East Asian countries except Taiwan have become important participants in international forums dealing with the environment. China, Japan and Korea have participated at least since the initial United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in 1972 (UN 1972) and although China participated only in very limited ways during the Maoist era of planned economy and self-reliance from 1949 to 79, it began to take an active role starting from the 1992 Rio Meeting on Environment and Development, and has been an active participant since.

East Asian countries’ international connections work in two ways. In some cases, the desire for international recognition and integration has led these countries to adopt more progressive policies on the environment. In other cases, as their economic and political influence grows, East Asian countries have been able to influence international dialogues on the environment in their desired directions.

On the specific issue of climate change, China’s position has shifted from its initial insistence in the 1990s that economic development should take priority over environmental sustainability, to its more recent proactive involvement with international efforts to decrease GHG emissions. China’s commitment to reduce its own GHG emissions has also been a big force in driving down the global cost of wind and solar power generation, thus contributing to rising use of renewable energy across the globe. China has also become a leader in endangered species conservation, having cooperated with international conservation NGOs such as The Nature Conservancy (Litzinger 2004; Moseley and Mullin 2014) and the World Wide Fund for Nature (formerly World Wildlife Federation). In particular, China has gained international respect for its efforts toward the restoration of the iconic megafaunal species Ailuropoda melanoleuca (Giant Panda) which has become a national symbol as well as an object of environmental concern (Songster 2018).

In addition to the renewable energy sector, Japan and Korea (and to a lesser extent Taiwan) have focused on helping manufacturing firms adjust their products and processes to be more eco-friendly. Just as Japan was the first East Asian developmental state, it was also the first to adjust its developmental policies to incorporate environmental priorities into its co-development plans with manufacturers. For example, its investments in high-efficiency and electric vehicles paid off in a big way with the explosive popularity of the Toyota Prius. That model sold 300 vehicles during its launch year in 1997, and twenty years later, in 2017, more than 1.5 million Priuses were sold globally, and the total electric vehicle market worldwide had risen to almost 12 million vehicles, representing a reduction of 90 million tons of CO2 (Toyota 2018). China now has almost half the world’s electric cars on its roads (IEA 2020). In the construction industry, Japan’s policies to encourage waste reduction and recycling also offer important models that other countries follow; Japan now has a 100% recycling rate for industrial concrete (Tam 2009), and China has recently reduced the energy used in producing a ton of cement by about a third of what it was just a few years ago (Li et al. 2017: 1841).

Although they followed Japan’s lead by a few years, South Korea and Taiwan have also developed extensive green growth initiatives. South Korea’s 2009 National Strategy for Green Growth, with its associated Five-Year Plan, was perhaps the most comprehensive in the region, articulating clear goals for resource conservation and emissions reduction, as well as significant public and private investment in green technology (UN n.d.). Similarly, Taiwan has found that nurturing “green” industrial products and related services promotes economic growth and helps mitigate the economic effect of the decline of more polluting traditional industries (Chao 2017; Hu et al. 2017).

In Japan, Korea, and Taiwan interactions between state and civil society show important interplays with global environmental organizations and agendas. The governments of Japan and Korea were initially reluctant to sign international protocols on labeling of genetically modified organisms, but pressures from civil society groups that were linked to international environmental organizations led both countries to ratify the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety. While sometimes at odds with those advocating for CO2 reductions, anti-nuclear activists in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have advocated for renewable policies across the region.

East Asia as a Region in Environment and Environmental Politics

A skeptic might question the value of discussing the environmental policies of China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan together, since they have such different political systems and political cultures. We believe, however, that there are three strong reasons for writing about East Asia as a region. First, despite their obvious differences, East Asian countries have a number of historical, cultural, political, economic, and ecological similarities. Second, because of geographic proximity, the countries in the region are highly connected to one another and have been for centuries. Those interconnections tend to be obscured in country-specific analyses, underscoring the value of comparative scholarship covering the entire region. Finally, given the similarities among them and the close connections between them, the differences among the countries allow for valuable controlled comparison of their environments along with their environmental cultures and politics.

First and foremost, East Asia is a climatic and ecological region that shares air, water, and natural wildlife resources. The whole region is affected by the geologic fault lines that separate the Asian continent from North America, the Pacific Ocean, and the Philippines. The region shares a typhoon season, heightening its collective exposure to climate change-related risks. Dust from storms originating in the Loess Plateau of North China and the Inner Mongolian desert to the north is a major contributor to lowering air quality in Korea and Japan, and on certain days can even be detected in Seattle and San Francisco.

Similarly, East Asia’s economies are highly interconnected—China is the top trading partner for Japan, Korea, and Taiwan; and those three countries represent China’s #2, #3, and #4 trading partners after the United States. Just as European and American-owned manufacturing companies exported their air and water pollution to more permissive regulatory regimes in Japan, then to Korea and Taiwan, those countries are now exporting their pollution (and also many of their manufacturing jobs) to the low wage labor and looser regulatory regime of China. Much of Taiwanese-owned manufacturing, particularly in the electronics and apparel sectors, now takes place in China, along with substantial amounts of Japanese- and Korean-owned manufacturing. These activities of course not only boost incomes but affect China’s environment in negative ways, primarily through pollution (Hatch and Yamamura 1996; Reardon-Anderson 1997; Terao and Otsuka 2007; Wilkening 2004; Lora-Wainwright 2017). Air current flows mean that the pollution produced by these companies then drifts back to their home countries. Thus, unlike when the US and Europe outsourced their polluting industry to Japan, outsourcing manufacturing from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan to China does not entirely outsource the related pollution. Relatedly, when Japan, Korea and Taiwan invest in cleaner supply chains, greener technology, and transportation methods for their sub-contractors in China, it can contribute to the improvement in the quality of their own air, water, soil, and marine resources.

Historically, the eastern half of China, along with all of the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and Japan south of Hokkaido, has maintained an unusually high population density for multiple centuries, based on an agrarian order in which large numbers of peasant farmers grow grains intensively and pay rents and taxes to a landlord elite and to a centralized state staffed by members of this elite. Many of the specific problems of East Asia’s environment, including pollution, deforestation, and species loss—are related to the high population density recently compounded in its effects by rapid economic growth and urbanization.

East Asian countries also share both elite and popular cultural ideas about human-environment relations. The elite cultures of East Asia were dominated by a tradition that we can loosely call “Confucian,” which expresses diverse views that have been drawn on by political leaders to promote different agendas at different times. During China’s imperial era and Mao’s rule, the perspective that nature exists to serve humanity, and thus human action can prevail over or control nature, was promoted. This attitude was exemplified by the slogan “humans are destined to triumph over nature” (ren ding sheng tian), which can be found on a seaside monument to engineering on the east coast of Taiwan as well as in Maoist propaganda from 1960s and 1970s China (Shapiro 2001, Weller 2006).

More recently, pro-environmental leaders and activists in all four countries have touted another aspect of the Confucian tradition, one that promotes harmony or even unity between humans and nature. This idea is embodied in the slogan “unity of nature and people” (tian ren heyi), which has evolved in China into the modern cry to build an “ecological civilization” (shengtai wenming; Schmitt 2016). At the popular level, peasant proverbs and notions of village ecology and balance, such as the Japanese “village and mountain” (satoyama), stress the ecological integrity of the agrarian community (Takeuchi et al, 2002).

Interestingly, the interconnection between humans and nature, and the emperor’s historic responsibility for maintaining harmony in both, meant that in contrast to the Christian view of natural disasters as “acts of God” for which leaders were not responsible, natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes were seen as a sign that a leader had lost the Mandate of Heaven, and should perhaps be replaced. Thus, leaders across East Asia, even those not subject to democratic political pressures, have felt a responsibility to address environmental pollution and environmental disasters that threaten people’s “right to subsistence” (Tu 1989; Perry 2008).

Although they operate in a widely diverse set of political regimes, environmental advocates across the region rely on a remarkably similar set of strategies to influence policy and state action. Everywhere, more organizations use informal networking—either with or without state involvement—and public education as their primary advocacy strategies than use more direct forms of action such as public protest, lobbying, and litigation. Whom you know has always been more important than what you know in East Asian societies (and elsewhere), and this general cultural trend is reflected in the strategies utilized by environmental activists in the region.

Additionally, East Asian nations all lack a tradition of citizen participation in governance above the very local level. Thus, across the region mechanisms of citizen participation through electoral democracy or other formal means to influence national legislatures or bureaucracies are relatively new and tend to be underdeveloped, even among the democratic states. At the same time, all the countries have strong traditions of local governance. Also, perhaps significantly, the region has a long and diverse tradition of millenarian rebellions and other popular movements based on religious or other local solidarities (Perry and Harrell 1983). This paradox—high levels of civic engagement at the local level and low levels of activism at the national level—contributes to many of the specific forms of environmental action that we find throughout the region.

Finally, since World War II, the East Asian states have all shared the consensus of the developmental state, a governing body that derives its legitimacy from its ability to improve material consumption among its citizens. The developmental state’s initial bargain—asking citizens to accept environmental degradation in return for an increased standard of consumption—began to fray as economic prosperity increased and environmental conditions deteriorated, leading to the formation of the eco-developmental state as a new basis for policy and state legitimacy.

Variation within East Asia

Although they share many similarities, the differences among East Asian countries also make the region productive for academic inquiry. Precisely because a regional focus allows scholars to control for the many historical, ecological, economic, and cultural variables that the countries have in common, it becomes possible to engage in a detailed investigation into the ways that biophysical, sociocultural, administrative, legal, and geopolitical differences affect political behavior.

Perhaps most obviously, there are large biophysical differences among the countries. Because of China’s continental size and location, in contrast to peninsular Korea and insular Japan and Taiwan, there are large differences in resource self-sufficiency: Although China has the largest trade volume of any nation, because of its size it is much more self-sufficient and less dependent on trade than its smaller neighbors. It produces more of its own energy, forest resources, and even food than the other nations, and this difference affects the ability of each country to determine its environmental policies, particularly with respect to energy. We can see this especially with respect to nuclear power politics. Historically, Japan has relied heavily on nuclear power, getting as much as 30 percent of its electricity from that source before the 2011 Fukushima triple disaster (World Nuclear Association 2019), and since then has emphasized conservation. Korea generated 29% of its electricity from nuclear plants in 2017, but the Moon administration has announced plans to gradually eliminate nuclear generation as a power source (World Nuclear News 2017). Taiwan built three nuclear plants during the period of authoritarian rule, but popular protests have rendered a fourth plant infeasible since democratization, and the regime is now committed to a fast transition to heavy reliance on renewables, though the means for achieving that goal are only vaguely defined. Nuclear power remains a difficult political issue for all of the countries in the region, and its future has not yet been determined.

Socioculturally, the differences among the countries are quite complex. Many of them stem from the recent historical trajectories of governance models: Japan as a bureaucratic state with democratic elections throughout the postwar era, Korea and Taiwan with traditions of authoritarian governance and transition to democracy in the late 20th century, and China as an authoritarian state that nevertheless changed its economic model from state socialism to bureaucratic capitalism after 1980. These differences influence the nature of regulatory regimes, ministerial turf wars, and most importantly environmentalist opposition to and cooperation with state agencies in the four countries. The strength and character of democratic politics—its institutions, (e.g., elected legislature, free press, independent judiciary, and autonomous advocacy organizations), as well as its practices (e.g., electoral politics, public protests, community organizing, etc.)—are commonly thought to be critical for determining the environmental politics of a country. East Asia allows us to examine that assumption: although all four countries have very different experiences with democracy, they all initially followed a developmental state model and have made the transition to eco-developmental states.

Central-local government relations also differ. All four countries have strong central governments and a common practice of local policy experimentation prior to national policy implementation. However, the center-local political game is played very differently in the four places, and the capacity for local innovation varies as well. In China, localities can practice what we might call “guided autonomy” or a limited ability to experiment with policy implementation, so that policies such as the emissions trading markets or renewable energy subsides are often tried out locally before being implemented on a wider scale. In Japan local municipalities frequently experiment with waste, emissions, and building ordinances in an effort to increase the quality of their local environment. When those local models are effective, they can be adopted by multiple localities and eventually become national policy. Similarly, in Taiwan local governments are able to experiment with environmental policies, and their models of what to do as well as what not to do can be adopted nationally. In Japan and Taiwan, pioneering local governments often “guide” the national governments in the area of environmental policy. Although Korea has also seen a rise in the level of autonomy of its local governments in recent years, they remain highly constrained and have the least capacity to act as environmental policy innovators of the four countries in this study.

The role of law and lawyers also varies. In none of these countries has litigation traditionally played as great a role in society as in the Euro-American world, and its importance differs considerably from one country to another. Although environmental lawsuits have been permitted in China and Taiwan since the early aughts (Economy 2005; Li Jianliang 2010), they play a minor role in comparison to popular protest. In contrast, in both Japan and Korea lawyers and lawsuits have played vital roles in the environmental movement and in environmental policymaking. Victory in the early 1970s by pollution victims, in what came to be known as Japan’s Big lawsuits (Upham 2009), served as a critical turning point for the re-orientation of the developmental state away from growth-first towards a model that promoted more sustainable development. In Korea, lawyers’ associations were crucial players in the successful democratization movement (Lee et al. 1999; Ku 2002), and they continue to influence the evolution of Korea’s eco-developmental state (Cho 1999). These differences have implications as all four countries increase their participation in rights-based international forums and join various treaties and protocols.

Diachronic differences are also important to any comparative project, and especially here as we seek to highlight the transformation of developmental to eco-developmental states across the region. Countries that experienced this transition at later dates have done so in a different world context, particularly with regard to climate change and its effects. Japan, which was the first East Asian country to industrialize, and the first to face the negative environmental legacy of the developmental state, it was a pioneer in developing environmental policies, based primarily on regulation. But it was not until the end of the 20thcentury that the bureaucratic processes of regulation became transparent enough, and global environmental NGOs became powerful enough, to allow popular participation to influence policy significantly. Korea and Taiwan not only developed later, they democratized later. It is partly because of this timing that they have been much more closely connected to worldwide environmental movements. China has not democratized, but is eager to be seen as a player in international environmental politics. It has developed a system of top-down environmental regulation that also allows a small amount of popular environmental protest (Lora-Wainwright 2017), but activism has generally been restricted to the local level (Ho 2007, Teets 2014).

All of these differences mean that the basic dynamics and priorities in the environmental politics in the four countries vary widely. While there are remarkable similarities in the specific strategies utilized by citizens to advocate for pro-environmental policy change, the configuration of environmental politics in the four places is very different. In Japan, which experienced its environmental crisis first and has been ruled by the Liberal Democratic Party for nearly all of the post-war period, environmental organizations have been most effective when they have found allies among the ruling LDP members and inside the bureaucracy and local government. While advocacy organizations have connections to opposition parties, electoral politics has not been a defining element of the environmental movement. In contrast, in South Korea and Taiwan, the environmental movement became fully incorporated into those countries’ pro-democracy movements, creating much closer connections between environmental groups and progressive political parties (Ku 1996; Lee 2000; Lyons 2009; Grano 2015; Haddad 2015a). In further contrast, after a brief period of opening up in the 2000s, the CCP has spent much of the last decade tightening state control over environmental organizations and increasing party involvement in their activities. As a result, environmental groups in China tend to be small and local, and if they grow larger, they must find ways to work productively with the government or face shutdown.

In sum, East Asia is an excellent region in which to study the complex dynamics of environmental politics and particularly the way that developmental states can evolve into eco-developmental states. The four countries in the region whose experiences are highlighted here share many ecological, social, cultural, and political characteristics, but they vary in size, resource wealth, history, and especially political systems. This enables us to study in detail how these various factors can influence environmental politics and how national policy can become reshaped by environmental advocacy.

The Recent Trajectory of East Asia’s Environment

Because of their geographic proximity and cultural commonalities, and in spite of the differences in size and regime type, the East Asian countries have all experienced a similar trajectory in the politics and policies of the environment—and in the state of the environment itself—since World War II, but at different times and at different speeds, roughly corresponding to the timing of industrial growth. As a result, East Asian countries have followed a similar pattern where growth-first developmental states have evolved into eco-developmental states, modifying high-growth policies to include pro-environmental goals and promote more sustainable economic growth.

First in Japan, then in Korea and Taiwan, and most recently in China, all of the East Asian states supported rapid industrialization and high-speed economic growth that emphasized export-oriented manufacturing industries. As they became economically successful, they also caused environmental catastrophes such as mercury poisoning in Minamata, wintertime PM2.5 “air-pocalypses” in Chinese cities, toxic waste spills in South Korea, and the contamination of indigenous lands by nuclear waste facilities in Taiwan. Industrial pollution endangered the lives and livelihoods of their citizens, threatening the stability of their political regimes. All of the ruling political regimes struggled to incorporate these new environmental concerns into their governance strategies. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party managed to hold onto power by passing sweeping environmental regulations in 1970 during what came to be known as “the pollution Diet.” The military/nationalist regimes in South Korea and Taiwan failed to get ahead of popular dissatisfaction—the environmental movements merged with pro-democracy movements that resulted in political democratization in the late 1980s in both places. So far, the Chinese Communist Party has managed to keep ahead of the mounting political pressure with increasingly ambitious pro-environmental policies designed to reduce the pollution that can lead to political unrest. This process of transformation from a developmental state to an eco-developmental state was a gradual one that proceeded in fits and starts over many decades.

Beginning with the influential work of political scientist Chalmers Johnson on Japan (1982), which he (Johnson 1986, 1999) and others later extended to Taiwan (Gold 1986) and Korea (Haggard and Moon 1997; Suh and Kwon 2014), the idea of the developmental state has been central to analysis of East Asian economic growth. Developmental states in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have been characterized by private ownership of most of the means of production; policies set and enforced by a meritocratically selected bureaucracy; and active intervention, through both regulation (including import substitution followed by export promotion) and economic incentives, to guide economic growth in the directions it deems desirable. In service of their development goals, these states have promoted universal education, including both technical and nationalistic content; ensured relative income equality; and limited citizen political participation (Johnson 1986; Beeson 2004). China, having had a planned economy from the 1950s to the early 1980s, gradually “grew out of the plan” and came to resemble the other East Asian developmental states more closely, though state ownership still accounts for a larger share of its economy (Naughton 2015). Across all four countries, governments and businesses clung tenaciously to their pro-growth, anti-environment developmental models until their citizens, whose lives and livelihoods were threatened by industrial pollution, demanded change.

Japan’s postwar environmental movement was triggered both by general deterioration of urban air quality and by a series of industrial pollution incidents (Avenell 2012: 27), two of which have become iconic in the world history of environmentalism. In one incident, the Mitsui Company’s mines polluted the waters of the Jinzu River in Toyama Prefecture with cadmium, causing the outbreak of a local epidemic of itai-itai (Ouch!, Ouch!) disease, which led first to local citizen protests and eventually to litigation in which Mitsui was found culpable and forced both to clean up the river and to pay a large amount of compensation (Yoshida et al. 1999). In the other incident, the Chisso Corporation, a plastics manufacturer in Kyushu, released large amounts of methyl mercury into Minamata Bay, and local people ingesting fish became afflicted with what came to be known as Minamata disease, a potentially fatal degenerative disease of the nervous system. This led to local protests and eventually to the formation of a national environmental movement with important political allies (Almeida and Stearns 1998), one that began to include citizens’ groups agitating for nature preservation and food safety in addition to opposing industrial pollution and its negative health effects (Avenell 2012: 429).

In Korea, the rise of an environmental movement followed its own rapid industrialization, about two decades after Japan’s. There were local protests as early as the 1960s and 70s, in response to pollution around industrial sites and local demands for contamination. Just as pollution in Minamata galvanized the Japanese, Korean farmers demanding compensation for pollution caused by the Ulsan Industrial Complex galvanized others to demand redress, including residents of Seoul and Inch’on affected by poor air quality. Citizens began to establish organizations to pressure the government and demand change (Ku 2002; Lee 2000). But in the atmosphere of a repressive military dictatorship that lasted until 1987, only local action was possible, and the regime blocked attempts at coordination between local residents of polluted areas and any national or international environmental organizations, seeing them (correctly) as connected with the pro-democracy movement and hostile to the dictatorship (Ku 2004: 191). Once the Chun Doo-hwan dictatorship fell in 1987, the space for political organizing around the environment expanded, and during the 1990s Korea’s environmental movement grew rapidly, as part of the growth of civil society organizations generally in the newly democratic country. Now, the Korean Federation for Environmental Movement (KFEM), which was formed in 1993 by the merger of eight national environmental groups, is the largest environmental organization in East Asia by far, boasting more than 80,000 members (Deep Sea n.d.).

Taiwan’s environmental movement developed around the same time as Korea’s, but in different ways. Like its counterparts in Korea, the Nationalist-ruled state ignored environmental concerns in its headlong (and successful) push for development, setting the stage for environmental opposition. This opposition began, as did environmental movements in Japan and Korea, around local issues, primarily those of water pollution. For Taiwan, the pollution cases that served to spark the national movement were those formed against Sunko Ink in Taichung County (1982-1984) and DuPont in Lukang (1986-1987). Both cases saw local villagers organize and successfully force companies to scrap plans to locate factories in their towns (Ho 2010). Throughout the 1980s victims as well as opposition intellectuals began to raise issues of local water and air pollution along with nuclear power and nuclear waste, the latter prompted by the 1980 proposal to build Taiwan’s fourth nuclear power plant. This nascent environmental movement was a primary issue in the programs of the “Outside the Party (Dangwai)” political movement that developed into the Democratic Progressive Party, which was tolerated when it formed in defiance of a ban on the founding of opposition parties in 1986 and was allowed to organize and run candidates when martial law was lifted in 1987. After full democratization in the late 1990s, the environmental movement, among many other social movements, began to resort to mass demonstrations on the one hand, and to formal organizations on the other, becoming, as Ho (2011:120) puts it “a vital component of political life.”

Unlike Korea but like Hokkaido and Okinawa (in Japan), Taiwan has a significant indigenous population, which was deprived of much of its rights to land and resources by the Japanese colonial government and then by the Nationalist dictatorship after 1945. As civil society organizations of all kinds blossomed beginning in the late 1980s, the Aboriginal Rights Movement grew along with them. Because of both resource extraction and the storage of nuclear waste on aboriginal lands after 1979, indigenous rights and environmental rights became closely connected political issues in Taiwan, and have remained so to the present day.

China’s environmental movement, like its economic development, has taken place most recently. Propelled by the Marxist assurance that only capitalism could despoil the environment, along with the ideological valorization of sacrifice for the revolution, the Communist-ruled state paid little attention to environmental concerns even after the transition in the 1980s to a bureaucratic capitalist system in which state agencies, along with private capital, are important industrial and market actors. Informed by what happened in the other countries as pollution intensified —especially how the environmental movement provided significant support to what became successful pro-democracy movements in South Korea and Taiwan—the CCP sought to model its response on the LDP, which was able to stay in power by enacting ambitious, far-reaching legislation protecting the environment. In December 1989 (a mere six months after crushing pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square) China enacted a new Environmental Protection Law, which was quickly followed by additional laws focused on limiting air, water, and solid waste pollution (Xie 2020). The first officially-permitted environmental NGO in China, Friends of Nature (Ziran Zhi You), was established in 1994, working primarily on issues of biodiversity conservation and nature education rather than anti-pollution advocacy (Weller 2006: 128-29).

The Chinese state is notoriously fearful of any kind of independent national-scale organization or movement, environmental or otherwise. The primary focus of environmental organization and protest (as with other forms of protest), therefore, has always been local. Ad hoc, grass-roots organizations formed to address issues of industrial pollution and its effects on agriculture, food safety, water quality, and population health (Lora-Wainwright 2017; Mertha 2008; Yan 2014). Although China, like Taiwan, has large indigenous minority populations, indigenous peoples have not been allowed to organize for environmental causes, lest their organizations develop into movements for local autonomy. When national-scale environmentalism emerged after 1998, it was thus inevitably incorporated into the state’s developmentalist system, and belongs to the next section of our overall history—the evolution of the eco-developmental state.

The Evolution of the Eco-Developmental State

Nowhere in East Asia did the state respond quickly to the environmental concerns brought up by direct action, journalistic exposés, and increasing public awareness. Instead, all of the states, attempting to continue their policies of promoting economic development through collaboration with industrial corporations and enterprises, initially reacted by trying to ignore and minimize the problems. The states claimed that pollution was a temporary sacrifice that populations would have to endure if people wanted to continue to raise their standards of consumption, and by studying environmental problems without doing anything concrete about them (Avenell 2012: 434-35).

Eventually, however, spurred on by a combination of mounting public pressure from growing environmental movements and realization that things were getting bad enough to harm further development, governments began to act to address environmental problems, reaching environmental tipping points. Japan, having been first to pollute, was also first to begin cleaning up, but it did not really begin until the late 1960s and early 1970s, initially at the local level and then only later at the national level. At that time, the Japanese developmental state began to become eco-developmental—passing anti-pollution laws, creating an environmental protection agency, and ruling in favor of pollution victims who had brought lawsuits in the courts (Avenell 2012: 435, Chapter 5; Wakamatsu et al. 2013). Within only a few decades, Japan went from being a “toxic archipelago” (Walker 2011) to one that enjoyed some of the cleanest air, water, and soil among advanced capitalist countries as the government implemented regulations and corporate actors saw the commercial value of cleaner, more efficient production processes and products (Schreurs 2002).

In spite of this dramatic improvement, Japan has not fully replaced its developmental goals and policies with environmental ones. The Japanese state still prioritizes economic growth, although it now takes environmental concerns into account when it considers how to support that growth. As a result, international and national NGOs, local citizen groups, environmental lawyers, and other activists continue to put pressure on the state and large corporations to live up to their environmental promises (Edahiro 2009).

In Korea, the Chun Doo-hwan regime (1980-88) actively worked to suppress the environmental movement. For example, in the face of the “Onsan disease” caused by heavy metal pollution in Gyeongsamnan-do, the government’s environmental agency (falsely) announced that the disease was not caused by industrial pollution (Ku 2004: 196). After democratization, however, the state reaction to environmental concerns began to evolve. President Roh Tae-woo condemned the Doosan Electrical Materials company for spilling phenols into the Nakdong River in 1991. That same year local residents and national NGOs organized to block a proposed dam on the Donggang River, and won their fight on Environment Day when President Kim Dae-Jung announced that plans to build the dam had been scrapped. That same day he laid out “The New Millennium Vision for the Environment” in 2000 (ibid.: 199-201). Since that time Korea’s state regulation has been successful in combating air pollution and partially successful in combating water pollution.

As in Korea, Taiwan’s environmental movement played a key role in democratization itself (Weller 1999), and its political system rather quickly evolved into a “two-camp” structure with splinter parties forming coalitions with the two major parties—the reformed Nationalist Party leading the so-called “blue” camp and the Democratic Progressive Party leading the “green,” both named for the colors of the respective parties’ flags and not for any affiliation with environmental movements. While Korea’s environmentalists formed a powerful organization in the Korean Federation of Environmental Movements (KFEM) that usually supported the Democratic Party, in Taiwan environmentalists formed an independent Green Party. Taiwan’s Green Party has never gained representation in the national legislature, but they have elected representatives to city and county councils and work with the Democratic Progressive Party to run and support candidates for national office. Through their partnership with the Democratic Progressive Party they have promoted such programs as “trash doesn’t fall to the ground (lese bu luo di)” under then-Taipei mayor Chen Shui-bian (which was partly responsible for his successful bid for the presidency in the 2000 elections, ending fifty-plus years of Nationalist party rule). Significant air and water quality regulations were adopted during his mayoral and presidential tenures.

China has followed a similar trajectory to the others, but for very different reasons and with starkly contrasting outcomes. All through the transition from state socialism to bureaucratic capitalism in the 1980s and early 1990s, China’s environmental degradation accelerated. Throughout this period, it continued to be impossible for any but the most local and spontaneous groups to engage in protest, let alone organize effectively in opposition. Thus, unlike the other three places, China has not seen any coordinated environmental or anti-nuclear movements emerge to play a serious role in politics. However, a transformation in state policy orientation did happen, beginning in the mid-1990s and galvanized by disastrous floods in the middle-Yangzi provinces in 1998 that killed more than 3,000 people, left 15 million homeless, and negatively affected more than 200 million people (UN 1998). After researching the cause of the floods, state scientists (wrongly perhaps: see Henck et al. 2011) attributed much of the damage to upstream deforestation caused by the logging booms of the late 1950s, 1970s and 1980s. The state at this point did an about face, and began to take environmental regulation seriously. The State Environmental Protection Administration (later elevated to ministry status) began aggressive campaigns to stop deforestation, followed after a few years by policies emphasizing de-carbonization of the nation’s energy mix, as well as attempts to address excessive water use for irrigation (which had caused the Yellow River, for example, to run dry before it reached the ocean in the winter during the 1990s), and measures to clean up some of the world’s worst urban air pollution. But much of China’s recent push to green its coal-based energy sector though efficiency and renewables has been driven by green industrial policy, in line with overarching economic development and reform goals (Lewis 2013).

Unlike the eco-developmental states in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, however, there has been little coordination between any central-level state agencies and national environmental groups, because there are no powerful national environmental groups. Formally organized local groups do exist from time to time, and local protests continue to be very common (Mertha 2009; Lora-Wainwright 2017). Local state agencies are often eager to compromise and to pay compensation to victims of pollution or occasionally to shut down the most egregious polluters, in fear of retribution from higher-level state agencies.

At the national level, a small number of the largest and most professional global NGOs such as The Nature Conservancy (n.d.) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (2016) have been able to work with the Chinese government to promote better environmental policies. But unlike the other countries, China has not seen an uneasy swaying between opposition and collaboration of state branches and environmental organizations, except in the area of species conservation. Instead, environmental mitigation in China has been largely state-led, using methods ranging from legislation to broad policy initiatives, including the state’s proclamation that China is an “ecological civilization” (shengtai wenming) (Schmitt 2016). Not all of these efforts have achieved immediate success—river and lake eutrophication, for example, are still huge problems (Fu 2020), but the campaign against air pollution triggered by the extreme events of the early 2010s has been a notable success—sulfur dioxide has been eliminated as a major pollutant (Li et al. 2020; MEE n.d.), and ultra-small particulate pollution has been reduced by more than half in almost all cities (MEE n.d.).5 Renewable energy expansion is well ahead of targets set only a few years ago (Sönnichsen 2020), and forest cover continues to expand (State Forestry 2019).

In general, the public and environmental groups have only been able to exercise influence when they work through the channels already provided by the state, which tends to reinforce the legitimacy and authority of the central government while directing the criticism to local authorities (Haddad 2015c; Teets 2018). Widespread unrest has largely taken a virtual form—videos like Chai Jing’s “Under the Dome” (Chai 2015), WeChat and Weibo discussions, and crowd-sourced reporting (Tyson and Logan 2016) of environmental pollution. Citizens critical of the government response to environmental problems have not been allowed to form organizations to express that unhappiness—Chinese citizens can sometimes express discontent as individuals, but if they want to organize, they must form groups that work with, not against, the government.

Since China’s transformation to an eco-developmental state is only about a decade old, we have not yet seen the kind of dramatic improvements in air, water, and soil quality that Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have enjoyed. In general, the environmental situation in China remains in “crisis” mode. That said, we note considerable progress in some areas (e.g., reduction in SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, increase in forest cover) even as the overall situation remains dire.

While the overall story of the environmental cleanup made possible by the transition from a developmental to an eco-developmental state may be significant, we must emphasize that in no case has the state become a fully environmental state committed to sustainability at the expense of growth. The eco-developmental state views green technology as an important industry for continued economic growth and is concerned about the costs and risks related to climate change and pollution clean-up. In other words, the developmental state’s shift in perspective is not from one that was pro-economic growth to one that is pro-environment. Rather, the eco-developmental state now recognizes that many pro-environmental policies are also beneficial for the economy, and that sustainable economic growth requires more sustainable environmental policies and practices. Because the eco-developmental state is still very strongly pro-growth, all of these states continue to face both environmental challenges and significant, even growing pressure from their citizens to respond to those challenges.

Overall, the observed pattern of evolution from developmental to eco-developmental state is based on three main factors: industry support, state capacity, and party incentive.

  1. Industry support. In many cases, pro-environmental policy has the potential to generate economic growth and job creation (e.g., renewable energy industries or increased energy efficiency), and in fact the success of these industries and initiatives has very much been driven by “green’ industrial policy. In other cases, there are real tradeoffs to be made between environmental protection and direct economic gain (e.g., land conservation or pollution control equipment), and in these areas state support has remained lukewarm.
  2. State capacity. In industries and issues where the industry is fairly consolidated and/or the state has a lot of influence, it has been a lot easier to shift policies (e.g., energy, forestry). In industries and issues where the sources of pollution are more diffuse (e.g., car emissions) or the industry is more fragmented (e.g., farming), it has been a lot harder for the state to convince industry to change behavior.
  3. Party incentive. If the issues are negatively affecting an important political constituency, then the ruling party will deal with the issue in order to maintain political legitimacy/support. If the issues are not very visible or affect politically marginalized communities, then the ruling party will be much less likely to deal with the issue.

When these three factors combine, we can observe a wholesale shift away from a growth-at-any-cost policy towards one that regularly includes environmental concerns. Indeed, in some policy areas where these three factors coalesce, we see East Asian countries become global leaders, such as low emission and hybrid vehicles in Japan and solar energy in China. In contrast, in areas where we only see a few of these factors coming together (e.g., biodiversity), we see much less inclusion of environmental concerns into state policy.

Thus, the governments of East Asia have remained developmental states even as they incorporate ecological concern within their priorities. They continue to base their legitimacy on their ability to bring material prosperity to their people. They continue to work closely with industry to coordinate efforts to bring about economic development. In the spheres where the state can work with industry to promote green growth policies, where efficiency and conservation can cut production costs, when short term environmental investments can reap long-term economic gains, we see tremendous progress towards a model of sustainable development. In other areas, where it is more difficult for industry and/or government to collaborate for a policy that is good for the bottom line as well as good for the planet, when people, plants, and animals can only win when industry loses, we continue to see activists across the region seeking to pressure corporations and governments to make more ecologically positive choices. They frequently lose those fights, but they keep fighting.

*

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Stevan Harrell retired in 2017 after 43 years teaching anthropology, China Studies, and Environmental Studies at the University of Washington in Seattle.

Mary Alice Haddad is the John E. Andrus Professor of Government, Chair and Professor of East Asian Studies and Professor of Environmental Studies at Wesleyan University.

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Thomas, Asha E. 2013. Impact of Tourism on Environment: Responding to Global Challenges. Pauline Journal of Research and Studies. 1, 1: 169-182.

Toyota. 2018. Toyota sells 1.52 million electrified vehicles in 2017, three years ahead of 2020 target.

Tu, Wei-Ming. 1989. Centrality and Commonality: An Essay on Confucian Religiousness Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.

Tyers, Roger. 2017. It’s Time to Wake Up to the Devastating Impact Flying Has on the Environment. The Conversation.

Tyson, Elizabeth, and Kate Logan. 2016. Tracking China’s “Filthy Rivers” with Citizen Science. New Security Beat.

UN Environment Programme. 1972. Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment.

UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. n.d. A Paradigm Shift for Economic Growth: Republic of Korea’s National Strategy for Green Growth and Five-Year Plan

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 1998. Final Report on 1998 Floods in the People’s Republic of China.

Upham, Frank K. 2009. Law and Social Change in Postwar Japan. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Wakamatsu, Shinji, Tazuko Morikawa, and Akiyoshi Ito. Air Pollution Trends in Japan between 1970 and 2012 and Impact of Urban Air Pollution Countermeasures. Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment 7 (4): 177-190.

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Notes

This article is based on the introductory chapter to Ashley Esarey, Mary Alice Haddad, Joanna Lewis, and Stevan Harrell eds., Greening East Asia: The Rise of the Eco-Developmental State (University of Washington Press, 2020). We urge all readers who are interested in the subjects raised here to read the book, which contains 15 chapters related to policy and law, local action, and environmental NGOs and coalitions.

We take no position on the status of Taiwan in international law. We treat it as a separate country because: 1) it has its own government, political and judicial system, enforced borders, armed forces, and currency, and 2) its trajectory of development and environment has been unique, different from China, Japan, and South Korea.

GDP percentages vary depending on the method of calculation, from about 23.9% (PPP) to about 25.7% (nominal). Because of the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, we use 2019 rather than 2020 figures.

China produces more motor vehicles than Japan and Korea put together, but almost all of these are used domestically

Based on a study by one of the authors using daily statistics from 2013 through 2020 provided by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which can be found at n.d. b. , PM2.5 历史数据, (Historical Statistics of PM2.5)

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Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the unprecedented disruption of education globally threatening to reverse gains made in access to education and learning across countries. In the East Asia and Pacific region, the pandemic brought education provision in all of the 27 countries supported by UNICEF programmes to a standstill disrupting the lives and affecting the learning of over 325 million children at its peak in April 2020.

This unprecedented disruption to education systems has had particularly devastating impact on the situation of girls’ education, with many having limited access to distance learning during school closures, and with many at risk of not returning to classrooms once schools reopen. The pandemic also caused increases in gender-based violence, early marriage and teenage pregnancy, which in turn negatively affected girls’ ability to access education and learn.

This Brief summarizes the impact of COVID-19 on the education of girls in countries across the East Asia and Pacific region and proposes considerations for national stakeholders and policy makers in their school reopening efforts and beyond. The Brief also highlights and provides specific examples of UNICEF’s programmatic interventions to ensure that girls are not left behind in the efforts to reimagine more inclusive and equitable quality education systems after COVID-19.

COVID-19 may result in an unprecedented increase in girls out-of-school …

More than 15 million girls in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region were not enrolled and able to gain an education before COVID-19:1 Concerted efforts by governments across the region halved the overall number of girls out-of-school from 30 million to 15 million over the past two decades. These notable achievements towards girls’ access to education on a regional level hide significant variability at the country level. In Mongolia and the Philippines, for example, 73% and 63% respectively of primary school aged children out-of-school were girls before COVID-19.2

These trends are expected to be exacerbated by COVID-19. While recent research does not always agree on the exact extent of the negative impact of COVID-19 on school enrolment, all authors agree that the negative impact will be sizeable and lasting if not addressed.

Globally, 20 million additional secondary-aged girls could drop out of school due to COVID-19: Research by the Malala Fund based on dropout rates after the Ebola and financial crisis in 2014/15 and 2008 respectively estimates that 20 million additional girls globally could drop out of secondary schools alone.3 Following the Ebola crisis, girls in Sierra Leone were 16% less likely to be in school and girls in Guinea 25% less likely following school closures in these countries of between six to eight months – similar to the length of school closures in some countries in the East Asia and Pacific region. As the research focuses on secondary-aged girls only, the actual number of girls – primary to secondary aged – potentially not continuing their education on school reopening could be significantly higher.

In the East Asia and Pacific region, more than 1.2 million girls could drop out of school due to COVID-19:

Research conducted by UNESCO estimates that more than 1.2 million additional girls (from pre-primary to upper secondary)4 may drop out or not have access to school next year in countries of the East Asia and Pacific region due to the pandemic’s socio-economic impact including the need to generate income, increased household and child caring responsibilities, early and forced marriage and/or unintended pregnancy. Those who did not have access to distance education during government-imposed lockdowns are at particular risk of dropping out.

Click here to read the full report.

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India Should Hold the Line on Myanmar

March 16th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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The Indian government has done the right thing by sending an advisory to the four northeastern states — Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh — to be vigilant about preventing large scale influx of people from across the border with Myanmar where the internal situation is deteriorating. 

Authorities in Myanmar extended martial law in more areas of the main city of Yangon Monday amid reports of more killings of protesters at the hands of security forces. Authorities had earlier imposed martial law in a suburb of the city after several Chinese-owned factories were set on fire and about 2,000 people had stopped fire engines from reaching them. 

The Chinese Communist Party daily Global Times has alleged in an editorial that “The violent attacks were apparently well organised and planned”. The editorial hinted that the protests in Myanmar and the arson against Chinese establishments are being coordinated from abroad. Beijing traced the twitter account of Founder and Executive Director of Burma Human Rights Network, operating out of London since 2015, for inciting the unrest in Myanmar. 

The BHRN is known to be linked to the British intelligence. An established pattern of colour revolution stirred up through the social media is repeating — as had happened in Hong Kong, Thailand and Belarus recently. For the past several weeks, BBC, Radio Free Asia (US-funded), Voice of America, etc. have been on overdrive regarding Myanmar closely coordinating with the young revolutionaries in Yangon. 

The Global Times disclosed that the US asked China to condemn the Myanmar military and impose sanctions against it. But, “China will certainly not accept it. Actually, none of ASEAN members has the same attitude as the US and the West. Myanmar’s neighbouring countries have coincidently held the same stance with profound, realistic reasons. This is in line with the moral principles of independence and autonomy of each country. The West has no right to point an accusing finger at them.” 

The Russian assessment is also that the West’s motivation in stirring up the Myanmar situation is “cynical” — with a view to “make problems for China.” A commentary in the Sputnik said, 

“Western powers sense they have China over a barrel with Myanmar due to its strategic economic interests. If China doesn’t condemn, then the anger of Myanmar protesters can be directed at ripping up infrastructure. If China does condemn, then it is being put in to sour relations with Myanmar’s military rulers. The Western powers appear to be ratcheting up the vice-like position.” 

“The Biden administration has made it abundantly clear that it is ramping up the geopolitical rivalry with China even more than the previous Trump administration. Washington wants to clamp down on China’s rise as a global power. By targeting Myanmar, the United States and its Western allies calculate that they can damage a key node in China’s new Silk Routes for its lucrative global trade and economic expansion.”

Chaos in Myanmar, which has a strategic location on China’s periphery, suits the West. It will block China’s access to the Indian Ocean from Yunnan via Bay of Bengal. Creating instability in the peripheries of Russia and China is a template of the US’ containment strategy. The intention is to stir up colour revolution, instal pro-US regimes via local proxies and encircle Russia and China in an arc of hostility. The colour revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine met with success. The attempts by the western intelligence to create turbulent conditions to undermine the established order in Hong Kong and Belarus failed. Thailand and Myanmar are work in progress.

However, from the Indian perspective, what matters most is not the geopolitics of Myanmar but that this is all about a neighbouring country with which it has a 1600 km border. A chaotic situation in Myanmar ensuing from the geopolitical struggle would have serious consequences for the security of India’s northeastern region, which has historical, cultural and ethnic links with the tribes inhabiting the border regions of Myanmar.

A large scale influx of these tribes into India due to the chaos in Myanmar and the breakdown of state power, is becoming a high probability. It must be prevented at all costs. Global Times was spot on in forewarning that “Various ethnic groups live in Myanmar, resulting in complex contradictions within the country. An active interference in Myanmar’s domestic affairs will bring unbearable consequences.” 

The heart of the matter is that the current unrest is restricted mainly to the cities and towns of the central region of Myanmar inhabited by the Burmans — principally, the cities of Yangon and Mandalay. The other regions (borderlands) are inhabited by various ethnic groups comprising nearly 50% of the population who are not involved at all in the current unrest. 

Alas, outsiders are largely unaware of the complex inter-ethnic equations in Myanmar. Broadly, there are more than 20 different ethnic armed formations in Myanmar who are estimated to have around 70000 fighters operating mostly in remote jungle mountain areas where some of them control territory which is notionally under the central govt, while others are waging guerrilla war for decades. 

Any notion that these non-Burman ethnic groups could team up with the protestors (Burmans) in Yangon or Mandalay and form a unified force is pretty fanciful. In fact, the Burman politicians drawn from the central region (Aung Saan Suu Kyi’s NLD) have hardly any moorings in the peripheral regions. 

For good reasons, today, these non-Burman ethnic groups are not receptive to the appeal by the NLD for unity to confront the military. They harbour a strong sense of disillusionment / resentment that the “benefits” of democratic rule under the NLD headed by Suu Kyi through the past decade never really percolated to them. In fact, in a lot of those ethnic areas, the conflict actually increased and more human rights violations took place during the past 10 years than before. Suu Kyi and her government were also silent about these human rights violations. They didn’t condemn them or try to stop them. They even branded some of the ethnic groups as terrorist organisations. 

Herein lies the paradox. The heart of the matter is that the NLD is a staunchly (Burman) nationalist party. Now, Suu Kyi’s father had founded the Burmese military as a symbol of Burman nationalism — and the military became the bulwark for the newly created state after independence with the Burman as its ethnic base. Suu Kyi herself has been mindful that the military as an institution must remain as the “steel frame” without which Myanmar, a mosaic of over 135 ethnic groups, would disintegrate into countless fiefdoms locked in warlordism or civil war. 

Inevitably, India’s northeastern region will be sucked into the tribal wars and ethnic strife inside a chaotic Myanmar. The population in India’s northeastern region have a strong sense of kinship with the ethnic groups across the border. Christianity is the second largest religion in Myanmar, making up close to 10% of the population already. It was no coincidence that in 2017, the Pope undertook an evangelical mission to Myanmar.

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Featured image: Fire from burning Chinese-owned factories in Myanmar’s industrial township of Hlaingthaya, Yangon, March 15, 2021 (Source: Indian Punchline)

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Located in the East China Sea, the five uninhabited islands with a total area of about 6 square kilometers, which in Japan are called Senkaku and in China Diaoyu, are among those few “particularly heated” zones, from which, under unfortunate circumstances, the flames of full-scale conflict could well erupt. Not only in the Indo-Pacific region, but also on a global scale.

That the latter claim is not an ill-founded assertion is evidenced in particular by the military activation of some of the leading European countries in the IPR in general and in the immediate vicinity of the zones mentioned. It is here, on the other side of the globe, that the former major colonialists are looking for a thrill.

In the latest development, on February 9, a French nuclear attack submarine surfaced in the South China Sea. Two weeks later, a French frigate called into the Japanese port of Nagasaki: North Korea needs someone to look after it, you know. Where, one wonders, are the various troubles of the IPR, and where does the growing lump of French (British, German) problems lie?

But the main external force in the IPR and in all the “hot zones” of the region remains, undoubtedly, the United States. The fluctuation of Washington’s political course in relation to the situation in each of them is influenced by the sum of a variety of factors. Both internal and external. In this regard, Washington’s response (if any) to occasional questions from Tokyo about extending Article V of the 1960 bilateral “Security Treaty” to the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is quite revealing.

The very fact that for decades, time after time, this question has been raised not only before every new American administration, but often while some of them have been in power, is remarkable. As was the case, for example, during B. Obama’s second presidential term. Something unusual is hidden in the very subject of the said question, if it is periodically actualized. To determine this oddity we must once again turn to local geography and recent history.

The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are located approximately 150 km west of the southern Ryukyu Archipelago, which stretches 1,200 km from north to south from one of the four major Japanese islands, Kyushu, to Taiwan. From this last island, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are 150 km away, from the PRC coast 300 km away. This geography serves as a reason for Beijing (as well as Taiwan, which is secondary) not to refer the disputed islands to the Ryukyu Archipelago.

And this is where the history part comes in. The fact is that the entire Ryukyu Archipelago is present in the Japan-China territorial dispute (in the author’s view). Just as part of India’s elite has buried deep in its “mental subcortex” the problem of suzerainty (not sovereignty as it is today) of Beijing over all of Tibet. Although on the political surface there are “only” disputes over the ownership of 100 thousand square kilometers of the Sino-Indian border zone.

Just as India would like (of course, not publicly and officially) to see all of Tibet fairly autonomous from Beijing, so the latter would prefer (again, not publicly) to have a quasi-state entity called Ryukyu, with extensive autonomy from Tokyo, next to it. For which there are some historical reasons.

The fact is that before the second half of the nineteenth century, such a quasi-state formation with its fairly autochthonous population already existed. The Ryukyu Archipelago became part of Japan as Japan began its foreign policy expansion after the so-called Meiji Restoration (in the late 1960s), and mainly as a result of the First Sino-Japanese War (1894-95). The status of the adjacent Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands was not specified in any way.

With the end of World War II, the Ryukyu Archipelago came under US control, which in 1951 was enshrined in the San Francisco Peace Treaty (Article 3) with the international legal status of trusteeship. However, this document, too, said nothing specifically about the status of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

In 1972, the Ryukyu Archipelago returned to Tokyo’s jurisdiction, an act of goodwill on the part of Washington toward a now key ally in Asia. On lease (but paid for by the Japanese budget) part of the territory of Okinawa, that is, the main island of the Ryukyu Archipelago, remained the main base of the American military contingent in Japan. But with the return of this archipelago to its jurisdiction, Japan also regained the unresolved status of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

In the author’s view, again, the connection of this very local problem with the potential issue of the status of the entire Ryukyu Archipelago underlies the acuteness of the situation in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands area. And not so much the (almost always mentioned) abundance of fish and the allegedly huge hydrocarbon reserves at the bottom of the surrounding sea. The latter was predicted by a certain UN commission back in the late 1960s.

In 2012, the Japanese government decided to end the terra nullius status of these islands. A certain Japanese “owner” of three of them was found who agreed to “sell” them. Since then they have all been the “property” of the Japanese government.

It is hardly necessary to explain Beijing’s reaction to the very procedure of this “sale-purchase”. With its accomplishment, the situation around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands began to deteriorate steadily. Japan considered as an open challenge the introduction in early February of this year of China’s Border Guard Law, which, among other things, allows Chinese border ships to fire on foreign “intruder ships” in national territorial waters.

On February 9, during a conversation with US charge d’affaires ad interim Joseph Young at the office of the Japanese Defense Ministry, its head Nobuo Kishi called the law “absolutely unacceptable”. Two weeks later, there was a “news leak” about a conversation between a “group” of members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and some Japanese government representatives concerning the rights of Japanese border ships in the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands area. The relevant question raised by the “group” was answered positively.

In other words, the situation around these islands is getting only worse. And the question of the US position is extremely important in predicting its further development. Which in relation to Japan is in terms of a binding military-political alliance, and to China as the main geopolitical opponent.

Meanwhile, during the aforementioned conversation between Joseph Youn gand Nobuo Kishi, the former only uttered a ritual mantra about his country’s commitment to the principle of “freedom and openness” in the maritime communications of the IPR and said nothing on the subject of the issue raised by Nobuo Kishi. Or at least there is no mention of it in the media comments.

Article V is mentioned in the official report about one of President Joe Biden’s phone conversations with Prime Minister Yo. Suga. But without any “territorial” reference, which contradicts the more definite interpretation of this conversation by almost all the respected news media. Meanwhile, in the course of the election campaign, the same Biden was already making such a connection. But, as is well known, opposition “blabbering” and the words of an official clothed with supreme power are completely different things. Even in form, not to mention in content.

There are noticeable nuances on this issue during the press conferences of Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, which was noticed in Japan.

In other words, as before, we are witnessing the usual behavior of every participant in the “Great World Game,” seeking to benefit himself, but to avoid (if possible) the prospect of getting into trouble for an entirely unnecessary reason. The same can be seen in the positioning of the US in relation to the “Taiwan Issue,” the territorial disputes in the South China Sea: “We have no formal obligations and behave according to the situation”.

Japan is “dragging its feet” on joining the anti-Russian sanctions adopted by its allies over “some Ukraine,” claiming that it is extremely important for Tokyo to develop good relations with Russia (for reasons that go far beyond the notorious “Northern Territories” issue). Articles about the dubiousness of extending Article V of the bilateral “Security Treaty” to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands appear in the landmark US press. Japan eventually joins the said sanctions – some time later President B. Obama publicly declares that, of course, the US obligations apply to these islands as well.

With the uncertainty of US foreign policy in general and towards China in particular, it is quite possible that the same contradictory “nuances” in the situation around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands will continue to emerge, which is escalating before our eyes.

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Vladimir Terekhov is an expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Featured image is from New Eastern Outlook

India: Women Reject State Surveillance

March 15th, 2021 by Kavita Krishnan

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Abridged from Liberation. Kavita Krishnan will speak at Green Left’s 30th birthday event on March 27.

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Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan has proposed that every woman stepping out of her home be required to register herself with her local police station so that the police can track her for her safety.

Chief Justice Sharad Arvind Bobde asked last month why women had been “kept” at the farmers’ protests and praised Supreme Court advocate AP Singh (a man with a record of victim-blaming and support for honour crimes) for giving an assurance that women would be sent home and kept out of the protests.

As an Indian woman, these developments fill me with a sense of foreboding and panic. Chouhan and Bobde are men with immense power, who do not feel obligated to listen to the voices of women. Their whims carry the weight of authority.

We need to tell these powerful and influential men: Women are not a “problem” for which confinement and surveillance are the “solution”. Women are not “things” owned by men, which need to be “protected” from theft or damage.

Women are people with the inalienable right to live the fullest of lives. Everything that prevents their life from being lived to the fullest extent of freedom is a form of violence.

Violence against autonomy is, by far, the most widespread and the least acknowledged form of gender-based violence in India.

I wrote Fearless Freedom to document and discuss this fact. National Family Health Survey data shows that just 42% of women with no schooling, and 45% of women with schooling, have the right to go “alone to the market, to the health centre, and outside the community”.

An India Human Development Survey (IHDS) found that even those women who could go out alone — to workplaces, for instance — are expected to seek permission from some authority figure in the household to do so.

The NFHS and IHDS surveys found that even Dalit, educated and socially disadvantaged caste (OBC) and adivasi (indigenous) women experience restrictions on mobility, to more or less the same extent as women from more privileged castes.

In Fearless Freedom, I wrote:

“What do these facts and figures really mean? They translate to a life lived ‘crashing against walls’, like a bird caught in a closed room, battered by every attempt to escape and fly free. There’s really no way to dress up this life and romanticise it as ‘safe’. Such intense and obsessive confinement of women is not ‘safety’. It’s time we recognised it as violence in its own right.”

Rape or sexual assault is violence against women’s autonomy — that is, her control over her own body.

Confinement to the home and surveillance inside and outside the home is also violence against women’s autonomy.

Requiring women to take permission from authority figures in the family to step out of the home is violence against women’s autonomy.

Requiring women to inform state authorities (like the police) of their movements outside the home is violence against women’s autonomy.

Requiring women to seek permission from the state to convert to another faith or marry someone from a different caste or community is violence against women’s autonomy.

Withholding the right of a woman to take risks (by protesting in cold weather for instance) is violence against women’s autonomy.

A man is not asked to explain and answer for why he is “outside his house”. The “outside” is accepted as his natural sphere.

The very fact that a woman is expected to answer to others for her presence “outside her house” proves that the house is in fact a prison for a very large number of women. As Shilpa Phadke’s 2011 book Why Loiter eloquently asserts, women have a right to loiter without purpose, and it is only by asserting and defending this right that women can truly have a claim to their city.

Confinement is violence, not safety.

Surveillance is violence, not safety.

Those who prescribe restrictions on women’s freedoms in the name of “safety” are the most likely to voice rape culture that blames victims, not perpetrators, for sexual violence.

Singh is a handy example. He declared, in the context of the Delhi gang rape and murder in 2012, “if my daughter was having premarital sex and moving around at night with her boyfriend, I would have burnt her alive. All parents should adopt such an attitude.”

The man who justified rape of a woman on the grounds that she went out at night with her boyfriend, says today that women must stay home and keep out of protests — and the Chief Justice agrees with him. What a disturbing and dangerous meeting of minds.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the fascist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) act as though the Manusmriti (a religious script declaring that women are never free, and must always be in the custody of their father, husband or son) is India’s Constitution — and they boast that their views and policies are in line with those of the majority of Indians, while feminist ideas are confined to an isolated, “westernised” minority.

BJP leader Ram Madhav boasted in an Indian Express op-ed in 2017 that this liberal, feminist minority, which had enjoyed an influence out of proportion to its size, was finally out of the driver’s seat, and “The mob, humble people of the country, are behind [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi. They are finally at ease with a government that looks and sounds familiar. They are enjoying it.”

In another op-ed in the same paper in 2019, Madhav called for the “pseudo-secular/liberal cartels that held a disproportionate sway and stranglehold over the intellectual and policy establishment of the country” to be purged from “the country’s academic, cultural and intellectual landscape” under Modi’s second term as PM.

People’s movements in India (trade union, students’, feminist, anti-caste, civil liberties and environmental movements) aim, like Dalit rights campaigner B R Ambedkar, to democratise Indian society — and these movements have been led by masses of ordinary people, not by liberal intellectuals. From educators Savitribai Phule and Fatima Sheikh, to anti-dowry campaigners Shahjahan Apa and Satyarani Chaddha, feminist organisers are the products of Indian soil, fighting for a more democratic India.

As we have seen, NFHS data does show that regressive anti-feminist ideas and practices are still widespread in India. But until six years ago, women could still appeal to the courts, at least, and be fairly confident that the outcome would uphold constitutional morality above social majoritarian morality. Today, we have no basis for such complacence.

With the BJP and RSS controlling government and influencing every institution, women’s legally recognised liberties hang by a thread. All that stands between women and regressive laws legalising the shackles on their autonomy are the courts. And the sheer number of judges who seem to have no understanding or respect for the very concept of women’s autonomy and constitutional morality does not inspire confidence.

It is no coincidence, after all, that some of the inspiring Indian feminist figures of our times (to name a few — advocate Sudha Bharadwaj and teacher Shoma Sen, student activists Natasha Narwal and Devangana Kalita of Pinjra Tod, Ishrat Jahan and Gulfisha) are in prison today under draconian laws, and no judge seems able to see and end the appalling injustice of their incarceration.

Our rights rest on the chance that the judge who gets to weigh in on such regressive policies and laws will be guided by constitutional morality, and not by his own patriarchal common sense. That is a grim thought.

It is women’s movements, and the extraordinary courage of ordinary women in the face of fascist assaults, that supply the confidence that the Courts do not. We draw courage from the young women like Muskanwho tell violent mobs that she is an adult and has a right to marry whom she pleases.

We draw courage from the young women out to loiter and break the cages of hostels and homes even as leaders of these movements are thrown in prison.

We draw courage from the elderly, grey-haired women who lead movements asserting equal citizenship and farmers’ rights, and refuse to be treated like school kids and “sent home” by paternalistic judges.

The followers of the Manusmriti are afraid of the change that women’s movements can bring. And we can smell their fear. And their fear dispels ours.

So Messrs Chouhan, Adityanath and company, the honourable chief justice and other honourable judges — we are not going to be boxed up by you.

We refuse to show you papers to prove our citizenship.

We refuse to register ourselves with the police.

We refuse to allow courts to decide if obnoxious, regressive “laws” and policies are legitimate or not — we will defy them and refuse to obey them no matter what the judges think.

We are going to wash the dirty linen in public — and expose the violence inside our homes.

We need no one’s permission to break our cages.

We are here on the streets — and here we are going to stay.

Get used to it.

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Quad: Say It Like Modi

March 15th, 2021 by M. K. Bhadrakumar

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India hasn’t had a prime minister to match Narendra Modi in his grasp of the power of speaking with purpose to connect with his listeners. When he speaks on foreign policy issues, however, Modi uses communication skills of a certain kind where he doesn’t have to build to a crescendo and he’d much rather leave a record for lasting impression. 

Modi’s remarks at the landmark first-ever summit meeting of the  Quad on Friday is a case in point. What comes to mind is a book that I picked up at Mumbai airport many years ago titled SAY IT LIKE OBAMA by Shel Leanne who used to be a full faculty member at Harvard. It focuses on the communicative power of Barack Obama — a “mixture of Martin Luther King and John F. Kennedy”.

Modi’s communication skills are of a different kind. He lacks Obama’s deep baritone and his communication techniques of backward loops and symbolism and his inspiring, compelling eloquence. But Modi created a strong non-conformist first impression at the Quad summit.

Modi’s remarks added up to just 105 words — in comparison with his voluble American counterpart Joe Biden’s 560 words, his ebullient Australian counterpart Scott Morrison’s 295 words and the taciturn Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga’s 215 words. Conceivably, External Affairs Minister  S. Jaishankar advised the PM beforehand that discretion would be the better part of valour.  This is the first thing. 

Truly, India gains nothing out of irritating China at this point in time. Probably, it’d have much to lose. Besides, it’s surreal to get excited about a US enterprise that the Asia-Pacific refuses to identify with. This is aside the wisdom of aligning with Biden’s ambivalent, contrarian attitudes toward China. Unsurprisingly, America’s close European allies refuse to identify with the US approach. 

An incisive analysis by Reuters last week summed up:

“EU is looking for a strategic balance in relations with Beijing and Washington that ensures the bloc is not so closely allied with one of the world’s two big powers that it alienates the other… But the EU is hungry for new trade and sees the Indo-Pacific as offering huge potential.” 

The report quoted a EU diplomat as saying that the US has “a hawkish agenda against China, which is not our agenda”. This is the crux of the matter. One doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out why Biden slipped into his Quad wardrobe so early into his presidency. 

Last week, Biden’s aides were extending an invitation to high-level Chinese officials for strategic talks. Biden is in tearing hurry to engage with the Chinese leadership, although the US has far from coordinated with its allies a common strategy towards China, his passion for trans-atlanticism notwithstanding. 

The heart of the matter is that Biden has successfully signed into law his $1.9 Trillion American Rescue Package. This would be in addition to previous $900 billion stimulus packages he announced in January. Biden said on Thursday, “The crisis of deep human suffering is in plain sight.” In a call to immediate action to turn things around, he added, “There’s no time to waste. We have to act and we have to act now.” 

Biden’s American Rescue Plan is broadly popular with voters but at its core, it is about living on borrowed money in ways that will do little to improve the nation’s long-term economic outlook. The overall federal debt is expected to climb to 102% of GDP this year! The point is, deficit-financed spending now on a short-term relief package could make it harder for the Biden administration to find money later for long-term investments in things like infrastructure. 

Enter China. The economies of the US and China are intricately linked, due to the two nations sharing a large trading partnership of goods and services and  investment. The US deficit is financed partly by capital flows from China. China holds more US Treasury securities than any other foreign country except Japan. According to the US Treasury, China owned $1.06 trillion in US debt securities as of Sept. 2020. 

Clearly, the huge influence of the Chinese economy on Biden’s calculus cannot be understated. China is the only show in town for his ambitious project encapsulated in that very widely used expression “Build Back Better” where he has openly telegraphed his role model to be FDR’s New Deal, which is riveted on the famous “Three Rs” — relief (for the unemployed), recovery (through federal spending and job creation), and reform (of capitalism by means of regulatory legislation and creation of new social welfare programs). 

Biden desperately needs the “2+2” talks in Anchorage on March 18-19 with top Chinese diplomats to reset the US-China relationship. But the paradox is that he is also not ready to let go the containment strategy against China that the Beltway demands, although it has no takers abroad among America’s friends and allies. Simply put, the US has a tactical need to keep the Quad going while it resets the ties with China. 

This is where Modi’s remarks show smart thinking. He stated:

“Excellencies, we are united by our democratic values and our commitment to a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Our agenda today — covering areas like vaccines, climate change, and emerging technologies — make the Quad a force for global good.”

“I see this positive vision as an extension of India’s ancient philosophy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, which regards the world as one family.  We will work together, closer than ever before, for advancing our shared values and promoting a secure, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.”

“Today’s summit meeting shows that Quad had come of age.  It will now remain an important pillar of stability in the region.” 

Modi stated the minimum that was necessary for the occasion. Evidently, Modi enjoys claiming affinity with Biden in “democratic values”. It has its uses too. Biden is a tough, wily, unsentimental partner. (The US just co-sponsored a scathing UNHRC resolution condemning authoritarianism and repression in Egypt under President Sisi — and is threatening to impose arms embargo against that close ally bordering Israel.) 

Second, Modi repeated “our commitment to a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific”. It is Biden’s prerogative as the self-appointed Quad chairman to drop the word “inclusive” from the joint statement, but for Modi it is important not to attribute any exclusivity to Quad as if it is directed against China. 

Modi noted the “agenda” for the summit’s deliberations — vaccines, climate change, and emerging technologies — and expressed confidence that such a purposive development agenda would “make the Quad a force for global good.” In essence, he flagged India’s vision of the Quad. Does it look like “Asian NATO”? 

Equally, Modi struck a philosophical note: “I see this positive vision as an extension of India’s ancient philosophy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, which regards the world as one family.” In Modi’s conception, the Quad family can accommodate Marxist-Leninists and capitalists alike.

Modi sounded pleased that the Quad has “come of age”, finally. The plan to finance a brand new ultra-modern vaccine factory in India testifies to maturity. Modi hoped that the Quad “will now remain an important pillar of stability in the region.” Interestingly, in his entire remarks, Modi never once mentioned regional security. 

Indeed, Modi’s expectation will be that the newly set-up Quad Working Groups on climate and critical and emerging technology will also make investments in “Make in India” projects. However, everything Biden does has a domestic resonance. The Quad isn’t a seductive enough topic for American domestic opinion.  NSA Jake Sullivan’s media briefing turned out to be a damp squib!

For Biden too, this summit has been quintessentially a useful catch-up on vaccine-diplomacy, as New York Times pointed out, to push back against intense pressure to donate excess coronavirus vaccines to needy nations “without risking domestic political blowback from exporting doses in the coming months, as Americans clamour for their shots.” China, India and Russia have hopelessly outmatched the US in vaccine diplomacy. Biden is facing accusations of vaccine hoarding from global health advocates.

In the final analysis, of course, Beijing has since outwitted Biden by simply scaling up its vaccine production capacity manifold to a mammoth scale that his Quad vaccine project cannot possibly compete with.

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Palawan is an outlier in the Philippine archipelago, its topography and habitat closer to that of Borneo than the rest of the country’s major islands. This so-called last ecological frontier is under siege on two fronts: internally, politicians want the island carved up into smaller administrative regions; externally, it stands as a buffer against threats from a superpower across the sea.

On March 13, half a million of Palawan’s population will vote in a plebiscite calling to split up the island into three provinces — north, south, and central Palawan — and leaving its capital, Puerto Princesa, as a separate chartered city, excluded from voting for the province’s future.

The idea, approved by Congress in 2018 and signed by President Rodrigo Duterte a year later, was met by an uproar from environmentalists and settler families who have eschewed the clan-run patronage politics practiced elsewhere in the Philippines. Critics also say the threat of breaking up the island could not have come at a worse time, with the COVID-19 pandemic compounding a maritime dispute with Beijing in the South China Sea.

The proposed divided Palawan will have Palawan del Norte, with Taytay as its capital; Palawan Oriental, with Roxas as its capital; and Palawan del Sur, with Brooke’s Point as the provincial capital. Puerto Princesa City, the existing provincial capital, will become its own chartered city.

The plan to break up the islands has, however, been applauded by political clans who have long pushed for the division; three new provinces create more political positions to farm out.

The group of congresspeople and some local government officials pushing for the division say there is higher revenue to be generated out of this undertaking. They say the split is estimated to yield a 10% increase in each new province’s internal revenue allotment (IRA), the yearly budget handed out by the national government to augment a province’s earnings. In their view, having three administrations instead of one governing the island will kill two birds with one stone: social services will be more accessible and officials will be “closer to the people.”

Opponents of the division warn of a drastic shift in the management of the natural resources Palawan is known for, raising concerns about a possible weakening of the enforcement laws that protect the province’s already threatened ecology.

Whims and wills

The island has come a long way from the penal colony that it once was, to an ecotourism haven; a shift from being a laid-back island province to an international destination for backpackers and jet-setters, famous even by Hollywood standards. For decades, Palawan banked on its natural resources and sustainable practices to provide livelihood for communities and boost its earnings, all heavily hinged on proper environmental management.

The measure being put up for a vote lays out the political structure of a new Palawan region, but remains vague on the implementation of various programs, particularly on environmental management.

Significantly, under the new law the appointment of a Provincial Environment and Natural Resources (PENRO) position is “optional,” and the Palawan Council for Sustainable Development (PCSD), the current overseer of environmental regulations, will have to have three officials as de facto heads of the council, a prospect that might stymie or create delays in decision-making.

With the environment a devolved sector in Philippine governance, groups say the unclear management structure will depend on political whims and wills, as it is municipalities, after all, that fund the hiring of forest and marine guards.

The possible rise in revenue also isn’t what it seems, says Ferdie Blanco, a strategic planning specialist and part of the ONE Palawan movement opposing the island’s partition. Palawan remains heavily dependent on the IRA from the national government, and the state of infrastructure and basic services remains inadequate, he said. So why break it up when development should be the focus, he asks.

The proposed conservation zone for the Victoria-Anepahan mountain range, home to the Philippine pangolin (Manis culionensis) sees heavy deforestation in recent years. Image created through Global Forest Watch

And while the island may obtain wealth in terms of extractive industry, proceeds from large-scale mining in the south and gas field exploration in the north will be distributed separately to the three provincial governments if the law is passed.

Under current laws, municipalities and barangays (villages) affected by large-scale extractive projects earn through a revenue-sharing scheme with the national government. In the revenue allotted for local governments, municipalities and barangays are entitled 35% and 45% each of the revenue generated by these industries, leaving 20% for provincial offices. But the new law will overturn this: provincial governments stand to gain 60%, cutting down the shares of municipalities to 24% and barangays, the smallest political units in the country, to 16%.

“A community that hosts a mining site should have the biggest share because they are directly affected by these projects,” Blanco says. “But the division law reverses this … This allocation is far from equitable.”

He compares the economic performances of other provinces that have been split into smaller units and cites two trends: Divided provinces reported higher poverty rates, and one province becomes a “laggard,” left behind in terms of progress. In Palawan, Blanco says this is likely to be the middle part of the island, which would be called Palawan Oriental and where a majority of residents depend on low-income fishing and agriculture.

Frozen Philippine Pangolins intended for the wild meat black market were seized in Palawan on 28th July 2018. Image by TRAFFIC.

While the province is on the front lines of conservation in the country, with its protected areas regarded as model initiatives, Palawan also suffers from a wide range of destructive activity, from poaching to wildlife trafficking, largely due to the fact that it does not have enough enforcers, and, often, political will to crack down on the illegal trades.

Palawan is considered the “hottest hotspot” in the Philippines’ wildlife trafficking routes, according to USAID’s Protect Wildlife project, also citing intelligence reports showing the involvement of “influential people that maintain a network of perpetrators.”

The island is home to more than 400 wildlife species, most of them found nowhere else on Earth. The island likewise boasts of having one-eighteenth of the world’s biodiversity, says Aldrin Mallari of the Center for Conservation Innovations.

“The current conservation policies do not match the needs of the threatened species,” says Mallari, adding that if the status quo remains and if the island winds up divided, it will be “the last nail on the coffin” for the future of Palawan.

A school of juvenile bigeye trevally (Caranx sexfasciatus ) swims in the shallows of Dimakya Island, Palawan, Philippines. Image by Steve De Neef/Greenpeace

Around 36% of the country’s marine species comes from the waters off the island’s 2,000-kilometer (1,240-mile) coastline, says Oceana Philippines, a conservation NGO. Fisheries statistics show Palawan is the top province in terms of fish volume production, valued at 14 million pesos ($288,000) in 2019 – a huge amount for fishers who are considered among the poorest in the country.

Palawan, too, has the largest forest cover of any province in the Philippines, but every year it loses an average of 13,323 hectares (32,922 acres) to mostly illegal logging that takes place on the range of Mount Mantalingahan — one the island province’s largest protected areas. If the new measure to split up the province succeeds, the protection of the mountain will fall under the sole jurisdiction of what will be called Palawan del Sur province in the south.

Central Palawan covers the Victoria-Anepahan mountain range, home of the critically endangered Philippine pangolin (Manis culionensis), a scaly anteater that’s become increasingly rare to spot in the wild due to poaching and wildlife trafficking. Municipal authorities are still in the long process of crafting a “harmonized management system” among the local government units — already a challenge under a single province, and expected to become more complicated under three.

As the plebiscite nears, the people are just as divided, with the northerners generally against breaking up the province, while those in the south, which has already seen profits from mining and the prospects of oil palm plantations on Indigenous lands, are said to favor it.

Mt. Mantalingahan Protected Landscape is Palawan’s largest terrestrial protected area that serves as home to 2,951 Indigenous families. Image courtesy of MMPL Protected Area Office

Dynastic politics

Governor Jose Alvarez, the prime mover behind the split, has painted a picture of northern Palawan sticking to the business of tourism, and southern Palawan being turned into a grand economic zone.

Alvarez, who hails from Mindanao in the southern Philippines, has risen to political power through the years since he first established his presence as one of the biggest logging concessionaires on the island. In the early 1990s, his business took a hit when a nationwide logging ban was imposed and Palawan was put under the scope of a strategic environmental plan.

He stayed, funding advocacy projects and programs across municipalities and eventually running for office in 2010. He failed on his first attempt, but won by a landslide in 2013, remaining in office for three consecutive terms, the maximum allowed. His support for splitting up the province is a common tactic for political clans seeking to expand their domain; the splitting of other Philippine provinces has allowed the ruling dynasties there to continue occupying congressional and local government seats.

Governor Jose Alvarez solicits local officials’ support on RA 11259 in a Palawan Oriental baranggay summit last March 2020. Photo courtesy of Provincial Government Office via 3n1 Palawan Facebook Page

Governor Alvarez’s plan, seen through this lens, will likely benefit his family links and loyal allies; his relatives hold pivotal posts in Palawan province. But in the current geopolitical climate, Palawan stands as a sentinel in what the government calls the West Philippine Sea, and its place on the map has become critical.

Environmentalists are wary of Alvarez’s designs, saying his plan of dividing Palawan is one driven by a political agenda and done without consultation with civil society and other special interest groups.

The governor has, for example, already pushed for the exemption of specific protected areas from the Expanded National Integrated Protected Areas System (E-NIPAS). He said it would restrict development projects in those areas; but just before the pandemic lockdown in early 2020, the province passed an ordinance creating a new council to oversee the management of all of Palawan’s protected areas.

Bordering disputed waters

The capital, Puerto Princesa, has seen drastic changes over the past few decades. Once a sleepy town, its commercial boom has shaken up environmental rules. A highway built in 2007 that runs from the city to the north, where tourism flourishes, has sped up the rate of business, but failed to regulate a mushrooming tourism industry that has largely broken the principles of conservation.

The capital itself has turned into a crowded urban center where a growing number of tour groups from mainland China have caused friction with the local population. There are fears the situation could get worse as foreign tour operators try to monopolize the business in what the locals call “an invasion.”

Local Philippine fishers’ boats in Palawan. Fisheries statistics show Palawan is the top province in terms of fish volume production. Image courtesy of John Griffiths via Flickr (CC 2.0).

In late 2019, a scandal erupted when a military raid on an apartment unearthed a huge cache of dried pangolin scales, seahorses and marine turtle carapace for smuggling. The foiled smuggling attempt allegedly involved a Chinese businessman previously involved in wildlife trafficking and suspected of smuggling in Chinese nationals working for online gambling operations.

The past six months saw an uptick in the poaching of giant clams with authorities seizing at least 150 tons of fossilized shells buried in the sand across various areas in the province. Seen as a replacement for ivory, Palawan’s giant clams have been the target of Chinese poachers.

More than anything, Palawan is now on the front line of geopolitical tension in the South China Sea, bracing itself for any possibility of a flashpoint. Its southern coastline is a jumping-off point to Thitu Island, otherwise known as the Kalayaan Island Group, occupied by the Philippines to mark its territory among the tiny islands, shoals and reefs that China says falls within its own “nine-dash line” — a controversial maritime border Beijing wields to lay claim over the vast expanse of the South China Sea.

For the past five years, the presence of foreign vessels within what the Philippines considers its maritime areas has increased. The country’s fisheries bureau has classified Palawan’s western coast as a fisheries management area, within it the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in portions of the Spratly Islands identified as part of the Philippines’ continental shelf by The Hague ruling — areas mostly occupied by the Chinese military and its newly built bases.

Map of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea by the U.S. Department of State (2015), showing occupation by Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines. Image via Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain

Heat maps based on a technology called visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) show that the majority of boats roaming in this area are foreign fleets: if a boat has lighting equipment powerful enough to be picked up by VIIRS, it is almost certainly a large vessel or part of a major fishing fleet rather than belonging to an artisanal fisher.

In the Kalayaan island group, VIIRS detected about 59,000 boats in 2016. But foreign intrusion in the country’s western coast in 2019 went up to almost 133,000 boat detections. These figures, monitored by sources who do not wish to be named, reveal how much of poaching, commercial fishing legal or otherwise, or military patrolling have taken over the island’s spawning ground.

There have been reports of boats identified as those coming from Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and China — countries that also stake a claim to portions of the South China Sea — as well as from Japan, which appears to be more interested in catching tuna. The heat signatures, which appear as dots on a map, also significantly picked up the lights that were monitored pointed to Chinese vessels.

Such incursions have cost the Philippines billions of pesos in losses of its natural resources, something the Constitution says should be protected. Palawan alone has been unable to stop these, and with issues of national security, it is even more helpless, especially since President Duterte made a U-turn in Philippine foreign policy and started an open-arms policy with China when he was elected in 2016.

“We don’t want to go to war,” Duterte said repeatedly in various public speeches, casting aside incidents of Chinese fleets sinking the boats of artisanal fishers as “accidents” and downplaying reports of community fishers going hungry for being deprived access to the high seas.

Heat maps based on VIIRS technology show boat detections in the South China Sea. Map accessed through Karagatan Patrol

With the pandemic forcing the economy into a recession, the Philippines, like its neighbors in Southeast Asia, has turned to Beijing to aid its recovery despite growing local sentiments against China. Last October, Duterte lifted a six-year moratorium on mineral exploration in the South China Sea, potentially reopening a shuttered natural gas drilling deal between the Philippines, China and Vietnam.

What this coming plebiscite in Palawan might boil down to is a choice between cohesion and division. Palawan has had much to deal with in the past two decades; through those years it tried to keep its reputation of being the last frontier.

With the division, the task of protecting Palawan’s and the country’s maritime borders, already beset by politicking and resource limitations, will add more layers of jurisdiction and could potentially complicate coordination processes, groups say. Those against the law prefer the island together — to keep it from falling apart.

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Criselda Yabes is a prize-winning journalist and book author. Her latest book, The Battle of Marawi, explores the military strategies that brought an ISIS-inspired faction to its knees. 

Leilani Chavez is Mongabay’s staff writer in the Philippines.

Featured image: Islands of Coron in northern Palawan, Philippines, April 2008. Image by Patrick Kranzlmüller via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

All Global Research articles can be read in 27 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version).

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After the nuclear disaster at Fukushima, evacuees were put in what was supposed to be temporary housing built in parking lots and fields on the outskirts of inland towns. These metal structures were measured by the size of Japan’s traditional tatami sleeping mats, typically about 36 by 71 inches.

Takenori and Tomoko Kobayashi lived in an eight-tatami-mat house for the next five years—nuclear refugees inhabiting 132 square feet of living space.

In 2016, Mr. and Mrs. Kobayashi were allowed to return to their former home in Odaka, a village on the edge of Fukushima’s 20-kilometer exclusion zone, where Tomoko is a third-generation innkeeper. Owner of a small ryokan—a traditional Japanese hotel with common baths and a dining room holding a long table for family and guests—she invited volunteers to help her scrub down the inn, plant flowers along the roadside, open a gift shop, and rescue some of the area’s famous “samurai horses,” which are now branded with the white mark that labels radioactive livestock.

Fukushima horse with irradiated brand

A hostler at Mrs. Kobayashi’s stable shows the brand put on radioactive livestock in Fukushima prefecture. Image courtesy of Thomas A. Bass

This past September, the inn was full again with visitors such as my research assistant, Ms. Yuki Abe. (Due to COVID, non-citizens, even long-term visa holders, are not allowed into Japan.) They had come for the yearly festival that marks the fall planting of rape seed, a member of the mustard family that has the dual benefit of leeching cesium from the soil while producing uncontaminated canola oil, because cesium is not soluble in oil. The idea of replacing the area’s traditional rice-growing with rape seed was borrowed from Chernobyl—a place which the Kobayashis and many of their friends have visited, in an effort to learn how to live in a nuclear exclusion zone.

The Kobayashi family brought another important lesson back from Chernobyl. While his wife Tomoko had been bustling around her inn, Takenori opened a radiation testing lab in the nearby town of Minamisoma. With money raised on a TV telethon and donated labor and equipment, his laboratory welcomes anyone who comes in with soil samples or foraged mushrooms or even potentially contaminated food from the grocery store. “What we learned from Chernobyl is that you have to measure everything and keep measuring,” Takenori says. Chernobyl got a 25-year head start on Fukushima, but living with nuclear disasters and their long-term effects is still a work in progress. Despite the official government spin that everything is back to normal—indeed, Japan is touting the upcoming Olympic games as the so-called “Recovery Olympics”—life in Fukushima is far from normal.

The torch for the 2020 Olympics—delayed for a year by the coronavirus pandemic but still called the “2020 Olympics”—is scheduled to be lit on March 25, 2021, at what is known as J-Village, the Japan Football Association Academy for training soccer players.

J-Village lies 12 miles south of Fukushima Daiichi, where this March also marks something else: the 10th anniversary of the meltdown of three of the six nuclear reactors at the generating complex known as Fukushima Number 1, or F1. The reactors started melting down and exploding on March 11, 2011, after the 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake sent a 130-foot wave racing at 500 miles per hour—the speed of a jet plane—toward Japan’s eastern coast, killing more than 18,000 people, according to the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.

Already damaged by the earthquake and emitting high levels of radiation before the tsunami arrived, F1 was finished off by flood waters that destroyed its backup generators and cooling systems. As the reactors began exploding, authorities made F1 the center of a nuclear exclusion zone that stretched up to 60 miles inland—depending on where the winds and rains deposited the damaged plant’s emissions of cesium, plutonium, strontium, iodine 131, and other radioactive elements. One hundred and sixty thousand people were evacuated from Fukushima’s nuclear exclusion zone; 10 years later, most of them—unlike the Koybayashi family—are still displaced, their former homes forming part of an eerie landscape of abandoned villages filled with palm civets, monkeys, and other animals nesting in the urban ruins.

wild boar on streets of Fukushima

A wild boar on the streets of Namie, five miles north of Fukushima Daiichi, in 2015. Image courtesy of Yuki Iwanami

The operator of the plant, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, or TEPCO, evacuated its workers from F1 and ordered the site abandoned. The Japanese prime minister, in a dawn visit to TEPCO headquarters in Tokyo, effectively seized the company and demanded that they keep working. As a result, a suicide squad of older workers struggled to contain the disaster. Known as the “Fukushima Fifty” (which actually numbered 69) they tried to cool the reactors with fire trucks brought from Tokyo, 140 miles to the south. The command center for managing the disaster was moved to J-Village.

No one can say with 100-percent certainty the amount of radiation that came from Fukushima, since most of this radiation has been carried eastward into the ocean. At the high end, Fukushima may be worse than Chernobyl in terms of global contamination. At the low end, the Nuclear Energy Institute estimates that Fukushima’s release is one-tenth that of the accident at Chernobyl—which is estimated to have scattered between 50 and 200 million curies of radiation over Russia and Central Europe says Kate Brown, the MIT historian who published a book on Chernobyl in 2019. (One curie equals 37 billion becquerels, the standard unit of measurement for radioactive decays per second.) To give a sense of scale, this amount of radiation is the equivalent of what would have been emitted by at least 400 Hiroshima bombs, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. As Nobel laureate Kenzaburō Ōe says of the Fukushima disaster, unlike Hiroshima and Nagasaki, this time Japan bombed itself.

Compounding the problem, most of Fukushima’s dosimeters were swept away in the flood or knocked offline. Readings from US military planes flying overhead and ships sailing offshore differed dramatically from those reported by TEPCO. The same is true for spot readings of air and soil samples around the plant.

What we know about nuclear disasters at Chernobyl, Fukushima, and elsewhere comes primarily from modelling what is known as the “source term”—the types and amounts of radioactive material that were in a reactor’s core and then released to the environment by an accident. These models are revised as we learn more about the prevailing winds and other factors but are still only models; ideally, one wants to examine the reactors’ cores themselves. Unfortunately, even 10 years later, no one can get close to Fukushima’s reactor cores, and we do not even know precisely where they are located. As recently as December 2020, Japan’s Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) announced “extremely serious” developments at Fukushima that were far worse than previously thought, the Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported. TEPCO had discovered that the massive shield plugs covering the reactors were emitting 10 Sieverts of radiation per hour—a lethal dose for humans (though it should be noted that reactor cores are normally examined by robots, unless these, too, are destroyed by radiation). Because Fukushima now has more contaminated material at higher doses than previously estimated, “this will have a huge impact on the whole process of decommissioning work,” said NRA chairman Toyoshi Fuketa.

The effective dose of radiation required to sicken or kill you is measured in Sieverts, a unit named after Rolf Sievert, the Swedish physicist who first calibrated the lethal effects of radioactive energy. A dose of 0.75 Sieverts will produce nausea and a weakened immune system. (Sieverts are used to measure the relative biological damage done to the human body, while becquerels and curies are units that describe the amount of radiation emitted by radioactive material.)

A dose of 10 Sieverts will kill you, if absorbed all at once.

A dose somewhere in-between 0.75 and 10 Sieverts gives you a fifty-fifty chance of dying within 30 days.

Guidelines for workers in the nuclear industry limit the maximum yearly dose to 0.05 Sieverts, or 50 milliSieverts—the equivalent of five CT scans, says Harvard Health Publishing. (This is a high figure compared to the 1 milliSievert per year that is considered acceptable for the general public; a physicist familiar with the industry explained that the thinking is that workers in the nuclear energy industry are implicitly being paid to take on the risk.)

So how many Sieverts are currently being produced by Fukushima’s melted reactors? The latest reading from reactor No. 2 is 530 Sieverts per hour. This means that every hour the heart of the reactor is emitting more than 10,000 times the yearly allowable dose for radiation workers.

F1’s reactors are still radioactively hot. They are lethal to humans who approach them and even the robots sent to explore the melting cores are quickly fried; in 2017, TEPCO lost two robots in two weeks. But some of the nuclear exclusion zone has been re-opened—at least officially—to resettlement, and the Japanese government is paying two million yen (about $20,000) to people who move into the area.

Ouside the core but still in the zone. An army of about 100,000 workers has spent a decade scraping up and bagging radioactively contaminated soil. Consequently, what were once the emerald green rice paddies of Fukushima’s coastal plain are now filled with black plastic garbage bags holding mountains of radioactive dirt.

Aerial view bags of radioactive soil Fukushima

Drone photo giving an aerial view of some of the black plastic garbage bags containing radioactive soil from the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Some of the piles of bags are about five or six layers high, and cover several acres—as can be seen by the relatively small size of the adjacent trucks and heavy equipment. Image courtesy of Andreasz Podniesinski

After a lighting ceremony at J-Village, the Olympic torch will be run for three days through Fukushima’s nuclear exclusion zone. The zone is now a checkerboard of remediated areas and other places that are closed off behind accordion fences. Japan hopes to focus our attention on the refurbished schools and town halls, re-opened train stations, and two new museums that have been built in Fukushima, while trying to keep the TV cameras away from the ruined houses and radioactive cars lying nearby. The torch will then be run to Fukushima City, 40 miles to the northwest, where the first six Olympic games in softball and baseball are scheduled to be played after the games officially open July 23.

But is it safe to promote Japan’s so-called “recovery” by sending athletes into a nuclear exclusion zone? The area has been tidied up and dotted with LED monitors showing the latest cesium releases from F1, comparable to the devices that measure airborne radiation levels found in other parts of the world. But these airborne releases are only part of the story—and not the most worrisome part. In 2013, scientists discovered that Fukushima’s exploding reactors had showered Japan with microparticles, or little glassy beads, of radioactive cesium and uranium. Hot spots from these microparticles can be found in vacuum cleaner bags and automobile air filters as far away as Tokyo. Fukushima prefecture is full of radioactive hot spots, and these hot spots keep moving as microparticles are washed down from the forested mountains that make up 70 percent of the prefecture, researchers said in Nature Scientific Reports.

In 2019, a survey conducted for Greenpeace found hot spots in the J-Village parking lot, where children participating in a youth soccer match were eating their lunch. Greenpeace measured radiation levels at over 71 microSieverts per hour (one microSievert is one-millionth of a Sievert, or one-thousandth of a milliSievert)—1,775 times higher than the normal reading in this area before the Fukushima disaster of about 0.04 microSieverts per hour. The elevated reading, which translates to roughly about 0.62 Sieverts over the course of a year, meant that anyone breathing dust from the J-Village playing fields could be ingesting radioactive particles—little death stars lighting the way to cancer and genetic mutation. Since then, researchers have found radioactive hot spots at the Azuma baseball stadium in Fukushima City and all along the route to be run by the Olympic torch bearers.

Ground view bags radioactive soil Fukushima

File photo of workers stacking bags of soil collected during Fukushima’s so-called decontamination and cleanup operations, a few months after the accident. Image courtesy of Ricardo Herrgott/Global 2000.

This casual attitude toward radiation is widespread. “We found a disregard for global trends and a disregard for public safety,” said the parliamentary report on the Fukushima disaster, known as The Official Report of The Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission. “Across the board, the commission found ignorance and arrogance unforgivable for anyone or any organization that deals with nuclear power,” the report’s authors concluded.

They went on to note: “What must be admitted—very painfully—is this was a disaster ‘Made in Japan.’ ”

If Japan covered up the risks involved in building 54 nuclear reactors on its geologically unstable shores, it is now covering up the consequences. A government-sponsored study of radiation exposure in Fukushima prefecture undercounted people’s exposure by two-thirds. Australian physician Tilman Ruff, co-founder of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (which won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize), wrote me to say that doctors have left the area because the government refuses to reimburse them when they list radiation sickness as the cause for nose bleeds, spontaneous abortions, and other ailments resulting from ionizing radiation. (The only acceptable diagnoses are so-called “radiophobia,” nervousness, and stress.) The spike in thyroid cancer among children in Fukushima is dismissed as a survey error, produced by examining too many children.

The government has mounted no epidemiological study in Fukushima. It has established no baseline for comparing public health before and after the disaster. Instead, it has greenlighted the use of radioactive ash and soil from Fukushima in construction projects throughout the country, the Japan Times reported.

The generally accepted safety standard for radiation exposure is one milliSievert, or one-thousandth of a Sievert, per year. Different countries have different standards, but in the United States, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires that the operators of nuclear power plants limit the amount of their incidental radiation exposure to individual members of the public to 1 milliSievert (1,000 microSieverts) per year above the average annual background radiation, and this figure has become a sort of rough international average benchmark. (For comparison’s sake, the natural level of background radiation usually averages in the range of up to as much as 3 milliSieverts annually.)

But in its haste to deal with the Fukushima emergency in the months after the accident, the Japanese government simply raised the limit of what was considered an acceptable amount of incidental radiation coming from the now-defunct nuclear power plant. The Japanese government now allows individuals in Fukushima prefecture to be exposed to 20 milliSieverts per year of incidental radiation, above and beyond what was emitted naturally, reported Scientific American. Figures like these are a far cry from that international average benchmark of 1 milliSievert annually.

To give a sense of scale, a figure in the 20 milliSieverts range means that a schoolchild in Fukushima can be exposed to the same amount of radiation as the average adult working full-time in a nuclear power plant.

The limit in the rest of Japan, outside of Fukushima’s environs, remains 1 milliSievert per year.

21st-century versions of hibakusha, or “bomb-affected people”? Anyone objecting to Fukushima’s 20-fold increase in allowable radiation exposure is criticized for promoting “harmful rumors.” After China and 50 other countries banned the importation of food from Fukushima on the grounds that it might be radioactive, the Japanese authorities reacted vehemently, and critics of the Japanese government’s response to the handling of anything related to Fukushima were treated like economic saboteurs. Similarly, refugees from Fukushima are scorned in other parts of Japan, and the Asahi Shimbunreported “widespread bullying and stigmatization of evacuees.” This finding was echoed by the UK newspaper The Independent, which said that “discrimination suffered by evacuee pupils [is] likened to that faced by those who lived through the atom bomb blasts of the Second World War.”

Women from Fukushima are shunned as marriage partners, and a new kind of Fukushima divorce has emerged, with men returning to the area in greater numbers than their wives, who want to keep their children as far away as possible.

“Japan has clamped down on scientific efforts to study the nuclear catastrophe,” said Alex Rosen, a pediatrician who co-chairs the German affiliate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. “There is hardly any literature, any publicized research, on the health effects on humans, and those that are published come from a small group of researchers at Fukushima Medical University, which are centered around the scientist Shunichi Yamashita, who in Japan is called ‘Mr. 100 milliSieverts.’ ” (Yamashita was the spokesman for the Japanese government in the early months of the catastrophe and led the Fukushima health survey for two years, before being forced to resign in 2013. Contradicting his earlier research and instructions to his own staff, Yamashita told the public that 100 milliSieverts of radiation was harmless. He recommended against administering iodine pills to prevent thyroid cancer, and told people that their best protection against radiation poisoning was literally to smile and be happy.)

Image courtesy of Pixabay

Four thousand people continue to labor daily to contain the ongoing disaster at F1. They pump cooling water into reactor cores and fuel pools, while struggling to keep the damaged buildings from collapsing. More than a billion liters of contaminated water—the equivalent of 480 Olympic-sized swimming pools—are stored on-site in rusting tanks. Claiming that it has run out of storage room, TEPCO is planning to release this water directly into the ocean. For years, TEPCO maintained that the water stored at F1 had been scrubbed of radioactivity, save for tritium, a water-soluble isotope that is said to be relatively safe. In 2014, TEPCO was forced to admit that its cleaning process had failed, and Fukushima’s cooling water is actually contaminated with high levels of strontium-90 and other radioactive elements.

From the day it opened, Fukushima Daiichi struggled to contain the groundwater that rushed down from the nearby mountains and flowed through the plant. Fukushima today is a swamp of groundwater and cooling water contaminated with strontium, tritium, cesium, and other radioactive particles. Engineers have laced the site with ditches, dams, sump pumps, and drains. In 2014, TEPCO was given $292 million in public funds to ring Fukushima with an underground ice wall—a supposedly impermeable barrier of frozen soil. This, too, has failed, having “limited, if any effect,” Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority said.

In 2019, the Japan Institute for Economic Research estimated that the cost of cleaning up the Fukushima disaster could reach $747 billion. But there is actually no such thing as saying that a nuclear disaster has been cleaned up. Lumps of radioactive fuel, concrete, and cladding remain lethal for tens of thousands of years. At Chernobyl, this lava-like mass, called the “Elephant’s Foot,” has been buried under a mountain of concrete and covered again by a second, $1.5 billion shield financed by the European Union, which some have dubbed the “sarcophagus.” Sensitive about looking like a failed nuclear power, Japan has vetoed the building of a similar concrete sarcophagus over Fukushima. Instead, relying upon technology yet to be invented, TEPCO plans to scoop up the fuel in its failed reactors and store the waste in some undisclosed location. In the meantime, Fukushima sits like an open wound on Japan’s eastern shore.

The takeaway? Among the new buildings meant to lure settlers back to Fukushima are two museums. In Tamioka, directly to the south of the power plant, a former energy museum has been converted into something called the Decommissioning Archive Center. Films depict actors replaying scenes from the disaster on one floor of the museum and demonstrate TEPCO’s “Progress of the Work” on another floor.

In the village of Futaba, directly to the north of the reactors, the government has erected a three-story building called The Great East Japan Earthquake and Nuclear Disaster Memorial Museum. A former boomtown filled with workers from the plant, Futaba used to have an archway over its main street, declaring, in bold letters, “Atomic Power: Energy for a bright future.” Yuji Onuma created this slogan for a ninth-grade homework assignment. He received a prize from the mayor.

Now living far from Fukushima and running a business installing solar panels, Onuma returned to Futaba one day a few years after the disaster. A photo from that visit shows him wearing a white Tyvek suit, booties, hat, and facemask. Behind him is Futaba’s main street, filled with crumbling buildings and overgrown with weeds. Above him is the archway that TEPCO financed. Over his head, Onuma holds a placard with red-letter writing on it, so the sign instead reads, “Atomic Power: Energy for a destructive future.”

The archway has since been removed and stored in Futaba’s new museum. Onuma wants it reinstalled, where the irony of having his slogan floating over the ruins of a dead city will remind everyone of their original mistake. At the least, he wants the sign put on display in the museum. “I made the wrong slogan,” he recently told an American interviewer. “But I’m glad that I realized my mistake before I died.”

cremated ashes Fukushima urn

Yuji Onuma and his wife, Serina, wearing traditional mourning suits and holding the ashes of his aunt, outside the entrance to the village of Futaba. Evacuated after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, she died alone in a refugee camp in October 2013; it was two weeks before her body was discovered. The Onumas are carrying her urn to the family grave in Futaba; because it lies in the nuclear exclusion zone, the cemetery can be visited only by special permission. Visitors must wear Tyvek suits and dosimeters, like the one that Mrs. Onuma is wearing around her neck. Photo courtesy of Yuji Onuma.

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Thomas A. Bass is the author of seven books, including The Eudaemonic Pie and The Predictors, as well as several books on Asia. A contributor to The New Yorker, Atlantic, Wired, and other publications, he is Professor of English and Journalism at the State University of New York in Albany.

Featured image: Yuji Onuma had come up with the slogan for the gate that orginally hung above the entrance to his home village of Futaba, north of the reactors at Fukushima. It said, “Atomic Power: Energy for a bright future.” After the disaster, he went back, with a new, handwritten correction in red, “Atomic Power: Energy for a DESTRUCTIVE future.” Image courtesy of Yuji Onuma

BrahMos Missile Would Give Manila Instant Clout

March 14th, 2021 by Dave Makichuk

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Last year, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, threw in the towel on the battle over territory in the South China Sea. Or did he?

According to The Eurasian Times, he insinuated it was better for Manila to pursue “diplomatic endeavors” with China over the dispute, because China had the military might.

The Philippines, of course, did not.

So why exactly, did India and the Philippines — specifically, Philippine defense undersecretary Raymund Elefante and Indian ambassador Shambu Kumaran — lay the groundwork for a secret deal to procure the deadly BrahMos missile?

As we know, the medium-range ramjet supersonic BrahMos cruise missile is a highly adaptable, effective weapon. One that would certainly make any threatening nation, ie. China, sit up and take notice.

An Indo-Russian joint venture, BrahMos, can be fired in inclined or vertical configurations from ships, submarines, aircraft and ground launchers.

Capable of hitting sea based targets beyond radar horizons, it’s the perfect weapon for a small nation, that wants to do a little sabre-rattling, without having to do the R&D.

Just uncrate, and fire — a Mach 3.5 monster of destruction.

Initial versions of the BrahMos go up to the range of 290 km, but last year India tested an extended range of around 400 kilometers, with more versions of higher ranges above 1,000 kilometers currently under development.

And let’s face it, whoever heard of a Filipino backing down from a fight? Does Manny Pacquaio ring a bell?

So what, exactly, is Duterte’s ultimate goal? Is he crazy, like the fox? Bowing to Beijing, and then quietly boosting the PI’s coastal defenses?

Is he stealing a page from Xi Jinping’s “Wolf Warrior” playbook — eyeing an endgame that is well down the road.

Or is this just a big mistake?

Some experts are slamming the deal, suggesting the country doesn’t even have the required infrastructure to ensure that purchases are maintained and manpower is trained to maintain the systems, Eurasian Times reported.

And even with BrahMos, experts point out that the country doesn’t have a budget to configure its combat ships to launch them.

While details of the procurement have not yet been revealed, New Delhi has reportedly offered a soft loan of US$100 million to Manila, to acquire the missiles, Eurasian Times reported.

If a formal deal is signed, the defense credit line may as well be extended, which will help the Philippines in the procurement, sources said.

The Southeast Asian nation is set to become the first buyer of BrahMos, part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision to expand defense exports, Eurasian Times reported.

Cruise missiles like BrahMos are a type of systems known as the “standoff range weapons” which are fired from a range sufficient to allow the attacker to evade defensive fire from the adversary.

BrahMos can even be launched from a submarine.

In March, 2013, this version was successfully tested at a depth of 50 metres from a submerged platform off the coast of Visakhapatnam, sources said.

The canister stored missile is launched vertically from the pressure hull of the submarine and uses different settings for underwater and out of the water flights.

In 2016, The Hague tribunal backed the Philippines in its case over the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

Bejing claims the entire South China Sea, stretching across 3.6 million square kilometers, as its territory.

The tribunal ruled that rocky outcrops claimed by China – some of which are exposed only at low tide – cannot be used as the basis of territorial claims, Eurasian Times reported.

“Some of the waters were within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines because those areas are not overlapped by any possible entitlement of China,” the ruling said.

It also found China in violation of the Philippines’ sovereign rights in those waters by interfering with its fishing and petroleum exploration and by constructing artificial islands.

However, China refused to accept the ruling and instead, has shown more aggressiveness in protecting its claims.

Meanwhile, Duterte’s “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program is well on its way, as the country attempts to achieve a rapid recovery — ironically, with the help of Beijing.

Chinese companies have signed two major construction contracts for a bridge link to Davao City in Mindanao and a cargo railway in Luzon.

The Subic-Clark railway project, which will cost approximately US$940 million, will be bank-rolled by China. It will also be the highest-funded G-to-G cooperation project between China and the Philippines so far.

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Featured image is from Asia Times

Eyes on China: The Quad Takes Scattered Aim

March 11th, 2021 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

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The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has had its fits and starts, but nothing encourages such chats than threats, actual or perceived.  In 2017, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono felt that it was time that a strategic dialogue between Japan, the United States, Australia and India should be revived.  The Quad, as it was termed, was on the way to becoming a more serious forum, having had its tentative origins in the cooperative efforts of the four countries in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami.  Formally launched in 2007, the initiative petered out. 

The evolution of such a forum typically begins at senior official level, followed by a ministerial upgrade. Levels of seniority get roped in until the leaders of the countries take the reins. But at its inception, brows creased in Beijing.  These were not, however, meant to reach the level of full blown frowns.   

The prospect of this somewhat misnamed “Asian NATO” was not to be taken too seriously, though officials in the Trump administration did contemplate a collective with teeth and persuasiveness.  In October 2020, then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was all about using the grouping to combat China.  “This is for the soul of the world.  This is about whether this will be a world that operates … on a rules-based international order system, or one that’s dominated by a coercive totalitarian regime like the one in China.”  At the time, Pompeo had to settle for a more mild-mannered proposal – that of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific – an idea advanced by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2016.

Nonetheless, the four powers have been painting a picture that will not find cheer in President Xi Jinping’s quarters.  At a press conference in September last year, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin, when asked about the government’s views on the upcoming October Quad meeting, curtly spoke of being against the “forming of exclusive cliques”.  The “targeting of third parties or undermining third parties’ interests” was surely less preferable to conducive cooperation towards “mutual understanding and trust between regional countries.” 

Last month, the Quad’s four foreign ministers met.  Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi described “candid talks about cooperation toward the free and open Indo-Pacific and on regional and global issues.”  US State Department spokesperson Ned Price noted in a statement that discussion also included “the priority of strengthening democratic resilience in the broader region” and maintaining “support for freedom of navigation and territorial integrity.”

The Biden administration is also making an effort to elevate the status of the Quad.  The president intends holding a virtual meeting on March 12 with the prime ministers of Japan, Australia and India.  White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki rolled out the now frequent message that such meetings demonstrated Biden’s keenness to take allies and partnerships seriously.  According to the press secretary, topics to be discussed will include “the threat of COVID”, “economic cooperation” and the “climate crisis”.  Only the dimmest of dolts could avoid the prospect that China would not come up in the virtual chat feast.

A senior administration was more forthcoming in telling Reuters that, “This sends a very strong signal of common cause and purpose.  And the goal here is basically to introduce the Quad as a new feature of regular diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific.”  Similarly, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison spoke of the Quad becoming “a feature of Indo-Pacific engagement,” a gathering of “four leaders four countries” and not “a big bureaucracy with a big secretariats”.  And just to make the point of a counterweight to Chinese power clear, without naming Beijing, Morrison envisaged the arrangement as an “anchor of peace and stability in the region”.

Each of the nations, however, have their individual differences in how to deal with China.  Australia remains obsessed with foreign interference and Chinese moves into regional Pacific politics, piggy backing on US power in order to stem that influence.  Japan considers good relations with China important, while still happy to concede ground to the US as being the dominant Asian-Pacific power.

India remains the most cautious participant. Its foreign policy harks back to the days of non-alignment maintained during the Cold War.  Unlike Japan and Australia, there is no fondness for the idea of having one dominant bully in the playground, dressed up in the clothing of strategic primacy.  But its relationship with China remains fractious.  The border dispute in the Himalayan region, which also features a competition to build infrastructure, turned bloody in June 2020 in a Galwan Valley clash that left over 20 Indian soldiers dead.  Accusations about provocations by both sides have been traded with increasing frequency since last year, with a mutual disengagement between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army from disputed points yet to take place.

In November 2020, New Delhi invited Australia to participate in the annually held Malabar naval exercises, frequented by US and Japan.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemed to be turning.  This week, India confirmed that he would be attending the virtual conference, with the Ministry of External Affairs revealing that discussions would cover the ground traversed by the foreign ministers in February.  “The leaders will discuss regional and global issues of shared interest, and exchange views on practical areas of cooperation towards maintaining a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region.”

Despite much common ground, the prospects of the Quad flowering into a security arrangement that will ring-fence China seem unlikely.  Provocative as it may well be, the more measured sages in Beijing will consider the differences between the four powers and deal with each of them accordingly.  The cannier ones might even choose to manipulate them.       

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Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research. Email: [email protected]

Featured image is from Wikimedia Commons

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“Birds might fall as they’re not strong since there’s no more trees standing.”

This is how Jemris Nikolas characterizes the response of many in Sorong, a district in Indonesia’s easternmost region of Papua, to the deforestation unfolding in their area.

Jemris is an environmental activist based in Papua, home to the last great expanse of rainforest in Southeast Asia. Indonesia’s commodities boom of recent decades — from palm oil to coal to pulpwood —razed much of the forests on the western islands of Sumatra and Borneo. Now, those same industries are moving into Papua, where authorities have issued licenses that could result in the clearing of an area the size of Sydney.

That’s the finding from a new report by a coalition of 11 NGOs in Indonesia, which shows that most of the 1.1 million hectares (2.7 million acres) of natural forest that the government has authorized for clearing will be converted into oil palm plantations.

These licenses are known as forest conversion permits, which are required by law to allow plantations and infrastructure projects to be established in forest areas.

Dedy Sukmara, a researcher at the environmental NGO Auriga, a member of the coalition, said the issuance of these permits effectively legitimizes large-scale forest clearing.

“According to the law, this is legal deforestation,” he said.

And this could spell disaster for the region’s wildlife and plants. Papua’s forests are among the most biodiverse on Earth, home to at least 20,000 plant species, 602 birds, 125 mammals and 223 reptiles.

Historically, the issuance of forest conversion licenses has been followed to a small extent by deforestation, but new regulations could mean an even higher rate of clearing. From 1992 to 2019, the government issued such licenses for 1.57 million hectares (3.8 million acres) of forest areas, of which 1.3 million hectares (3.2 million acres) were for plantations. As of 2019, 11% of the 1.3 million hectares had been deforested, accounting for nearly a third of all deforestation in Papua, totaling 663,443 hectares (1.6 million acres), over the past two decades.

Under new regulations that set a tighter deadline for when license holders must start cultivating on their land, companies would be compelled to clear their concessions sooner or face punishment, Dedy said.

“The recipients of the forest conversion licenses [are perceived to] not perform when they don’t utilize [their permits],” he said. “This shows the potential of a spike in deforestation in Papua in the next few years considering that there are many natural forests in the region that have been released [for plantations] and these [forests] are very threatened.”

In response to the NGOs’ report, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry released its own data showing there are at least 1.26 million hectares (3.1 million acres) of natural forests remaining in the areas that have already been earmarked for plantations as of January 2021.

These forests have remained largely intact, with only 2,645 hectares (6,536 acres) of deforestation identified by the ministry by January 2021.

The ministry said it monitors this trend as part of wider efforts following up on a 2018 government moratorium on issuing new permits for oil palm plantations. The moratorium was imposed to improve the sustainability of the industry, and also calls for a review of existing permits.

The ministry said the monitoring by the central government is especially important because there have been no recommendations from local governments to revoke forest conversion permits in areas that are still forested.

“The ministry continues to monitor deforestation, whether through satellite-based monitoring or through field observation in certain levels, on the 1.26 million hectares of natural forests that are still spread in the areas zoned to be converted into oil palm plantations [in Papua],” it said in a press statement.

The island of New Guinea is split between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

Call for action

Mufthi Fathul Barri, a researcher with Forest Watch Indonesia (FWI), another member of the NGO coalition, said monitoring alone is not enough to make sure the natural forests in the areas already licensed remain intact.

“It seems like the [monitoring] efforts by the ministry are merely to prevent deforestation from happening in the current administration, not to protect the remaining natural forests,” he told Mongabay. “These [efforts] will go to waste if, in the end, areas that have been licensed will be converted” to oil palm plantations.

In addition to a freeze on new oil palm permits and review of existing permits, the government should enforcing the law on violating companies and recognize the rights of local communities and Indigenous peoples, Mufthi said. He cited the Tanah Merah mega plantation project in Papua’s Boven Digoel district, a deforestation hotspot, as a litmus test for the ministry and the oil palm plantation moratorium.

The Tanah Merah site, earmarked mostly for oil palm, could on its own lead to the clearing of up to 280,000 hectares (692,000 acres) of rainforest — an area nearly twice the size of New York City.

But the multibillion-dollar project has been mired in a litany of controversies, with a 2018 investigation by Mongabay and The Gecko Project showing how permits were issued by an official in jail on corruption charges; Indigenous peoples were coerced into relinquishing the rights to their ancestral lands; and the true identities of the individuals behind the project were concealed behind fake nominees and shell companies in tax havens.

In 2019, allegations emerged that fake licenses had been issued to some of the operators involved in the project.

Officials from the Papua provincial investment agency also alleged that permits for the seven concessions at the Tanah Merah site were falsified at a critical stage of the licensing process. While the permits bore the signature of the former head of the agency, he has reported in writing that it was forged. The allegations were uncovered in a follow-up investigation by Mongabay and The Gecko Project.

In 2016, Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar referred to the project, though not by name, when discussing the progress of the ministry’s review of licenses in Papua.

“Several of our findings indicate that in areas where forest release permits have been granted since 2011 in Papua, nothing has been done there and they are simply land banks,” she said in a statement on the ministry’s website. “We even found that some of these permits have been traded. For example, seven forest release permits for palm oil development in that province, amounting to almost 300,000 hectares [741,000 acres], were sold to a number of business groups in Malaysia.”

Siti added that these trades involved 20% of the areas that should have been allocated for local communities.

Given the number of investigations already done into the project, and with the minister’s own acknowledgement of its maladministration, Mufthi said there’s no reason for the ministry to not take further action.

“The case has been ongoing since 2014, and if the ministry is being proactive, then the case shouldn’t lie dormant like this,” he said. “It’s clear that the permits issued in Papua were used as land banking, and there’s a regulation that bans people from selling permits that have been issued. And yet, trading of shares continue to happen, just like the Tanah Merah case.”

To follow up on the Tanah Merah case and address the loopholes that have allowed it to happen in the first place, the ministry doesn’t have to wait for recommendations from local governments, Mufthi said.

“Because not all officials in Papua understand these processes,” he said. “So not all [actions] have to be based on local governments’ recommendations.”

Rainforest in Boven Digoel district, Papua.

More moratorium

To protect forests for which conversion permits have already been issued after the moratorium expires at the end of this year, the government should impose a blanket ban on the clearance of all natural forests, regardless of whether permits have been issued or not, said Dedy from Auriga.

The government in 2011 did issue a moratorium on clearing primary forests and peatlands, which was made permanent in 2019. But it doesn’t cover secondary forests, defines as those where there has been some degree of human activity, but which also host a large proportion of Indonesia’s remaining natural forests, with high levels of biodiversity and tree cover.

An analysis by the environmental NGO Madani shows there are at least 9.5 million hectares (23.5 million acres) of natural forests that aren’t covered by the moratorium, of which only 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) consist of primary forests that were licensed out before the moratorium came into force.

“[To] protect remaining natural forests in Papua, including the ones in concessions, the moratorium has to include all natural forests in Indonesia, not only in Papua,” Dedy said.

The forestry ministry said it had identified natural forests with high conservation value (HCV) and high carbon stock (HCS) in Papua in an effort to protect them. According to the ministry, these areas may be classified as conservation forests in the future, which would protect them from deforestation.

Belinda Arunarwati Margono, the ministry’s director of forest resource monitoring, acknowledged that there are secondary forests that are nearly as pristine as primary forests. But she said it’s not possible, due to “technical difficulties,” to include them in the moratorium.

“Our technology is not accurate enough to separate different types of secondary forests, whether they’re in good, medium or bad [conditions],” Belinda said last year. “We’re busy finding methodology and testing to separate secondary forests. We also want to include secondary forests that are still in good condition in the moratorium map, but we can’t do that yet.”

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Featured image: Dumpy Tree Frog (Litoria caerulea) in West Papua province, Indonesia. Image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.

India’s Farmers Resistance Movement. Repeal the Three Farm Laws

March 8th, 2021 by National Alliance of People’s Movements

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6th March, 2021: The historic and globally recognized farmers’ movement, which entered into an electrifying phase with the ‘Delhi Chalo’ Call on 26th Nov, completes 100 days today. The movement continues to challenge the notorious ‘Three Farm Acts’ that would herald unprecedented levels of corporate control over agriculture, nullifying the mandi system, diminishing the significance of the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) and opening up the possibility of alienation of farmlands to big corporations. Landowning farmers, marginal farmers and agricultural workers, in particular women across all categories, stand to lose by these laws. In addition, this will lead to a general increase of dominance of big corporates such as the Adanis and Ambanis over rural governance and agriculture, enhancing the already existing “Company Raj”.

For more than 7 months, the entire nation witnessed farmers across the country on the streets, raising their voice against these laws that would permanently jeopardize their already precarious situation and also eventually disband the public distribution system (PDS). Diverse sections of civil society and concerned citizens extended support at many places. The farmers and farm workers of Punjab, a state which not only thrives on agriculture but also one that has a long history of farmer unionism have been leading since Day 1.

Under the leadership of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, consisting of over five hundred farmers’ organizations across the country, along with the All India Kisan Sangharsh Co-ordination Committee (AIKSCC), the farmers arrived at the borders of Delhi in late November, with thousands of tractors from Punjab. They staged historic sit-ins at Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur throughout the cold winter months. The farmers have also staged roadblocks and rail blockades, peacefully and democratically to communicate their points to the largely unresponsive government and the middle-class power holders in India’s cities.

However, the Govt., continuing its anti-people and authoritarian approach, refused to listen to the farmers who complained that they were never consulted in the process of enactment of these laws, despite being the primary stakeholders. The Govt, its right-wing affiliates and lapdog media houses made multiple attempts to vilify the farmers’ movement, spread fake narratives, clamp down on the protest, inflict injury, undertake arrests etc. The Centre even imposed a de facto economic and transportation blockage of Punjab. However, none of these modes of repression worked in the face of the tremendous resistance of the farming-toiling class.

With their increased participation and leadership, the women farmers and elderly farmers also gave a befitting reply to the disparaging and misogynist comments by that CJI, asking why they were ‘kept’ in the protest. The central role played by women farmers in keeping the movement alive at the borders of Delhi, in the villages of Punjab and elsewhere is awe-inspiring.

Over the months, the movement snowballed across the length and breadth of the country, intensifying the demand for a complete repeal of the three Farm Acts and the Electricity Bill, calling for a legally guaranteed MSP for all crops, for slashing of diesel prices and the implementation of the Swaminathan Committee Report (in particular C2+50). The government’s refusal to accept the farmers’ demands, despite repeated meetings, eventually strengthened the struggle and over the last two months, the movement took wings throughout Western Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Rajasthan. Multiple maha-panchayats and rallies have been convened, in which lakhs of people participated, with the inspiring presence of women in some of them. Today, the protestors have blocked major roads leading to Delhi and resolved to continue their struggle till the demands are met.

As we extend our solidarity, we deeply appreciate the historic achievements of the movement so far. Within Punjab, it has been able to galvanize the non-farming sections and create a region-wide political churning against centralized pro-corporate Hindutva rule. The movement has brought back the “farmer” at the heart of the political discourse, as a category of people pitted against corporate rule. This is an important achievement in times when we stand in real danger of Hindutva-corporate rule being normalized.

Unsurprisingly, and significantly, such a political process has promised to heal the religious polarization in Western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had engineered through communal riots in 2013, from which it had reaped massive electoral benefits. The Govt was also forced to enter into multiple rounds of consultations with the farm unions, although it was never sincere in its commitment to understand and address the core issues. The pressure from the movement made the Govt announce shelving of the Electricity Amendment Bill and the Ordinance to ‘Check Air Quality Deterioration in NCR’, which sought to impose heavy fines on the farmers. Even the Supreme Court had to take cognizance of the protests and stayed away from interfering with the farmers’ right to agitate peacefully.

Recently, the movement has been able to enlist the support of several non-BJP political parties and the central trade unions – by extending solidarity to the latter’s stance against the Labour Codes – and joined the No Vote to BJP Campaign that has been going on in election-bound Bengal. In other words, the farmers’ movement has moved towards building a cross section social movement and weaved alliances with social movements, trade unions and political parties, in order to throw up a potent political opposition to the BJP’s anti-federal, Hindutva/corporate rule.

NAPM salutes all the farmers of the country and in particular those camping at Delhi for 100 days, braving the biting cold and the cold-hearted government. We respectfully remember each of the 248 farmers whose lives were lost in the past few months, only because of this callous regime. We firmly believe that it is high time the entire nation stood resolutely by the farmers who are fighting a crucial battle for the present and the future generations.

In solidarity,

National Alliance of People’s Movements (NAPM)

For further details, write to [email protected]

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March 5, 2021 marks the 100th Day of the sit-in of more than half a million farmers and workers and it is indeed an unthinkable affair compared to farmers’ movements that happened in the recent past. It will not be irrelevant if we probe a little bit of history to understand its uniqueness.

In the past, we have seen bigger and longer peasants’ struggle. In the late 1940s like the glorious Telangana and Tebhaga movements which continued for years. But, in the 1980s, the revolutionary peasants’ movement subsided or was subsiding (except some flares, e.g., in some districts of undivided Bihar, Andhra and some pockets of Punjab too); whereas various ‘national’ movements were rising — like the Assam movement in Assam from late 1970s, the Jharkand movement, the Punjab movement or Khalistan movement, which based itself at first on the 1973 Ananpur Sahib Resolutions, the Gorkhaland movement, the Boroland movement, etc). From that decade we have been seeing a different kind of Farmers movement. Those movements were led by the capitalist landlords (a good term coined by prof. Utsa Patnaik) and rich peasants and served the interest of these classes and stratum. We saw different kinds of slogans (related to remunerative prices of crops / higher MSP, and lower inputs prices / input-subsidy). We also saw different forms of movement (rasta-roko, rail-roko, along with sit-in/seize/satyagraha etc, naturally which were not like transport workers strike or 1974 railway-strike). All those started in a big way in 1983 Nashik Movement led by Sharad Joshi and then, Mahendra Singh Tikait of BKU carried the baton. Btw, these ‘roko’ forms also entered toiling peoples’ movement as a ‘last resort’ to make the deaf govt. administration hear the voices of workers or for some urgent local demands, for example the Kanpur Cotton Textile workers conducted their famous 5-day rail roko 1989, and we also saw many such rail/road blockades in WB when factory workers suddenly found their factory was locked out. Anyway, under Mahendra Singh Tikait’s leadership we saw very long protests: 77-day Ghaziabad protest in 1992, 1-month seize of Lucknow in the same year, 110 days Rajabpur Satyagraha, to mention a few.  Demands were: more compensation for land, cheaper electricity, fertiliser subsidy, higher MSP, loan waiver etc.

This very scrappy and sketchy ‘history’ points to transition of peasant- movement to ‘farmers movement’ mainly in the interest of capitalist landlords and rich peasants, which got increasingly focused to two demands: (1) remunerative prices (Swaminathan Commission recommendation = 150% of cost of production) and (2) Farm Loan Waiver. The very decorative movements of recent years, like the CPIM of AIKS led Nashik to Mumbai Kisan Long March in 2018, the BKU (Tikait) led Kisan Kranti Yatra of 2018, the 2018 Dilli Chalo by Yogendra Yadav led umbrella body AIKSCC, the much-hyped 2017 Tamil Nadu Farmers protest in Delhi by an organisation which supports the crazy idea of River-Linkage, all fall in this category. Why these protests, even the CPIM led Maharashtra Long March also serves interest of capitalist landlords and rich peasants and are UNABLE TO SERVE the interests of poor and middle peasants is a different question and it was dealt with in several articles by this author like “There are ‘farmers’ and farmers” in Countercurrents, Apr 13, 2018. Everybody of those parties and organisations comfortably forgot the question of increasing wages of agricultural labourers, the question of land to the landless, anti-usury movement and all such ‘old-fashioned’ words that were still in vogue in the 1970s.

But what started mainly in Punjab villages in August-September 2020 and converged to Delhi border points (Singhu and Tikri) on Nov 26, 2020 and their continuing protest for 100 days at a stretch, including a Tractor Rally in Delhi on Jan-26, and which is continuing even after death of more than 260 fighters and arrest of hundreds… is really a unique one. Here, the demand that came in the forefront is repealing the three agriculture laws enacted by the govt, this got more highlight than the demand of MSP as was proved by several rounds of talks between farmer leaders and govt. negotiators. The farmers organisations want nothing short of total repeal of these three agricultural laws.

There are some important points:

(1) These three Agri-laws are not only totally anti-peasant (poor, middle, rich peasants) and anti-farmer (farmer in the sense that who owns and operates/manages a farm depending on labourers), but also against all toiling people, as the Law 3 implementation will increase prices of essential commodities (outside the new govt. definition of essential commodities).

(2) Moreover, the movement to repeal these laws is definitely a movement against corporatisation and also anti-imperialist (by defying the W.B.-I.M.F. dictum for agriculture). No political parties that enjoyed governmental power or vie to enjoy that (including the CPI, CPIM etc lefts parties) cannot and did not do any ‘movement’ in real sense that may hurt interests of foreign and/or desi corporate bodies or foreign and desi capitalists.

(3) ‘Luckily’ the present movement could not be controlled by such political parties; the farmers unions and labourers’ bodies independent of those conceived this movement and are the main driving force of this movement. They are in control of this movement.

(4) Farmers and labourers of many states like Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Western-UP, Uttarakhand now control large farmer-labourer assembled forces at different borders. Of course, there are also some from Maharashtra, but anyway, leaders like Hanna Molla of CPIM or Yogendra Yadav of Swaraj party are not able to dominate or rein in the movement.

(5) BKU (Tikait) and likeminded unions also made this demand, repeal of farm laws, their central demand, and did not insist on focusing Swaminathan Recommendation and loan waiver like they did in their previous movements.

(6) Moreover, this movement could bring some changes in the BKU fractions mainly working in western Uttar Pradesh. For example – Tikait openly confessed that supporting BJP was a big mistake; many Mahapanchayats were organised each attended by thirty to fifty thousand villagers where the leaders promised to distance themselves from BJP; they confessed that making anti-Muslim riot was a very big mistake and they will never do it again; talks of unity cutting across castes and religions were there, the ‘identity’ of toiling people resurfaced, that ‘identity’ for which they can feed themselves, their family members and all non-farm people of the country.  It is indeed heartening to see Hindu-Muslim Unity resurfacing at such places in the Yogi-Raj where the soil was blood-stained by notorious anti-Muslim pogroms. Previously we have seen Punjab-Haryana Unity, Sikh-Hindu Unity were forged to smash the govt. plan to divide the movement in the January days. How a struggle can change minds, how a struggle can teach!

One particular farmers’ organisation, the BKU (Ekta Ugrahan) took some extra steps that must be appreciated. For example, in the first phase of the sit-in, they observed one day as ‘Human Rights Day’, and demanded release of all political social activists who are imprisoned with false allegations. Recently they conducted a weeks-long agitation-propaganda explaining to the Punjab toilers how imperialism is linked with these farm laws and why our struggle must be anti-imperialist. They staged a big workers-peasants united rally where more than two-hundred-thousand workers and peasants after weeks of preparation. The farm labourers’ union explained to the workers the need of workers-peasants unity in this and in the future struggles. They could show in some of their programmes that jawan-kisan unity is not just a slogan.

But sadly, and it is the most important point now, the states where the masses of peasants and workers are mainly under the domination of the parliamentary parties and not the so-called ‘independent’ farmers organisation, e.g., Bengal, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Assam, etc there those parties did not yet take concrete steps for organising masses towards anti-Farm-Acts movement like Punjab and Haryana. They issued only statements in the media. CPIM chief even wrote in his article to make new farm laws after repealing these ones after discussing, even with concerned corporate capitalists! (For example, you may see this.) It is really a matter of shame for those once connected with revolutionary movement in Bengal that they could also not stir the masses by agitation-propaganda, Bengal did not see any move like boycotting Adani-Ambani shops/pumps including boycotting Ambani’s or Reliance’s JIO as farmers in Punjab did as token gestures against corporatisation of agriculture, the laws, and steps taken by Adani, Ambani etc capitalists. Even Tata is perhaps now eager to take on ‘Big Baskets’ that supply not only grocery products but also fish, meat and etc at doorsteps. The big ‘Brigade Meeting’ on Feb 28 by the alliance of CPIM etc Left parties with Indian National Congress and a new outfit named ISF led by a Pirzada did not raise or emphasise the slogan of repealing the three anti-people farm laws! They did/could not say that if voted to govt. power they would never implement those laws in WB (agriculture being a state subject)!

The onus is now on communist revolutionaries and there are toiling people who want to fight, who are disenchanted with the parliamentary parties. Election results will not and cannot show this. We must clarify to thousands of toiling masses what the three farm laws really mean and what would be the consequences – it is not impossible to do – we must try to do as much as we can. We are to clarify why this matters more than all the electoral speeches, promises and jibes of all parliamentary parties. Why this election campaign cannot evade the birding questions of farm laws and labour laws. We must try to explain that no-vote-to-BJP is NOT the ONLY important slogan now, but there should be agitations by the toiling masses against the farm laws, and these are also very important now – these farm laws and labour laws are concrete deeds of the BJP led govt. against the toilers and for the interest of desi and foreign capitalists We must tell the masses why toiling masses should try to design steps, however small, against these farm laws, why toiling people should not put any faith in parliamentary parties.

There is another encouraging sign: We are seeing many environmental activists are up in arms over the farm laws. It started not from the Greta tweet as the media reported. Much back, several environmental activists and organisations, who were against the severe damage caused by the imperialist-sponsored Green revolution, studied the farm laws and saw in those again an attempt to develop the Indian part of global-food-production chain led by the big imperialist multinational corporate bodies and their Indian counterparts. They understood how anti people and anti nature will be the effects of these laws. They have already started to take programs on their own to conduct agitation-propaganda among the toiling people and also among the intelligentsia. We need to cooperate as much as possible keeping in mind many constraints (like disenchantment of many environmentalists regarding practices of ‘communist countries’ etc). At this moment, joining forces against the farm laws may be given priority.

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Sandeep Banerjee is an activist who writes on political and socioeconomic issues and also on environmental issues. Some of his articles are published in Frontier Weekly. He lives in West Bengal, India. Presently he is a research worker. He can be reached at [email protected]

Featured image: A View of Workers Farmers Rally on Feb 23 at Barnala (Countercurrents)